Official 2010-2011 San Jose Sharks Playoff Thread vs Vancouver Canucks; Vancouver Advances

Jeremy Lin
pimp.gif
, he's gonna do it big this year.
 
[h1]Player Profiles: Golden State Warriors[/h1]

By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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[h3]GO TO:         STARTERS           KEY RESERVES [/h3]


We shared our forecast for the Warriors in 2010-11. Now it's time to take a closer look at their roster. Here are my player scouting reports and '10-11 projections.

(Note: Projections are for players who played 500 or more minutes in the NBA in '09-10.)

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[h3]STARTERS[/h3]
[h4]STEPHEN CURRY, PG[/h4]
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 Projection: 20.8 pts, 4.8 reb, 6.3 ast per 40 min; 17.57 PER | Player card

• Smart, sweet-shooting guard with quick release and good handle.
• Clever pick-and-roll operator, but needs to cut turnovers and draw more fouls.
• Good quickness, but lack of strength, speed problematic at defensive end.
Curry looked so talented and polished as a rookie that it seems not even the Warriors can taint him. After a slow start, his numbers after the All-Star break were outrageous: 22.2 points and 7.7 assists. Sure, the Warriors' ridiculous pace inflated those numbers, but Curry clearly is a keeper at the point.

He's also an amazing shooter, nailing 88.5 percent from the line, 43.7 percent on 3-pointers and 45.3 percent of his long 2-pointers. It's extremely rare for a rookie to shoot this well; normally it takes a steady progression over several seasons before they reach this point, as evidenced by Chauncey Billups and Steve Nash.

Curry still has his weaknesses. While he's a very good pick-and-roll passer and can make the kind of one-hand, off-the-dribble passes that few point guards have mastered, he committed way too many turnovers and his overall assist rate was fairly low. Additionally, he has to learn how to draw fouls -- despite his stellar shooting, his true shooting percentage was nothing special, because he generated one of the lowest free-throw rates at his position.


[h4]MONTA ELLIS, SG[/h4]
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 Projection: 24.2 pts, 4.2 reb, 4.8 ast per 40 min; 17.17 PER | Player card

• Super quick guard who loves to push tempo and finish in transition.
• Defensive ball hawk but gambles too much and lacks size for two.
• Mediocre outside shooter who often shoots contested Js early in shot clock.
Ellis is talented enough that he may eventually become very valuable, but at the moment he is the league's most overrated player. He plays like he learned the game from watching Allen Iverson tapes, and I don't mean that as a compliment. Probably no player in the league took more ill-advised jump shots early in the shot clock, a particular problem in this case because Ellis isn't a good jump shooter -- he made only 33.8 percent of his 3s and 38.1 percent of his long 2s.

Ellis finished with a gaudy scoring average because he played a lot of minutes on a fast-paced team, but he was 47th among shooting guards in both TS% and pure point rating. Basically, he dribbles around looking for a shot unless circumstances force him to pass.

The most damning stat, however, is how much better the team played without him. Golden State outscored its opponents quite comfortably as long as Ellis wasn't around, and finished a whopping 11.4 points per 100 possessions better without Ellis -- giving him the single worst differential in basketball (see chart).
[h4]Worst On-court vs. Off-court Plus-Minus, 2009-10*[/h4][table][tr][th=""]Player[/th][th=""]Team[/th][th=""]On-court[/th][th=""]Off-court[/th][th=""]Differential[/th][/tr][tr][td]Monta Ellis[/td][td]GS[/td][td]-7.6[/td][td]+3.8[/td][td]-11.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]Sam Young[/td][td]Mem[/td][td]-7.9[/td][td]+1.9[/td][td]-9.8[/td][/tr][tr][td]Juwan Howard[/td][td]Por[/td][td]-1.7[/td][td]+7.7[/td][td]-9.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]Ryan Hollins[/td][td]Min[/td][td]-16.3[/td][td]-6.9[/td][td]-9.4[/td][/tr][tr][td]Jeff Green[/td][td]OKC[/td][td]+2.2[/td][td]+11.5[/td][td]-9.3[/td][/tr][/table]   *All ratings per 100 possessions. Source: 82games.com


[h4]DORELL WRIGHT, SF[/h4]
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 Projection: 12.9 pts, 6.5 reb, 2.5 ast per 40 min; 14.22 PER | Player card

• Tall wing who rebounds well and uses length to bother shots on defense.
• Weak handle limits offensive production. Improving shooter with good elevation.
• Can run floor and finish at basket. Good foul shooter. Lacks strength.
After years of threats, the Heat actually played Wright consistently last season. He played solidly, but the one negative is that his rebound rate dropped quite a bit. That may have been a lingering result of his 2008 knee surgery.

Wright more than offset the rebounding decline by making shots. He hit an impressive 69.0 percent of his shots in the basket area, made enough 3s (38.9 percent) to space the floor decently, and has become an impressive foul shooter (88.4 percent last season). Additionally, he's a very solid defensive player who can use his length to be a pest. If the jumper keeps coming around, he could be a nice value pick-up for Golden State.


[h4]DAVID LEE, PF[/h4]
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 Projection: 19.3 pts, 12.3 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 19.98 PER | Player card

• Devastating pick-and-roll finisher. Lefty, but has a great right hand around rim.
• Good rebounder and runs floor. Can hit mid-range set shot, dribble and pass.
• Inexplicably awful help defender. Never blocks shots, rarely helps out guards.
Lee showed up with a dramatically improved jump shot and rode it to his first All-Star appearance. He made nearly four times as many long 2s as he had a season earlier, converting 43.9 percent of his tries, and he was able to use the threat of the J to carve up defenses with drives or passes from the high post.

Lee could already finish and run, so adding the J made him a phenomenal offensive player. He ranked among the top 20 centers in every phase -- 19th in TS%, 12th in assist ratio, 11th in turnover ratio, eighth in pure point rating, and sixth in usage rate. He was also seventh in rebound rate and fifth in player efficiency rating. While pundits like to say he's a creation of Mike D'Antoni's system, that's not really true -- his numbers also were very strong under Isiah Thomas, albeit in much fewer minutes.

That said, there's one area that Lee will fit right in with his new Golden State teammates -- he's just flat-out awful on defense. Granted, playing out of position didn't help, but his effort and awareness were the biggest issues. Though he's very mobile, he rarely, if ever, came across the lane to help out teammates and drew just eight offensive fouls in 81 games. Of his Knick teammates, only Tracy McGrady drew charges less often.

If you combine blocks, steals, and charges, you get a similar answer: Lee combined for one every 22.7 minutes, easily the worst rate of any center.


[h4]ANDRIS BIEDRINS, C[/h4]
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 Projection: 11.2 pts, 13.9 reb, 2.9 ast per 40 min; 15.15 PER | Player card

• Elite finisher who excels converting short shots around basket.
• Blocks shots, but lack of muscle leaves him overpowered on defense.
• Good rebounder and can handle ball, but a horrid foul shooter.
Biedrins checks nearly every box in the NBA big man list: He blocks shots, he rebounds, and he finishes shots in the paint as a dive man on the pick-and-roll. He can even handle the ball a little.

Unfortunately, he can't do one very important thing -- defend the post -- and he's in the worst possible situation on a Warriors team with nobody else who can do it either. Put him next to Charles Oakley and he'd be a star; on this club, however, foul trouble is a way of life because there's nobody else around to do the dirty work for him.

In the rare moments when he wasn't injured last season, Biedrins averaged a whistle every 6.5 minutes, making it impossible to get extended burn on the court. While he scored dramatically less often than usual, he had his usual ridiculously high field-goal percentage (59.1%), ranked ninth among centers in rebound rate and in the top third in blocks. He's only 24 and should be entering his prime years, but he sorely needs a counterpart who can save him from the nightly beatings he's taking. No, David Lee doesn't qualify.

[h3]RESERVES[/h3]

[h4]JEREMY LIN, PG[/h4]
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 No projection | Player card

• Quick point guard who can handle ball and create shots.
• Average at best as shooter, and needs to improve court vision.
• Smart player with good motor. Should be able to defend position.
My draft rater had Lin rated as a high second rounder, so I was pleased to see him fare well in Summer League and get a contract from Golden State. He'll earn a lot of attention as the league's first Asian-American in a city with a huge Asian population, but this may be more of a developmental season -- he's taking a huge step up in competition going from the Ivy League to the NBA. On paper he's the backup point guard, but he'll likely be on a very short leash.


[h4]EKPE UDOH, PF[/h4]
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 No projection | Player card

• Long, athletic power forward who can jump; outstanding shot-blocker.
• Good rebounder despite lack of muscle, but must get stronger.
• Good finisher, decent jump shooter, but raw offensively and needs post moves.
I thought Udoh was a reach with the sixth overall pick. He's already 23, which is very old for a high first-rounder, and his college numbers weren't exactly overwhelming -- he averaged 13.9 points and shot 49.0 percent. We won't find out for a while if I'm right, as he tore a ligament in his left wrist over the summer, required surgery and will miss about half the season.


[h4]LOUIS AMUNDSON, C[/h4]
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 Projection: 12.4 pts, 11.0 reb, 1.2 ast per 40 min, PER 13.56 | Player card

• Athletic but undersized big man who goes to glass and blocks shots.
• Subpar finisher at rim with zero shooting range and limited ball skills.
• Nimble enough to defend perimeter; can play center in right match-up.
Most quick leaper are good finishers around the basket; Amundson is a rare exception -- he's so unskilled around the rim that even contested shots around the basket are dicey. His game is based on straight energy -- he was fourth among power forwards in blocks per minute, fifth in offensive boards, and 12th in free-throw rate. Alas, there were drawbacks to that approach too. He was eights in fouls per minute, with more than one every seven minutes, and that often kept his cameos brief.

Still, one wonders why Phoenix didn't start Amundson in the middle instead of Jarron Collins late in the season, since he was a vastly more effective player. Amundson had a 14.44 PER to Collins's 3.76, and although smaller was a much more mobile defender.


[h4]VLADIMIR RADMANOVIC, PF[/h4]
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 Projection: 11.2 pts, 7.3 reb, 2.2 ast per 40 min; 7.88 PER | Player card

• Outstanding shooter off catch, with size to shoot over closers.
• Decent defender with quick feet, especially at the 3, but lacks toughness for a PF.
• Will step inside arc for shots but rarely draws fouls.
You'd think the Warriors' system would be perfect for Radmanovic, but he was so bad that he played his way out of the rotation entirely. He shot just 37.7 percent and had the second-worst PER among power forwards, partly because he couldn't make a shot and partly because he's become amazingly bad at drawing fouls -- he had only 27 free-throw attempts all season.


[h4]BRANDAN WRIGHT, PF[/h4]
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 No projection | Player card

• Long big man who can block shots and finish in the paint.
• Needs to add muscle and improve paint defense and jump shot.
• Can run floor and move without ball. Incredibly injury prone.
Wright missed the entire season due to shoulder surgery. He's still a very promising prospect but has played only 77 games in his three pro seasons. His inability to space the floor has made him a bad fit in the Warriors' system, and with the addition of David Lee and Ekpe Udoh, Wright may get his next good chance in another uniform. Keep an eye on him, though, because he can play.


[h4]REGGIE WILLIAMS, SF[/h4]
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 Projection: 18.6 pts, 5.6 reb, 3.6 ast per 40 min; 15.91 PER | Player card

• Lefty forward with good outside shot and great scoring instincts.
• Good passer, but an average athlete who should get in better shape.
• Defense a concern, but one of the few Warriors who actually tried.
Looks like everyone whiffed on this guy. Williams went undrafted out of VMI despite leading the nation in scoring two seasons in a row, but he got his shot after absolutely destroying the D-League (57.6 percent shooting, 26.4 points per game). Upon joining the Warriors, he demonstrated from Day 1 that he should have been in the NBA the whole time. He not only scored with ease (18.7 points per 40 minutes), he ranked fifth among small forwards in pure point rating and 10th in TS%.

Williams' projection for this season is based on limited data, and some aspects of his performance might be difficult for him to repeat -- in particular, the 56 percent he shot on 2s. However, he's clearly an instinctive scorer with a knack for making odd mid-distance shots. He's undersized for a small forward and has to shed some baby fat, but with his scoring instincts he should be a productive bench scorer.


[h4]RODNEY CARNEY, SF[/h4]
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 Projection: 13.5 pts, 5.6 reb, 1.5 ast per 40 min, PER 11.31 | Player card

• Lean wing with Olympian running and jumping ability.
• Average at best as a shooter; has weak handle and poor offensive instincts.
• Surprisingly beatable defender despite athleticism. Lack of strength a problem.
I've long felt that Carney shoots too many 3s, and I doubt Golden State is the right place to cure that affliction. Over the past two seasons, more than half of Carney's shots have been 3s and he's made a barely acceptable 33.2 percent of them.

He's not setting the world afire with his play inside the arc, either; in truth, he's just a subpar half-court player who mainly tries to avoid turnovers. He was wildly successful on that front, at least, ranking second at his position in turnover ratio.

Where he can shine, however, is in transition, and Golden State's turbo-charged pace might help him here. If he can get a couple of easy dunks every night and boost his shooting percentage, he's much more viable as an offensive player.


[h4]CHARLIE BELL, SG[/h4]
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 Projection: 10.6 pts, 2.9 reb, 2.8 ast per 40 min; 7.23 PER | Player card

• Hard-nosed, strong defender who can check wings despite giving up inches.
• Wooden offensive player with slow first step and limited creativity.
• Decent outside shooter off catch with quick release.
Bell is pretty much reaching the end of the line. He's a 31-year-old, 6-foot-3 shooting guard with limited athleticism and bad knees; you do the math. Last season he shot 38.1 percent, and it's even worse when you break it down and see that he rarely created shots in the first place; Bell was 60th out of 66 shooting guards in usage rate and 61st in TS%. He also finished 62nd in rebound rate and 64th in PER. He has two years left on his deal, but from this point forward he's more a "contract" than a "player."


[h4]DAN GADZURIC, C[/h4]
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 No projection | Player card

• Athletic but uncoordinated center who can run floor and chase down rebounds.
• Unskilled finisher with no range and limited ball-handling skills.
• Active, quick defender but lacks muscle and frequently gets caught off balance.
Gadzuric hardly played, but wasn't half-bad when he did, showing as much defensive activity as we've seen from him in years. He still moves up and down the court pretty well at age 31, but centers who shoot in the mid-40s, as he's done for the past four seasons, don't tend to be in high demand.

Gadzuric lacks muscle and coordination and thus fouls incredibly often -- slightly more than once every five minutes last season. That's less of an issue now that he's basically a No. 3 center, and with the trade to Golden State he may get more opportunities to use his speed for open-court scores.

Biedrins can handle the ball now
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.  I can't stand Hollinger.
Click to expand...
 
Originally Posted by acidicality

Jeremy Lin
pimp.gif
, he's gonna do it big this year.
Click to expand...
Word, I'll be really pulling for dude
smokin.gif


Acid, you from TW?
nerd.gif
And I heard you played ball with Lin. How is he as a person? I saw dude in Taiwan, but that was about it. He's carrying Taiwan on the shoulders right now... Everyone back home is proud of him
smokin.gif
 
This thread will go 1000 pages just on Yuku's mess up alone.

Anyway, VERY excited for the season to start.  We finally have some sense of direction and leadership.  It's gonna be great seeing how Steph develops, how Steph and Lee mesh, the continued maturity of my boy Monta, and of course the excitement of Jeremy Lin on the team.

I'm also excited to see how our rotations will go now.  Hopefully, with Nellie out means we have a steady rotation of players.  I'm also looking for the Biedrins to hopefully get back to where he was two years ago and seeing how good Dorrel Wright really is now that he's getting a clear opportunity here.

Just very excited overall.  Can't wait to cop the new jersey.

Friday....let's get get get ittttt!
 
You can't get any less from Biedrins than last year.

Same for Wright's entire career.
 
Originally Posted by Fog Raw

Originally Posted by acidicality

Jeremy Lin
pimp.gif
, he's gonna do it big this year.
Click to expand...
Word, I'll be really pulling for dude
smokin.gif


Acid, you from TW?
nerd.gif
And I heard you played ball with Lin. How is he as a person? I saw dude in Taiwan, but that was about it. He's carrying Taiwan on the shoulders right now... Everyone back home is proud of him
smokin.gif
Click to expand...

   Yeah, I'm Taiwanese but I was born here, my parents are from Taiwan. Back in like 2000-2002ish when I played against him, I thought he was a little bit cocky, arrogant, but everyone knew he was good and respected him (certainly, no one expected him to be in the NBA).
It's like the first person from Silicon Valley, in our generation and same cultural background, to make it huge in something besides academics.
pimp.gif
pimp.gif
I truly believe him making it will allow future Asian-Americans to have more chances to make it in basketball, no matter how he does in the NBA.
 
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