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Who did he surpass?
George Gervin or Admiral?
George Gervin or Admiral?
OFFICIAL 2010-2011 NBA PLAYOFFS THREAD : VOL. MOST. ANTICIPATED. PLAYOFFS. EVER?
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by bigmike23,
- Start date
do be doo
Banned
- Mar 13, 2009
- 6,589
- 547
5-0
ICE has like 3000+ more points counting both the ABA and NBA.
ICE has like 3000+ more points counting both the ABA and NBA.
do be doo
Banned
- Mar 13, 2009
- 6,589
- 547
5-0
ICE has like 3000+ more points counting both the ABA and NBA.
ICE has like 3000+ more points counting both the ABA and NBA.
Damn Dirk.
Kevin Durant and the Thunder need to find another gear to make the West playoffs.
If you could pick only one of them, which do you think is more likely to make the playoffs: Indiana or Oklahoma City?
Seems obvious, doesn't it? The Pacers are a fairly uninteresting collection of B-list talent and haven't made the postseason since the last time Tony Parker was single, while the Thunder entered the season as the darlings of the league and boast two All-Star-caliber perimeter players in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. At 7-4 against the Pacers' 5-5, Oklahoma City also has a better record. The Thunder, it seems, are the obvious choice.
Not so fast.
Play out the season based on the results of games to date, adjust for the massive disparity in strength between the two conferences, and you reach a surprising conclusion: Indy's odds of qualifying for the playoffs appear to be significantly better than the Thunder's.
[h4]HOLLINGER'S PLAYOFF ODDS[/h4]
Check your team's chances of making
it to the playoffs.
• Playoff Odds »
That's the result of our simulation of the rest of the season using the Playoff Odds tool, which launches for 2010-11 today. The method, if you'll recall, is that we play out the rest of the season 5,000 times and tabulate the results, using the current Power Rankings as our base to set the odds of any individual game.
We also allow for home-court advantage, and this early in the season we use a "regression to the mean" component; that way we tend to avoid overrating a team based on a particularly hot or cold start. (If we didn't do this, we'd find ourselves saying things like, "Based on its 10-0 start, Team X appears likely to win 75 games.")
Of course, there will always be factors for which the computerized method can't compensate. Portland, for instance, projects to have a 70.5 percent chance of making the postseason, but that's based on a Power Ranking largely built with Brandon Roy in the lineup. If he can't participate in their final 69 games, one presumes the Blazers' odds diminish substantially.
Here's another common occurrence that throws people when they look at the playoff odds: Often, a conference will have more than eight teams -- or fewer than eight teams -- with better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is perfectly logical mathematically -- in fact, you could have all 15 teams in the conference with better than 50 percent odds, since if the games were completely random, each team's odds would be 53.3 percent. As long as the percentages add up to 800 in each conference and no single team has more than 100, any split of the odds among the 15 teams is kosher.
Thus, the current situation we have in the East, where only seven teams project as likely to make the playoffs. This doesn't mean that the East will have only seven playoff teams (although I'd heartily support such a resolution), but rather that the probability of attaining the last spot is split nearly evenly among several fairly awful teams.
As for the Pacers and Thunder? Here's how the Playoff Odds see it: Thanks to the Pacers' easier schedule in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers and Thunder project to finish the season with identical 41-41 records. And since the projected playoff cut-line is at 37 wins in the East but 44 wins in the West, that translates into much better postseason odds for the Pacers.
Indy qualified for the postseason in 67.4 percent of our simulations, with the No. 7 seed its most likely landing spot. Oklahoma City? The Thunder made it only 43.2 percent of the time, with ninth place their most frequent endpoint. Even if a team projected to finish ahead of them (such as Portland) falls off the pace, the Thunder have to hold off three other challengers in Houston, Memphis and Golden State, all of whom project to win at least 38 games.
In contrast, the three teams projected to share No. 9 in the East -- Toronto, Detroit and New York -- average only 34 wins in our simulations. So the Pacers have a great deal more wiggle room than the Thunder.
We see this happen every season in the two conferences, when Western Conference teams enter the lottery and not the playoffs because they have the bad luck to play in the West instead of the East. This doesn't mean Indiana is a better team. Although the current Power Rankings would make Indiana a slight favorite on a neutral court, that's unlikely to hold up all season. But the Pacers don't need to be better; in fact, they can be substantially worse, because they're in a much easier neighborhood.
So, as strange as it sounds, the Pacers are in a much better position to make the playoffs than the more celebrated Thunder squad, based on how they've played to date.
A few more questions on the Playoff Odds:
Why so conservative?
You'll notice that no teams project to win 60 games and only five project to win more than 50. This results from two phenomena. First, the regression-to-the-mean component mentioned above is a factor. It will become less of one as the season goes on, but for now it retains a healthy skepticism that any team is as good (or bad) as we've seen so far.
Second, however, is an important trend that I haven't seen folks account for: The bottom-feeders have become a lot better, and those wins have to come from somewhere. Last season New Jersey and Minnesota combined to win 27 games between them, and five other teams lost at least 55 games.
This year? Only four teams project to lose more than 50, and none appear headed anywhere near the abysmal orbit the Nets and Wolves occupied a year ago. The worst projected records belong to Minnesota and Sacramento, both at 24-58; that's twice as many games as the Nets won in 2009-10.
We're likely to see some movement toward the poles as the year goes on and the regression-to-the-mean component fades away, but it still stands to reason that the standings will be more compressed than those of other recent seasons. It's difficult to have a bunch of 60-win teams unless there are some equally awful teams to offset them at the bottom.
How do the Heat project so well?
Miami is "just" 7-4, but the Heat own the league's best Power Ranking thanks to what is far and away the NBA's best scoring margin. Additionally, based on Power Rankings, Miami has already played two of the three toughest games on its schedule (at Boston, at New Orleans).
In their final 71 games, based on current Power Rankings, they have two toss-ups (at Boston, at Lakers) and will be favored in the other 69. That's how we arrive at Miami going 51-20 the rest of the way and landing a game ahead of Boston for the East's top seed.
New Orleans ahead of the Lakers?
The Hornets have placed extremely well in the early going, but naturally we should be skeptical about whether they can keep it up.
While New Orleans projects to beat out the Lakers for the West's top seed by two games, in this case what the computer doesn't know may be of crucial importance: Namely, that L.A. has been playing without Andrew Bynum, and its defense has suffered as a result. I still expect the Lakers to be the West's No. 1 seed when all is said and done.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the striation we're seeing in the West. Only New Orleans and San Antonio have established themselves as potential foils for L.A. After that is a morass of five teams projected to win 44-48 games, followed by early disappointments like Oklahoma City, Houston and (arguably) Memphis. The West remains the deeper, better conference, but at the top the East may be more powerful.
Who are the mortal locks?
You'll see some teams listed with odds at 100 percent, which obviously conveys a greater deal of certainty than you might think since we're still in the first month of the season.
Two notes on those situations: First, a team can miss the playoffs in up to two of the 5,000 simulations and still show up as "100.0" because we round to the first decimal.
Second, we run 5,000 simulations ... not a million. There are any number of ways a team like, say, Miami, could miss the playoffs, but most of them appear to be unlikely in the extreme. So we can't say, definitely, that the Heat are 100 percent certain to make the postseason until they've mathematically clinched. We can say, however, that they're within rounding-error distance.
Thus far we have only three cases where a team's playoff odds are better than 99.5 percent: Boston, Miami and New Orleans are the lucky trio who can feel free to start printing playoff tickets. Boston can take comfort in a top-four seed, too, as the Celtics have a 99.6 percent shot to win the Atlantic Division (The Celtics project to win it by 23 games and be the division's only playoff team).
On the other hand, three teams are basically out of it already. In the West, the Clippers, Kings and Timberwolves appear to have virtually no chance at the postseason, with a combined 0.6 percent probability that any of them make it.
That may seem especially harsh with the Kings (3-7), given that a Houston team with a worse record still shows a 35.2 percent probability. But Sacramento has played the league's easiest schedule thus far -- their opponents have a .374 opponent winning percentage when not playing the Kings -- and played six of its 10 games at home. Houston, in contrast, has played one of the NBA's toughest slates.
The Kings sit at 28th in the Power Rankings after a miserable home loss to Team Mozgov on Wednesday and would likely need to get well over .500 to make the postseason. Thus, the piddling 0.2 percent chance this morning's Playoff Odds give them seems entirely appropriate.
[h3][/h3]
Kevin Durant and the Thunder need to find another gear to make the West playoffs.
If you could pick only one of them, which do you think is more likely to make the playoffs: Indiana or Oklahoma City?
Seems obvious, doesn't it? The Pacers are a fairly uninteresting collection of B-list talent and haven't made the postseason since the last time Tony Parker was single, while the Thunder entered the season as the darlings of the league and boast two All-Star-caliber perimeter players in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. At 7-4 against the Pacers' 5-5, Oklahoma City also has a better record. The Thunder, it seems, are the obvious choice.
Not so fast.
Play out the season based on the results of games to date, adjust for the massive disparity in strength between the two conferences, and you reach a surprising conclusion: Indy's odds of qualifying for the playoffs appear to be significantly better than the Thunder's.
[h4]HOLLINGER'S PLAYOFF ODDS[/h4]
Check your team's chances of making
it to the playoffs.
• Playoff Odds »
That's the result of our simulation of the rest of the season using the Playoff Odds tool, which launches for 2010-11 today. The method, if you'll recall, is that we play out the rest of the season 5,000 times and tabulate the results, using the current Power Rankings as our base to set the odds of any individual game.
We also allow for home-court advantage, and this early in the season we use a "regression to the mean" component; that way we tend to avoid overrating a team based on a particularly hot or cold start. (If we didn't do this, we'd find ourselves saying things like, "Based on its 10-0 start, Team X appears likely to win 75 games.")
Of course, there will always be factors for which the computerized method can't compensate. Portland, for instance, projects to have a 70.5 percent chance of making the postseason, but that's based on a Power Ranking largely built with Brandon Roy in the lineup. If he can't participate in their final 69 games, one presumes the Blazers' odds diminish substantially.
Here's another common occurrence that throws people when they look at the playoff odds: Often, a conference will have more than eight teams -- or fewer than eight teams -- with better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is perfectly logical mathematically -- in fact, you could have all 15 teams in the conference with better than 50 percent odds, since if the games were completely random, each team's odds would be 53.3 percent. As long as the percentages add up to 800 in each conference and no single team has more than 100, any split of the odds among the 15 teams is kosher.
Thus, the current situation we have in the East, where only seven teams project as likely to make the playoffs. This doesn't mean that the East will have only seven playoff teams (although I'd heartily support such a resolution), but rather that the probability of attaining the last spot is split nearly evenly among several fairly awful teams.
As for the Pacers and Thunder? Here's how the Playoff Odds see it: Thanks to the Pacers' easier schedule in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers and Thunder project to finish the season with identical 41-41 records. And since the projected playoff cut-line is at 37 wins in the East but 44 wins in the West, that translates into much better postseason odds for the Pacers.
Indy qualified for the postseason in 67.4 percent of our simulations, with the No. 7 seed its most likely landing spot. Oklahoma City? The Thunder made it only 43.2 percent of the time, with ninth place their most frequent endpoint. Even if a team projected to finish ahead of them (such as Portland) falls off the pace, the Thunder have to hold off three other challengers in Houston, Memphis and Golden State, all of whom project to win at least 38 games.
In contrast, the three teams projected to share No. 9 in the East -- Toronto, Detroit and New York -- average only 34 wins in our simulations. So the Pacers have a great deal more wiggle room than the Thunder.
We see this happen every season in the two conferences, when Western Conference teams enter the lottery and not the playoffs because they have the bad luck to play in the West instead of the East. This doesn't mean Indiana is a better team. Although the current Power Rankings would make Indiana a slight favorite on a neutral court, that's unlikely to hold up all season. But the Pacers don't need to be better; in fact, they can be substantially worse, because they're in a much easier neighborhood.
So, as strange as it sounds, the Pacers are in a much better position to make the playoffs than the more celebrated Thunder squad, based on how they've played to date.
A few more questions on the Playoff Odds:
Why so conservative?
You'll notice that no teams project to win 60 games and only five project to win more than 50. This results from two phenomena. First, the regression-to-the-mean component mentioned above is a factor. It will become less of one as the season goes on, but for now it retains a healthy skepticism that any team is as good (or bad) as we've seen so far.
Second, however, is an important trend that I haven't seen folks account for: The bottom-feeders have become a lot better, and those wins have to come from somewhere. Last season New Jersey and Minnesota combined to win 27 games between them, and five other teams lost at least 55 games.
This year? Only four teams project to lose more than 50, and none appear headed anywhere near the abysmal orbit the Nets and Wolves occupied a year ago. The worst projected records belong to Minnesota and Sacramento, both at 24-58; that's twice as many games as the Nets won in 2009-10.
We're likely to see some movement toward the poles as the year goes on and the regression-to-the-mean component fades away, but it still stands to reason that the standings will be more compressed than those of other recent seasons. It's difficult to have a bunch of 60-win teams unless there are some equally awful teams to offset them at the bottom.
How do the Heat project so well?
Miami is "just" 7-4, but the Heat own the league's best Power Ranking thanks to what is far and away the NBA's best scoring margin. Additionally, based on Power Rankings, Miami has already played two of the three toughest games on its schedule (at Boston, at New Orleans).
In their final 71 games, based on current Power Rankings, they have two toss-ups (at Boston, at Lakers) and will be favored in the other 69. That's how we arrive at Miami going 51-20 the rest of the way and landing a game ahead of Boston for the East's top seed.
New Orleans ahead of the Lakers?
The Hornets have placed extremely well in the early going, but naturally we should be skeptical about whether they can keep it up.
While New Orleans projects to beat out the Lakers for the West's top seed by two games, in this case what the computer doesn't know may be of crucial importance: Namely, that L.A. has been playing without Andrew Bynum, and its defense has suffered as a result. I still expect the Lakers to be the West's No. 1 seed when all is said and done.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the striation we're seeing in the West. Only New Orleans and San Antonio have established themselves as potential foils for L.A. After that is a morass of five teams projected to win 44-48 games, followed by early disappointments like Oklahoma City, Houston and (arguably) Memphis. The West remains the deeper, better conference, but at the top the East may be more powerful.
Who are the mortal locks?
You'll see some teams listed with odds at 100 percent, which obviously conveys a greater deal of certainty than you might think since we're still in the first month of the season.
Two notes on those situations: First, a team can miss the playoffs in up to two of the 5,000 simulations and still show up as "100.0" because we round to the first decimal.
Second, we run 5,000 simulations ... not a million. There are any number of ways a team like, say, Miami, could miss the playoffs, but most of them appear to be unlikely in the extreme. So we can't say, definitely, that the Heat are 100 percent certain to make the postseason until they've mathematically clinched. We can say, however, that they're within rounding-error distance.
Thus far we have only three cases where a team's playoff odds are better than 99.5 percent: Boston, Miami and New Orleans are the lucky trio who can feel free to start printing playoff tickets. Boston can take comfort in a top-four seed, too, as the Celtics have a 99.6 percent shot to win the Atlantic Division (The Celtics project to win it by 23 games and be the division's only playoff team).
On the other hand, three teams are basically out of it already. In the West, the Clippers, Kings and Timberwolves appear to have virtually no chance at the postseason, with a combined 0.6 percent probability that any of them make it.
That may seem especially harsh with the Kings (3-7), given that a Houston team with a worse record still shows a 35.2 percent probability. But Sacramento has played the league's easiest schedule thus far -- their opponents have a .374 opponent winning percentage when not playing the Kings -- and played six of its 10 games at home. Houston, in contrast, has played one of the NBA's toughest slates.
The Kings sit at 28th in the Power Rankings after a miserable home loss to Team Mozgov on Wednesday and would likely need to get well over .500 to make the postseason. Thus, the piddling 0.2 percent chance this morning's Playoff Odds give them seems entirely appropriate.
[h3][/h3]
[h3]Ford: Bogdanovic's stock could rise[/h3]
4:34PM ET
[h5]Bojan Bogdanovic[/h5]
After a 2010 NBA draft that saw zero international players go in the lottery, the 2011 NBA draft is shaping up to have some solid international talent.
Currently, ESPN's Chad Ford has Jan Vesely (No. 6), Jonas Valanciunas (No.and Donatas Motiejunas (No. 16) high on his 2011 Big Board.
But Bojan Bogdanovic, a center from Croatia, could join them as potential lottery picks as the season progresses.
Ford explains why:
[h5]ESPN's Chad Ford[/h5]
Bogdanovic a skilled scorer
http://[h3]Does Oden have a future in OKC?[/h3]
3:52PM ET
[h5]Greg Oden | Trail Blazers[/h5]
With news that Greg Oden won't be playing basketball this season due to another knee injury, focus now turns to his future.
And as an expected restricted free agent next summer, other teams could come calling for Oden.
Could one such team be the Thunder?
"It would only be the greatest low-risk, high-reward maneuver we've ever seen [GM Sam] Presti pull," wrote Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman. "It?s not like the Thunder couldn?t use even a marginally healthy Oden to aid its quest for a title. Nenad Krstic, Cole Aldrich and Byron Mullens, the Thunder's current cast of centers, certainly won't fool anyone into thinking they're championship caliber."
While this is an intriguing option -- especially the pairing of Oden and Kevin Durant, who want back-to-back at No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2007 NBA Draft -- there's a sizable hitch here.
Blazers president Larry Miller was fairly adamant in saying the team will offer Oden his $8.8 million qualifying offer which will make him a restricted free agent.
It seems an enormous risk the Thunder would offer more than that to a guy who will only end up playing 82 games in four seasons after 2010-11 is complete -- though terms of a new collective-bargaining agreement could change the dollar amount.
Of course, if that qualifying offer is not tenured, Oden could be had for far less, and the Thunder could make a little more sense for a future Oden destination.
-- Ryan Corazza
http://[h3]The latest on the Hornets' sale[/h3]
2:52PM ET
[h5]New Orleans Hornets[/h5]
For several months now, it's been expected the Hornets will change hands from owner George Shinn to minority partner Gary Chouset.
But the sale continues to hang in limbo and nothing has been completed yet.
In the Weekend Dime, ESPN's Marc Stein has an update on the situation, with one source saying the sale could finally come to a close by the end of the year.
Here's Stein on what it will mean for the franchise:
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Chouset may be willing to spend more
http://[h3]Yao out at least another two weeks[/h3]
2:29PM ET
[h5]Yao Ming | Rockets[/h5]
UPDATE: So much for another week for Yao.
According to Johnathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, Yao will miss at least another two weeks.
"It's probably more for conditioning," he tweeted. "Foot fine. Ankle has bone bruise."
In his absence, Brad Miller and Jordan Hill will see the majority of minutes at center for Houston.
-- Ryan Corazza
---
Yao Ming sprained his left ankle against the Wizards last Wednesday and Tuesday he said he needs "about another week" to recover from the injury.
"It's pretty simple," Yao told the Houston Chronicle. "We just wait for the feeling to get normal, no soreness and (when) I can push off with no soreness or pain. At that time, I will come back to the court. It's all about the ankle. It's improving."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Teams willing to gamble on Melo [/h3]
12:58PM ET
[h5]Carmelo Anthony | Nuggets[/h5]
Conventional wisdom holds that if a team is going to pull the trigger on a Carmelo Anthony trade, that'd like some sort of assurance he's willing to sign an extension with them.
After all, what's the point of trading away assets for half a season with the gifted scorer if he's just going to leave in the summer?
But as ESPN's Marc Stein reports in the Weekend Dime, there are a more than few teams that are willing to take this risk with the hope that once Melo comes to town, he'll want to stay.
Stein explains:
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Dallas, Houston would take Melo without an extension agreement
http://[h3]Randolph's decreasing role[/h3]
12:39PM ET
[h5]Anthony Randolph | Knicks[/h5]
UPDATE: D'Antoni has confirmed Randolph may not be playing much for the foreseeable future.
"I told him, right now, this is all about the team and I've got to go with my gut and he might play and he might not," D'Antoni said, according to the New York Daily News. "Right now, it's all about the Knicks. We'll worry about individuals after we get out of the hole a little bit. And then we'll start talking about long-term strategies. But right now, it's just to win today."
---
When the Knicks acquired Anthony Randolph in a sign-and-trade with Golden State for David Lee over the summer, many believed the talented, yet inconsistent youngster, free from Don Nelson, would thrive in Mike D'Antoni's system.
There was even talk he could grab a spot in the starting lineup if he performed well.
But so far, things have worked out far different. Randolph had a rough preseason, and an ankle injury had him out for part of this young season. Randolph is only averaging 11.2 minutes a game, and Wednesday night in the team's win over the Kings, he received a DNP from coach D'Antoni.
"There's been too many mistakes, not enough rebounds, blocked shots or accurate jump shots," wrote Marc Beman of the New York Post. "He's more apt to shoot an airball from 20 feet than sink it. Turnovers have been an issue ... It will be interesting to see how D'Antoni plays it from here. They broke their six-game losing streak without him. D'Antoni, whose been under fire the past few days, right now cares more about his future than Randolph's."
As Dec. 15 creeps closer -- the date signings from over the summer can be dealt in trades, and when Carmelo Anthony trade talks may again pick up -- we suppose it's possible the Knicks may dangle Randolph as a young talent, which the Nuggets are reportedly seeking in return for Anthony.
But his resume so far this season isn't exactly one Denver may be looking at with excitement right now.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]Jared Zwerling of ESPN New York[/h5]
To contend, Knicks bench needs to contribute
http://[h3]Davis could be ready next week[/h3]
12:25PM ET
[h5]Ed Davis | Raptors[/h5]
UPDATE: Mike Ganter of the Toronto Sun reported Thursday that Davis is now wearing a lighter brace, and he could return as early as next week.
"Monday in Miami he went through his first full contact practice," wrote Ganter. "It all points to a return to the court as early as next week."
---
Raptors rookie Ed Davis had knee surgery on Sept. 20, and the initial timetable for his return was slated for six weeks.
Six weeks has come and gone, and though Davis isn't game ready, "he did a little three-on-three [last Tuesday] that was about his first semi-serious work," according to Doug Smith of the Toronto Star.
Smith goes on to speculate it could be another two to three weeks until Davis gets up to speed.
Whenever Davis is able to return to the lineup, expect him to get some minutes off the bench at power forward behind Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Davis may be on course to a career backup
http://[h3]Thunder out of the playoffs?[/h3]
11:56AM ET
[h5]Oklahoma City Thunder[/h5]
Heading into last season, many believed the Thunder were still a year or two away from making a step into the playoffs.
But after 50 wins and a competitive six-game series against the Lakers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs as the No. 8 seed, larger expectations were placed on the team this year.
Some even said they might be able to grab the No. 2 seed behind the Lakers.
But as ESPN's John Hollinger writes in Friday's PER Diem, his Playoff Odds -- released Friday -- aren't looking too kindly on the Thunder. Currently, the Playoff Odds only give Oklahoma City a 43.2 percent chance of making the postseason.
More from Hollinger:
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Pacers have better chance of making playoffs than Thunder right now
http://[h3]Golden State's head-coaching future[/h3]
11:30AM ET
[h5]Keith Smart | Warriors[/h5]
UPDATE: While we've noted below Smart is off to a solid start for the Warriors, Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News throws another name into the ring as a possible replacement should it come to that.
"Multiple people say that Mike Brown is a name to remember when/if the Warriors are surveying the field for a new coach," he tweeted.
---
When it was announced Keith Smart would be installed as the new head coach of the Warriors before this season, reports stated the team was working on a multi-year deal with him.
And at the media session new team owners Joe Lacob and Peter Gruber held Monday in San Francisco, it was revealed the multi-year deal is actually just a two-year deal with next season being a team option, according to Sam Amick of FanHouse.
"That being said, Lacob said Smart is not interim and should be viewed as a coach who they picked as opposed to next in line," added Amick.
While this may be true, there's no denying the new owners certainly have the option of ditching Smart after this season if they see it as fit.
Yet, the Warriors are out to a solid 7-4 start, and are playing defense (10th in defensive efficiency at 102.9) -- something that wasn't really the case under Don Nelson.
So early on, Smart seems to be earning that second year.
-- Ryan Corazza
http://[h3]Phoenix at the trade deadline[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Steve Nash | Suns[/h5]
Last week, we dipped into Steve Nash trade rumors, and the consensus seemed to be it was all conjecture for now.
Nash isn't actually on the trade block -- even if teams are inquiring -- but if the Suns stumble and appear out of the playoff picture by February's trade deadline, it's possible the team may ease up and look to rebuild via a trade of their prized, yet aged, point guard.
And that's a line of thinking that's extended into this week. Ken Berger of CBS Sports wrote Wednesday that rival executives believe Suns owner Robert Sarver will be looking to wheel and deal at the deadline if the Suns are out of the playoff picture.
"Sarver has been one of the most vocal in a new wave of owners in the collective bargaining fight, and rival executives believe he'll be on a rampage at the trade deadline if the Suns are out of the playoff hunt," he wrote.
But might it be other players besides Nash the team shops?
"Connected sources pointed to Suns' owner Robert Sarver's affinity towards Nash and said when you're talking about the owner's favorite player, there is little room for discussion," wrote Steve Kyler of HOOPSWORLD. "Sources said Sarver wants Nash to retire a Sun and there is little that could happen to change that."
So while there's some indication Nash might not be dangled at the deadline, it seems if the team is struggling, they figure to be players at the trade deadline regardless.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Chad Ford[/h5]
For now, Nash talk looks like conjecture
http://[h3]Walker and Williams tussle for minutes[/h3]
10:43AM ET
[h5]Shawne Williams | Knicks[/h5]
According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, an altercation broke out between Bill Walker and Shawne Williams on Thursday during practice. Other players, including Eddy Curry, helped defuse the dust up between the two reserve small forwards.
Berman writes: "It was a bizarre scene the way Williams carried on. Williams, the former Pacers first-round bust who beat out Patrick Ewing Jr. for the final roster spot and has marijuana arrests on his resume, appears itching to play."
Walker is ahead of Williams in the playing rotation, but that could change if the Knicks don't improve their three-point shooting.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Birdman makes progress[/h3]
10:31AM ET
[h5]Chris Andersen | Nuggets[/h5]
According to The Denver Post, head coach George Karl said Thursday that Andersen's return to game action would be "sooner than later."
Andersen has targeted Dec. 1 as the day he would like to play for the first time this season.
-- Nick Borges
----
According to The Denver Post, center/power forward Chris "Birdman" Andersen has made significant progress from his right knee rehab and even dunked the ball on Thursday.
Andersen has tentatively targeted a return around Thanksgiving when he'll be able to play.
"He's anxious and ambitious to get back as quick as possible," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "I think the next three days, he'll probably (practice) some -- I don't know if he'll run up the court in 5-on-5, but I think he'll participate in all 5-on-0 and shooting activities and stuff like that. We're starting that process to get him to play 5-on-5."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Smart won't go small[/h3]
10:21AM ET
[h5]Keith Smart | Warriors[/h5]
The Warriors are missing power forward David Lee and if Don Nelson was still in charge he may have chosen to play a small lineup to counter the lack of height on the floor.
Keith Smart is in his first season as head coach of the team and he has no plans to deviate from the current playing rotation.
"We've had so much success thus far when we've won the rebounding game, came close or being even. I've got to keep it that way because right now that has been pretty good for us," Smart tells The Oakland Tribune. "I don't want to lose the rebounding edge. I've got to keep the rebounding edge as close as possible until David gets back."
Vladimir Radmanovic, Brandan Wright and rookie Jeff Adrien will man the power forward spot until Lee is able to come back.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Lee leaves hospital[/h3]
10:07AM ET
[h5]David Lee | Warriors[/h5]
Warriors power forward David Lee was discharged from Stanford Hospital on Thursday. He was admitted on Monday because of an infection in his left elbow.
According to The Oakland Tribune, Lee will be re-examined next Tuesday. Lee won't be cleared to play until the infection is completely eradicated and the wound is sealed.
Lee may be out for another 10-14 days.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Richardson's next contract[/h3]
9:48AM ET
[h5]Jason Richardson | Suns[/h5]
Jason Richardson is playing in the final year of his contract and is hoping to sign an extension, but is aware it may not happen.
"I'd love to get something done (with my contract), get it out of the way, so I don't have to do that this summer. That's my hope," Richardson told FanHouse Thursday night. "But nothing serious is being talked about at this point. A contract year can be a distraction, so I'd rather avoid that and just get something done."
Richardson, who is making $14.44 million this season, thinks he would have signed a new deal by now, if there wasn't the uncertainty of the next collective bargaining agreement.
"If it wasn't for the CBA, I think it (an extension) would already be done for me," Richardson said. "I wish it was, but no one knows what the contracts will look like next year."
Lon Babby, the Suns president of basketball operations, didn't want to discuss Richardson's status with the team.
"He is a very valued member of our team," said Babby. "I'll just leave it at that."
Richardson will look at all his options, including playing outside the United States, if he becomes a free agent next July.
"I want to be here in Phoenix. I like playing for this team. I'm happy, and I think they are happy with me, but sure, I'd consider playing overseas," he said. "That's something I'd have to seriously look at. It would be an adventure. It's another option for me. It's something other guys will be looking at, too."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Why Blazers gave Roy a max contract[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Brandon Roy | Trail Blazers[/h5]
The Blazers signed Brandon Roy to a five-year, $82 million extension on Aug. 6, 2009. Many wonder if the Blazers knew the extent of Roy's knee issues and if they did, why would they give him a max contract?
Blazers president Larry Miller told The Oregonian on Thursday that they did indeed know Roy was missing the meniscus in both of his knees. Miller says they gave Roy the max deal because he deserved it.
"When he was drafted, we knew there were problems with his knees," Miller said. "When we talked about his extension last summer, it did come into play and into the discussions. But at the end of the day, he was the face of turning this organization and franchise around ... it just made all the sense in the world to give him the deal we gave him. There was some consideration given to (his knees) -- but as we looked at it and talked -- we decided he has earned this. He has earned this max contract regardless of what problems might come along."
Roy has been suffering from a sore left knee. He did not play on Thursday and will also miss Saturday's game against Utah.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Blazers request an injury exception[/h3]
9:03AM ET
[h5]Portland Trail Blazers[/h5]
According to The Oregonian, the Blazers have begun the process of filing a request with the NBA to receive a disabled player exception due to Greg Oden's season-ending injury.
The Blazers, if the exception is granted, would be able to acquire a player by either a trade or free agency for half of Oden's $6.8 million salary.
According to the newspaper, general manager Rich Cho is not sure how long it will take for the NBA to rule on the request.
The Blazers can't complete their request until after Oden's microfracture surgery on Friday.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]What will the Blazers do with Oden?[/h3]
8:43AM ET
[h5]Greg Oden | Trail Blazers[/h5]
UPDATE: Blazers president Larry Miller says the team has not given up on Oden and believes the $8.8 million qualifying offer will be tendered by the June 30 deadline to restrict the oft-injured center.
"If Greg Oden plays up to his potential he is worth that," Miller told The Oregonian. "We will see where (rehabilitation) things are at that level. But at this point, I don't see us not giving the offer if Greg is doing the things we need to see him doing to get back on the court.
"That's how I feel. If he is doing those things, we want to keep Greg around. I don't feel like I'm ready to give up on Greg Oden. I don't think anybody in our organization is ready."
-- Nick Borges
----
Now that Greg Oden has once again suffered a season-ending injury, the speculation will intensify whether the center has a future in Portland.
Oden's contract expires at the end of the season and the Blazers will need to decide if they'll try to deal him by the February trade deadline, give him a qualifying offer by June 30, 2011 -- to keep him a restricted free agent-- or just let him leave as an unrestricted free agent.
Some around the league don't think the Blazers will restrict Oden because the qualifying offer is worth $8,788,681.
"No way," one executive told CBSSports.com. "Tough situation."
Oden's qualifying offer is an "enormous number," another executive said. "I think there's a chance that they won't."
-- Nick Borges
[h5]J.A. Adande[/h5]
Oden has lost a lot of money
http://[h3]One of Jackson's T's rescinded[/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Stephen Jackson | Bobcats[/h5]
According to Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer, the league office rescinded one of the four technical fouls called against Stephen Jackson this season.
Each technical foul costs $2,000. Jackson was fined $50,000 earlier this season for berating officials after a loss to the Detroit Pistons.
The league has also rescinded technical fouls this season for Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Arron Afflalo, Kobe Bryant, Eric Gordon, Paul Millsap, Anderson Varejao, Tyson Chandler, Kevin Durant, Derrick Favors and David West.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Greene back as a starter[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Donte Greene | Kings[/h5]
Donte Greene started the first game of the season at small forward, but didn't play in five of the next eight games, as Omri Casspi was given the spot.
According to The Sacramento Bee, Green was told by head coach Paul Westphal that he'll start at small forward for the "foreseeable future."
Green came to camp out of shape and admits his work ethic could have been better.
"I wasn't working as hard as I should have been," Greene said. "I've definitely been on top of that working out with Pooh Jeter and Bobby Jackson, just coming in before practice and even at night, getting up shots and working."
"It's my turn, so I've got to go out there and lock up and hopefully get some wins," Greene added.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Suns will be cautious with Nash[/h3]
7:34AM ET
[h5]Steve Nash | Suns[/h5]
Steve Nash missed Thursday's game in Orlando due to a sore groin and the plan is to be cautious with the point guard.
"It just doesn't make any sense if you look long-term," Suns head coach Alvin Gentry told The Arizona Republic. "If it was left up to him, he would still go out and play because that's who he is. He probably shouldn't have played (Wednesday night in Miami) but that's who he is."
"It's maybe a little bit (worse). It just doesn't make sense to push it. We've played four games in five days and he's logged a lot of minutes. He plays all out all the time. If he's out there, he's going to play all out. He's going to be fine."
Thursday was the first time Nash missed a game since Feb. 23.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]When will Azubuike return?[/h3]
7:03AM ET
[h5]Kelenna Azubuike | Knicks[/h5]
Kelenna Azubuike, recovering from patellar tendon surgery last November, would like to play by Thanksgiving, but head coach Mike D'Antoni thinks it will be closer to Jan. 1 before the swingman is on the active roster.
"It's about that time," Azubuike tells Newsday. "It's getting close. I can smell it."
"His gait's still got to get better, but that's up to the trainers," said D'Antoni. "Like I've said before, I don't see it before Christmas or after Christmas. I just don't see it, but, hey, surprise me, because I'd love to be surprised. He deserves it. He's been working hard and he's a great kid. We could use him."
Azubuike has participated in some full-court scrimmages over the past week, but he has not gone through an entire practice.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Murphy on the trade block[/h3]
6:49AM ET
[h5]Troy Murphy | Nets[/h5]
According to The Star-Ledger, power forward Troy Murphy will "probably" be traded this season. Murphy lost his starting spot to Kris Humphries three games ago.
Murphy was asked on Thursday if he wanted to be traded, but he didn't answer the question.
"I'm just trying to get better every day," he said. "Just trying to improve every single day. Trying to improve, get better and better, (and) be a better player. Every day."
Derrick Favors, the No. 3 pick in the June draft, will probably start at some point during the season, if he's not included in a trade for Carmelo Anthony. That is another reason why Murphy and his $11.9 million expiring contract could be dealt.
According to the newspaper, head coach Avery Johnson has spoken twice to Murphy about the power forwards role with the team.
"It's a game-by-game situation," Johnson said. "He worked hard in the weight room today, and we'll just keep it going day-to-day, game-by-game. We're going to communicate as much as we need to, and that's pretty much where we are right there."
Murphy's agent, Dan Fegan, who also represents Humphries, is confident there will be a positive ending for the situation with the Nets.
"Throughout his career, Troy has proven himself to be one of the very best 3-point shooting big men and one of the best rebounders. He still is," Fegan told the New York Post. "I have great respect for both Avery and Billy (GM King) and I am confident everything will work out."
-- Nick Borges
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Favors makes Murphy expendable
http://[h3]Taylor still upbeat about Wolves start[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Minnesota Timberwolves[/h5]
Even though the Wolves are just 4-9, owner Glenn Taylor is relatively pleased with the start of the season.
"Actually, I'm really upbeat considering that (injured) Jonny Flynn and Martell Webster haven't played at all," Taylor told the Pioneer Press on Thursday. "And those are guys who certainly are among the top seven players on our team.
"We lost two games (season opener against Sacramento and at Charlotte) in that last minute that we could have won. So you look at everything, there was a good chance that we could almost be 50-50 at this time."
The Wolves, who won only 15 games last season, play the Lakers at home on Friday night.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Redd eyes Feb. return with Bucks[/h3]
6:15AM ET
[h5]Michael Redd | Bucks[/h5]
Michael Redd is working his way through his recovery from left knee surgery to repair torn ligaments. Redd is still targeting a return in February and wants it to be with the Bucks.
Redd is entering the final year of his contract with the team and there's the possibility the team will try to use his $18.3 million salary in a trade by the Feb. 24 deadline.
"It's not complicated for me," Redd told the Journal Sentinel. "I just want to get back on the court and do what I love to do. I'm under contract still, so I can't speak any other way. My intent is to come back here (to Milwaukee) in February. As long as I'm a Milwaukee Buck, I have an obligation to help this team be the best it can be."
Redd says it would mean a lot to put on his No. 22 Bucks uniform again.
"Just the act of putting on the uniform again would be awesome," Redd said. "The last time I wore a uniform I was walking off with an ACL (tear). It would be one of the highlights of my career, to be honest with you. A lot of people thought I would retire or quit and that's just not my DNA. The doctors have told me I can come back and be at 100 percent. I'm relying on them. That's the bottom line. I'm going to be back."
Damn Dirk.
Kevin Durant and the Thunder need to find another gear to make the West playoffs.
If you could pick only one of them, which do you think is more likely to make the playoffs: Indiana or Oklahoma City?
Seems obvious, doesn't it? The Pacers are a fairly uninteresting collection of B-list talent and haven't made the postseason since the last time Tony Parker was single, while the Thunder entered the season as the darlings of the league and boast two All-Star-caliber perimeter players in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. At 7-4 against the Pacers' 5-5, Oklahoma City also has a better record. The Thunder, it seems, are the obvious choice.
Not so fast.
Play out the season based on the results of games to date, adjust for the massive disparity in strength between the two conferences, and you reach a surprising conclusion: Indy's odds of qualifying for the playoffs appear to be significantly better than the Thunder's.
[h4]HOLLINGER'S PLAYOFF ODDS[/h4]
Check your team's chances of making
it to the playoffs.
• Playoff Odds »
That's the result of our simulation of the rest of the season using the Playoff Odds tool, which launches for 2010-11 today. The method, if you'll recall, is that we play out the rest of the season 5,000 times and tabulate the results, using the current Power Rankings as our base to set the odds of any individual game.
We also allow for home-court advantage, and this early in the season we use a "regression to the mean" component; that way we tend to avoid overrating a team based on a particularly hot or cold start. (If we didn't do this, we'd find ourselves saying things like, "Based on its 10-0 start, Team X appears likely to win 75 games.")
Of course, there will always be factors for which the computerized method can't compensate. Portland, for instance, projects to have a 70.5 percent chance of making the postseason, but that's based on a Power Ranking largely built with Brandon Roy in the lineup. If he can't participate in their final 69 games, one presumes the Blazers' odds diminish substantially.
Here's another common occurrence that throws people when they look at the playoff odds: Often, a conference will have more than eight teams -- or fewer than eight teams -- with better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is perfectly logical mathematically -- in fact, you could have all 15 teams in the conference with better than 50 percent odds, since if the games were completely random, each team's odds would be 53.3 percent. As long as the percentages add up to 800 in each conference and no single team has more than 100, any split of the odds among the 15 teams is kosher.
Thus, the current situation we have in the East, where only seven teams project as likely to make the playoffs. This doesn't mean that the East will have only seven playoff teams (although I'd heartily support such a resolution), but rather that the probability of attaining the last spot is split nearly evenly among several fairly awful teams.
As for the Pacers and Thunder? Here's how the Playoff Odds see it: Thanks to the Pacers' easier schedule in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers and Thunder project to finish the season with identical 41-41 records. And since the projected playoff cut-line is at 37 wins in the East but 44 wins in the West, that translates into much better postseason odds for the Pacers.
Indy qualified for the postseason in 67.4 percent of our simulations, with the No. 7 seed its most likely landing spot. Oklahoma City? The Thunder made it only 43.2 percent of the time, with ninth place their most frequent endpoint. Even if a team projected to finish ahead of them (such as Portland) falls off the pace, the Thunder have to hold off three other challengers in Houston, Memphis and Golden State, all of whom project to win at least 38 games.
In contrast, the three teams projected to share No. 9 in the East -- Toronto, Detroit and New York -- average only 34 wins in our simulations. So the Pacers have a great deal more wiggle room than the Thunder.
We see this happen every season in the two conferences, when Western Conference teams enter the lottery and not the playoffs because they have the bad luck to play in the West instead of the East. This doesn't mean Indiana is a better team. Although the current Power Rankings would make Indiana a slight favorite on a neutral court, that's unlikely to hold up all season. But the Pacers don't need to be better; in fact, they can be substantially worse, because they're in a much easier neighborhood.
So, as strange as it sounds, the Pacers are in a much better position to make the playoffs than the more celebrated Thunder squad, based on how they've played to date.
A few more questions on the Playoff Odds:
Why so conservative?
You'll notice that no teams project to win 60 games and only five project to win more than 50. This results from two phenomena. First, the regression-to-the-mean component mentioned above is a factor. It will become less of one as the season goes on, but for now it retains a healthy skepticism that any team is as good (or bad) as we've seen so far.
Second, however, is an important trend that I haven't seen folks account for: The bottom-feeders have become a lot better, and those wins have to come from somewhere. Last season New Jersey and Minnesota combined to win 27 games between them, and five other teams lost at least 55 games.
This year? Only four teams project to lose more than 50, and none appear headed anywhere near the abysmal orbit the Nets and Wolves occupied a year ago. The worst projected records belong to Minnesota and Sacramento, both at 24-58; that's twice as many games as the Nets won in 2009-10.
We're likely to see some movement toward the poles as the year goes on and the regression-to-the-mean component fades away, but it still stands to reason that the standings will be more compressed than those of other recent seasons. It's difficult to have a bunch of 60-win teams unless there are some equally awful teams to offset them at the bottom.
How do the Heat project so well?
Miami is "just" 7-4, but the Heat own the league's best Power Ranking thanks to what is far and away the NBA's best scoring margin. Additionally, based on Power Rankings, Miami has already played two of the three toughest games on its schedule (at Boston, at New Orleans).
In their final 71 games, based on current Power Rankings, they have two toss-ups (at Boston, at Lakers) and will be favored in the other 69. That's how we arrive at Miami going 51-20 the rest of the way and landing a game ahead of Boston for the East's top seed.
New Orleans ahead of the Lakers?
The Hornets have placed extremely well in the early going, but naturally we should be skeptical about whether they can keep it up.
While New Orleans projects to beat out the Lakers for the West's top seed by two games, in this case what the computer doesn't know may be of crucial importance: Namely, that L.A. has been playing without Andrew Bynum, and its defense has suffered as a result. I still expect the Lakers to be the West's No. 1 seed when all is said and done.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the striation we're seeing in the West. Only New Orleans and San Antonio have established themselves as potential foils for L.A. After that is a morass of five teams projected to win 44-48 games, followed by early disappointments like Oklahoma City, Houston and (arguably) Memphis. The West remains the deeper, better conference, but at the top the East may be more powerful.
Who are the mortal locks?
You'll see some teams listed with odds at 100 percent, which obviously conveys a greater deal of certainty than you might think since we're still in the first month of the season.
Two notes on those situations: First, a team can miss the playoffs in up to two of the 5,000 simulations and still show up as "100.0" because we round to the first decimal.
Second, we run 5,000 simulations ... not a million. There are any number of ways a team like, say, Miami, could miss the playoffs, but most of them appear to be unlikely in the extreme. So we can't say, definitely, that the Heat are 100 percent certain to make the postseason until they've mathematically clinched. We can say, however, that they're within rounding-error distance.
Thus far we have only three cases where a team's playoff odds are better than 99.5 percent: Boston, Miami and New Orleans are the lucky trio who can feel free to start printing playoff tickets. Boston can take comfort in a top-four seed, too, as the Celtics have a 99.6 percent shot to win the Atlantic Division (The Celtics project to win it by 23 games and be the division's only playoff team).
On the other hand, three teams are basically out of it already. In the West, the Clippers, Kings and Timberwolves appear to have virtually no chance at the postseason, with a combined 0.6 percent probability that any of them make it.
That may seem especially harsh with the Kings (3-7), given that a Houston team with a worse record still shows a 35.2 percent probability. But Sacramento has played the league's easiest schedule thus far -- their opponents have a .374 opponent winning percentage when not playing the Kings -- and played six of its 10 games at home. Houston, in contrast, has played one of the NBA's toughest slates.
The Kings sit at 28th in the Power Rankings after a miserable home loss to Team Mozgov on Wednesday and would likely need to get well over .500 to make the postseason. Thus, the piddling 0.2 percent chance this morning's Playoff Odds give them seems entirely appropriate.
[h3][/h3]
Kevin Durant and the Thunder need to find another gear to make the West playoffs.
If you could pick only one of them, which do you think is more likely to make the playoffs: Indiana or Oklahoma City?
Seems obvious, doesn't it? The Pacers are a fairly uninteresting collection of B-list talent and haven't made the postseason since the last time Tony Parker was single, while the Thunder entered the season as the darlings of the league and boast two All-Star-caliber perimeter players in Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. At 7-4 against the Pacers' 5-5, Oklahoma City also has a better record. The Thunder, it seems, are the obvious choice.
Not so fast.
Play out the season based on the results of games to date, adjust for the massive disparity in strength between the two conferences, and you reach a surprising conclusion: Indy's odds of qualifying for the playoffs appear to be significantly better than the Thunder's.
[h4]HOLLINGER'S PLAYOFF ODDS[/h4]
Check your team's chances of making
it to the playoffs.
• Playoff Odds »
That's the result of our simulation of the rest of the season using the Playoff Odds tool, which launches for 2010-11 today. The method, if you'll recall, is that we play out the rest of the season 5,000 times and tabulate the results, using the current Power Rankings as our base to set the odds of any individual game.
We also allow for home-court advantage, and this early in the season we use a "regression to the mean" component; that way we tend to avoid overrating a team based on a particularly hot or cold start. (If we didn't do this, we'd find ourselves saying things like, "Based on its 10-0 start, Team X appears likely to win 75 games.")
Of course, there will always be factors for which the computerized method can't compensate. Portland, for instance, projects to have a 70.5 percent chance of making the postseason, but that's based on a Power Ranking largely built with Brandon Roy in the lineup. If he can't participate in their final 69 games, one presumes the Blazers' odds diminish substantially.
Here's another common occurrence that throws people when they look at the playoff odds: Often, a conference will have more than eight teams -- or fewer than eight teams -- with better than a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs. This is perfectly logical mathematically -- in fact, you could have all 15 teams in the conference with better than 50 percent odds, since if the games were completely random, each team's odds would be 53.3 percent. As long as the percentages add up to 800 in each conference and no single team has more than 100, any split of the odds among the 15 teams is kosher.
Thus, the current situation we have in the East, where only seven teams project as likely to make the playoffs. This doesn't mean that the East will have only seven playoff teams (although I'd heartily support such a resolution), but rather that the probability of attaining the last spot is split nearly evenly among several fairly awful teams.
As for the Pacers and Thunder? Here's how the Playoff Odds see it: Thanks to the Pacers' easier schedule in the Eastern Conference, the Pacers and Thunder project to finish the season with identical 41-41 records. And since the projected playoff cut-line is at 37 wins in the East but 44 wins in the West, that translates into much better postseason odds for the Pacers.
Indy qualified for the postseason in 67.4 percent of our simulations, with the No. 7 seed its most likely landing spot. Oklahoma City? The Thunder made it only 43.2 percent of the time, with ninth place their most frequent endpoint. Even if a team projected to finish ahead of them (such as Portland) falls off the pace, the Thunder have to hold off three other challengers in Houston, Memphis and Golden State, all of whom project to win at least 38 games.
In contrast, the three teams projected to share No. 9 in the East -- Toronto, Detroit and New York -- average only 34 wins in our simulations. So the Pacers have a great deal more wiggle room than the Thunder.
We see this happen every season in the two conferences, when Western Conference teams enter the lottery and not the playoffs because they have the bad luck to play in the West instead of the East. This doesn't mean Indiana is a better team. Although the current Power Rankings would make Indiana a slight favorite on a neutral court, that's unlikely to hold up all season. But the Pacers don't need to be better; in fact, they can be substantially worse, because they're in a much easier neighborhood.
So, as strange as it sounds, the Pacers are in a much better position to make the playoffs than the more celebrated Thunder squad, based on how they've played to date.
A few more questions on the Playoff Odds:
Why so conservative?
You'll notice that no teams project to win 60 games and only five project to win more than 50. This results from two phenomena. First, the regression-to-the-mean component mentioned above is a factor. It will become less of one as the season goes on, but for now it retains a healthy skepticism that any team is as good (or bad) as we've seen so far.
Second, however, is an important trend that I haven't seen folks account for: The bottom-feeders have become a lot better, and those wins have to come from somewhere. Last season New Jersey and Minnesota combined to win 27 games between them, and five other teams lost at least 55 games.
This year? Only four teams project to lose more than 50, and none appear headed anywhere near the abysmal orbit the Nets and Wolves occupied a year ago. The worst projected records belong to Minnesota and Sacramento, both at 24-58; that's twice as many games as the Nets won in 2009-10.
We're likely to see some movement toward the poles as the year goes on and the regression-to-the-mean component fades away, but it still stands to reason that the standings will be more compressed than those of other recent seasons. It's difficult to have a bunch of 60-win teams unless there are some equally awful teams to offset them at the bottom.
How do the Heat project so well?
Miami is "just" 7-4, but the Heat own the league's best Power Ranking thanks to what is far and away the NBA's best scoring margin. Additionally, based on Power Rankings, Miami has already played two of the three toughest games on its schedule (at Boston, at New Orleans).
In their final 71 games, based on current Power Rankings, they have two toss-ups (at Boston, at Lakers) and will be favored in the other 69. That's how we arrive at Miami going 51-20 the rest of the way and landing a game ahead of Boston for the East's top seed.
New Orleans ahead of the Lakers?
The Hornets have placed extremely well in the early going, but naturally we should be skeptical about whether they can keep it up.
While New Orleans projects to beat out the Lakers for the West's top seed by two games, in this case what the computer doesn't know may be of crucial importance: Namely, that L.A. has been playing without Andrew Bynum, and its defense has suffered as a result. I still expect the Lakers to be the West's No. 1 seed when all is said and done.
Of more interest, perhaps, is the striation we're seeing in the West. Only New Orleans and San Antonio have established themselves as potential foils for L.A. After that is a morass of five teams projected to win 44-48 games, followed by early disappointments like Oklahoma City, Houston and (arguably) Memphis. The West remains the deeper, better conference, but at the top the East may be more powerful.
Who are the mortal locks?
You'll see some teams listed with odds at 100 percent, which obviously conveys a greater deal of certainty than you might think since we're still in the first month of the season.
Two notes on those situations: First, a team can miss the playoffs in up to two of the 5,000 simulations and still show up as "100.0" because we round to the first decimal.
Second, we run 5,000 simulations ... not a million. There are any number of ways a team like, say, Miami, could miss the playoffs, but most of them appear to be unlikely in the extreme. So we can't say, definitely, that the Heat are 100 percent certain to make the postseason until they've mathematically clinched. We can say, however, that they're within rounding-error distance.
Thus far we have only three cases where a team's playoff odds are better than 99.5 percent: Boston, Miami and New Orleans are the lucky trio who can feel free to start printing playoff tickets. Boston can take comfort in a top-four seed, too, as the Celtics have a 99.6 percent shot to win the Atlantic Division (The Celtics project to win it by 23 games and be the division's only playoff team).
On the other hand, three teams are basically out of it already. In the West, the Clippers, Kings and Timberwolves appear to have virtually no chance at the postseason, with a combined 0.6 percent probability that any of them make it.
That may seem especially harsh with the Kings (3-7), given that a Houston team with a worse record still shows a 35.2 percent probability. But Sacramento has played the league's easiest schedule thus far -- their opponents have a .374 opponent winning percentage when not playing the Kings -- and played six of its 10 games at home. Houston, in contrast, has played one of the NBA's toughest slates.
The Kings sit at 28th in the Power Rankings after a miserable home loss to Team Mozgov on Wednesday and would likely need to get well over .500 to make the postseason. Thus, the piddling 0.2 percent chance this morning's Playoff Odds give them seems entirely appropriate.
[h3][/h3]
[h3]Ford: Bogdanovic's stock could rise[/h3]
4:34PM ET
[h5]Bojan Bogdanovic[/h5]
After a 2010 NBA draft that saw zero international players go in the lottery, the 2011 NBA draft is shaping up to have some solid international talent.
Currently, ESPN's Chad Ford has Jan Vesely (No. 6), Jonas Valanciunas (No.and Donatas Motiejunas (No. 16) high on his 2011 Big Board.
But Bojan Bogdanovic, a center from Croatia, could join them as potential lottery picks as the season progresses.
Ford explains why:
[h5]ESPN's Chad Ford[/h5]
Bogdanovic a skilled scorer
http://[h3]Does Oden have a future in OKC?[/h3]
3:52PM ET
[h5]Greg Oden | Trail Blazers[/h5]
With news that Greg Oden won't be playing basketball this season due to another knee injury, focus now turns to his future.
And as an expected restricted free agent next summer, other teams could come calling for Oden.
Could one such team be the Thunder?
"It would only be the greatest low-risk, high-reward maneuver we've ever seen [GM Sam] Presti pull," wrote Darnell Mayberry of the Oklahoman. "It?s not like the Thunder couldn?t use even a marginally healthy Oden to aid its quest for a title. Nenad Krstic, Cole Aldrich and Byron Mullens, the Thunder's current cast of centers, certainly won't fool anyone into thinking they're championship caliber."
While this is an intriguing option -- especially the pairing of Oden and Kevin Durant, who want back-to-back at No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2007 NBA Draft -- there's a sizable hitch here.
Blazers president Larry Miller was fairly adamant in saying the team will offer Oden his $8.8 million qualifying offer which will make him a restricted free agent.
It seems an enormous risk the Thunder would offer more than that to a guy who will only end up playing 82 games in four seasons after 2010-11 is complete -- though terms of a new collective-bargaining agreement could change the dollar amount.
Of course, if that qualifying offer is not tenured, Oden could be had for far less, and the Thunder could make a little more sense for a future Oden destination.
-- Ryan Corazza
http://[h3]The latest on the Hornets' sale[/h3]
2:52PM ET
[h5]New Orleans Hornets[/h5]
For several months now, it's been expected the Hornets will change hands from owner George Shinn to minority partner Gary Chouset.
But the sale continues to hang in limbo and nothing has been completed yet.
In the Weekend Dime, ESPN's Marc Stein has an update on the situation, with one source saying the sale could finally come to a close by the end of the year.
Here's Stein on what it will mean for the franchise:
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Chouset may be willing to spend more
http://[h3]Yao out at least another two weeks[/h3]
2:29PM ET
[h5]Yao Ming | Rockets[/h5]
UPDATE: So much for another week for Yao.
According to Johnathan Feigen of the Houston Chronicle, Yao will miss at least another two weeks.
"It's probably more for conditioning," he tweeted. "Foot fine. Ankle has bone bruise."
In his absence, Brad Miller and Jordan Hill will see the majority of minutes at center for Houston.
-- Ryan Corazza
---
Yao Ming sprained his left ankle against the Wizards last Wednesday and Tuesday he said he needs "about another week" to recover from the injury.
"It's pretty simple," Yao told the Houston Chronicle. "We just wait for the feeling to get normal, no soreness and (when) I can push off with no soreness or pain. At that time, I will come back to the court. It's all about the ankle. It's improving."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Teams willing to gamble on Melo [/h3]
12:58PM ET
[h5]Carmelo Anthony | Nuggets[/h5]
Conventional wisdom holds that if a team is going to pull the trigger on a Carmelo Anthony trade, that'd like some sort of assurance he's willing to sign an extension with them.
After all, what's the point of trading away assets for half a season with the gifted scorer if he's just going to leave in the summer?
But as ESPN's Marc Stein reports in the Weekend Dime, there are a more than few teams that are willing to take this risk with the hope that once Melo comes to town, he'll want to stay.
Stein explains:
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Marc Stein[/h5]
Dallas, Houston would take Melo without an extension agreement
http://[h3]Randolph's decreasing role[/h3]
12:39PM ET
[h5]Anthony Randolph | Knicks[/h5]
UPDATE: D'Antoni has confirmed Randolph may not be playing much for the foreseeable future.
"I told him, right now, this is all about the team and I've got to go with my gut and he might play and he might not," D'Antoni said, according to the New York Daily News. "Right now, it's all about the Knicks. We'll worry about individuals after we get out of the hole a little bit. And then we'll start talking about long-term strategies. But right now, it's just to win today."
---
When the Knicks acquired Anthony Randolph in a sign-and-trade with Golden State for David Lee over the summer, many believed the talented, yet inconsistent youngster, free from Don Nelson, would thrive in Mike D'Antoni's system.
There was even talk he could grab a spot in the starting lineup if he performed well.
But so far, things have worked out far different. Randolph had a rough preseason, and an ankle injury had him out for part of this young season. Randolph is only averaging 11.2 minutes a game, and Wednesday night in the team's win over the Kings, he received a DNP from coach D'Antoni.
"There's been too many mistakes, not enough rebounds, blocked shots or accurate jump shots," wrote Marc Beman of the New York Post. "He's more apt to shoot an airball from 20 feet than sink it. Turnovers have been an issue ... It will be interesting to see how D'Antoni plays it from here. They broke their six-game losing streak without him. D'Antoni, whose been under fire the past few days, right now cares more about his future than Randolph's."
As Dec. 15 creeps closer -- the date signings from over the summer can be dealt in trades, and when Carmelo Anthony trade talks may again pick up -- we suppose it's possible the Knicks may dangle Randolph as a young talent, which the Nuggets are reportedly seeking in return for Anthony.
But his resume so far this season isn't exactly one Denver may be looking at with excitement right now.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]Jared Zwerling of ESPN New York[/h5]
To contend, Knicks bench needs to contribute
http://[h3]Davis could be ready next week[/h3]
12:25PM ET
[h5]Ed Davis | Raptors[/h5]
UPDATE: Mike Ganter of the Toronto Sun reported Thursday that Davis is now wearing a lighter brace, and he could return as early as next week.
"Monday in Miami he went through his first full contact practice," wrote Ganter. "It all points to a return to the court as early as next week."
---
Raptors rookie Ed Davis had knee surgery on Sept. 20, and the initial timetable for his return was slated for six weeks.
Six weeks has come and gone, and though Davis isn't game ready, "he did a little three-on-three [last Tuesday] that was about his first semi-serious work," according to Doug Smith of the Toronto Star.
Smith goes on to speculate it could be another two to three weeks until Davis gets up to speed.
Whenever Davis is able to return to the lineup, expect him to get some minutes off the bench at power forward behind Reggie Evans and Amir Johnson.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Davis may be on course to a career backup
http://[h3]Thunder out of the playoffs?[/h3]
11:56AM ET
[h5]Oklahoma City Thunder[/h5]
Heading into last season, many believed the Thunder were still a year or two away from making a step into the playoffs.
But after 50 wins and a competitive six-game series against the Lakers in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs as the No. 8 seed, larger expectations were placed on the team this year.
Some even said they might be able to grab the No. 2 seed behind the Lakers.
But as ESPN's John Hollinger writes in Friday's PER Diem, his Playoff Odds -- released Friday -- aren't looking too kindly on the Thunder. Currently, the Playoff Odds only give Oklahoma City a 43.2 percent chance of making the postseason.
More from Hollinger:
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Pacers have better chance of making playoffs than Thunder right now
http://[h3]Golden State's head-coaching future[/h3]
11:30AM ET
[h5]Keith Smart | Warriors[/h5]
UPDATE: While we've noted below Smart is off to a solid start for the Warriors, Tim Kawakami of the San Jose Mercury News throws another name into the ring as a possible replacement should it come to that.
"Multiple people say that Mike Brown is a name to remember when/if the Warriors are surveying the field for a new coach," he tweeted.
---
When it was announced Keith Smart would be installed as the new head coach of the Warriors before this season, reports stated the team was working on a multi-year deal with him.
And at the media session new team owners Joe Lacob and Peter Gruber held Monday in San Francisco, it was revealed the multi-year deal is actually just a two-year deal with next season being a team option, according to Sam Amick of FanHouse.
"That being said, Lacob said Smart is not interim and should be viewed as a coach who they picked as opposed to next in line," added Amick.
While this may be true, there's no denying the new owners certainly have the option of ditching Smart after this season if they see it as fit.
Yet, the Warriors are out to a solid 7-4 start, and are playing defense (10th in defensive efficiency at 102.9) -- something that wasn't really the case under Don Nelson.
So early on, Smart seems to be earning that second year.
-- Ryan Corazza
http://[h3]Phoenix at the trade deadline[/h3]
11:21AM ET
[h5]Steve Nash | Suns[/h5]
Last week, we dipped into Steve Nash trade rumors, and the consensus seemed to be it was all conjecture for now.
Nash isn't actually on the trade block -- even if teams are inquiring -- but if the Suns stumble and appear out of the playoff picture by February's trade deadline, it's possible the team may ease up and look to rebuild via a trade of their prized, yet aged, point guard.
And that's a line of thinking that's extended into this week. Ken Berger of CBS Sports wrote Wednesday that rival executives believe Suns owner Robert Sarver will be looking to wheel and deal at the deadline if the Suns are out of the playoff picture.
"Sarver has been one of the most vocal in a new wave of owners in the collective bargaining fight, and rival executives believe he'll be on a rampage at the trade deadline if the Suns are out of the playoff hunt," he wrote.
But might it be other players besides Nash the team shops?
"Connected sources pointed to Suns' owner Robert Sarver's affinity towards Nash and said when you're talking about the owner's favorite player, there is little room for discussion," wrote Steve Kyler of HOOPSWORLD. "Sources said Sarver wants Nash to retire a Sun and there is little that could happen to change that."
So while there's some indication Nash might not be dangled at the deadline, it seems if the team is struggling, they figure to be players at the trade deadline regardless.
-- Ryan Corazza
[h5]ESPN's Chad Ford[/h5]
For now, Nash talk looks like conjecture
http://[h3]Walker and Williams tussle for minutes[/h3]
10:43AM ET
[h5]Shawne Williams | Knicks[/h5]
According to Marc Berman of the New York Post, an altercation broke out between Bill Walker and Shawne Williams on Thursday during practice. Other players, including Eddy Curry, helped defuse the dust up between the two reserve small forwards.
Berman writes: "It was a bizarre scene the way Williams carried on. Williams, the former Pacers first-round bust who beat out Patrick Ewing Jr. for the final roster spot and has marijuana arrests on his resume, appears itching to play."
Walker is ahead of Williams in the playing rotation, but that could change if the Knicks don't improve their three-point shooting.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Birdman makes progress[/h3]
10:31AM ET
[h5]Chris Andersen | Nuggets[/h5]
According to The Denver Post, head coach George Karl said Thursday that Andersen's return to game action would be "sooner than later."
Andersen has targeted Dec. 1 as the day he would like to play for the first time this season.
-- Nick Borges
----
According to The Denver Post, center/power forward Chris "Birdman" Andersen has made significant progress from his right knee rehab and even dunked the ball on Thursday.
Andersen has tentatively targeted a return around Thanksgiving when he'll be able to play.
"He's anxious and ambitious to get back as quick as possible," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "I think the next three days, he'll probably (practice) some -- I don't know if he'll run up the court in 5-on-5, but I think he'll participate in all 5-on-0 and shooting activities and stuff like that. We're starting that process to get him to play 5-on-5."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Smart won't go small[/h3]
10:21AM ET
[h5]Keith Smart | Warriors[/h5]
The Warriors are missing power forward David Lee and if Don Nelson was still in charge he may have chosen to play a small lineup to counter the lack of height on the floor.
Keith Smart is in his first season as head coach of the team and he has no plans to deviate from the current playing rotation.
"We've had so much success thus far when we've won the rebounding game, came close or being even. I've got to keep it that way because right now that has been pretty good for us," Smart tells The Oakland Tribune. "I don't want to lose the rebounding edge. I've got to keep the rebounding edge as close as possible until David gets back."
Vladimir Radmanovic, Brandan Wright and rookie Jeff Adrien will man the power forward spot until Lee is able to come back.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Lee leaves hospital[/h3]
10:07AM ET
[h5]David Lee | Warriors[/h5]
Warriors power forward David Lee was discharged from Stanford Hospital on Thursday. He was admitted on Monday because of an infection in his left elbow.
According to The Oakland Tribune, Lee will be re-examined next Tuesday. Lee won't be cleared to play until the infection is completely eradicated and the wound is sealed.
Lee may be out for another 10-14 days.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Richardson's next contract[/h3]
9:48AM ET
[h5]Jason Richardson | Suns[/h5]
Jason Richardson is playing in the final year of his contract and is hoping to sign an extension, but is aware it may not happen.
"I'd love to get something done (with my contract), get it out of the way, so I don't have to do that this summer. That's my hope," Richardson told FanHouse Thursday night. "But nothing serious is being talked about at this point. A contract year can be a distraction, so I'd rather avoid that and just get something done."
Richardson, who is making $14.44 million this season, thinks he would have signed a new deal by now, if there wasn't the uncertainty of the next collective bargaining agreement.
"If it wasn't for the CBA, I think it (an extension) would already be done for me," Richardson said. "I wish it was, but no one knows what the contracts will look like next year."
Lon Babby, the Suns president of basketball operations, didn't want to discuss Richardson's status with the team.
"He is a very valued member of our team," said Babby. "I'll just leave it at that."
Richardson will look at all his options, including playing outside the United States, if he becomes a free agent next July.
"I want to be here in Phoenix. I like playing for this team. I'm happy, and I think they are happy with me, but sure, I'd consider playing overseas," he said. "That's something I'd have to seriously look at. It would be an adventure. It's another option for me. It's something other guys will be looking at, too."
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Why Blazers gave Roy a max contract[/h3]
9:18AM ET
[h5]Brandon Roy | Trail Blazers[/h5]
The Blazers signed Brandon Roy to a five-year, $82 million extension on Aug. 6, 2009. Many wonder if the Blazers knew the extent of Roy's knee issues and if they did, why would they give him a max contract?
Blazers president Larry Miller told The Oregonian on Thursday that they did indeed know Roy was missing the meniscus in both of his knees. Miller says they gave Roy the max deal because he deserved it.
"When he was drafted, we knew there were problems with his knees," Miller said. "When we talked about his extension last summer, it did come into play and into the discussions. But at the end of the day, he was the face of turning this organization and franchise around ... it just made all the sense in the world to give him the deal we gave him. There was some consideration given to (his knees) -- but as we looked at it and talked -- we decided he has earned this. He has earned this max contract regardless of what problems might come along."
Roy has been suffering from a sore left knee. He did not play on Thursday and will also miss Saturday's game against Utah.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Blazers request an injury exception[/h3]
9:03AM ET
[h5]Portland Trail Blazers[/h5]
According to The Oregonian, the Blazers have begun the process of filing a request with the NBA to receive a disabled player exception due to Greg Oden's season-ending injury.
The Blazers, if the exception is granted, would be able to acquire a player by either a trade or free agency for half of Oden's $6.8 million salary.
According to the newspaper, general manager Rich Cho is not sure how long it will take for the NBA to rule on the request.
The Blazers can't complete their request until after Oden's microfracture surgery on Friday.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]What will the Blazers do with Oden?[/h3]
8:43AM ET
[h5]Greg Oden | Trail Blazers[/h5]
UPDATE: Blazers president Larry Miller says the team has not given up on Oden and believes the $8.8 million qualifying offer will be tendered by the June 30 deadline to restrict the oft-injured center.
"If Greg Oden plays up to his potential he is worth that," Miller told The Oregonian. "We will see where (rehabilitation) things are at that level. But at this point, I don't see us not giving the offer if Greg is doing the things we need to see him doing to get back on the court.
"That's how I feel. If he is doing those things, we want to keep Greg around. I don't feel like I'm ready to give up on Greg Oden. I don't think anybody in our organization is ready."
-- Nick Borges
----
Now that Greg Oden has once again suffered a season-ending injury, the speculation will intensify whether the center has a future in Portland.
Oden's contract expires at the end of the season and the Blazers will need to decide if they'll try to deal him by the February trade deadline, give him a qualifying offer by June 30, 2011 -- to keep him a restricted free agent-- or just let him leave as an unrestricted free agent.
Some around the league don't think the Blazers will restrict Oden because the qualifying offer is worth $8,788,681.
"No way," one executive told CBSSports.com. "Tough situation."
Oden's qualifying offer is an "enormous number," another executive said. "I think there's a chance that they won't."
-- Nick Borges
[h5]J.A. Adande[/h5]
Oden has lost a lot of money
http://[h3]One of Jackson's T's rescinded[/h3]
8:12AM ET
[h5]Stephen Jackson | Bobcats[/h5]
According to Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer, the league office rescinded one of the four technical fouls called against Stephen Jackson this season.
Each technical foul costs $2,000. Jackson was fined $50,000 earlier this season for berating officials after a loss to the Detroit Pistons.
The league has also rescinded technical fouls this season for Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Arron Afflalo, Kobe Bryant, Eric Gordon, Paul Millsap, Anderson Varejao, Tyson Chandler, Kevin Durant, Derrick Favors and David West.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Greene back as a starter[/h3]
7:52AM ET
[h5]Donte Greene | Kings[/h5]
Donte Greene started the first game of the season at small forward, but didn't play in five of the next eight games, as Omri Casspi was given the spot.
According to The Sacramento Bee, Green was told by head coach Paul Westphal that he'll start at small forward for the "foreseeable future."
Green came to camp out of shape and admits his work ethic could have been better.
"I wasn't working as hard as I should have been," Greene said. "I've definitely been on top of that working out with Pooh Jeter and Bobby Jackson, just coming in before practice and even at night, getting up shots and working."
"It's my turn, so I've got to go out there and lock up and hopefully get some wins," Greene added.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Suns will be cautious with Nash[/h3]
7:34AM ET
[h5]Steve Nash | Suns[/h5]
Steve Nash missed Thursday's game in Orlando due to a sore groin and the plan is to be cautious with the point guard.
"It just doesn't make any sense if you look long-term," Suns head coach Alvin Gentry told The Arizona Republic. "If it was left up to him, he would still go out and play because that's who he is. He probably shouldn't have played (Wednesday night in Miami) but that's who he is."
"It's maybe a little bit (worse). It just doesn't make sense to push it. We've played four games in five days and he's logged a lot of minutes. He plays all out all the time. If he's out there, he's going to play all out. He's going to be fine."
Thursday was the first time Nash missed a game since Feb. 23.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]When will Azubuike return?[/h3]
7:03AM ET
[h5]Kelenna Azubuike | Knicks[/h5]
Kelenna Azubuike, recovering from patellar tendon surgery last November, would like to play by Thanksgiving, but head coach Mike D'Antoni thinks it will be closer to Jan. 1 before the swingman is on the active roster.
"It's about that time," Azubuike tells Newsday. "It's getting close. I can smell it."
"His gait's still got to get better, but that's up to the trainers," said D'Antoni. "Like I've said before, I don't see it before Christmas or after Christmas. I just don't see it, but, hey, surprise me, because I'd love to be surprised. He deserves it. He's been working hard and he's a great kid. We could use him."
Azubuike has participated in some full-court scrimmages over the past week, but he has not gone through an entire practice.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Murphy on the trade block[/h3]
6:49AM ET
[h5]Troy Murphy | Nets[/h5]
According to The Star-Ledger, power forward Troy Murphy will "probably" be traded this season. Murphy lost his starting spot to Kris Humphries three games ago.
Murphy was asked on Thursday if he wanted to be traded, but he didn't answer the question.
"I'm just trying to get better every day," he said. "Just trying to improve every single day. Trying to improve, get better and better, (and) be a better player. Every day."
Derrick Favors, the No. 3 pick in the June draft, will probably start at some point during the season, if he's not included in a trade for Carmelo Anthony. That is another reason why Murphy and his $11.9 million expiring contract could be dealt.
According to the newspaper, head coach Avery Johnson has spoken twice to Murphy about the power forwards role with the team.
"It's a game-by-game situation," Johnson said. "He worked hard in the weight room today, and we'll just keep it going day-to-day, game-by-game. We're going to communicate as much as we need to, and that's pretty much where we are right there."
Murphy's agent, Dan Fegan, who also represents Humphries, is confident there will be a positive ending for the situation with the Nets.
"Throughout his career, Troy has proven himself to be one of the very best 3-point shooting big men and one of the best rebounders. He still is," Fegan told the New York Post. "I have great respect for both Avery and Billy (GM King) and I am confident everything will work out."
-- Nick Borges
[h5]ESPN's John Hollinger[/h5]
Favors makes Murphy expendable
http://[h3]Taylor still upbeat about Wolves start[/h3]
6:29AM ET
[h5]Minnesota Timberwolves[/h5]
Even though the Wolves are just 4-9, owner Glenn Taylor is relatively pleased with the start of the season.
"Actually, I'm really upbeat considering that (injured) Jonny Flynn and Martell Webster haven't played at all," Taylor told the Pioneer Press on Thursday. "And those are guys who certainly are among the top seven players on our team.
"We lost two games (season opener against Sacramento and at Charlotte) in that last minute that we could have won. So you look at everything, there was a good chance that we could almost be 50-50 at this time."
The Wolves, who won only 15 games last season, play the Lakers at home on Friday night.
-- Nick Borges
http://[h3]Redd eyes Feb. return with Bucks[/h3]
6:15AM ET
[h5]Michael Redd | Bucks[/h5]
Michael Redd is working his way through his recovery from left knee surgery to repair torn ligaments. Redd is still targeting a return in February and wants it to be with the Bucks.
Redd is entering the final year of his contract with the team and there's the possibility the team will try to use his $18.3 million salary in a trade by the Feb. 24 deadline.
"It's not complicated for me," Redd told the Journal Sentinel. "I just want to get back on the court and do what I love to do. I'm under contract still, so I can't speak any other way. My intent is to come back here (to Milwaukee) in February. As long as I'm a Milwaukee Buck, I have an obligation to help this team be the best it can be."
Redd says it would mean a lot to put on his No. 22 Bucks uniform again.
"Just the act of putting on the uniform again would be awesome," Redd said. "The last time I wore a uniform I was walking off with an ACL (tear). It would be one of the highlights of my career, to be honest with you. A lot of people thought I would retire or quit and that's just not my DNA. The doctors have told me I can come back and be at 100 percent. I'm relying on them. That's the bottom line. I'm going to be back."
mr marcus
Banned
- May 3, 2010
- 26,572
- 5,415
bosh will only get off against soft defenses....aka phoenix ...
mr marcus
Banned
- May 3, 2010
- 26,572
- 5,415
bosh will only get off against soft defenses....aka phoenix ...
- Sep 1, 2004
- 25,508
- 667
Pritchard is still great, right? Knowing about the knee issues, but he "deserved" 82 million to lose in the first round every year
but didnt you %+#+! up and down about how they need to give roy the max deal NOW so they wont make him mad?
gibson with 17 points and 18 boards and put dirk on lock down in the 4th.. raise that trade vaule for denver
- Sep 1, 2004
- 25,508
- 667
Pritchard is still great, right? Knowing about the knee issues, but he "deserved" 82 million to lose in the first round every year
but didnt you %+#+! up and down about how they need to give roy the max deal NOW so they wont make him mad?
gibson with 17 points and 18 boards and put dirk on lock down in the 4th.. raise that trade vaule for denver
- Sep 22, 2009
- 5,261
- 11
Darko with 23/16/5/6
- Sep 22, 2009
- 5,261
- 11
Darko with 23/16/5/6
- Feb 29, 2000
- 88,762
- 47,973
i have comcast northern cali and they have 1-2 hd games per night on channel 450. today it was the heat game and the kings game. smh
- Feb 29, 2000
- 88,762
- 47,973
i have comcast northern cali and they have 1-2 hd games per night on channel 450. today it was the heat game and the kings game. smh
- Sep 1, 2004
- 25,508
- 667
The New Orleans Hornets and Toronto Raptors are in serious discussions on a five-player trade that would send Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless to the Raptors for Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks, a source told ESPN.com Saturday.
Stojakovic
The deal was close to being completed Friday night, but was held up over the amount of cash the Hornets would send to the Raptors in the trade.
Still, the holdup was not believed to be insurmountable, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Stojakovic is in the final year of his contract, earning $14.25 million, and has fallen out of the rotation in New Orleans, averaging just 7.5 points in less than 15 minutes per game playing behind Marco Belinelli, whom the Hornets acquired in another trade with the Raptors during the summer.
Bayless
Bayless is averaging 4.5 points and 2.5 assists as the backup point guard behind Chris Paul.
Jack, who is earning $4.6 million and has two more seasons left on his contract, has started all 13 games for the Raptors, averaging 10.8 points and 4.5 assists. But he has played an average of only 26 minutes per night, basically operating in a time-share with Jose Calderon at point guard.
Andersen, a backup center, is averaging 5.1 points and 3.1 rebounds, and Banks (in the final year of his contract, making $4.85 million) has appeared in only three games this season
- Sep 1, 2004
- 25,508
- 667
The New Orleans Hornets and Toronto Raptors are in serious discussions on a five-player trade that would send Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless to the Raptors for Jarrett Jack, David Andersen and Marcus Banks, a source told ESPN.com Saturday.
Stojakovic
The deal was close to being completed Friday night, but was held up over the amount of cash the Hornets would send to the Raptors in the trade.
Still, the holdup was not believed to be insurmountable, according to a source with direct knowledge of the talks, who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Stojakovic is in the final year of his contract, earning $14.25 million, and has fallen out of the rotation in New Orleans, averaging just 7.5 points in less than 15 minutes per game playing behind Marco Belinelli, whom the Hornets acquired in another trade with the Raptors during the summer.
Bayless
Bayless is averaging 4.5 points and 2.5 assists as the backup point guard behind Chris Paul.
Jack, who is earning $4.6 million and has two more seasons left on his contract, has started all 13 games for the Raptors, averaging 10.8 points and 4.5 assists. But he has played an average of only 26 minutes per night, basically operating in a time-share with Jose Calderon at point guard.
Andersen, a backup center, is averaging 5.1 points and 3.1 rebounds, and Banks (in the final year of his contract, making $4.85 million) has appeared in only three games this season
- Nov 14, 2007
- 8,956
- 39
I thought Gibson would be trashhhh coming in but he has been a beast.
- Nov 14, 2007
- 8,956
- 39
I thought Gibson would be trashhhh coming in but he has been a beast.
- Aug 11, 2000
- 2,005
- 26
OKC in the mix for Troy Murphy maybe?? I havent seen him play too much, I dont know what he can do. Could he play alongside Ibaka?
(I know NJ wants to trade Murphy for Melo, Im just putting that out there in case that doesnt happen)
(I know NJ wants to trade Murphy for Melo, Im just putting that out there in case that doesnt happen)
- Aug 11, 2000
- 2,005
- 26
OKC in the mix for Troy Murphy maybe?? I havent seen him play too much, I dont know what he can do. Could he play alongside Ibaka?
(I know NJ wants to trade Murphy for Melo, Im just putting that out there in case that doesnt happen)
(I know NJ wants to trade Murphy for Melo, Im just putting that out there in case that doesnt happen)
- Sep 5, 2010
- 92,819
- 129,147
I'm surprised that's all New Orleans wants/can get for Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless.
- Sep 5, 2010
- 92,819
- 129,147
I'm surprised that's all New Orleans wants/can get for Peja Stojakovic and Jerryd Bayless.
