ELECTION DAY 2008:........... Barack Obama, the next President of the United States of America

[sfn 155]

 

[nyk buc]

wat the hell, exit polls were nothing like this. again, exit polls are useless.

if obama loses, this must be the biggest miracle ever.

 

[bmw 7 series]

O-M-G!!!!

 

[birdsiview]

Damn I've been watching CNN all day and switched right when they use holograms

 

[freshsince1982]

Did your boy just say....

"Lets look at what we know now based on our projections"

 

[ultralightbeam]

Would NOT be surprised at all now if McCain pulled off the upset.

 

[yungchamp]

damn im nervous

 

[dmxgod]

I'm gettin nervous about Indiana and Virginia right now..

 

[nyk buc]

obama ahead in florida now; but indy and virigina are both going for mccain

 

[damnitzvin]

can someone explain the senate seats needed for majority? What is this poll concerning to the election?

 

[Chester McFloppy]

Originally Posted by Freshsince1982

Did your boy just say....

"Lets look at what we know now based on our projections"

I caught that too... I was like "wait, what?"

 

[kartoon2005]

Florida is not adding up? WHAT GIVES !!!

Hopefully Florida doesn't mess this up !

 

[i r andre]

I must be the only one watching Fox news for the comedy.

 

[Chester McFloppy]

People... calm down.... it's VERY early....

 

[dmasta718]

I'm closely watching.

 

[kdwallace]

Remember when they declared Bush the winner in 2000 and then rescinded it saying it was too close to call.


That's because Bush stole the election.

wat the hell, exit polls were nothing like this. again, exit polls are useless.


Wrong. Exit polls are an incredibly accurate way of calling the election - they are people who actually voted just a few minutes ago - they're not opinionpolls. The only reason they haven't worked in the last 2 elections is because of all the shenanigans.

 

[jordanhead2]

Originally Posted by BMW 7 series

O-M-G!!!!

 

[illionaire]

So whoever wins Ohio wins the election?

 

[falcon4567]

If MSNBC is reporting from Enterprise then BBC America is reporting from the TARDIS

 

[numbah1grimey]

Lets get it Florida.

 

[sfn 155]

Originally Posted by kdwallace

wat the hell, exit polls were nothing like this. again, exit polls are useless.

Wrong. Exit polls are an incredibly accurate way of calling the election - they are people who actually voted just a few minutes ago - they're not opinion polls. The only reason they haven't worked in the last 2 elections is because of all the shenanigans.

Wrong.

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.

4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample -- essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place -- in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore's share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By "late" voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult.
Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics -- will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? -- the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

 

[heatpinoyboy]

I'll be watching cosely

 

[718stylez]

election night won't be the same without Tim Russert. RIP to you and your white dry erase board.

 

[nyk buc]

if mccain wins, it's not gonna be via electoral and not popular. if this happens again, ima be so

 

[swizzc]

Originally Posted by ILLIONAIRE

So whoever wins Ohio wins the election?

no