- Sep 7, 2011
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Neil Ramirez being hurt is a big blow. we need him
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CHICAGO -- Should Kris Bryant have been on the Opening Day roster? Or did the Cubs do the right thing by delaying his arrival, putting him in their uniform for an extra season through patience alone? Those questions have resounded around baseball for the last few weeks.
But how about this one? How great of a decision did Theo Epstein's scouting staff make when it went against conventional wisdom to draft Bryant in 2013?
Everyone expected the Cubs to take one of the two best college pitchers available with the second overall pick. But senior vice president of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod defied the mock drafts by taking the University of San Diego third baseman.
Bryant, the No. 2-ranked prospect in baseball who could begin his big league odyssey as early as Friday, projects as the homegrown perennial All-Star to lead Joe Maddon's team toward the World Series. Sure, a lot can still go wrong, it always can, but let's celebrate how Bryant came to be a Cub.
Throughout the process, conventional wisdom ranked Bryant behind Stanford's Mark Appel and Oklahoma's Jonathan Gray, and at one point it wasn't clear if he would go ahead of North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran or the two top high school hitters, Clint Frazier and Austin Meadows.
Locking in on Bryant was perhaps the biggest of a series of very smart, incredibly well-researched decisions that have changed the outlook for a franchise that hasn't won a World Series since 1908.
McLeod admits that there were major questions about Bryant's "hit tool" when the organization held its January meetings. And because of that, Bryant was "on the outside looking in" in regards to the Cubs' highest Draft pick since they took Mark Prior second overall in 2001.
McLeod, a San Diego native, has known USD coach Rich Hill forever, and Hill did everything he could to sell Bryant's potential.
"Rich Hill's going to shoot straight with me," McLeod said. "He couldn't speak more highly of a player and a person you would potentially bring into an organization, in terms of a teammate, the work ethic, all of those things."
But Bryant had left some scouts with questions when he hit .223 for the Chatham Anglers in the Cape Cod League in 2011, after his freshman year at USD. Scouts loved his raw power and athleticism, but they worried about his high strikeout totals.
Those questions were gradually answered throughout a junior season in which Bryant hit .329 with an NCAA-leading 31 home runs in 62 games -- a really big number given how the college bat has been toned down through the years -- and had 50 percent more walks than strikeouts (66-44). When general manager Jed Hoyer and McLeod met with Bryant during the West Coast Conference tournament in Stockton, Calif., in late May, they began to think that they might really select Bryant ahead of Appel and Gray.
"He was so impressive," McLeod said. "He came down by himself and sat down for about 45 minutes. By that point, we'd already met with Jon Gray and Mark Appel. We felt like Kris, of the three, was just someone who was probably the most equipped to step into this type of market and to handle the expectations of being the No. 2 overall pick. When we combined all those things, with the evaluation of the player, certainly our [opinion] was higher than it was in January, during those Draft meetings."
McLeod recalls the conversations he had with cross-checker Sam Hughes as a turning point in steering the Cubs toward Bryant. The Atlanta-based scout traveled to watch the San Diego Toreros in a weekend tournament at North Carolina-Wilmington in early March, and Hughes saw Bryant go 6-for-12 with two home runs, two doubles, three walks and only one strikeout while moving between center field and third base.
"Sammy really pounded the table after he saw [Bryant]," McLeod said. "He said, 'This guy really needs to be on our radar screen.' We kept running back in [to see Bryant] … and he just exploded that year."
Hughes, the son of Red Sox special assistant Gary Hughes, said Bryant had been only "vaguely" under consideration for the second pick at the start of the season. To the degree that the Cubs had a list, they had him even with or below the top high school hitters, Frazier and Meadows.
Hughes went to see Frazier and Meadows right after he had seen Bryant.
"I saw those kids on back-to-back days," Hughes said. "That's where it started getting clear to me. I'm supposed to like these two high school hitters better than Kris, and I don't -- by a long shot. "
Hughes says that while McLeod credits him for elevating Bryant's stock, it took a group effort for Bryant to be evaluated. Alex Lontoya, the Cubs' area scout in Southern California, had done lots of legwork before Hughes and the others, including then-scouting director [and current farm director] Jaron Madison, began to converge on the Toreros' games. Hughes was in San Diego for Bryant's three-homer game against BYU in mid-March.
There was extreme intrigue entering Draft night. The Astros had the first pick, followed by the Cubs and the Rockies. Everyone expected Appel, Bryant and Gray to be the top three picks, but there was little consensus on how they would fall.
All of the prominent mock drafts, including MLB.com Jonathan Mayo's, had the Cubs taking whichever college arm the Astros did not take -- Appel or Gray -- with Bryant falling to the Rockies. There had been few leaks from within the Draft rooms of the Astros and the Cubs, so teams were forced to guess.
The Cubs were in regular contact with the representatives of all three college stars throughout Draft day. At one point, the Rockies thought that Bryant would fall to them, because Epstein appeared to be having late talks with Gray's representatives.
But in the end, the Cubs decided they couldn't pass on Bryant, because of their belief that pitching has become easier to find than impact bats.
"I'd rather go with the volume approach in terms of pitching," McLeod said. "History tells us pitching comes from all different parts of the Draft."
McLeod said the Cubs were worried the Astros might take Bryant.
"We had no idea what they doing," McLeod said. "We had to be prepared for all different outcomes. … Until we heard Mark Appel's name called [by the Astros], we didn't know. We knew we were prepared and ready with our process, and felt good about the player we were going to get, and we were thrilled it was Kris Bryant."
Some people claim the Cubs would have taken Appel if the Astros had selected Gray, leaving both Bryant and Appel on the board. McLeod said it's not true, that Appel was a consideration at No. 2 only if Bryant had been off the board.
But Hughes remembers McLeod, Epstein, Hoyer and Madison sweating out the choice of Bryant over Gray for as long as they were allowed.
"We debated and hashed out those three guys," Hughes said. "We were in Chicago for 10 days, 11 days prior to the Draft. We spent a lot of time [debating it] during that entire 11 days, right up until MLB said they needed our pick. It went right up to the last second."
Fast forward a little bit and time's almost up on wondering how good Bryant will be.
The unveiling draws near.
The Cubs and Rangers went over their pools to a lesser degree, back when some teams hadn’t considered that as a strategy and before the Yankees made headlines by taking that strategy to it’s logical extreme last year. Both teams are coming off the one-year ban (the penalty was lighter two years ago) on signings over $250,000, and both are expected to spend heavily.
Cubs: The Cubs have been tied to the most players during this process and are believed to have agreements with a number of players that should easily send them over their bonus pool. Sources have indicated that these are the deals the Cubs have in place:
1. Aramis Ademan, SS, Dominican, $2 million Video: He’s only 5’10/150, but is a slick fielder with very quick hands and should be able to stick at shortstop, with advanced feel for contact and an active, Ichiro-like cut from the left side.
2. Christopher Martinez, 3B, Dominican, $1.5 million Video: He has solid average raw power and arm strength along with above average bat speed and some looseness at the plate. He also has the hands to play in the infield, though his feet are a little slow at this point.
3. Yonathan Perlaza, SS, Venezuelan, $1.2 million Video: Stout 5’8/175 infielder has a chance to stick at shortstop and is an average runner with below average power, but has a smooth cut that produces among the most hard contact in games in this class.
4. Miguel Amaya, C, Panama, $1.2 million: 6’0/160 lefty hitter has an smooth swing, hits it to all fields with some pop and has the tools to be at least an average catcher.
5. Anderson Amarista, RHP, Venezuela, $1 million Video: 6’0/178 righty sat 85-87 mph when I saw him in February, but has projection and a clean arm, normally sits a few ticks higher, has hit 91 mph and already flashes a solid average curveball
6. Yunior Perez, RHP, Dominican: $650,000: 6’3/175 righty is loose, has a clean arm, projection and sat 90-93 mph when I saw him for a few innings in February. That said, the curveball is below average and I haven’t seen him throw a changeup at all, so he’s still in the early stages.
7. Luis Diaz, SS, Dominican: $350,000: 5’9/155 infielder is a plus runner with a chance to stick at shortstop and below average power, but good feel to hit from the right side.
As I mentioned yesterday, these numbers may be a bit different than the final bonuses and things can still happen, like deals falling apart late for various reasons. I heard about Martinez and Amarista pretty recently and heard the other five players over a month ago. These numbers add up to $7.9 million and the Cubs pool is a little over $3.2 million, meaning they can make trades to boost their pool to just under $5 million, so it appears they are set to go over this year. Scouts think Perez and Diaz, who have the same trainer (Franklin Ferriera), are both signed at nice values while the others are somewhere close to market value.
No, it wasn't. There were plenty of other **** in that game that lost it for them. I can't stand Cubs fans using that as an excuse.
Not his fault at all
Brett Taylor
@BleacherNation
Kris Bryant's first game at short-season Boise in 2013 was an 0-5 night with 5 Ks. 17 games later, he had an OPS over 1.100.
I hope we do as well. I want the Cubs to get a win streak going, last few games have been back and forth. Anybody going to the Cubs vs. Pirates the 27th?Bryant hit his first double today.nice. Jon Lester gotta get his act together. i expect us to sweep the Pirates.
Before the 2015 season started, the Chicago Cubs mentioned that shortstop prospect Addison Russell would see some time at second base eventually. The implication was that he might flip flop with Javier Baez at short, increasing/preserving each of their versatility, and opening up future paths for each player.
On Friday, Russell started playing second base, and I wrote this: “I don’t want you to assume that the Russell move tonight is anything more than just working on his versatility – as the Cubs indicated was coming – but it’s something to watch. If, of course, Russell is playing second base for the I-Cubs virtually every day over the next 10 days? Well, then, that might be another story.”
Well, it might be another story.
Indeed, despite Iowa playing only a couple games since Friday, we know that Russell at second base is now a regular thing going forward. That’s because his manager, Marty Pevey, told Tommy Birch that Russell is a “full-time second baseman right now,” even if his abilities are that of a big-league-caliber shortstop. Further, Pevey today told Birch that Russell will continue playing second “until I’m told for him not to play second.”
In other words, Russell is now Iowa’s regular, full-time, starting second baseman, which was an organizational decision. That’s probably pretty meaningful.
If Russell were going to spend most of this season at AAA Iowa, with an eye toward a big league debut in, say, August or September, or even early next year, he’d still be playing shortstop. That’s not inside information, mind you. I’m just telling you what I can discern from the situation. There would be no reason to move Russell, in mid-April, full-time to second base – where there’s a glaring opening on the big league team – unless there was a possibility that he’s coming. Soon.
Whether this was always the plan or not for Russell, let’s consider some things:
Russell looked very good in Spring Training. He looked mature, even at just 21. He looked smooth in the field, and he looked calm at the plate. When he was sent down, even Joe Maddon was at a loss for what to tell him to focus on before being up in the big leagues.
Javier Baez did not win the big league second base job, and was sent to AAA Iowa to continue working on some significant changes to his approach at the plate. That was never likely to be two or three-week thing, and instead was probably more like a one or two-month thing. Then, sadly, Baez’s sister passed away, and he has been on the bereavement list since the start of the Iowa Cubs’ season. No one can know what Baez is going through, and no one should tell him how to grieve. Instead, I point this out solely to note that it’s unlikely that Baez will be in a position to come up and lock down the second base job any time soon.
Tommy La Stella probably would have been getting the bulk of starts at second base right now – and maybe even showing that he could be a quality regular there for the 2015 season – but he hurt his side, and is on the disabled list.
Arismendy Alcantara is having some serious trouble at the plate in the early going, and has already been relegated to a non-starting utility role.
Jonathan Herrera does some things well for a 30-year-old utility man, but a starting second baseman on a team with playoff aspirations, he is not.
Add that all together, and you get a recipe for Russell to get a taste of the big leagues very soon. Again, I’m absolutely speculating on nothing more than the above, together with Russell’s move to second base at Iowa, but Russell coming up even as soon as late this week would not shock me.
Pre-season projections indicated that Russell could be a contributor at the big league level as soon as this year, and with the Cubs in that window where marginal wins are extremely valuable, it makes sense to get Russell up as soon as possible (assuming the Cubs believe he is ready, developmentally-speaking).
There are no real service time considerations with Russell – the extra year of control would already have been secured – and there’s no reason to be worried about Super Two, because Russell could make a real impact between now and mid-June. Super Two status is exclusively about money – the player gets a fourth crack at arbitration – and I really don’t see this front office risking months’ worth of critical games this year in the hopes of saving a few million dollars six years down the road.
So, again I say: if the front office believes Russell is ready to contribute at the big league level right now, then there’s very little reason he wouldn’t be up and starting at second base very soon. He may need some more time there at Iowa before that happens – maybe even a couple weeks playing second base – but it appears to be on the radar.
Add to all of that Cubs GM Jed Hoyer, speaking on 670 the Score just a few minutes ago, mentioning that Russell was moved to second at AAA Iowa to give the Cubs “some optionality” given how things have been at second so far this year in the big leagues, and given how well Starlin Castro has been playing at shortstop. Hoyer didn’t offer up any kind of timeline, but he didn’t squash the idea that Russell could be the Cubs’ big league second baseman at some point in the near future.
As for what happens to Baez, Alcantara, and La Stella from there, you cross that bridge when you have to. Baez can play regular shortstop, which could be good for his value going forward. Alcantara could head back to Iowa and work on his swing while playing second base and in the outfield. La Stella could transition into a utility role, which might be where he provides the Cubs the most value anyway.
The Cubs are on the road through next Sunday, April 26. If the Cubs wish to debut Russell on the road, and it doesn’t come during this trip, then, we’d be looking at the week of May 4, when the Cubs head to St. Louis and then Milwaukee.
For now, Russell is hitting .297/.308/.432 through 9 games at AAA Iowa.