Not sure if I'm allowed to post ESPN Insider articles, but I thought this was a pretty good read. Shows the difference statistically in how we perform with Asik in vs Casspi. Maybe having the Dwight/Asik combo in to start games has been why we always start off so slow?
Identity problem in Houston
It sounds like the pitch for an upcoming installment of ESPN Films' 30 for 30 series: "What if I told you there was an NBA team that couldn't score but survived with tough defense, and there was a team that struggled defensively but lit up the league with its hot shooting? And what if I told you they were the same team?"
Well, through five games, that "two-faced" squad does exist -- and it's the Houston Rockets.
For the Rockets, signing Dwight Howard away from the Los Angeles Lakers -- while crucial -- was only the first step. The challenge for the Houston coaching staff since the start of training camp has been to figure out how to best make use of Howard's unique skills. Five games -- and four wins -- into Howard's Rockets career, that process is ongoing as he prepares to face his former team Thursday night for the first time.
Without an experienced stretch 4 on Houston's roster to play the same role Ryan Anderson and Rashard Lewis played alongside Howard in Orlando, Houston coach Kevin McHale has settled on two completely different partners for Howard. The Rockets are opening games with a pair of traditional centers, Howard and incumbent starter Omer Asik, but usually finish games with 6-foot-9, 225-pound Omri Casspi -- a wing by trade -- playing power forward. The two different lineups have played to stereotype -- and then some.
The "big" lineup
Despite their 4-1 start, Houston has trailed after the first quarter four times in five games, a bad sign for the starting lineup. Even worse? The lone exception came Friday against the Dallas Mavericks, when Asik picked up two fouls in the first minute and went to the bench immediately.
The Asik-Howard combination has been more effective after halftime, putting together third-quarter runs against the Utah Jazz and Portland Trail Blazers. Nonetheless, the big lineup has been outscored by nine points in 60 minutes, per NBA.com/Stats.
With two elite defenders in the paint, the group has been as advertised defensively, holding opponents to a defensive rating (95.7 points per 100 possessions) that would rank fifth in the league. But with two non-shooters down low at the other end, the big lineup has struggled to score. Its 92.3 offensive rating would rank ahead of only the Jazz.
Howard has found room to operate alongside Asik. He is averaging slightly more points per 36 minutes with Asik on the floor (18.2 versus 17.3) and is shooting a similar percentage. It's the Rockets' usual 3-point barrage that has gone missing. With both big men on the floor, Houston has shot just 5-of-24 (20.8 percent) from beyond the arc. While that percentage is sure to progress to the mean, the limited attempts are problematic for a team that has built its offense around the 3-pointer.
One caveat: The Rockets have barely used their intended starting lineup since Patrick Beverley missed three-plus games after straining his abdominal muscle in the opener. Beverley has played just 10 minutes with the Asik/Howard duo, and his shooting might fit better with the big lineup than Jeremy Lin's drive-and-kick game.
Small ball
All it takes is one substitution -- Casspi for Asik -- to turn Houston from one of the league's worst offensive teams to its very best. When Howard is on the floor and Casspi is in for Asik, the Rockets have scored 119.6 points per 100 possessions, which would be the NBA's best offensive rating by an enormous margin. (They've been good enough offensively with the small lineup that they lead the league overall at 111.1 despite their poor starts.) Casspi, a 46.2 percent 3-point shooter in the early going, gives Houston four outside threats that opponents must respect, forcing them to choose between giving up open 3s or letting Howard play one-on-one in the post.
It also helps that the Howard-Casspi pairing sees most of its action at the end of quarters, when opponents are already in the penalty because Howard and James Harden rack up so many fouls. The Rockets' foul rate, a robust .545 free throw attempts per field goal attempt with the big lineup, surges to 1.125 -- more free throw attempts than shots from the field -- when they go small. (A hidden benefit of starting Asik is keeping the Rockets from having two poor free throw shooters on the court together when the team is in the bonus. Asik is a career 53.1 percent shooter from the line, while Howard is at 57.7 percent.)
The bill for playing small comes due at the other end, where Casspi is occasionally too small to match up with opposing power forwards. Add in the team's perimeter-defense woes, as exposed Monday by the Los Angeles Clippers -- which will be aided, but not solved, by Beverley's return -- and that puts a lot of pressure on Howard to clean up for everyone else. Howard has averaged 4.7 fouls per 36 minutes in small lineups, nearly double his average with Asik (2.4).
With Howard as the lone big, Houston is equivalent to the 20th-best defense in the NBA. So despite the overall success of these lineups, which have outscored opponents by a dominant 16.6 points per 100 possessions, the Rockets must determine whether elite offense and below-average defense is a championship-caliber combination.
The future
If the big lineup continues to get outscored, the Rockets have a few options. One is the trade route, and fans dream of swapping Asik for a quality stretch 4 such as Anderson or Ersan Ilyasova, who could provide the same spacing as Casspi along with more size. In the event that no such deal materializes, Houston's in-house alternatives include second-year forwards Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, who have flashed potential as shooters but have yet to showcase the consistency needed to claim a spot in the rotation.
For now, the starting lineup grades an incomplete. Before Tuesday's game in Portland, McHale said he wanted to see the starters get more playing time together after early foul trouble took Asik or Howard off the court early in previous games. Because Asik is too valuable to strictly play behind Howard, and because of their defensive potential, expect the Rockets to be patient with their big lineup.
NO TERRENCE NOOOOOO!!!
