The whole picture on the Warriors’ potentially final decision to keep Klay Thompson out of any Kevin Love offer
Posted on July 23, 2014 by Tim Kawakami
So all the reports make it clear: Cleveland is apparently willing to put No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins into the offer for Kevin Love, has started to accumulate interesting pieces to re-direct to Minnesota, and that seems to have moved the Love derby to its final stages.
Obviously, this is still up to Minnesota chief Flip Saunders, but there is some presumption that his No. 1 hope was to get the Warriors to put Klay Thompson into an offer, and now Saunders is finally accepting that the Warriors aren’t doing that. (Or he’s making a last attempt to draw the GSWs back into the discussions by nearing a deal with someone else.)
Now attention has switched full-tilt to Cleveland and Wiggins… and maybe late runs by Chicago, Denver and wherever else… Yes, there could finally be closure with the Love scenario, go figure.
Which means: It’s time to debate the Warriors’ decision to keep Klay Thompson out of their offer for Love (even though the Warriors knew adding Thompson could almost certainly get them Love, if they accepted Minnesota’s other terms)… ALL OVER AGAIN!
Well, at least it was time to re-debate this yesterday on Twitter, and I understand that many smart NBA people think the Warriors are being dumb.
I also understand that one or two GSW executives might still hope that co-owner Joe Lacob reconsiders this decision–and those one or two GSW execs might not be thrilled with Jerry West and Steve Kerr for helping to theoretically nudge Lacob to the keep-Klay decision.
All understandable. All of it.
I also understand that Lacob and GM Bob Myers agonized over this and if you agonize over it, and you’re given time to re-think it, you could possibly re-think it just enough to change your mind.
I DO NOT think the Warriors will flip-flop and put Klay T into the deal, but I recognize the possibility, given the magnitude of this deal moment.
But this is just all part of the usual NBA back-and-forth when a star player hits the market… and it’s particularly illustrative of the way Lacob likes his front office to run. Strong voices expressing strong opinions, some no-holds-barred debate, then Lacob and Myers make the decision.
And, according to multiple sources who have remained consistent on this issue for weeks, the Warriors have made their decision: No Klay Thompson in the offer to Minnesota.
As I’ve said and written many times before, the decision isn’t strictly the GSWs deciding that Thompson is more valuable than Love. It’s more complicated than that.
Let’s try to put it all in perspective from the Warriors vantage point, though I know it will still be boiled down to Klay-Love by many, oh well…
* Marcus Thompson II said it best: The GSWs have decided the potential value upgrade from David Lee to Love at power forward wasn’t worth giving up Klay T.
Remember, nobody in the league values Lee as much as the Warriors do. That’s their call and their right, but it’s also just a plain fact.
Lacob in particular doesn’t believe Lee should ever be considered a throw-in on a big deal–and that Lee’s defense isn’t as bad as many say (that’d be me!), that Lee’s hard work on the floor and attitude in the locker room cannot be discounted when you add up his value to the GSWs.
As USA Today’s Sam Amick has pointed out, the Warriors are very worried that Love’s defense is no better–or might be worse–than Lee’s D.
And if the Warriors take Thompson out of their perimeter defense, then they are exposing Curry far more than they ever want to… with no guarantee of ever getting another 2-guard who can shoot like Thompson AND defend the opponents’ toughest perimeter players.
The Warriors do not believe Iguodala is that guy any more, by the way. He has played small forward almost entirely for the last two seasons; and with his continuing knee problems, I don’t think Iguodala projects as anything other than a very good SF for the remainder of his prime years.
Which gives Thompson even more value. Even if he costs the mini-max (starting at about $15.5M a year, in 2015-16), Thompson does things for the Warriors that they consider integral to who they are and why they can be dangerous in the West playoffs.
Love would obviously do that, too, but the upgrade with Love minus Thompson just isn’t enough in the Warriors’ minds to justify all the other things they’d have to do in this deal.
You can argue these points all you want (and I would argue most of them, frankly), but this is the GSW thinking on the Lee/Love issue: Lee is getting severely under-valued and Love is getting a little over-valued and in their minds, the true delta is less than Klay T’s inherent value.
* Because Minnesota considers Lee a throw-in, every suggestion they’ve made to the Warriors includes shipping Kevin Martin’s remaining $22M back to the Warriors.
Even if the Warriors consider putting Klay into the deal, Minnesota has suggested that the Warriors must take back Martin–reportedly because Minnesota needs that money cleared to take Lee’s remaining $30.5M and to be prepared to pay Thompson’s pending mini-max deal.
The Warriors want no part of Martin’s money (they do not consider him a credible 2-guard replacement for Thompson, even if you disregard Martin’s $7.3M average salary), and they absolutely do not want to put Thompson into the deal and STILL have to take Martin back.
It has been suggested that Martin’s deal isn’t that onerous given the expected leaps in the salary cap (which I will believe when I see it–I think the owners have a great capacity to low-ball the players in every facet that involves money) and the possibility of using the “stretch provision” on Martin’s deal.
However, $22M isn’t minor when the Warriors have so many long-term deals on the books (Iguodala, Bogut, Curry and Curry’s presumed max extension in two summers, if the Warriors are lucky… then add Love’s max extension, again, if the Warriors are lucky)… which would theoretically put the Warriors right on top of the luxury-tax line, even in a bloated cap universe.
A point: Using the “stretch provision” doesn’t make the money go away, like some seem to think; it just extends the length of the deal for cap purposes.
And if you’re a team with massive salaries coming up 2-3-4 years down the road, you don’t want to push extra money any further down the road than you need to.
Again, I think Martin’s deal is a non-starter for the Warriors, especially if Thompson is going out the door as a part of it.
* Then there’s the presumption that, if the Warriors succumb and put Thompson into the deal AND accept Martin coming back… they’d STILL possibly be asked to surrender Harrison Barnes.
That’s what I’ve heard is the heart of this: Let’s say Lacob accepts the concept of trading Klay for Love–because Love is more valuable, no doubt; but how does the deal tip the Warriors’ way if the Warriors also have to add Lee and Barnes and also take back Martin’s money and threaten luxury-tax penalties for three seasons?
The GSWs have run this through a hundred different ways, but I’m told that with what Minnesota has demanded throughout the process, the Warriors can’t quite figure out how a Klay-focused offer would balance their way.
So the Warriors have never put Thompson into the deal. I repeat: It doesn’t mean Lacob and Myers can’t re-consider this at the last moment and try to jump back in.
But I don’t see the Warriors offering Thompson based on the current Minnesota position, and with what Minnesota seems to be asking from Cleveland, I don’t see Minnesota softening it’s bargaining position overall.
By the way, you never want to offer a top asset and still have the other team say, “Fine and what else?”
Cleveland might be in this spot now with Wiggins and the Minnesota discussions.
* If I was making this call for the Warriors–and you can thank God I’m not–I would theoretically be prepared to offer Thompson in a Love package, because Love is a lot more valuable than Lee and because Love and Curry would be a hellacious pick-and-pop combination.
(You may have also heard that I’m not as high on Lee as the Warriors are.)
But I wouldn’t take back Martin’s money, I just wouldn’t.
And I would want some viable 2-guard back in the deal–again, that’s not Martin; if I’m the Warriors and I agree to put Thompson into the deal, I would want Minnesota to put No. 1 pick Zach LaVine in the deal… or for them to go get me another 2-guard via another team.
Also, there is no way I’d let Minnesota use the Klay offer to start the auction up again–you know, go to Cleveland and say we’ve got Klay, now offer us Wiggins plus two extra things, then go back to the Warriors and say, OK, we’ve got Wiggins Plus, we need Klay Plus Plus from you…
That’s part of why the Warriors aren’t offering Thompson in the first place. Once you make the decision to offer Thompson, you’re speeding down Flip Saunders’ rabbit hole and you might not like how it ends up.
I understand Lacob’s decision. I don’t agree with all of it, but I agree with a lot of it.
For now, the Warriors are going with what they’ve got, and they’ve got a new coach who very much wants to coach what they’ve got–with Klay, Lee and Barnes–and then maybe next summer or the summer after that, the Warriors will set themselves up for the next mega-deal.
That’s the complex nature of monster trade talks–they get simplified in the public discourse, but they’re almost always much more complicated than the simple summary.