Great analysis
A few sticking points for me.
1. The fact that it will be a mess does not mean a salary floor and cap isn't needed, enforcement is a separate issue than the need for a policy.
2. I fail to see how a cap harms players as a whole, sure the Ohtanis of the world may take a hit, but I feel it hurts the lower end players and certain seasons where teams just opt out entirely of a position because they don't need to spend
3. I agree the floor should be higher, as should the distance between floor and cap. As a twins fan I am sick of owners cutting payroll because of "business reasons" If a floor is raised, even at it's proposed level that is almost 300M more dollars in the players hands.
4. NBA has smartly decided parity over dynasties (second apron) in an effort to be more like the NFL, the MLB has made great strides to improve the game and they would be wise to carry that momentum into lifting up markets that either have owners that don't want to compete, or would need to sell because they can't.
A hard floor and cap is difficult to enforce without making exceptions. That is where it becomes complicated. Also how do they enforce this. What are teams that are over supposed to do? Cut payroll? What if teams don't want their guys half the teams will be out because they won't be able to absorb a contract?
The other part is if you create a cap, you then create ceilings for pay. The big names get capped as to not take up too much space. And then all the guys who benefit from having 5-10 teams interested and get the $20-25mil, will get $15mil because you don't want guys to take up too much room that are secondary guys. Then your mediocre players who are helpful in glue guy and tertiary roles go from $10-15mil to $5-10mil. Because imagine having 10% of your cap as a small market team on Ryan McMahon. The people it benefits would be your $900-$3mil guys. Becuase they'll get more consideration as teams try to fill in rosters or hit floors. But those guys are not exploited by unfettered spending, they're hurt by the ridiculous length of team control.
The bottom feeders will not get consideration on stars. Location will become most important in FA, and not dollar amounts. Or you end up with guys being yearly mercenaries going from team to team.
And teams will be bloody with arbitrations, and you'll see a lot of service time manipulation to buy an extra year.
If you want floors and caps, they have to be soft targets. But with really harsh penalties the further you are from the floor or cap. That doesn't surpress incomes and allows flexibility. If you're not punishing cheapness as much as a expense, you have moral footing.
The owners agreeing to raise some teams caps by $60-70-80mil through teams forfiting their exclusive media rights, is essentially subsidizing teams salaries, and also will lead to more national streaming.
The best argument you can make against floors and caps needing to be implemented is that the Pirates pay Paul Skenes $1mil. At worst the second best pitcher in baseball. A generational talent. And those idiots did not go all in over the last two years shows that regardless of floor or cap, some owners truly won't change their tune.
The thing about the NBA is stars still force themselves to big markets, and dynasties were huge for the growth of the NBA. NFL is its own beast because owners can force guys out of contracts they offered to a guy anytime they want essentially.
There's so many holes in the MLB offer because it ignores incentive to spend. It ignores dynamics as to why a team is good. It ignores that the big market teams will concentrate the best starting pitching. 3 of the best bats they can afford, and then piece together their secondary, tertiary and minimum guys. With small market teams Paul Skenes as a FA will try to land on the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, Rangers, Cubs, Phillies, Giants. An almost certainty that floor or cap, he's gone as a FA to a larger market. And let's say it was the Yankees for argument sake, and they had Skenes, Fried and Schlittler.... That alone will eliminate 20 teams from genuinely competing come October,
If they want to fix it. The cheapskate teams have to be at big money, and be going for it every year. It's not the NBA, draft order doesn't matter, nobody will be in the bigs year 1.
