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[licensed to ball]

@ the Pacers thinking Raja Bell is the difference between us winning a Championship and not.

The Difference Maker...

You can keep him son.

 

[CHAOSE57]

@ the Pacers thinking Raja Bell is the difference between us winning a Championship and not.

The Difference Maker...

You can keep him son.

Blasphemous

 

[nermindee]

Probably Curry as well..

you could throw in jarret jack

 

[pmatic]

Assessing Lakers' playoff hopes

Here come the Los Angeles Lakers. Despite a schedule loss Monday, when the NBA shipped them to Denver to play a challenging opponent at altitude in the second game of a back-to-back, the Lakers have won 11 of their past 16 games. With wins at home over Minnesota and Atlanta in their next two games, the Lakers can get to .500 for the first time since New Year's Day. Now, Kobe Bryant can talk about a playoff run with his usual confidence.

"It's not a question of if we make the playoffs. We will," Bryant told Sports Illustrated last week. "And when we get there, I have no fear of anyone -- Oklahoma City, San Antonio, Denver ... whoever. I have zero nervousness about that."

Bryant probably should. The Lakers are three games behind the Houston Rockets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference with 24 games to play. The Hollinger Playoff Odds show them making up the difference 33.5 percent of the time. My simulations are slightly more optimistic because they still incorporate preseason lines to improve accuracy. (They now make up 30 percent of the projection for the rest of the season, as derived by Insider's Neil Paine.) In this case, optimistic means the Lakers still reach the playoffs less than half the time -- 44.8 percent of simulations.

What the Lakers have to do
The typical simulation shows the eighth playoff team in the Western Conference finishing with either 43 or 44 wins. Because the Lakers are in the eighth spot some of the time, we can favor the lower number and assume the Lakers have to get to 43-39 to have a 50-50 shot at a playoff berth. In fact, their average projection is 42.3 wins.

Getting to 43 wins means a 15-9 record the remainder of the way. That's doable, given the Lakers' schedule. As balanced as it looks -- precisely half of their remaining games are home and away, and half are against opponents that would make the playoffs if the season ended today -- the combination of those two criteria favors the Lakers. They have only six remaining road games against playoff teams, mostly against lesser lights such as Atlanta and Milwaukee. The hardest remaining games, including an April 7 "road" matchup with the Clippers, will be played at the Staples Center.

Still, we shouldn't understate the difficulty of the Lakers going 15-9 the rest of the way. Despite the recent run, they haven't been able to sustain such success over an extended period at any point this season. There isn't a single 24-game period all year where the Lakers have won more than 13 games. With so little margin for error, they certainly can't afford Dwight Howard missing time or any other serious injury.

What other teams have to do
The Lakers can do their part and still be eliminated because the three teams ahead of them -- the Rockets, the Golden State Warriors and the Utah Jazz -- need only go .500 to get to at least 43 wins. In fact, the simulation shows the Lakers aren't really guaranteed a playoff spot unless they get to 47 wins. So there will be plenty of scoreboard watching for the Lakers, whose playoff hopes might go down after a win if their competitors are also victorious.

Unfortunately for the Lakers, the team they're closest to catching (Houston) also happens to be the best of the three this season. The Rockets have outscored opponents by 2.9 points per game, a differential far better than not only the Lakers (+0.9) but also the Warriors (-0.1) and Jazz (-0.4), both of whom have been outscored despite records solidly better than .500. Houston has been even better of late and has reached fourth in the Hollinger Power Rankings, so the Rockets probably won't be caught by the Lakers.

Of the last three teams in the West playoff spots, the simulation shows Utah as most vulnerable. Most likely, the Jazz will win about half of their remaining 25 games. They go 13-12 or 12-13 in about a third of the simulations. That would put Utah's final record at 43 or 44 wins -- right at the upper threshold of what the Lakers are likely to accomplish. There is, however, the outside chance of a Jazz collapse down the stretch. Utah finishes .500 or worse some 20 percent of the time, which would open the door to a Lakers comeback.

The bad news for the Lakers is that they already have lost the tiebreaker to the Jazz, who won the series 2-1. The Lakers still have games home and away left with Golden State with a chance to sweep the series and finish the regular season against Houston in a game that will decide the tiebreaker between the teams (the Rockets lead the series 2-1). Those head-to-head matchups could loom large.

If the Lakers do make the playoffs
Even if Bryant might not fear the teams the Lakers could face in the opening round -- usually likely top seed San Antonio in the simulation, but occasionally Oklahoma City with a slim chance of an all-Staples matchup with the Clippers -- there's little to suggest those teams should fear the Lakers either. Combined, the West's top three teams are 7-1 against the Lakers, who can point only to their home win over the Thunder on Jan. 27.

Beyond that, as Tom Ziller noted Monday on SBNation.com, the Lakers simply haven't coalesced the way their recent win-loss record would suggest. The surge is more about schedule and the team's poor fortune in close games turning than improved play. So while the Lakers' point differential is better than their record would indicate, it's also nowhere near the West's top teams.

Though the Lakers need to make the playoffs to avoid their season being perceived -- fairly or not -- as one of the most disappointing in NBA history, their stay is unlikely to last long if they do sneak in. Barring a historic upset, we're really talking about whether the Lakers' season ends in mid-April or the end of the month. Sorry, Kobe.

 

[CP1708]

Despite a schedule loss Monday

Oh.

 

[CP1708]

Minn
Atl
At OKC
At NO (back to back)
Tor
Chi
At Orld
At Atl (B2B)
At Indy
Sac
At Pho (B2B)
Wash
At GS
At Minn
At Mil (B2B)
At Sac
Dal
Mem
At LA
NO
At Port (B2B)
GS
San An
Hou

Ok, still 5 back to backs, but only 1 of them is really a murdeous one. (why we always play Portland in a back to back I have no idea - Schedule loss folks)

We have like 8-9 games against teams that barely have 20 wins or less than. THOSE ARE MUSTS. Like free W's basically. Have to have ALL of them since we gave away so many early ones. The game Kyrie came back, the Orlando game, the Houston game, Phoenix, etc. Those 4 games and we'd be in much better position right now.

San An may or may not even play their guys.
There's a small chance that Portland could be shut down by then, talk up here already about it.
Dallas will be tough, I'm hoping the Shaq jersey will help get the crowd and team goin. Maybe Pau is back by then as well, and we can have a center on the floor at all times, a big help.

The Bucks and Hawks on the road, back to back worry me, we need to maybe split those.

OKC, LAC, and Memphis look like tough ones. We need to steal 1 of them at least, give us a W we haven't been getting this year.

The Bulls are tough, but seem to be running out of gas with their injuries, huge minutes on their starters. Need that game as well, it's winnable if we play the way we have been.

Lastly, we HAVE to win both Golden State games just to make sure they come back our direction. Those are 2 huge games, and of course the last Houston game may or may not be. I kinda think Houston will be locked in by then.

 

[pmatic]

HE'S GOING TO RE-SIGN!!!

 

[grandtheftbike]

i wonder when that was shot

 

[essential1]

.

If you had a number what would you put it at. I honestly think 18-6.

 

[essential1]

You may not like his indecisiveness. But dude seems like such a genuinely nice guy.

 

[la kb24]

i wonder when that was shot

that has to be recent cause in the back of his hair cut he has the 2 graphic strip lines and i notice he started having that couple weeks ago...but then again i wasnt looking at the dudes hair cut when the season started so i could be wrong

 

[mjgreatxii]

I think it was beginning of season.
He doesn't put on that laker jersey with pride anymore

 

[CP1708]

.

If you had a number what would you put it at. I honestly think 18-6.

I would think about that too, 18-6, but with our stumbles, 16-8 seems more likely to me. I assume we'll cough up a game or two we shouldn't.

 

[illest35]

You may not like his indecisiveness. But dude seems like such a genuinely nice guy.

Just like all big dudes(specially shaq) he likes attention

Played the video twice cuz i liked the beat(bcuz of the mary j too)

 

[pmatic]

Only David Lee was suspended.

 

[licensed to ball]

Only David Lee was suspended.

Should of been the whole team.

 

[CP1708]

I'm not greedy, I'll take what I can get.

Bottom line, hope and pray the Knicks get this game for us.

We still have 2 coming up against them, get those, and we're right on their tail, young team hangin on, hopefully we can get Pau back at some point, put some pressure on them, see if we can steal a spot.

 

[teamlakers909]

just saw the fight on youtube. Man that was the lamest fight ever.  Curry just went into shoving mode.  NBA fights are so lame.

 

[grandtheftbike]

curry tried to hold hibbert but was thrown to the ground before he got up and shoved back

what he should have done was held lee down instead and things might have been a little different

 

[CHAOSE57]

Only David Lee was suspended.

Should've been 5 games. Curry and Jack 2 games.

just saw the fight on youtube. Man that was the lamest fight ever.  Curry just went into shoving mode.  NBA fights are so lame.

That was a cat fight



One thing came across my mind, If that was MWP shoving Lee, would he get 1 game suspension? I don't think so

 

[moiety]

^ He most definitely wouldn't, and that's on Ron and I'm sure he knows that.

I didn't think anybody deserved to be suspended, if anyone it should have been Steph Curry and Hibbert in my opinion.

 

[teamlakers909]

If you think about it, Kobe Bryant has ruined the NBA.

The black mamba, through ridiculous hard work has made winning multiple championships look easy.  Added to the fact that the media never truly gives him the credit he deserves, other NBA players simply think he won titles because he had other stars around him.  This has led others to think they can do what he did, since "he's not that good but had a good team". Dwade even said it after lebron signed there when he brought up Kobes bad game 7 vs the Celtics and how he had teammates that lifted him.  In reality, Kobe had the ball all game, he was the leader. His teammates looked for him at the end of that game. He was rebounding. Getting to the line and just calming everyone down.

Nowadays, you never hear about a player striving to win that ONE championship he dreamed of. Now its all about forming super teams so that he can win MULTIPLE, BACK TO BACK titles.  I dont think these guys appreciate how difficult it is to win a ring.  Look at Kobes journey through the years, all those series the Lakers almost lost (the Nuggets, vs spurs, vs celtics) - Lakers werent always the clear favorites.  Heck, in elimination games the Lakers had to pull out wins from behind. 

We are in a sad state where if you aren't winning title(S) right NOW players ask for a trade or threaten management to leave for another team to team up with the superstars.  Teams are doing it too...when the Knicks go on a few game losing streak they talk about trading Carmelo.  Back in the day, superstars would stick with one team and keep trying over and over to try to win - eventually even just getting one was appreciated.  Now - its all about winning MANY - but as Lakers fans we can appreciate how difficult it can be to win and how much luck, skill and dedication it takes.  Finally, it really puts into perspective how good Kobe really is - even though he gets proportionally less hype/credit as he deserves from teh media.

 

[teamlakers909]

Should've been 5 games. Curry and Jack 2 games.

That was a cat fight

One thing came across my mind, If that was MWP shoving Lee, would he get 1 game suspension? I don't think so

that fight was embarrasing.

 

[darthdeezy]

Lakers won't make it.
Consider it the offseason now, get healthy and come back stronger next year.

 

[grandtheftbike]

We are in a sad state where if you aren't winning title(S) right NOW players ask for a trade or threaten management to leave for another team to team up with the superstars.  Teams are doing it too...when the Knicks go on a few game losing streak they talk about trading Carmelo.  Back in the day, superstars would stick with one team and keep trying over and over to try to win - eventually even just getting one was appreciated.  Now - its all about winning MANY - but as Lakers fans we can appreciate how difficult it can be to win and how much luck, skill and dedication it takes.  Finally, it really puts into perspective how good Kobe really is - even though he gets proportionally less hype/credit as he deserves from teh media.

kobe was going to go to the clippers/bulls back in 04 and there was an article recently about kobe asking to traded in 07