When scouts and talent evaluators look at this draft, the recurring theme is that of clusters. Scouts are generally of an opinion that there's a cluster of six elite prospects at the top of the draft, headed by
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and then a drop to another tier of 6-8 solid prospects. Those appear to be the obvious difference-makers in this year's crop.
Below that grouping, at least 30 prospects -- and maybe as many 50 -- are at least in the conversation for slots in the first round.
"It might look like a team at 13 or 14 might feel cheated, but there are a couple of wild cards," one scouting director said this week.
The biggest curveball would be if a team takes a stab at one of the top three goalie prospects --
John Gibson,
Christopher Gibson and
Samu Perhonen -- early in the draft. As of now, that's unexpected since this is generally thought to be a weaker crop of netminders than last year, when Jack Campbell cracked the top tier (No. 11). Still, it could happen if a team feels it has a glaring weakness in the crease.
The second twist would be if a team goes way off the board. The scouting director pointed to the
Los Angeles Kings' selecting Thomas Hickey No. 4 overall in 2007 as a textbook example. But with the talent at the upper reaches of this draft, that doesn't seem too likely. "It's hard to see that first group breaking up, unless a team feels strongly about a kid who's not already ranked No. 7 to 14 on most lists," the director adds. "What I can tell you is that teams from outside the top 10 are out there trying to figure out a way to trade up ... trying to turn multiple picks into one higher pick."
There's already rumor of
Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke trying to package his two picks in the late first round to move up. The
Phoenix Coyotes may be trying to do the same. Such moves could change the shape of the first round, but for now, with one week remaining until the 2011 NHL draft, here's how it figures to shake out.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/edm/edmonton-oilersEdmonton Oilers
[/h6]
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Red Deer (WHL)
The playmaking center who could service
Taylor Hall and
Jordan Eberle and the rest. Some scouts say he's not physically ready to play at the next level -- though athletic, he's truly scrawny. Then again, so was
http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/_/id/3735/patrick-kanePatrick Kane. Hockey sense and anticipation will keep him out of harm's way.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/col/colorado AvalancheColorado Avalanche[/h6]
Adam Larsson, D, Skelleftea (Sweden)
A blueliner who could set the table for
Matt Duchene and an emerging corps of young forwards. He went into the season with almost unfair expectations and didn't meet them. The next round of unfair expectations begins in the fall. All he'd have to do is help the Avalanche get back into the playoffs.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/fla/florida-panthersFlorida Panthers[/h6]
Jonathan Huberdeau, C, Saint John (QMJHL)
The versatile forward will become the go-to guy on a first line. Florida has shown a lot of patience with its prospect development, but Huberdeau would test that patience with a good camp. He might be best served with a few games in the NHL this fall, just to get a feel for the game at the next level, and then a return to junior for the balance of the season.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/nj/new-jersey-devilsNew Jersey Devils[/h6]
Ryan Strome, C, Niagara (OHL)
Strome is the prospect who has made the greatest strides over the course of the past year. It would be a surprise if he lands in the NHL next fall, but, then again, last summer it would have been a shock if someone told you that he'd end up in the top five of this draft.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/nyi/new-york-islandersNew York Islanders[/h6]
Sean Couturier, C, Drummondville (QMJHL)
The Islanders need a big center who might enable
John Tavares to move to the wing. Given his late birthday, Couturier has absolutely nothing to prove by going back to junior -- it might end up being counterproductive (as it was with
Jason Spezza). Of all the lottery teams, though, the Isles are the most likely to move him quickly and challenge him.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/ott/ottawa-senatorshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/ott/ottawa-senatorsOttawa Senators[/h6]
Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Kitchener (OHL)
This reliable winger/leader can be the needed successor to
Daniel Alfredsson. The Sens have a high Tre Kroner quotient throughout the organization -- you could make the case that three-quarters of their strongest assets are Swedes.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-thrashershttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/atl/atlanta-thrashersWinnipeg[/h6]
Mika Zibanejad, C, Djurgarden (Sweden-Jr.)
The center who could eventually form a solid top-of-the-roster combination with Alex Burmistrov. If Zibanejad goes here, how his situation is handled would give everyone an indication of the new general manager's modus operandi. Don Waddell and, briefly, Rick Dudley were pretty aggressive in throwing their elite picks into the lineup. Zibanejad is on the cusp of readiness.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/cls/columbus-blue-jacketshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/cbj/columbus-blue-jacketsColumbus Blue Jackets[/h6]
Sven Baertschi, LW, Portland (WHL)
A creative forward who projects to be the difference-maker that
Nikita Filatov was supposed to be. It seems that the Blue Jackets land offensive players in this range (
Derick Brassard,
Jakub Voracek, Filatov) who tease with talent but fall short of full delivery. Down the line, Baertschi would get to play with Portland teammate Ryan Johansen, Columbus' shrewd first-rounder last June.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/bos/boston-bruinshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/bos/boston-bruinsBoston Bruins (from Toronto)[/h6]
Nathan Beaulieu, D, Saint John (QMJHL)
A defenseman who makes the dynamic first pass to set the offense in motion, Beaulieu can give the Bruins that quick transition and puck-handling that
Tomas Kaberle was supposed to give them. This No. 9 pick is the second first-rounder from the Toronto Maple Leafs from the Phil Kessel trade. Bonus value: Beaulieu shows more nasty in a game than Kaberle has over his entire career.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-wildhttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/min/minnesota-wildMinnesota Wild[/h6]
Ryan Murphy, D, Kitchener, (OHL)
A rover who could be the catalyst for a struggling attack. There will be naysayers who'll float the idea that he's just too small. Is he any smaller than
Brian Rafalski was at the same stage?
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/col/colorado-avalancheColorado Avalanche (from. St. Louis)[/h6]
Tyler Biggs, RW, U.S. National Team Development Program
The name fits him well as he's a big winger to play beside Duchene on the first line, in time. If the Avalanche tap Huberdeau rather than Larsson at No. 2, then a D prospect here like Hamilton or Beaulieu (but not Murphy) is in the mix.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/car/carolina-hurricaneshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/car/carolina-hurricanesCarolina Hurricanes[/h6]
Dougie Hamilton, D, Niagara (OHL)
He has the high-end talent to head up a deep corps of blueline prospects. Looks a lot like a couple of the defensemen the Hurricanes drafted in the second-round last year, but he's an upgrade on the skills side.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/cgy/calgary-flameshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/cgy/calgary-flamesCalgary Flames[/h6]
Mark Scheifele, C, Barrie Colts (OHL)
In Scheifele, the Flames would get the first-line center the franchise has been in search of since its last trip to the finals. Scouts are high on Scheifele's character, playing hard for a weak team last season. The Flames might be tempted to move him into the lineup fast, but next season would be too fast.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/dal/dallas-starshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/dal/dallas-starsDallas Stars[/h6]
Jamieson Oleksiak, D, Northeastern (NCAA)
A blueliner who will scare opposing wingers when they come down his side of the ice. Oleksiak says that he's going back to Northeastern, and if he's not flexible on that he might slide down the board somewhat. Stock was buoyed by an impressive combine and good interviews.
[h6]
New York Rangers[/h6]
Jonathan Miller, C, U.S. National Team Development Program
The playmaking center who can be
Chris Drury now that Chris Drury can't anymore. From the midterm, Miller fell 10 slots to No. 23 on Central Scouting Services' final list, but scouts say that a good performance at the world Under-18s gave his stock a boost. The Rangers have drafted heavily on D over the last few years and now need a reload up front. Miller might be ready for delivery as soon as the fall of 2012 after a single season at North Dakota.
[h6]
Buffalo Sabres[/h6]
Mark McNeill,C, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL)
A tough center who will work up from the third line and settle into a second-line role. McNeill would work well with bruising 2009 first-rounder Zack Kassian, forming a sort of poor man's Legion of Doom. He'd make the Sabres tougher to play against, which has to be something that Darcy Regier is striving for.
[h6]
Montreal Canadiens[/h6]
Jonas Brodin, D, Farjestad (Sweden)
The smooth puck-handler who will be needed if/when
Andrei Markov isn't there. Les Habitants showed a lot of patience with P.K. Subban -- a lot of teams would have had Subban in their lineup a year before Montreal gave him a taste. Brodin will likely be back in Sweden next year and then put in a full year in the AHL.
[h6]
Chicago Blackhawks[/h6]
Nicklas Jensen, RW, Oshawa (OHL)
A great skater who'll stretch defenses when he comes down the wing. Teams are projecting significant growth in Jensen's game, based on the belief that he'll fare better after this year's experience playing in North America.
[h6]
Edmonton Oilers (from Los Angeles)[/h6]
Connor Murphy, C, U.S. National Team Development Program
A high-risk, high-reward prospect that only a team with two high picks can afford. Sees his game as "a smart defensive defenseman," which is exactly what his father, Gord, was for a lot of years in the NHL. No offense to Gord, but Connor has more offensive upside and a more dynamic game. Added points for growing up around NHL teams and knowledge of the pro routine. He will be at Miami University next season, but if he stays healthy, he could be in Edmonton in the fall of 2012.
[h6]
Phoenix Coyotes[/h6]
Joel Armia, RW, Assat (Finland)
A big winger who'll create space for a first-line center. It's a tough call for the drafting team on whether he should be brought over this fall. There doesn't seem to be much sense finding him a slot in major junior -- that would be a step back from what he's playing in Finland. Physically, he's ready to play North American pro, but the NHL is pro-plus.
[h6]Ottawa (from Nashville)[/h6]
Tomas Jurco, RW, Saint John (QMJHL)
He's a skilled winger who can create and finish chances on his own. If Jurco picks up where he left off at the Memorial Cup, he'll make it hard for the Senators to send him back to Saint John. But really, he'd be best served by another year with a strong junior club (and a great junior coach) rather than fall in with a rebuilding program in Ottawa.
[h6]
Anaheim Ducks[/h6]
Ty Rattie, RW, Portland (WHL)
The rink rat who'll bring moxie to the second line after a pro apprenticeship. Rattie will be back in Portland, and it will be interesting to see who's left there with him (
Nino Niederreiter, Ryan Johansen and maybe Sven Baertschi will be in the NHL). Physically, he's not ready for prime time. His hockey sense, though, would put him in the 80th percentile of pros, at a minimum.
[h6]
Pittsburgh Penguins[/h6]
Matt Puempel, LW, Peterborough (OHL)
A soft-handed, seeing-eye winger who'll complement a dynamic center. Hip surgery means that any rush into an NHL lineup would be highly risky. He might be best served by being traded out of a struggling program in Peterborough and over to a program making a championship push (like his hometown Windsor Spitfires).
[h6]
Detroit Red Wings[/h6]
Vladislav Namestnikov, C, London (OHL)
He'll bring back memories of
Igor Larionov. The team that drafts Namestnikov can be confident that he'll get the highest quality of development playing for the London Knights, who did a good job with Patrick Kane,
John Carlson and
Corey Perry. But can they be as confident that Namestnikov will sign?
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/tor/toronto-maple-leafsToronto Maple Leafs (from Philadelphia)[/h6]
Boone Jenner, C, Oshawa (OHL)
A two-way center who can work his way from the third and fourth lines into the top half of the roster. Brian Burke is in for the long haul and Jenner likely wouldn't be rushed. He'll be back in junior for two full years and in the AHL for a season before he gets a serious sniff at the NHL roster. One caveat here: Burke will almost certainly try to trade up with his picks -- does he bundle these two picks for one in the top 12? Maybe. Top six, though, is the destination.
[h6]
Washington Capitals[/h6]
Phillip Danault, C, Victoriaville (QMJHL)
A willing center who would bring needed hockey sense and reliability to a ridiculously skilled lineup. With an abundance of talent in the pipeline, Washington could wait for Danault to fill out. Although the "show" is Ovie, the real story in Washington is the organization. Picks like Evgeny Kuznetsov, Stanislav Galiev, Dmitri Orlov and
John Carlson proved to be golden. Danault is in the mold of another dynamic Caps find, Cody Eakin. You can't have enough of those guys.
[h6]
Tampa Bay Lightning[/h6]
Zach Phillips, C, Saint John (QMJHL)
He's a savvy center whose average skating won't be noticed with swift surrounding talent. Having him play beside Brett Connolly down the line seems like a good idea. Question: Will he skate well enough to take a third-line center role to break into the league? Probably not, which might delay his arrival. If he's willing to move to the wing, that could open the door for him.
[h6]
San Jose Sharks[/h6]
Duncan Siemens, D, Saskatoon (WHL)
A tough defenseman is needed for wars against the Western Conference elite. The Sharks sometimes move quickly with getting prospects into their NHL lineup. Siemens is physically close to ready to make the jump, but arrival in 2012 would be a little hasty.
[h6]
http://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/van/vancouver-canuckshttp://espn.go.com/nhl/team/_/name/van/vancouver-canucksVancouver Canucks[/h6]
Scott Mayfield, D, Youngstown (USHL)
He'd infuse youth into a blue line that will be undergoing generational change. By the time Mayfield lands on the coast (likely 2013),
http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/_/id/815/sami-saloSami Salo will be gone (maybe long gone).
Andrew Alberts,
Kevin Bieksa,
Dan Hamhuis and
Keith Ballard will be 30-somethings on the backside of their careers.
Chris Tanev is a find and a keeper, but the Canucks need more young blood on the blue line.
[h6]Toronto (from Boston)[/h6]
Stuart Percy, D, Mississauga St. Michael's (OHL)
He'll consistently beat the forecheck. When Percy is ready,
Luke Schenn will be on the Toronto blueline, and so will 2009 second-rounder Jesse Blacker and Jake Gardiner, a former first-rounder picked up in a trade from Anaheim. Percy would be a good fit in this group. Their games contrast and complement: Schenn and Blacker are tough-to-play-against hard rocks, and Gardiner features high-end skills and skating.