Hide Ya Wives, Hide Ya Kids: Worldwide Coronavirus Pandemic!

[ballinsam23]

Do you think mask wearing and distancing can effectively limit the spread of influenza, especially if schooling is done remotely? I know practically every illness I get is caught from my kids bringing it home from school and none of us have even caught a sniffle since school closed in March. Silver lining, I hope.

Yea technically there should be much less flu cases this year, especially among children. No day care, school, etc. I think more people will start wearing masks during the colder months too. From both a comfort and cases standpoint.

 

[shibadekobe]

 

[shibadekobe]

 

[mr s j king]

I'm now of the belief that this virus didn't originate in China.
Russia, the US, Brazil, Sweden, the UK, all have higher numbers than China

Trump's a habitual professional liar and he's made it a point to blame the virus on China
Which leads me to believe what the Chinese said months ago that the virus came from European tourist

Coronavirus Started in China, but Europe Became the Hub for Its Global Spread

Travel from Europe accounts for Covid-19 index cases in at least 93 countries, with African nations being the most affected.

theintercept.com

Joe Penney
April 2 2020, 4:00 a.m.

WHEN THE CORONAVIRUS began to spread, Mongolia took sensible precautions. It halted border crossings from China, with which it shares a 2,877-mile border. Mongolia also imposed travel bans on people from South Korea and Japan, the other epicenters of the pandemic at the time. Yet the virus nonetheless found its way to Mongolia, where the first infected person — known as the “index case” — was a Frenchman who had come to the country from France via Moscow.

 

[whywesteppin]

Do you think mask wearing and distancing can effectively limit the spread of influenza, especially if schooling is done remotely? I know practically every illness I get is caught from my kids bringing it home from school and none of us have even caught a sniffle since school closed in March. Silver lining, I hope.

No lol. It usually starts sometime in October. You can get the flu any month but the highest periods of time are Late September or October until around early January. There are years where the peak of the flu season can last later than January but on average, that's how long it lasts.

Yes, you can get your shot as early as July. People tend to wait for everyone else to get sick around them first though during peak season (around October- December) before they get their shot.

A couple things --

Flu peaks in December through February (February is when I've usually gotten it). Past infection confers some immunity and so does the flu shot, but it's unclear how long the protection lasts. There's a lot more nuance to it, where you can have a little or a lot of protection depending on when you were infected previously and what the exact strain is (unlike covid-19, where outside of SARS and MERS, it's an unchanged, single virus, and the exposures are all in the past year). So there's some question if getting a flu shot in July is as good as getting one in November, for example.

Mask wearing and social distancing should reduce the speed of spread of influenza, but I don't know how much it'll reduce the overall prevalence. Typically flu peaks and goes away fairly rapidly (over a few weeks). Is this because of the dynamics of the virus (and weather and other factors), or do we approach herd immunity that quickly, with the majority of cases being mild or asymptomatic due to overlap with prior flu seasons? If it's the latter, then we could just see a prolonged flu season (roughly the same number of total cases but spread out over a much longer period). That's the pessimistic view. More optimistically, we may get R0 under 1 with masks and we won't really have a flu season at all.

 

[Blake P]

I'm now of the belief that this virus didn't originate in China.
Russia, the US, Brazil, Sweden, the UK, all have higher numbers than China

Trump's a habitual professional liar and he's made it a point to blame the virus on China
Which leads me to believe what the Chinese said months ago that the virus came from European tourist

 

[shibadekobe]

 

[Blake P]

96 days to pass 1M cases in the USA
44 days to 2M
27 days to 3M
15 days to 4M
Exponential growth is a MF

 

[whywesteppin]

with the plateau at about 70k cases per day, that means the deaths will stay at this level (or higher) for a month.

once cases start going down, deaths will start going down.... in a month.

 

[3am scholar]

My grandparents still don’t want me to see them. I agree with them, but it’s been since March since I last gave them a hug

 

[pr0phecy718]

 

[Blake P]

My grandparents still don’t want me to see them. I agree with them, but it’s been since March since I last gave them a hug

What about visiting with them outdoors at a distance with masks on. That's what I've done and it's better than nothing.

 

[elpablo21]

Never seen anyone more petty than this clown

 

[Olympus]

Interesting thread to read through.

Question for you guys: what scenario do you think is required to get us back to normal (full crowds at sports games, no masks/social distancing, full capacity everywhere, etc)?

Smallpox is the only virus to have ever been eradicated and even that took a long, long time. COVID-19 is here to stay. It’ll circulate like the flu and the common cold (also a coronavirus). With annual symptomatic flu cases in the US averaging 28 million since 2010 (Per the CDC) it is reasonable that COVID-19 may post similar numbers year to year and is a testament to the fact that this isn’t going away.

A vaccine provides hope, but how much can we expect it to help? Is it going to be similar to a flu vaccine where it just curbs symptoms and averts some cases to reduce the casualties? As COVID-19 spreads and memory T-Cells/antibodies are formed, can this help enough to make COVID-19 another manageable virus like the flu and others?

I guess my overall point here is that COVID-19 is here to stay and it’s clear we cannot live like this forever. A return to normalcy will happen at some point but what do we need to get there?

One last thing for anyone that can provide more clarity. The CDC’s COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios’ best estimate for IFR is .006 which estimates a true total US cases to be at around 25 million. Using the CDC’s average estimate of symptomatic flu cases per year since 2010 alongside the average deaths, the flu’s IFR is .001. Now, per the NYT nursing homes make up 42% of all COVID-19 deaths yet just 8% of all cases. So if we subtract those deaths from the total to see how it affects the general population, we get 73k deaths (currently) and an IFR just under .003. I don’t know how fair that is to do as I don’t know what the flu nursing home numbers are, however, in the gen pop it’s interesting to compare. I guess my question with this is, if these estimations from the CDC are accurate, do they give us some hope for a quicker recovery than the MSM fear mongers let on? How much worse is COVID-19 with that estimated .003-.006 IFR than other illnesses we live with daily?

Sources:

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Nearly One-Third of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes (Published 2021)

The virus has devastated residents and staff members in more than 32,000 long-term care facilities across the country.

www.nytimes.com

 

[IATT]

 

[3am scholar]

What about visiting with them outdoors at a distance with masks on. That's what I've done and it's better than nothing.

Yeah I’ve been begging. They have a balcony too.

 

[casper90403]

Damn, Fauci's first pitch was no good. Ouch

 

[shibadekobe]

 

[ballinsam23]

I honestly cant believe they even attempted Famotidine as a potential treatment. Completely wild.

 

[whywesteppin]

Interesting thread to read through.

Question for you guys: what scenario do you think is required to get us back to normal (full crowds at sports games, no masks/social distancing, full capacity everywhere, etc)?

Smallpox is the only virus to have ever been eradicated and even that took a long, long time. COVID-19 is here to stay. It’ll circulate like the flu and the common cold (also a coronavirus). With annual symptomatic flu cases in the US averaging 28 million since 2010 (Per the CDC) it is reasonable that COVID-19 may post similar numbers year to year and is a testament to the fact that this isn’t going away.

A vaccine provides hope, but how much can we expect it to help? Is it going to be similar to a flu vaccine where it just curbs symptoms and averts some cases to reduce the casualties? As COVID-19 spreads and memory T-Cells/antibodies are formed, can this help enough to make COVID-19 another manageable virus like the flu and others?

I guess my overall point here is that COVID-19 is here to stay and it’s clear we cannot live like this forever. A return to normalcy will happen at some point but what do we need to get there?

One last thing for anyone that can provide more clarity. The CDC’s COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios’ best estimate for IFR is .006 which estimates a true total US cases to be at around 25 million. Using the CDC’s average estimate of symptomatic flu cases per year since 2010 alongside the average deaths, the flu’s IFR is .001. Now, per the NYT nursing homes make up 42% of all COVID-19 deaths yet just 8% of all cases. So if we subtract those deaths from the total to see how it affects the general population, we get 73k deaths (currently) and an IFR just under .003. I don’t know how fair that is to do as I don’t know what the flu nursing home numbers are, however, in the gen pop it’s interesting to compare. I guess my question with this is, if these estimations from the CDC are accurate, do they give us some hope for a quicker recovery than the MSM fear mongers let on? How much worse is COVID-19 with that estimated .003-.006 IFR than other illnesses we live with daily?

Sources:

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

Nearly One-Third of U.S. Coronavirus Deaths Are Linked to Nursing Homes (Published 2021)

The virus has devastated residents and staff members in more than 32,000 long-term care facilities across the country.

www.nytimes.com

we could still suppress the virus. the problem isn't that the measures are morally unacceptable. the problem is that people are unwilling to care enough.

we may already be close to a point though where it's justified to let the virus rip. better therapeutics are being found. also, if we confirm a dose-dependence of disease severity, then it could make sense to allow for crowds as long as everyone is wearing a mask, for example.

we still need a better handle on the numbers though.

 

[ICE CITY CF]

Damn, Fauci's first pitch was no good. Ouch

I know Fauci like 80 but I'll never not get a chuckle out of watching people with no childhood baseball experience attempting to throw a ball, or any other object.

 

[Ube]

For all the people that are back to work, how is your employer handling if an employee is positive for covid ? What about if an employee is sick but unsure of positive for covid? I legit hate how my job has handled the situation. My close group of coworkers are all upset with the way our 2 managers have handled it. They seem to really just not be taking it serious and then some of my other coworkers really don’t seem to grasp how serious it could be for everyone at work.

Edit: Everyone is wearing a mask but I see so many of my coworkers taking it off and leaving it off, halfway on, some take it off for a bit and then throw it back on again. I leave mine on for 8hrs straight and the only time I take it off is once I am in my car. Idk maybe I’m just really paranoid because I’ve got asthma.

 

[Upptempo]

Trump throwing out the first pitch at a game is ridiculous bc dude is gonna spend 3 days practicing his pitching bc he cares more about looking good on ESPN over doing his ****in job

 

[boxer15]

I'm now of the belief that this virus didn't originate in China.
Russia, the US, Brazil, Sweden, the UK, all have higher numbers than China

Trump's a habitual professional liar and he's made it a point to blame the virus on China
Which leads me to believe what the Chinese said months ago that the virus came from European tourist

We got Chinese bots on the board now?

You‘re incredibly naive if you trust the CCP’s numbers at all. It’s guaranteed their numbers dwarf even ours at this point. What you see Trump and some states doing in attempts to suppress numbers is an amateur attempt to do what the CCP does with ease.

 

[sooperhooper]

Hilarious but sad but true