What the top Anthony Davis trade contenders can actually offer
Anthony Davis' request for a trade eight days before the
2019 NBA trade deadline doesn't mean the
New Orleans Pelicans are on the clock. In reality, the clock for Davis starts in the offseason.
Because Davis is not on an expiring contract, there is no urgency for Pelicans GM Dell Demps to take the best available offer now. The team made that clear in its
statement on Monday. The Pelicans also get some helpful clarity: Instead of chasing reckless trades, including moving a potential first-round pick to appease Davis, New Orleans now understands its future more fully.
But while the Pelicans preach patience, what happens if the team receives an offer in the next week that trumps anything the
Boston Celtics could put together on July 1, when
Kyrie Irving's contract is no longer an obstacle?
Here is a look at what the potential suitors can offer in trade talks, who is likely off the table, the challenges each teams faces, the risks involved and what happens if Davis is not traded by the deadline.
The Pelicans' options and why patience is a must
Do you want to retool or have a full rebuild? That is the question the Pelicans' front office will ask when discussing a plan for Davis.
It will be critical for New Orleans to create a team-by-team checklist showing the valuable draft picks, controllable contracts, players who would keep them competitive and expiring deals.
Off the table: Jrue Holiday. The point guard could be the next domino to fall, but New Orleans should hold off on any potential talks until there is a resolution with Davis. Holiday is under contract through 2021-22 (player option) and would be high on the list of many teams if made available.
Draft assets
- Own all future first-round picks (2019-2025)
- Own all future second-round picks (Chicago can swap in 2021)
- Cash to be sent out and received: $5.2 million
- Draft rights to two players
Tradable contracts
1. Anthony Davis: $25.4 million; under contract through the 2020-21 season (has a player option)
- 15 percent trade bonus currently valued at $65,000. If Davis is traded in July, his trade bonus is $4.063 million.
- Davis is not eligible to sign a $240 million supermax extension with his new team.
- Six months after the trade, Davis would be eligible to sign a four-year, $145.6 million extension.
- Davis could sign a new contract with the acquiring team in July 2020 for up to five years, $205.3 million. Signing with a team that has cap space would see Davis secure a four-year, $152.2 million contract.
- Davis will have eight years of service when he is a free agent in 2020 and could go the short-term route like Kevin Durant did with the Warriors. In 2022, Davis would be eligible to sign a projected five-year, $253.8 million contract.
2. *
Nikola Mirotic: $12.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
3. Solomon Hill: $12.3 million; under contract through 2019-20
4. E'Twaun Moore: $8.8 million; under contract through 2019-20
5. *
Julius Randle: $8.6 million; under contract through 2019-20 (has a player option)
6. *
Wesley Johnson: $6.1 million; under contract through 2018-19
7. *
Elfrid Payton: $3 million; under contract through 2018-19
8. *
Darius Miller: $2.2 million; under contract through 2018-19
9. *
Ian Clark: $1.5 million; under contract through 2019-20 (has veto power on any trade)
10. Jahlil Okafor: $1.6 million; under contract through 2019-20
11. *
Cheick Diallo: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
12. *
Tim Frazier: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
13. Frank Jackson: $1.4 million; under contract through 2019-20
14. Kenrich Williams: $838,000; under contract through 2019-20
*Not eligible to be traded after Feb. 7
Complicating factors
- Davis cannot be acquired by the Celtics or Timberwolves while Kyrie Irving and Karl-Anthony Towns are on the roster
Do the Lakers have enough?
Because the
Los Angeles Lakers' roster features eight players selected in the first or second round of the draft since 2016, the Pelicans will look back on college scouting reports, pre-draft interviews and background reports, plus all of the on- and off-court evaluations since these players were drafted. Besides L.A.'s young core, the remaining players on the roster have more value as salary-cap filler since they are on expiring contracts.
To get a deal done, the Lakers' front office will need to make every player available except for
LeBron James. Although the Lakers own all their first-round picks, acquiring Davis would devalue those in the next three seasons, when James and Davis would be paired up.
What the Lakers can offer at the trade deadline is the same package the Pelicans will see come this summer. The only exception is that the Lakers would have to acquire Davis with part of their available cap space, or they can elect to trade all their former first- and second-round picks to match salaries.
Off the table: LeBron James
Draft assets
- Own all future first-round picks (2019-2025)
- Own all their own second-round picks, except for 2019
- Can send out $3.7 million in cash in a trade
- Can receive up to $5.2 million in a trade
- Have the draft rights to two players
Tradable contracts
1. *
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: $12 million; under contract through 2018-19 (has veto power on any trade)
- 15 percent trade bonus: currently valued at $732,000
2. *
Rajon Rondo: $9 million; under contract through 2018-19
3. Lonzo Ball: $7.4 million; restricted free agent in 2021
4. Brandon Ingram: $5.8 million; restricted free agent in 2020 and extension-eligible in July
5. *
Lance Stephenson: $4.4 million; under contract through 2018-19
6. *
Michael Beasley: $3.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
7. Moritz Wagner: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2022
8. Kyle Kuzma: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
9. Josh Hart: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2021
10. *
Ivica Zubac: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2019
11. *
JaVale McGee: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
12. *
Tyson Chandler: $1.3 million; under contract through 2018-19
13. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk: $1.5 million; restricted free agent in 2021
14. Isaac Bonga: $1.0 million; restricted free agent in 2021
*Not eligible to be traded after Feb. 7
Complicating factors
- If there is no deal by the trade deadline, Los Angeles would be left with only seven tradable contracts (not including LeBron's) in the offseason. The Lakers project to have $36 million in room and could use the available cap space as a buffer to make a deal work. They could use their own free agents in a sign-and-trade, but that would require each player to sign off on any deal, and the Pelicans would have to take back salary for players they likely have little interest in.
- The Lakers can add a third max player but would have to sign that free agent first and then acquire Davis in a trade this summer. In this scenario, the Lakers would have to wipe the slate clean and trade all their other players.
- The maximum that the Lakers will have in cap space this summer is $31 million if Davis is acquired at the deadline. That number would decrease if Davis does not waive his trade bonus. Only James and Davis would be on the roster.
Should the Knicks' front office have restraint?
The Knicks have what the Pelicans covet: a franchise player in
Kristaps Porzingis and a lottery pick that could turn into Duke's Zion Williamson. To enter into the Davis sweepstakes, two factors will need to be considered by the Knicks' front office.
The first: Is Davis willing to commit for the foreseeable future when he becomes a free agent in 2020, without Porzingis or even a high lottery pick? Remember, this is a player who has prioritized winning as a deciding factor for asking out in New Orleans. The Knicks would almost mirror what the Pelicans are right now if they acquired Davis.
The second: Is there a comfort level that New York can sign a max free agent this summer? New York would have $45 million in room if Porzingis, its own first-round pick and
Tim Hardaway Jr. were sent to New Orleans. Without a resounding yes to either question, New York should walk if that's the asking price.
Off the table: Nobody
Draft assets
- Own all future first-round picks (2019-2025), including a potential top-five pick in June
- Own the Rockets' second-rounder in 2019, the Hornets' second-round picks in 2020 and 2021, plus their own second-round picks starting in 2022
- Cash to be sent out and received: $5.2 million
- Draft rights to two players
Tradable contracts
1. *
Enes Kanter: $18.6 million; under contract through 2018-19
2. Tim Hardaway Jr.: $17.3 million; under contract through 2020-21
- 15 percent trade bonus: currently valued at $3.77 million. The bonus would be divided and then added to his 2018-19 and 2019-20 salary.
3. Courtney Lee: $12.2 million; under contract through 2019-20
4. Lance Thomas: $7.1 million; under contract through 2019-20
- Contract for next season is non-guaranteed with $1 million in protection if not waived by June 30.
5. *
Mario Hezonja; $6.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
6. *Kristaps Porzingis: $5.7 million; restricted free agent in 2019
7. *
Emmanuel Mudiay: $4.3 million; restricted free agent in 2019
8. Frank Ntilikina: $4.2 million; restricted free agent in 2021
9. Kevin Knox: $3.7 million; restricted free agent in 2022
10. *
Trey Burke: $1.8 million; under contract through 2018-19
11. Luke Kornet: $1.6 million; restricted free agent in 2019 (has veto power on any trade)
12. *
Noah Vonleh: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
13. Mitchell Robinson: $1.5 million; under contract through 2021-22
14. Damyean Dotson: $1.4 million; restricted free agent in 2020
- Contract for next season becomes fully guaranteed if not waived by July 15.
*Not eligible to be traded after Feb. 7
Complicating factors
- Once the trade deadline passes, Porzingis is not immediately eligible for a deal based on his restricted-free-agency status. Any sign-and-trade scenario becomes complicated as a result of base-year compensation.
- Allonzo Trier was signed on Dec. 13 and cannot be traded. The guard cannot be traded in the offseason because of his team option.
The dark horse in Denver
When Kawhi Leonard was made available by San Antonio, both the Lakers and Celtics leaped to the front of the line as the most likely landing spots. In the end, Toronto went under the radar, acquired Leonard in late July and now is in contention to reach the NBA Finals.
The same situation has resurfaced with Boston and Los Angeles when it comes to Anthony Davis, though this time the Nuggets replace Toronto as that sneaky team.
Even if
Nikola Jokic and
Jamal Murray are off the table in any trade discussions, Denver can make a compelling argument, including veterans who can help win now (
Paul Millsapand
Mason Plumlee), the controllable contracts of
Gary Harris and
Will Barton, and young players such as
Malik Beasley,
Juan Hernangomez,
Michael Porter Jr. and
Monte Morris.
Also, don't dismiss the relationship between Nuggets GM Tim Connelly and the Pelicans' front office. Connelly was the assistant GM in New Orleans from 2010 to '13 under Demps.
Off the table: Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray
Draft assets
- Can trade their first-round pick starting in 2021 (will need to eliminate the protection on the 2019 first sent to Brooklyn); own all first-round picks starting in 2020
- Own their own second-round picks in 2023, 2024 and 2025
- Can send out $5.2 million and receive up to $5.1 million
Tradable contracts
1. Paul Millsap: $29.2 million; under contract through 2019-20
- Millsap has a $30 million team option for 2019-20.
2. Gary Harris: $16.5 million; under contract through 2021-22
3. Mason Plumlee: $12.9 million; under contract through 2019-20
4. Will Barton: $11.8 million; under contract through 2022-23
5. *
Trey Lyles: $3.4 million; restricted free agent in 2019
6. Michael Porter Jr.: $2.9 million; restricted free agent in 2022
7. Juan Hernangomez: $2.2 million; restricted free agent in 2020 (can sign a rookie extension this summer)
8. Torrey Craig: $2.0 million; restricted free agent in 2020
9. *
Tyler Lydon: $1.9 million; under contract through 2018-19
10. Malik Beasley: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2020 (can sign a rookie extension this summer)
11. *
Isaiah Thomas: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19
12. Monte Morris: $1.3 million; under contract through 2020-21
13. Jared Vanderbilt: $838K; restricted free agent in 2021
*Not eligible to be traded after Feb. 7
Complicating factors
The pitfalls of breaking up the Sixers' core
There are tough questions facing both Philly and New Orleans that make any deal extremely complicated:
Are the 76ers willing to trade a combination of
Ben Simmons,
Markelle Fultz,
Wilson Chandler and draft picks with the hopes of using the next 17 months to persuade Davis to sign long-term? What happens if
Jimmy Butlerleaves in free agency and Davis bolts the following year? Philadelphia would be left with only
Joel Embiid. Can Davis and Embiid play together, and is Philadelphia committed to tying up more than $50 million per year in frontcourt starters?
What does a Simmons and Fultz combination do for the Pelicans, who already have Jrue Holiday under contract through the 2021-22 season?
Both teams should be hesitant to pursue this type of trade.
Off the table: Joel Embiid
Draft assets
- Own all future first-round picks (2019-2025), the Kings' first in 2019 if it is No. 1, and an unprotected first from Miami in 2021
- Own all future second-round picks (2019-2025)
- Own future second-round picks from Chicago (2019), Sacramento (2019), Brooklyn/New York (2020), Dallas (2020), Denver (2021), Detroit (2021), New York (2021) and Detroit (2023)
- Can send out up to $5.1 million and receive up to $2.7 million in a trade
The tradable contracts
1. *Jimmy Butler: $20.4 million; under contract through 2019-20 (has a player option)
2. *Wilson Chandler: $12.8 million; under contract through 2018-19
3. *
JJ Redick: $12.25 million; under contract through 2018-19 (has veto power on any trade)
- 15 percent trade bonus: currently valued at $373K
4. Markelle Fultz: $8.3 million; restricted free agent in 2021
5. Ben Simmons: $6.4 million; restricted free agent in 2020 (extension-eligible this July)
6. *
Mike Muscala: $5.0 million; under contract through 2018-19
7. *
Justin Patton: $2.7 million; under contract through 2018-19
8. Zhaire Smith: $2.6 million; restricted free agent in 2022
9. *
Furkan Korkmaz: $1.7 million; under contract through 2018-19
10. Landry Shamet: $1.7 million; restricted free agent in 2022
11. Jonah Bolden: $1.7 million; under contract through 2021-22
12. *
T.J. McConnell: $1.6 million; under contract through 2018-19
13. *
Amir Johnson: $1.5 million; under contract through 2018-19 (has veto power on any trade)
*Not eligible to be traded after Feb. 7
Complicating factors
- The 76ers would be left with $10 million in cap space to fill out a roster that features Embiid, Davis, Butler, Shamet, Bolden and Smith. Is that good enough to compete for a championship? Philadelphia could bypass cap space and re-sign free agents Redick and McConnell.
Celtics on the clock but not until July 1
A quirk in the collective bargaining agreement has the Celtics in a holding pattern until July 1. However, despite Boston not being eligible to acquire Davis at the trade deadline while Irving remains on the roster under his current contract, both sides can begin to negotiate the framework on a potential Davis deal now.
Starting the process and not waiting until the offseason gives New Orleans a baseline when comparing trade offers from other teams leading up the deadline. If New Orleans knows that an appealing trade package from Boston is within reach five months from now, then New Orleans should wait this out.
Off the table: Kyrie Irving (free agent),
Marcus Morris (free agent),
Terry Rozier(restricted free agent),
Daniel Theis (restricted free agent),
Brad Wanamaker (restricted free agent),
Jabari Bird (personal reasons)
Draft assets
- Own all future first-round picks (2019-2025)
- Own Sacramento's 2019 first (Nos. 2-30)
- Own Memphis' 2019 first (top-eight protected). Will roll over to 2020 (top-six protected) and 2021 (unprotected). This is the crown jewel of the Celtics' draft assets based on the uncertain futures of Mike Conley and Marc Gasol.
- Own the Clippers' 2019 first (lottery protected). Will roll over to 2020 (lottery protected). If not conveyed, Boston will receive the Clippers' second-round pick in 2022.
- Own all future second-round picks except 2019, which will convey to Memphis if it falls from Nos. 56-60.
- Cash to be sent out and received: $5.6 million
Tradable contracts (2019-20 season)
1. Gordon Hayward: $32.7 million; under contract through 2020-21
- 15 percent trade bonus: valued at $4.9 million in July
2. *
Al Horford: $30.1 million; under contract through 2019-20
- 15 percent trade bonus: valued at $4.5 million in July
3. Marcus Smart: $12.5 million; under contract through 2021-22
4. Jayson Tatum: $7.8 million; restricted free agent in 2021
5. Jaylen Brown: $6.5 million; restricted free agent in 2020 (extension-eligible starting in July)
6. *
Aron Baynes: $5.4 million; under contract through 2019-20
7. Guerschon Yabusele: $3.1 million; restricted free agent in 2021
8. Robert Williams: $1.9 million: restricted free agent in 2022
9. Semi Ojeleye: $1.6 million: restricted free agent in 2021
- Contract becomes guaranteed if not waived by July 1
*Horford and Baynes have player options and cannot be traded until they opt into their contract for 2019-20.
Complicating factors
- Making the money work with Rozier and Morris (free agents), and/or if Horford and Baynes opt out of their contracts. The Celtics would have only seven players to trade, including the $32.7 million contract of Gordon Hayward.