- May 1, 2007
- 3,405
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OFFICIAL 2009 DODGERS SEASON THREAD : Season Over. Congratulations Phillies.
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by cincoseisdos,
- Start date
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
You should have taken Broxton with you.
- Sep 1, 2006
- 17,626
- 456
Originally Posted by bright nikes
oh yeah, don't forget:
[h3]All-Star Selection Day[/h3]
Coverage starts at 10:00 PCT on TBS - Billingsley, Broxton, Blake, and Kemp would seem to be possibilities.
Giants are tryna make moves, so many rumors going around: Vic Martinez, Dye, Freddy Sanchez, Adam LaRoche.
Yo 562:
>
Suzanne Marques > Christine Devine, yes? (left side with flower dress)
Marques yes, of course.
Still doesn't change the face that Mrs. Devine is
But Lauren Sanchez is fuego . And she looks like she's up for anything,straight up sleezebag
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
Lauren Sanchez has skin like my grandma though
Suzanne Marques on the other hand, damn she posted a picture of her in this bikini on twitter and I can't find it anymore
Suzanne Marques on the other hand, damn she posted a picture of her in this bikini on twitter and I can't find it anymore
- Feb 5, 2003
- 5,258
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sharon tay > all these old skeezers you guys are posting
- Sep 1, 2006
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<3 her too
BUT
Soledad o'brien is my top girl when telemundo and univision arent in consideration
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
Don't mind her mosquito bites.
- Feb 5, 2003
- 5,258
- 11
i love the flip on channel 4 in the morning as well but she does not look very photogenic in some pics.
- May 1, 2007
- 3,405
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| 2009 Power Rankings: July 6 | ||||
| RK (LW) | TEAM | REC | COMMENT | |
 | 1 (1) | Dodgers | 52-30 | The Dodgers have the best MLB record since May 4, when they were 18-8. |
 | 2 (2) | Red Sox | 49-32 | David Ortiz has at least one hit in 24 of his past 29 games, raising his average from .185 to .225. |
 | 3 (3) | Yankees | 48-33 | Mariano Rivera has six saves during the Yankees' current run, winning 10 of their past 11 games. |
 | 4 (6) | Angels | 45-35 | Vladimir Guerrero hit twice as many home runs over the weekend (2) as he did in the entire month of June (1). |
 | 5 (10) | Rangers | 45-35 | Since losing three in a row, the Rangers have won five straight games, averaging nearly eight runs a game. |
 | 6 (5) | Tigers | 44-37 | The Tigers have led the AL Central every day since May 16. |
 | 7 (4) | Rays | 44-39 | The Rays have scored a total of seven runs over their past four games, all losses. |
 | 8 (7) | Cardinals | 45-39 | Albert Pujols leads MLB with 29 intentional walks, five fewer than he had for the entire 2008 season. |
 | 9 (9) | Giants | 44-37 | All-Stars Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have combined to go 18-4 with a 2.35 ERA. |
 | 10 (10) | Phillies | 42-37 | Despite their poor home record (16-22), the Phillies have maintained their NL East lead. |
 | 11 (
| Brewers | 43-39 | The Brewers are 6-10 since June 19, when they led the NL Central by 1.5 games. |
 | 12 (14) | Twins | 43-40 | The Twins have won seven of their past 10, moving to three games over .500 for the first time this season. |
 | 13 (13) | Rockies | 42-39 | The Rockies have lost three of four in July, after finishing with an MLB-best 21-7 record in June. |
 | 14 (20) | White Sox | 42-40 | The White Sox finished the first half of their schedule with the AL's second-best ERA (3.94). |
 | 15 (1 | Marlins | 43-40 | The Marlins have won four straight home series to move within one game of the first-place Phillies in the NL East. |
 | 16 (15) | Mariners | 42-39 | Felix Hernandez (8-3, 2.62, 114 K), who secured his first All-Star berth, has gone eight straight games without a loss. |
 | 17 (17) | Cubs | 40-39 | Ted Lilly, the Cubs' only representative in the All-Star Game, got his 99th career victory Sunday. |
 | 18 (12) | Blue Jays | 42-41 | The Blue Jays are 15-27 since May 18, when they were 27-14 and led the AL East by 3.5 games. |
 | 19 (19) | Reds | 40-40 | Edwin Encarnacion has gone 1-for-9 since his return to the lineup July 3 and is now hitting .125 (9-for-72) for the season. |
 | 20 (21) | Braves | 39-42 | The Braves have not been over .500 since June 12, when they were 30-30. |
 | 21 (16) | Mets | 39-42 | David Wright has gone 5-for-40 (.125) and the Mets have scored a total of 25 runs in losing eight of their past 10 games. |
 | 22 (22) | Astros | 39-41 | RHP Roy Oswalt is 3-1 and 2.13 ERA in his past five outings. |
 | 23 (23) | Orioles | 36-46 | The Orioles (12-26) have the worst road record in the American League. |
 | 24 (24) | Pirates | 37-45 | Freddy Sanchez, who leads NL second basemen with a .316 BA, will be in the All-Star Game for the third time in four years. |
 | 25 (25) | Royals | 35-46 | Miguel Olivo, who leads the Royals with 13 home runs, is only three away from his personal record (16 in 2006 and 2007). |
 | 26 (27) | Padres | 35-46 | Since their 10-game winning streak (May 15-25), the Padres are 12-24. |
 | 27 (26) | Athletics | 34-46 | Closer Andrew Bailey, the only rookie selected to the All-Star Game, has not allowed a run in 10.1 innings. |
 | 28 (2 | Indians | 33-50 | The Indians have lost 14 of their past 18 to become the first AL club with 50 losses. |
 | 29 (29) | Diamondbacks | 33-49 | Dan Haren, who leads the NL in ERA (2.16), has lost only one of his past nine outings. |
 | 30 (30) | Nationals | 24-55 | The Nationals are the only major league team with a run differential of minus-100 or lower (-101). |
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
- Feb 27, 2003
- 548
- 10
You should have taken Broxton with you.
Just catching up.
Would you guys bring back Beimel for a player to be named later?
- Feb 27, 2003
- 548
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- Sep 1, 2006
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Where would he go though? Who would we send? IMO Brent "cokehands" Leach has become a very reliable left handed arm in the pen. Plus we haveMientkiewicz on the loom, and possibly have Schmidt make a return sometime soon as well althugh I know he won't be rushed.
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
Yeah, there's no room for him.
We have: Ohman, Kuo, Leach, Elbert.
Plus he wanted to bring his rockstar diva +*! attitude to Washington, that's what he gets
Anyways Matt Kemp was on ESPN first take
-la fans came out to sd and it felt like home
-they showed love to manny in sd
-he doesn't know how he'll be cheered for in NY
-doesn't know if manny is bringing family (hometown)
-great vets: pierre, blake, o-dog
-so happy for bills and brox bcus he grew up with them in the minors
-vote for kemp, facebook, bobblehead group / prizes
-"don't stand patt vote for matt"
Comon fellas we need to vote.
We have: Ohman, Kuo, Leach, Elbert.
Plus he wanted to bring his rockstar diva +*! attitude to Washington, that's what he gets
Anyways Matt Kemp was on ESPN first take
-la fans came out to sd and it felt like home
-they showed love to manny in sd
-he doesn't know how he'll be cheered for in NY
-doesn't know if manny is bringing family (hometown)
-great vets: pierre, blake, o-dog
-so happy for bills and brox bcus he grew up with them in the minors
-vote for kemp, facebook, bobblehead group / prizes
-"don't stand patt vote for matt"
Comon fellas we need to vote.
- May 1, 2007
- 3,405
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- Apr 15, 2007
- 6,131
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Ken Rosenthal doesn't know what he's talking about.
Is The All-Star Game The Biggest Remaining Game for Dodgers?
By Sky Andrecheck
A week from today, the Major League All-Star Game will be be played between the American and National leagues. Traditionally the greatest exhibition in all of sports, the game changed in 2003 when Bud Selig decreed that the winner of the All-Star game would have home field advantage during the World Series. While the move (which I love) has largely accomplished its purpose of rejuvinating the game and inspiring competitive instincts in the players, the game is still somewhat treated as an exhibition. Players still occasionally beg out of the game and the managers still try to get everybody in the game, even if it means taking some of the best players out. Terry Francona actually said he was hoping for a game ending NL homer last year as the game went to extra-innings. For him, the All-Star game was secondary to regular season games.
The All-Star game's slogan is "This Time It Counts", but how much does it really count? Obviously Francona and company don't think it counts for very much. Is home field advantage in the World Series really worth playing for? Or are players better off focusing on the regular season?
Earlier this season, I debuted Championship Leverage Index, an attempt to measure the impact and importance of a game on a team's chances of winning the World Series. We can apply this same methodology to the All-Star game. Of course, during the regular season, an additional win adds to the probability of winning the World Series by increasing the team's chances of making the playoffs and thus winning a championship. In the case of the All-Star game, winning the game helps only if the team makes it to the World Series.
How Much Is An All-Star Game Win Worth?
Assuming that a team does make it to the Fall Classic, how much does having the home field help? Historically, having home field in an individual game adds about 4% to a team's probability of victory. This number has been larger during the playoffs, but this likely has something to do with the best teams playing more home games, so it's a misleading guide. Taking this 4% mark and assuming the teams are even, a World Series team would have a 54% chance of victory in its home games and a 46% chance of victory in its road games. How does this translate during an entire 7-game series? Turns out that the mathematics show that a team which has the home field advantage in the series as a whole will win 51.26% of series.
Overall, the extra 1.26% is pretty small - there's probably a reason that MLB doesn't tout this number in its "This Time It Counts" promos for the All-Star game - but in something as big as the World Series, it helps to have every advantage possible. Of course, the game only adds 1.26% for a team actually playing in the World Series - to other teams, the game is worthless. Apportioning this advantage blindly among an average of 15 teams per league, an All-Star win adds 0.084% to each team's chances of winning the World Series. Thus, if you were oblivious to the standings, and your league won the All-Star game, you could rejoice that your team's chances had just gone up by 8 one hundredths of one percent. This time it counts, eh?
Indeed, 0.08% sounds impossibly small, until you consider that the average regular season win doesn't help you much more, clocking in at a mere 0.28% according to my prior work linked to above. Dividing these figures, we find that the All-Star game has a Championship Leverage Index of .30, meaning that the game is about 30% as meaningful as the average regular season game.
You can be the judge of whether 30% of an average regular season game is more or less than you might have thought. I suspect it's more. 30% of an average game is not a lot, but it's more meaningul than any Nationals game has been since May, and it's more meaningful than many teams' regular season games will be in about a month's time. What's more, I doubt that Francona would be willing to wish away even 30% of a regular season Sox game.
All-Star Championship Leverage Index by Individual Team
Of course, while on average the All-Star game is worth about 30% of an average regular season game, we can calculate this separately for individual teams, with dramatically differing results. Teams which are far back in the race need every win they can get their hands on, and home field advantage in the World Series means little. The chance that one regular season win will prove decisive is low, but the chance that home field advantage in the World Series will make a whit of difference is even lower. For teams in the thick of a pennant race, the World Series advantage is useful, however each regular season win has a fairly high chance of being crucial, rendering a regular season win far more valuable than an All-Star game win.
However, the All-Star game takes on the most importance to teams which are far ahead in the standings and have a high likelihood of making it to the Fall Classic. For these teams, a regular season game also means relatively little, since a playoff birth is all but locked up. In this scenario, is the All-Star game actually more important than a regular season game?
Looking at this year's Dodgers, let's aim to find out. As of Sunday night, the Dodgers were sitting at 52-30 with a 7.5 game lead in the NL West and a 9 game lead in the NL Wild Card. When I previously calculated Leverage Index, I assumed each team had a 50% chance to win each game and that each team had a 50% chance to win each playoff series. Here I used a more refined method, using Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA-adjusted winning percentages as the probability of victory and playing out the play-off series according to baseball's home field advantage rules.
Using this methodology and simulating 10 million seasons, I calculated that the Dodgers have a 39.0923% chance of advancing to the World Series. After a regular season win, this chance increased to 39.2781%, while after a regular season loss, this chance decreased to 38.8368%. On average, this resulted in a change of 0.215% in probability to advance to the World Series and hence, a 0.108% change in probability of winning the World Series (0.215% times 50%). Thus, a regular season game is worth about 0.108% in championship probability to the Dodgers (only about 39% as important as an average game). An All-Star win, however, will increase their chances of winning the World Series from 19.5462% (39.0923*.5) to 20.0387% (39.0923*.5126), a difference of 0.4925%. Comparing this mark to 0.108% for a regular season game and we find that the All-Star game is not only worth more than a regular season game to Los Angeles, it is worth vastly more than than a regular season game. In fact, the All-Star game is worth somewhere on the order of 4 to 5 times more than a current regular season Dodgers game.
A fuss was made over Chad Billingsley bowling over the catcher during a Dodgers-Padres game this past weekend. Would Billingsley have done so at the All-Star game? Likely not. But this analysis shows that if there is one game the rest of the season in which LA players should sacrifice life and limb, it is Tuesday night's "exhibition" contest.
The following chart shows a few other teams, and the All-Star game vs. regular season game impact on the team's chances of winning the World Series. The Championship Leverage Index for each was computed relative to the baseline of the average game (0.28%).
As you can see, only the Dodger players have more incentive in the All-Star game than in their next regular season game. With an All-Star game Championship Leverage Index of 1.76, the All-Star game is not only more important than their next regular season game, but is likely the most important game of the entire season. Regular season Champ LI's don't usually get that high until at around mid-season, and considering the way that the Dodgers have run away with the NL West, they likely have not had a game this important during the entire year.
However, the game also means a great deal to Boston and other AL East contenders who expect to be playing October baseball. For these teams the game is not merely an exhibition, but a game nearly as important as any other on the schedule. For the Red Sox, the All-Star game is about 66% more important than the average game, although not as important as the key games they are playing now. Still, for Francona's Sox, the All-Star game is about 85% as important as their next regular season game. For the other teams listed, the All-Star game is not nearly as important as their next regular season game, drifting to nearly meaningless for fringe teams like the Astros.
For baseball fans, the All-Star game is must-see TV because it's the one chance to see baseball's stars compete against each other. For fans of the Dodgers, it's must-see TV because it's by far the most important game LA will play until October.
- Apr 15, 2007
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Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
I would not trade Kershaw or Bills for Halladay. No way in hell, they should just settle for a middle of the rotation type starter - a teams demand for an ACEis gonna be absurd.
I didn't read that Ken Rosenthal article, but isn't it weird that an all-star game determines who gets home field advantage for the World Series? Iknow they want to make it competitive and such ... but its stupid.
I didn't read that Ken Rosenthal article, but isn't it weird that an all-star game determines who gets home field advantage for the World Series? Iknow they want to make it competitive and such ... but its stupid.
- Apr 15, 2007
- 6,131
- 14
Before that, it was alternated between the NL/AL. (which is why the 88 team had HFA)
The All-Star game is actually slightly less arbitrary.
- Sep 5, 2005
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It's a travesty.
An exhibition game doesn't count, players go to the All-Star game to relax, play the game for kicks and play for the fans of course.
Bud Selig is a tool for that one.
- Feb 27, 2003
- 548
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possibly have Schmidt make a return sometime soon
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
[h1]Belisario to have MRI[/h1]
First concrete development indicating that I might have been on the wrong side of the bullpen debate. From Dylan Hernandez of The Times:
Belisario's pitch counts the past two weeks:
From June 9-July 4, Belisario pitched 13 2/3 consecutive scoreless innings while stranding all five inherited runners.[th=""]Date[/th] [th=""]6/20[/th] [th=""]6/21[/th] [th=""]6/22[/th] [th=""]6/23[/th] [th=""]6/24[/th] [th=""]6/25[/th] [th=""]6/26[/th] [th=""]6/27[/th] [th=""]6/28[/th] [th=""]6/29[/th] [th=""]6/30[/th] [th=""]7/1[/th] [th=""]7/2[/th] [th=""]7/3[/th] [th=""]7/4[/th] [th=""]7/5[/th] [th=""]7/6[/th]
Pitches 35 0 0 0 0 18 13 0 8 11 0 33 0 0 22 8 0
To be fair to myself, I did point out when Jonathan Broxton was resting his injured toe, Belisario pitched on three consecutive days, throwing 52 pitches. That was when I got nervous. I wonder if he was hiding any soreness in the ensuing days, even though he pitched well -- or whether it was a delayed reaction.
and it #@#%#$% starts. Belli has had a couple HORRIBLE outings, withhis past Tommy John surgery ... I wouldn't be surprised if there was something bothering him in there.
- Sep 5, 2005
- 15,762
- 517
Tommy John surgery patients always have little nicks and complications after, just ask Mr. Kuo and Eric Gagne.
Those "labor" innings he put in have caught up to his arm. It's a shame.
Those "labor" innings he put in have caught up to his arm. It's a shame.
Los Angeles
formerly bright nikes
- Apr 11, 2004
- 23,225
- 4,898
Just give him some rest and see how it goes ... although some of our guys (Stults & Milton) haven't fared too well from that. I'm just sayin'
Tonight's lineup:
Furcal, SS
Hudson, 2B
Ramirez, LF
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Kemp, CF
Kershaw, P
Tonight's lineup:
Furcal, SS
Hudson, 2B
Ramirez, LF
Blake, 3B
Loney, 1B
Martin, C
Ethier, RF
Kemp, CF
Kershaw, P
- May 1, 2007
- 3,405
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dont like that lineup, but will see how it goes.
