Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[CP1708]

PITTSBURGH – No longer do you need to wonder if Chicago Cubs prospect Addison Russell is going to make his major league debut this year -- that question is so March -- it’s just a matter of when.

The usually honest Joe Maddon didn’t dissuade anyone from thinking Russell is next up on the prospect train from Triple-A Iowa, especially now that he’s seeing time at second base. It just so happens the Cubs have a huge hole at that position, at least offensively. According to ESPN Stats and Information, Cubs second basemen rank 29th in baseball with a .135 batting average and dead last with a .355 OPS going into Monday night's game against the Pittsburgh Pirates.

“You never know where the need is going to be on the major league level,” Maddon said before the game. “(We’re) being a little bit more proactive regarding prepping him for a need that might be open here.”

After Javier Baez was sent to the minors and subsequently went on bereavement leave, the Cubs were left with a choice between Tommy La Stella, Arismendy Alcantara and spring invitee Jonathan Herrera. La Stella is hurt and -- if you can believe it -- Maddon likes the journeyman Herrera’s game the best right now.

“He’s been playing pretty well, I think,” Maddon said. “You just don’t look at his batting average. A lot of good at-bats. He’s playing pretty really well at second base. I just think he’s playing pretty well, that’s why he’s getting the preponderance of the starts right now.”

But “pretty well” is a relative phrase at this point. Herrera is hitting only .182, but that’s still better than Alcantara’s .077.

“I’m swinging at bad pitches,” Alcantara said Monday. “I have to have better selection at home plate.”

Herrera said this is a good opportunity for him.

“I’ve been in this situation before in my career,” he said. “I just try to do the little things and play my best.”

Some thought earning a ninth-inning game-winning hit against Cincinnati recently might get Alcantara moving in the right direction. It didn’t. Meanwhile, Russell is hitting .300 at Triple-A after breaking up former Cub Scott Baker’s perfect game with a single in the final inning of a doubleheader on Monday afternoon. And he was electric during spring training, both with his bat and his glove.

“You think his bat may be ready to play, you have to get him a position to play,” Maddon said. “You could surmise it that Russell might do that (come up to play second) but it’s not a lock. It’s a matter of expanding his infield horizons.”

Like any team, the Cubs never like to promote a player only to demote him later, so it might simply be too early to make a switch now. Remember, Russell had only 258 at-bats in the minors last season due to an injury. A couple of hot games, and Herrera’s or Alcantara’s numbers could look better as well.

But the writing is on the wall. Russell is coming, most likely as soon as he gets a better feel for playing second base. Like most observers, Maddon believes learning how to turn a double play from there instead of shortstop is the biggest adjustment for a newbie at second. But it’s not the only one.

“I think the final point people don’t consider is the road map,” Maddon explained. “The GPS. Where am I supposed to be when things happen?”

Maddon cited Alex Rodriguez wondering the same thing while playing first base for the Yankees. The manager praised those on his current roster -- including Herrera and Alcantara -- on some of the finer points of the game, such as baserunning and having that GPS in the field. But if there is any prospect who has the instincts to deal with a position change quickly, it’s Russell. He’s everything a manager wants in a young player.

And he could be here soon.

Smoke, fire, etc etc.....

 

[CP1708]

you would be selling low on him probably but i wonder if baez gets traded at some point.

I've always had him as the #1 most likely to get dealt. Bryant and Russell seem to be 100% safe bets to survive. Castro/Rizzo are proven. Soler "looks" like a safe bet as a keeper.

That always left Baez, imo. He seems good enough to tantalize, but risky enough to pull the trigger if something emerges.


But, a 22 year old that can play SS/2B and hit with a ton of power will always be in demand, just a matter of what they want for him, and what the other team has to offer.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

he's got a ton of power just those K's. i'd like to see him put it together with the cubs tho.

soler batting second tonight. i like that.

 

[CP1708]

Welp.....

Kris Bryant suddenly batting .429 after that 0-4 start. 3 hits and a walk tonight.
Soler with 4 hits, including pulling a 100 mph heater for a double.

Arrieta gives up 1 run, 3 hits in the first, zero and 1 the next 6 innings. W.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

 

[arstyle27]

Addison coming to the show.

 

[CP1708]

I guess those articles were timed nicely.

 

[sportsjunkie]

Kris Bryant finding his groove and Jorge Soler is on a 7 game hit streak. He went 4-5 yesterday.. Addison Russell is being called to play 2B tonight. Whew!!!!!!! These kids will be around for along time. Boy Wonder Theo Strikes again.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i love the way jorge soler's is hitting. just gotta keep being selective and avoid too many k's.

 

[sportsjunkie]

i love the way jorge soler's is hitting. just gotta keep being selective and avoid too many k's.

Soler has the best plate patience out of all the young kids though.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

he's had a couple of at bats/games here and there where he gets a little over anxious at times. his future's great, just gotta keep those k's down. reminds me a little of puig and vladdy in a way.

 

[CP1708]

The Scouts And Stats Agree: Kris Bryant Is Going To Be Dope

By ROB ARTHUR

Even the messiah can strike out three times on his first day in the majors. Last Friday, Kris Bryant, the Cubs’ anointed savior, was called up from the minors after weeks of debate about whether he should’ve just started the season in the majors. There is an aura of myth to Bryant’s arrival, as though the stars have aligned to offer the Cubs a chance to fulfill a prophecy. Yet Bryant is still an untested prospect, and, as Cubs fans know too well, even the best prospects can fail to live up to expectations.

But Bryant really is special — he’s the rare prospect that has both scouts and stats in complete agreement. Because of the unique intersection of scouting know-how and minor league data, Bryant is likely to match the hype.

Let’s start with the stats. In this case, all we have to go by are projection systems, which take the minor league data of previous prospects and compare it with their MLB results to predict what up-and-coming players will accomplish. That’s no easy task — the minor league data is sparse, and performance is confounded by the effects of the league and the age differences between players.

In Bryant’s case, however, the projections are so high that there is little room for doubt. No matter whether you look at FanGraphs’ Steamer (.260/.333/.49 or Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA (.265/.356/.525), all the algorithms are in agreement in their preseason projections: Bryant is going to be a fantastic hitter.1 ESPN’s Dan Szymborski, who runs another algorithm called ZiPS, tweeted that Bryant’s is the best prediction he’s ever given to a prospect.

There’s no mystery as to how Bryant arrived at these projections — the guy hit between 60 percent and 120 percent better than average while in the minors, depending on the level. Still, Bryant’s projection is so extreme that at one point, the developers who run the projection systems became worried. In a mid-winter Twitter consultation, baseball projection system developers compared Bryant’s projections to make sure that they weren’t out of line. There was consensus: All of their independently developed algorithms were giving Bryant one of the top hitting lines in the majors.

Even so, not all prospects hit as well as their projections say they should. The computers, operating solely on minor league performance, can fail to notice fatal flaws in a hitter’s swing, flaws that can be exploited ruthlessly at the major league level. That’s partly why projection systems aren’t as good as scouts at predicting how prospects will perform in the major leagues. So, despite their depiction in “Moneyball,” scouts are an integral part of evaluating baseball players, and that goes double for prospects.

Scouts look at the shape of a hitter’s swing, if he can generate power, and how easily he adapts to a pitcher’s shifting tactics. Bryant’s ludicrous numbers in the minors were no guarantee that the scouts would love the tools he used to achieve those numbers.

The scouts are every bit as high on Bryant as the projections. He was ranked the No. 1 prospect in baseball for 2015 by venerable scouting organization Baseball America. FanGraphs also put him at No. 1, Baseball Prospectus put him at No. 5, and a host of others ranked him similarly. All publications praised his rare, top-notch, seemingly effortless power. As with the projection systems, a consensus quickly developed, and that consensus proclaimed Bryant the best prospect in baseball.

The highest-rated prospects of the past 25 years have tended to become great major leaguers — on average. Yet there are some notable busts, players who the scouts thought were destined for greatness but who ended up falling short. Orioles outfielder Delmon Young, for example, consistently rated among the best prospects in baseball four years in a row, only to turn in a disappointing, journeyman career. Projection systems aren’t immune to mistakes, either. Once upon a time, Eduardo Nunez was PECOTA’s favorite, but he’s since become better-known for hitting a preponderance of popups. There’s no foolproof way to tell how a player will develop or respond to the challenges of the major leagues.

Independently, then, each source has its share of errors. Often, the scouts will disagree with the predictions, or vice versa. Scouts might see future potential that never manifests in the majors. Or PECOTA will fail to consider a player’s unfixable weakness against major league competition.

But Bryant has the approval of both stats and scouts, which is why he’s so special. Using data on historical prospect rankings2 and PECOTA projections going back to 2004, I looked for players who received comparable acclaim from both PECOTA and the scouts. Here is a complete list of the players in my data set who received a consensus prospect ranking better than fifth and a PECOTA-projected OPS greater than the projected league average.


PLAYER AVERAGE PROSPECT RANK PROJECTED OPS CAREER WAR
Jay Bruce 1.1 .849 14.3
Matt Wieters 1.1 .941 13.6
Kris Bryant 1.7 .881 —
Jurickson Profar 1.7 .678 -0.1
Miguel Cabrera 2.0 .762 59.4
Jose Reyes 2.0 .723 36.2
David Wright 2.0 .835 49.7
Joe Mauer 2.2 .823 46.3
Evan Longoria 2.6 .799 40.0
B. J. Upton 3.0 .780 13.8


The names on this list combine for three MVP awards, 34 All-Star appearances and 273.2 wins above replacement3 (a statistic that measures the overall value of a player, combining his hitting, baserunning and defense). Bryant’s predicted OPS, relative to the league average, is higher than the comparable projections for all the players on the list before they entered the league.

Several of the above players are potential Hall of Famers (Miguel Cabrera, David Wright, Joe Mauer), while others have been merely very good (Jose Reyes, Jay Bruce). Notably, there’s not a true bust among them. Melvin Upton (formerly B. J.) isn’t a good hitter anymore, but he was excellent for the first six years of his career (just less than the seven years for which the Cubs will control Bryant).

A few of these players (such as Profar and Wieters) have fallen victim to injuries. This is the kind of problem that can end the career of any young player, no matter how bright his future might be. But Bryant has yet to suffer any serious injuries, whether in the minors or in college before that.4 To the extent that players can be injury prone, Bryant has so far shown no such inclination.

Bryant has won the acclaim of both the projections and the scouts. Rarely are the two in such resounding agreement. He is likely to be great, and while it may be too soon to be planning a parade, it’s not too early to begin envisioning a long period of Cubs offensive dominance led by Kris Bryant.

 

[CP1708]

Baseball Tonight @BBTN · 5h 5 hours ago
Since going 0-4 with 3 strikeouts in his MLB debut, @Cubs 3B Kris Bryant is 6-10 with 2 2B, 4 BB and 4 RBI.

He also has one hit by a pitch.

On base 11 times in his last 15 plate appearances.


Soler
Rizzo
Bryant
Castro
Russell

Just need Baez and Schwarber to come up, and the lineup of our dreams from 12 months ago will be complete.

 

[CP1708]

View media item 1501303
View media item 1501304

 

[CP1708]

Lineup tonight:

Fowler
Rizzo
Soler
Bryant
Castro
Denorfia
Castillo
Wood
Russell


If/when Russell leads off an inning, look at it, Russell, Fowler, Rizzo, Soler, Bryant, Castro. *chills*

And what's funny, the pitcher Travis Wood might be the best hitter in the lineup.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

i liked soler in that 2 hole. lineup looks promising though.

 

[GreenNGold89]

Best of luck Addison. Hope the kid kills it out there.

 

[CP1708]

ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo 16m16 minutes ago
Cubs’ infield: all 25/younger; first team in last 20 years to start infield of players 25/younger while at least 2 games over .500

Tommy Birch ‏@TommyBirch 11m11 minutes ago
Tsuyoshi Wada still a go for his second rehab start for the Iowa #Cubs tomorrow. #PCL #MiLB #MLBrehab

 

[pacmagic2002]

C CP1708 We should resurrect the NL Central thread since the Cubs may be contenders again very soon

 

[CP1708]

C CP1708 We should resurrect the NL Central thread since the Cubs may be contenders again very soon

There's not really anyone left.

WildK doesn’t really post anymore outside the CBB thread. Zo is gone. First Born is pretty much gone. Craftsy, W4L been LONG gone.

The only ones we really have left are you, me, DMX, and Arstyle27.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

Don't see how that was a strike to Soler but ok.

 

[CVO_RN95]

That strike to soler was something else. Kris Byrant is the truth.

 

[JLD1523]

Castro

 

[CP1708]

Starrrrrrrrllllliiiinnnnnn!!!!!!

 

[johnnyredstorm]

love the fight this team has