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Why UCLA tops USC right now
Metrics show that Bruins are a better team than the Trojans at the moment
Originally Published: November 12, 2012
By KC Joyner | ESPN Insider
It's been said that a rivalry isn't a rivalry unless both teams are winning some of the contests between the clubs.
If that is the case, no matter how heated the Battle of Los Angeles can be at times, it really can't qualify as a rivalry since the USC Trojans have beaten the UCLA Bruins 12 of the past 13 times these teams have squared off and posted a 50-0 victory last season that qualified as their largest margin of victory in this series in more than 80 years.
When that type of winning streak is combined with the volume of top-flight talent on the Trojans' roster (including four players ranked in the Scouts Inc. top 100 prospects in the 2013 NFL draft), it would seem that USC is very likely to make it 13 wins in 14 years.
However, when one takes a closer look at this matchup, it becomes clear that the Bruins are the best team in Los Angeles right now.
This statement isn't made under the same auspices of the rankings that have UCLA rated ahead of USC mostly by virtue of the Bruins having only two losses versus the Trojans' three, but rather because UCLA has equal or better talent across the board.
It starts at quarterback. This position would seem to be an easy win for USC since its passer, senior Matt Barkley, ranks as one of the highest rated quarterbacks in the upcoming NFL draft and Brett Hundley, UCLA's field general, is a redshirt freshman with only 10 starts under his belt.
Before giving Barkley that victory, however, let's look at how his basic numbers compare with Hundley's this year.
Comparing Matt Barkley and Brett Hundley's 2012 seasons
Quarterback Comp Att Comp % Yards YPA TD Int Rating
Barkley 349 226 64.8% 2,972 8.5 33 13 160.0
Hundley 329 227 69.0% 2,739 8.3 24 9 157.5
Those statistics are nearly even, so let's dive in a bit deeper.
According to cfbstats.com, when the numbers are culled out to include only those games versus foes from BCS-caliber conferences, Hundley takes the lead in YPA (8.6 to 8.4) and passer rating (161.9 to 157.9).
That Hundley's numbers are that close to Barkley's is impressive on its face, and yet it doesn't even take into account the supposed lead USC has in the area of pass-receiving talent.
The Trojans definitely have the top wideout between the two teams in Marqise Lee. Lee leads the nation in receptions (9and receiving yards (1,447) and by virtue of those numbers is probably the leading contender for the Biletnikoff Award that honors the best wide receiver in college football.
Lee also has an impressive 10.4 yards per attempt (YPA) mark against BCS-caliber competition that compares quite favorably with the YPA marks posted by the top wide receiver prospects in last year's NFL draft.
The problem Lee presents for Barkley's case is that if his numbers are taken out of the equation, Barkley's YPA drops to a mediocre 7.1 mark.
Now let's do the same thing for Hundley and his No. 1 wide receiver, Shaquelle Evans. It might come as a surprise to find that Evans has a slightly higher YPA than Lee (10.6), but his total is based on only 48 targets, so Hundley's YPA is reduced to 8.1, or a full yard higher than Barkley.
That number shows two things. First, even though the UCLA offense doesn't have a singular talent of Lee's caliber, it has done a better job this season of developing quality receiving targets across the board.
Second, it also illustrates just how bad of a campaign Robert Woods is having. Woods was named to the first-team All-Pac 12 team last year in large part due to his voluminous numbers (111 receptions, 1,292 receiving yards), yet his follow-up performance this season has fallen well short of reaching last season's bar both on a volume basis (61 receptions, 653 yards) and a YPA basis (8.0 in 2011, 6.9 in 2012).
The USC offense also came into this year with the makings of a powerful rushing attack, as the combination of four returning starters on the offensive line and the explosive skills of running back Curtis McNeal were reason enough to give this squad the top spot in my offseason preview of the nation's best rushing attacks -- and that was before the addition of former All-Big Ten running back Silas Redd.
So what kind of statistical edge has this superior collection of talent given the Trojans? None to speak of, as UCLA is gaining nearly as many yards on a per-carry basis (5.5 versus 5.6) and is posting significantly more rush yards per game (228.7 to 168.4) if sacks are removed from the rushing yards total.
Or, to put it another way, look at how UCLA running back Johnathan Franklin's numbers compare to Redd and McNeal's combined numbers:
Comparing Johnathan Franklin and USC RBs' 2012 seasons
Running back Attempts Yards YPC TD
Franklin 199 1270 6.4 8
Redd/McNeal 218 1229 5.6 11
Franklin has equaled that duo's performance all by himself.
Comparing UCLA and USC defenses
Category UCLA USC
Points allowed per game 24.7 23.5
Total yards allowed per game 411.0 390.8
Passing YPA allowed 7.0 6.6
Rushing YPC allowed 3.9 3.9
Total yards per play allowed 5.5 5.3
Sacks 38 37
Turnovers 25 28
Tackles for loss 79 79
Plays of 10+ yards allowed 130 149
It's not as if USC has an edge on defense, either. For proof, see how these programs compare in a variety of important defensive categories (table on the right).
Those numbers are nearly mirror images of each other and indicate just how even these units are.
Beyond the statistics, there is also the alarming tendency that USC has had this year in trying to coast by on talent most of a game and then needing to hit the urgency button when it starts to get late and the opposing team is still close on the scoreboard.
This has happened numerous times this season (Syracuse, Cal, Utah) and the bad habit showed up again in USC's clash against the Arizona Wildcats when the Trojans turned around a 10-0 first-quarter deficit to lead 28-13 in the third quarter, but started coasting again and let the Wildcats run off 26 unanswered points on the way to a 39-36 upset.
Now it is certainly possible that Lane Kiffin's squad will break this habit by taking UCLA seriously from the opening kickoff to the final gun, but when a team has displayed this type of on-and-off effort level for basically an entire season, it is not something that normally corrects itself.
When that weakness is combined with the fact the Bruins are playing every bit as well, and in some ways even better than the Trojans, it means Jim Mora's troops are the ones who are most likely to come away as the winners of The Victory Bell in this year's Battle of Los Angeles.
#1 in all human polls but #2 in BCS...sigh. bring on Stanford. College Game Day will be there as well.
for Oregon to look better. I just want these conference obsessions to go away and just talk about individual teams.
. His argument was that we don't have Oregon State on the schedule and it benefits us more if UCLA is ranked and "undefeated"... due to SOS.
