- Sep 5, 2010
- 92,782
- 129,030
So Bynum would be recorded living life like a blaxploitation film? I am for this.
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Kobe Bryant's amazing conundrum
Should we be surprised by what Kobe Bryant does anymore?
Think about the circumstances. Let's start with the fact that Bryant is 34 years old and has logged more than 50,000 minutes on his basketball odometer. Then throw in the circus that brought a melodramatic, fit-for-Hollywood coaching change and a learning curve that comes with establishing two vastly different offenses.
Then you look at the surrounding personnel. Bryant is playing next to two centers -- a new one with a balky back and an old one mired in a constant state of confusion. Darius Morris, he of a 7.2 career player efficiency rating, is his starting point guard -- his third one of the season. And to make matters worse, Bryant just played through a nasty flu that made him look like this before Wednesday's tipoff against the Pacers.
And yet, through it all, Kobe Bryant is off to the most efficient season of his 16-year career. Really.
The per-game numbers look pretty standard for Bryant. He's averaging a league-leading 27.7 points per game along with 5.3 rebounds, 4.9 assists and 1.5 steals with a 25.7 PER. That's par for the course. But the eye-popping development is that his scoring average is almost identical to last season's 27.9 figure, except that he's doing it while taking about five fewer shots per game.
That's the amazing thing about Bryant's game this season. He's putting up the same scoring totals as usual but without wasting possessions to get there. He's shooting 50.2 percent from the floor, 42.1 percent from downtown and 87.1 percent from the free throw line. He's efficient in virtually every shooting category you can find, and he's sniffing the exclusive 50/40/90 percentage club.
In other words, Bryant has become Steve Nash in Steve Nash's absence.
But a 50.2 field goal percentage actually doesn't do Bryant's shooting display justice. For a wing player who uses a steady diet of 3-pointers, field goal percentage can understate his effectiveness because all shots are counted the same even though they're not worth the same. If we weigh 3-pointers appropriately to reflect their added value, Bryant is effectively shooting 56 percent from the floor, which is by far the highest such rate of his career. Only his 2007-08 campaign of 50.3 effective field goal percentage comes remotely close.
Any way you look at it, what we're seeing is just about the hottest shooting stretch of Bryant's career. It's certainly his best start. He has never topped an effective field goal percentage of 56 percent in the first 15 games of any season. His previous hottest 15-game start in the effective field goal percentage column was 54.2 percent back in 2001-02, and he hasn't posted a rate north of 50 percent in 2007-08 when Vladimir Radmonovich was a full-time starter for the Lakers.
Now here's the real question: What about any 15-game stretch in Bryant's career? Is this just a flash of lightning, a burst of good play that merely conceals reality? Well, chew on this one: Bryant hasn't registered a higher effective field goal percentage during any 15-game stretch since he became a starter back in 1998-99. He shot a scorching 57.3 percent back when he was a rookie coming off the bench, but he barely got up a half-dozen shots per game. What he's doing now is simply on another level.
We can also look at true shooting percentage, a shot efficiency stat including free throws along with 3-point field goals and 2-point field goals. Under the lens of true shooting percentage, we find that Bryant's current stretch is the third-hottest of his career, behind that same rookie season stretch and one in 2007-08 that saw him shoot 87.5 percent from the charity stripe. But shooting from the floor? Bryant has been unconscious.
The story here isn't just that he's making the shots; it's where he's taking the shots from that's equally as important. The early trend to watch is that Bryant has cut out much of his midrange game in exchange for higher-percentage shots near the rim and beyond the arc. According to Hoopdata.com, 50 percent of Bryant's shots last season came from the inefficient mid-range area 10-23 feet away from the rim.
But this season? That portion has plummeted to just 30 percent, an enormous decline and easily his lowest figure since Hoopdata started tracking shot location data back in 2006-07. Meanwhile, Bryant's diet of shots at the rim and 3-pointers has risen from 37 percent of his shots last season to 55 percent this season. It's a much healthier diet for Bryant, especially at this stage in his career; he can't afford to live in the midrange like he used to.
Ultimately, Bryant has buoyed his efficiency this season by pounding the rim, where he's shooting 69.6 percent and improving his 3-point jump shot. But there's an elephant in the room: Can he maintain this blazing start after Nash returns?
Normally, it's a no-brainer: Nash's reputation is that he makes everyone around him better. And the numbers bear out that Nash's teammates tend to shoot much better when he's on the floor dishing the ball out.
But Bryant isn't like most players. Typically, most of Nash's former teammates don't thrive with the ball in their hands quite like Bryant. Nash will orchestrate the offense and naturally push Bryant off the ball, where Bryant will be required to spot-up and shoot more than he has been so far this season. And that's not his strength. According to SynergySports, Bryant ranks 72nd among 104 players on catch-and-shoot efficiency this season, something that he'll have to improve if he wants to maintain his effectiveness alongside Nash.
The Lakers will probably find a winning balance between Nash and Bryant handling the ball; the talent is too good not to. But one way that coach Mike D'Antoni can maximize their talents is to never take both players out of the game at the same time. Rather, he can amplify their skills by staggering the second units so that Bryant can play next to Steve Blake (when healthy) and Nash can spend a few minutes with downtown specialist Jodie Meeks. Best of both worlds.
Right now, it's hard to imagine Bryant shooting even more lights-out, and the numbers say that he's never been hotter. But then again, Nash will probably give Bryant more open looks on the perimeter, so there's a good chance we could see an uptick in efficiency for Bryant. The Lakers may be struggling to get their heads above water, but Nash can cure many of their backcourt issues outside of Bryant and alleviate Bryant of some ball-handling duties so that he'll never hit double-digit turnovers again like he did on Wednesday.
With a smarter shot selection and a basketball wizard's return on the horizon, Bryant has never shot better in his 16 seasons in the NBA, and the hot streak may not end soon. And believe it or not, no guard has ever posted a PER this good at this age (Michael Jordan's 25.2 PER at age 34 is slightly below Bryant's current figure). Bryant is indeed getting wiser -- and better -- with age.
LinkPau Gasol vs. the system
Last Friday in Memphis, two-time NBA champion Pau Gasol found himself banished to the bench for the entire fourth quarter. Gasol was struggling to find good looks at the basket (and wasn't successful at hitting those he found) and at the moment down the stretch when he would've normally trotted over to the scorers table to check in for reserve Antawn Jamison, Lakers coach Mike D'Antoni never called Gasol's number.
After the game, Gasol expressed his frustration, not so much with D'Antoni's decision to stick with Jamison, who was playing well on the offensive end. Gasol was disheartened by the lack of touches he was getting in the post, where he's most comfortable operating:
All my looks are jump shots ... I would like to see something closer to the basket and not just rolling, especially when Dwight is there. But we'll see. We'll figure it out. We're just starting, pretty much.
... I'm not a pure jump-shooter ... I can stretch the defense out and make a couple jumpers. But how I get going is by getting in the paint and creating off the post, things like that. That's historically how I've been really successful and made a really good name for myself and earned my contracts. But hopefully I'll find a way and we'll find a way to get me a few opportunities there and get myself going in that way and be more effective.
Gasol's claim is correct: He is seeing fewer post-up opportunities this season. According to ESPN Stats & Analysis, only 15.3 percent of Gasol's possessions under D'Antoni can be classified as post-ups. During the four seasons of the Phil Jackson era, Gasol was used in the post on 38 percent of his plays.
There are several explanations for this, most prominently the introduction of Dwight Howard to the Lakers' offense. Gasol is also battling tendonitis in his knee, and that makes the physical nature of battling NBA post defenders much hairier.
All that aside, there's a primary factor dictating why Gasol is spending less time on the block, and that's Mike D'Antoni's devotion to a system that doesn't take kindly to traditional post play.
Gasol isn't the first player to find that his perceived strengths don't have a rightful place in D'Antoni's strategy. In "Seven Seconds or Less," Jack McCallum's entertaining and insightful chronicle of the Phoenix Suns 2005-06 campaign, Shawn Marion frequently finds himself grappling with his role in D'Antoni's system:
Marion desperately wants to be known as a “3,” a small forward, generally the most athletic player on a team, rather than a “4,” a power forward, generally a bigger and slower player. What the coaches want to communicate to Marion is that going against bigger players, filling the power forward spot, is precisely what has made him an All-Star. He can use his speed, quickness, and leaping ability to leave other fours in the dust, whereas, against the typical small forward, some of his athleticism would be negated.
Marion's beef and Gasol's are dissimilar on the surface. While Marion had a problem with his position (though positions tend to be somewhat irrelevant in a D'Antoni offense), Gasol is more concerned about where he's being situated on the floor and the kinds of shots that materialize for him within the flow of the offense. But on a macro level, Marion then and Gasol now are lodging the same complaint: They're not being used in ways they're accustomed to, and that's hampering their game.
D'Antoni has conceded that Gasol isn't a natural fit in the system, but he recently told ESPN Radio's Colin Cowherd that much of the onus is on him to solve this riddle:
I just don't see how a player as smart as he is, as talented as he is, as big as he is, doesn't fit into anybody's scheme. Then I've got to re-examine myself and think, 'I can't play with Pau Gasol?' C'mon. He's won two championships. I gotta rethink what I'm doing.
Although D'Antoni might never admit it, running a 3-2 half-court offense, stationing two big men near the basket, then dumping the ball into one of them is heresy. That violates everything D'Antoni's offense is about: finding early shot opportunities, keeping the middle open for drivers and cutters, stretching the defense to the margins of the floor and running to spots before the defense can get set. D'Antoni needs players who abide by this philosophy and trust the spacing, and those who don't are often marginalized.
If Gasol wants more than 18-foot jumpers, he'll need to be the first guy to run out on defensive stops, just as Amar'e Stoudemire and Boris Diaw(!) did in Phoenix. That's how you create a mismatch against a guard who is back to stop the ball. Gasol will have to set early drag screens, then dive like hell to the rim. D'Antoni will also need to find ways to compromise that don't violate the integrity of his system. That means employing more misdirection by using Howard or Bryant to sneak Gasol inside, and designing a couple of sets that allow Gasol to cut, post and go in the first 10 seconds of the possession before the offense stagnates in the half court
It's not going to be easy, either for D'Antoni or for Gasol. D'Antoni is more of an abstract artist than an architect. The latter can make adjustments to the blueprint with a pink eraser, but an artist working off feel doesn't always have easy solutions within his reach. "Rethinking," a process D'Antoni has pledged to undertake, is tough when you've built success on orthodoxy.
I'm not a pure jump-shooter ... I can stretch the defense out and make a couple jumpers. But how I get going is by getting in the paint and creating off the post, things like that. That's historically how I've been really successful and made a really good name for myself and earned my contracts. But hopefully I'll find a way and we'll find a way to get me a few opportunities there and get myself going in that way and be more effective.
With a smarter shot selection and a basketball wizard's return on the horizon, Bryant has never shot better in his 16 seasons in the NBA, and the hot streak may not end soon. And believe it or not, no guard has ever posted a PER this good at this age (Michael Jordan's 25.2 PER at age 34 is slightly below Bryant's current figure). Bryant is indeed getting wiser -- and better -- with age.
Dude is going to pass Wilt this season barring injury.
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
2 Karl Malone 36,928
3 Michael Jordan 32,292
4 Wilt Chamberlain 31,419
5 KOBE BRYANT 29,900
Im just hoping when Nash comes back it will make things easier for Pau to get some open looks. Dudes hasn't been the same since 2010. My expectations for him are not even the same. I wouldn't be surprised if some of these trade rumors are true.
Dude is going to pass Wilt this season barring injury.
1 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 38,387
2 Karl Malone 36,928
3 Michael Jordan 32,292
4 Wilt Chamberlain 31,419
5 KOBE BRYANT 29,900
That's some great company right there.
there goes the chance of pietrus. he signed with the raptors for the minimum
Overrated.
No doubt Kobe will easily Pass Jordan mid way through the 2013-2014 season.If he plays 2 or more seasons after he has a legit chance of passing Kareem.
The last thing the team needs is another over the hill vet living off a rep made years ago.
About tonight's game, I think Pau and/or Dwight will need to have a big game tonight. Kobe will be dealing with Iguodala and Brewer hounding him all night, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a bad shooting night from him.
No doubt Kobe will easily Pass Jordan mid way through the 2013-2014 season.If he plays 2 or more seasons after he has a legit chance of passing Kareem.
Why you no like me Pietrus? :\
There's a quote from Phil a couple years back that he feels Kobe will retire when he passes up Mike in the all-time scoring list.