Who should teams trade for?
First, the bad news: I'm not sure we're going to have as many trades this year as you might have hoped. The Magic are unlikely to move Dwight Howard, the Suns are reluctant to move Steve Nash and virtually every front office exec I've talked to has described things as more quiet than usual.
With all that said, we still have nine days until the trade deadline, and veritable torrents of water can go under the bridge between now and then. Obviously, Howard and Nash remain the focal points, but today I wanted to dig a little deeper.
There's a second category of trades that a few teams specialize in, and it's one that's especially useful for teams trying to fill out a roster or rebuilding squads looking to build their talent base. I call it "body snatching," but the big-picture idea is to grab a promising player who has fallen out of favor with his current team. Often these players are available as throw-ins to a larger trade, and can represent some great value.
Take Portland for instance. Everybody knows the Blazers are looking at assorted deals, especially for point guards, and would move valuable pieces to get them. And everybody, obviously, will ask for Nic Batum first. But what of Luke Babbitt and Elliot Williams? Those are two other promising players who have gotten very little run in Portland, and for that reason they might be had cheaply. Babbitt hasn't done jack in the NBA but put up huge numbers in the D-League; most players who do that eventually become respectable pros.
As for Williams, the 22-year-old guard has just played some brief snippets this year after missing all of last season, but looked quite capable in his limited cameos. A scoring, slashing wing, he's a useful source of bench scoring on the right team.
Those are two guys I'd be looking at if I were cutting a deal. Let me introduce you to a few other names that might make sense:
Robin Lopez: Aside from all the Nash business, Phoenix is looking to dump its bad contracts. One option for a team dealing with the Suns is to ask for Lopez as the price of taking on a Hakim Warrick or a Josh Childress. From Phoenix's perspective it makes some sense too, as Marcin Gortat has taken over as the starting center and the Suns could make Channing Frye a fulltime backup 5 -- the spot where he's always played best.
As a 23-year-old 7-footer Lopez obviously has some value; he may not be the league's most mobile big man but he plays hard and scores around the basket. The lone drawback is that the team acquiring him also needs to pay him; he's a restricted free agent after the season.
Chase Budinger and Marcus Morris: Houston is heavily in the hunt for star talent, and these two would be near the top of my list if I were dealing with the Rockets. Budinger has fallen out of favor because of his defensive shortcomings -- it's very difficult to pair him on the wings with Kevin Martin, especially since they don't exactly have Bill Russell playing behind them -- but he can score and has arguably the best contract in the league ($885K next season). Morris was the 14th overall pick and thrashed the D-League during a brief stint down there, but has played only 19 minutes for the parent club after second-round pick Chandler Parsons beat him out.
Austin Daye: The background stuff is all good -- Daye is 23, under contract for a reasonable $2.9 million for next season and 6-11 with skill. There's just the little matter of his shooting 30.1 percent this season, which has caused him to fall out of Detroit's rotation entirely. I can't just dismiss a 400-minute sample with a 6.67 PER; on the other hand, he was a viable rotation player in his first two seasons, and I have to think the Pistons' glut of combo-forward types has made it more difficult for him to gain traction. A change of scenery might be good for everybody.
Jordan Farmar: I've always been intrigued by Farmar's talent but he seemed to be heading nowhere fast. This year he's finally figured things out, it seems, averaging 19.5 points per 40 minutes and blowing away his career best in true shooting percentage at 60.0. Unfortunately, he's also backing up Deron Williams and would be better served by going someplace where he could start.
He's still just 25 and has a favorable contract, although he may opt out of it and become a free agent; if so, keep an eye on him as an under-the-radar free agent. In the meantime, it's worth investigating if he can be had as a rider to any blockbuster deal involving the Nets and an unnamed Florida franchise.
Tyrus Thomas: A "pay me to take him" type because of a contract that pays him $25 million over the three years after this one, Thomas nonetheless might be intriguing for the right team. He was devastatingly effective a year ago but has been suddenly awful this season, partly because he's played out of position at the 3 and partly because, well, he's been awful. He can be a handful, too. On the other hand he's only 25 years old and averaged nearly a point every two minutes a year ago; his 8.53 PER this year is dreadful but I have a hard time believing he's truly become this bad this quickly.
Craig Brackins: OK, does anyone have any idea if this guy can play? Any at all? He's been in the NBA for two years but played a total of 60 minutes for the Sixers. With Philly's roster overstocked in the combo forward department, I don't see many more minutes in his future, and the Sixers didn't pick up his option for 2012-13. His D-League numbers from 18 games last season suggest he might be a useful pick-and-pop weapon; I'd imagine he'd be worth a flier for a rebuilding team.
Tobias Harris and Jon Leuer: File this under "we'll take Stephen Jackson IF …" Milwaukee's two rookies have both been very productive in limited minutes; Harris is obviously the more alluring of the two due to his youth and upside, but Leuer is a solid player, too -- a low-mistake, midrange shooting big who has the potential to develop a 3-point game. Both have PERs above the league average in limited minutes this year, and obviously getting one or both would make it much easier to swallow the $10 million Cap'n Jack is owed next year.
Anthony Randolph: I know what you're thinking: been there, done that. But Randolph still may be worth a flier. His per-minute production remains extremely high; this season he's shooting a career-best 50.6 percent, and in four seasons he's never had a PER below 16.
The Wolves seem in fairly good shape at the power forward position and would appear to have no need to keep Randolph beyond this season, but as a running 4 (or even a 5) in the right system Randolph should be able to thrive -- provided he can ditch that eyes-glazed-over routine and do a more convincing job of trying at both ends. He's still just 22, and the potential is obvious. With his being a restricted free agent after the season, the risk is also very low if he's obtained cheaply.
Toney Douglas: It's not working out in New York, but I still think he can play, just not at point guard in a pick-and-roll-heavy system. Douglas forgot how to shoot this year (31.8 percent overall, 23.5 percent on 3s), but his two seasons before that he shot in the high 30s on 3s, suggesting he can be a lot more effective as a spot-up shooter if another ball handler is around to handle the decision-making. And defensively, Douglas is potentially very good. He's still too manic and plays guys too close, but he can defend both guard positions; he also still has one year left on a very favorable rookie contract.
