i swear this thread gon give me hypertension
Let me just drop the facts right quick
Whips argument really has no basis for a multitude of reasons aside from being riddled with bias
1) His prediction of DLo failing to be a valuable player is already trash because his prediction does not include a time frame and any probability of a certain outcome (since any outcome is theoretically possible). A blanket statement, i.e. DLo will not be a star, completely reduces any reasonable ability to evaluate his prediction in the future since he avoided any specifics.
2) I dont even think Whip is asking the right question. Honestly, whether or not DLo is a star doesnt really get at the real issue. A better question may be, will DLo progress enough within the next 3 years to be an asset that contributes greatly to our teams success (5+ win player if you use VORP for example) . With this you can assign a probability that has a specific value and timeframe which you can judge accordingly.
3) Related to number 2. Whip clearly has NO idea about the worth of a draft pick. Ideally, yes, you would like a star with a pick in the top 3. However, thats not to say a first division player would be a failed pick. Take Kemba Walker for example. Or Kyle Lowry. Not really regarded as stars. But if you get that output especially on a rookie contract at any point in the draft, that is a major win and extremely valuable.
4) Whips failure to embrace statistics when forecasting DLos future. How are you going to use his alleged (lack of) effort/hustle/desire/want/whatever word you choose, basically something not quantifiable, as your main unit of analysis? I mean, unless you have some well built model to run statistical forecasts on that we dont know about you cant operationalize that question.
Essential simply is showing a comparison of players similar to DLo at the same stage of their careers (Y1/Y2 and/or <21). He is not saying DLo has similar numbers as Kyrie which means he is going to be as good as Kyrie offensively. He is not making any forecast either I believe besides saying Dlo appears to have a promising career which numbers do validate.
Look im not some Dlo stan. I agree to an extent with some of the negative remarks about his game. But you cant deny numbers. or logic.
If you think im wrong, read some books on cognitive bias or the science of making predictions....