- Jun 1, 2011
- 107,061
- 79,467
Kevin Love, Steve Nash, and Kobe. Yep, can't wait for Love to build a time machine and prove everyone wrong.
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2013-2014 NBA Thread - IND @ WAS and OKC @ LAC on ESPN
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by big j 33,
- Start date
- Status
Speaking of Davis.
Since before Andrew Wiggins & Co. even played a college game, the hype around this year's crop of NCAA freshmen has been unprecedented because of what they might someday become in the NBA. But what if the next great player is already in the league? The numbers say he is.
Watch NBA doubleheader on ESPN
Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans take on Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks while James Harden and the Houston Rockets take on Chris Paul and the Clippers on ESPN tonight. WatchESPN: 8:00, 10:30 p.m. ET
Anthony Davis' NBA career hasn't exactly taken place in obscurity. He was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft and was one of two second-year players chosen for the All-Star Game earlier this month. While the New Orleans Pelicans' national TV appearances tonight and Friday are just their second and third of the season, Davis has made the Pelicans favorites on NBA League Pass.
Still, the enormity of Davis' ability hasn't necessarily sunk in. He has demonstrated the potential to be not just one of the best players in the league, but the very best -- and one of the best players ever.
Precocious success
Davis won't be able to celebrate Mardi Gras in a bar, since he doesn't turn 21 until March 11. He's still more than two years younger than Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers, the other sophomore All-Star, and more than a year younger than Creighton forward Doug McDermott, this season's likely NCAA Player of the Year.
At every point since he enrolled at Kentucky, Davis has been ahead of his peers at the same age. Remember, Davis and Kevin Durant are the lone two freshmen ever to win the Naismith and Wooden awards, a feat that appears unlikely to be repeated this season. Davis capped his season by leading the Wildcats to the title and joining Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison as the three freshmen to win Most Outstanding Player in the last 70 years.
Though Davis' rookie season was hampered by a series of injures, he still managed to post the best PER ever by a player in his age-19 season (as determined by age on Feb. 1), per Basketball-Reference.com. Davis is repeating the feat this year among 20-year-olds. Even more impressive is the list if we open it up to players 21 and younger, allowing the inclusion of players who spent more than two seasons in college.
The young and successful
Players with best PER age 21 or younger.
Player Year Exp Age PER
Shaquille O'Neal 1993 1 21.1 28.5
LeBron James 2006 3 21.3 28.1
Anthony Davis 2014 2 21.1 26.4
Kevin Durant 2010 3 21.6 26.2
Michael Jordan 1985 1 22.2 25.8
LeBron James 2005 2 20.3 25.7
Magic Johnson 1981 2 21.7 25.7
John Drew 1976 2 21.6 25.3
Davis already ranks third, trailing Shaquille O'Neal's second season and LeBron James' third, and is ahead of some of the NBA's brightest stars, including any of Durant's first three years, Magic Johnson's first two or Michael Jordan's rookie campaign. Of the seven previous players to surpass a 25 PER by their age-21 season, all of them won MVPs except Durant (who might this season) and John Drew (whose career was limited and eventually ended by cocaine addiction). That's the kind of elite company in which Davis should be considered.
The one caveat
So far, Davis' team impact doesn't seem to be as large as his individual statistics would suggest. Different versions of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), which adjust New Orleans' performance with and without Davis for his teammates and opponents, shows him as an average contributor (via the Talking Practice blog) or worse (via from NBA consultant Jeremias Engelmann).
Both versions agree that, despite his blocks, Davis remains a below-average defender. That makes sense in the context of the Pelicans' leaky defense, which ranks just outside the league's bottom five in points allowed per possession. Davis has been unable to overcome the New Orleans' defensive scheme.
Poor plus-minus is hardly surprising for a young player, let alone alarming. The most similar example is Durant, who rated 1.5 points worse than average per 100 possessions in his second season, per Engelmann. That famously prompted former NBA consultant Wayne Winston to say on TrueHoop he wouldn't want Durant on his team. By his third season, Durant looked like a superstar in both box score and plus-minus measures. If Davis continues to lag next season, there will be cause for concern. For now, it's part of the development process.
Projecting forward
Davis is four and a half years younger than Durant, a slightly larger gap than the one between Durant and James. As Durant has played his way into the question of the league's best player this season, Davis could do the same sometime late this decade. Consider the graphic below on how his rapid development tracks with James and Durant early in their careers.
View media item 827434
The most surprising aspect of the long-term outlook for Davis from my SCHOENE projection system is that he could eventually flirt with 30 points per game. That prospect makes a bit more sense in the context of how other big men have developed late as scorers.
Davis is most frequently compared to Kevin Garnett, another lanky, athletic post player. At the same age, however, Davis is far ahead of Garnett (who topped out at 24.2 points per game) as a scorer. He's averaging 20.6 points per 36 minutes this season, a leap of 3.7 from his rookie campaign. During his second year, Garnett's per-36 average was just 16.0 points, and he didn't surpass 20 until his fifth campaign and age 23.
It's not just Garnett. Kevin Love, the league's highest-scoring big man at 26.5 PPG, averaged 17.7 points per 36 minutes in his second season. The only post player to outscore Davis at the same age in the past three decades was O'Neal, who averaged 22.2 points per 36 minutes as a rookie.
Imagine that Davis develops into a top-5 scorer, a game-changing defender and a dominant rebounder. The flashes of brilliance he demonstrates on a nightly basis make that easy, if you try. That's Davis' MVP-caliber upside, one he's right on track to reaching.
Watch NBA doubleheader on ESPN
Anthony Davis and the New Orleans Pelicans take on Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks while James Harden and the Houston Rockets take on Chris Paul and the Clippers on ESPN tonight. WatchESPN: 8:00, 10:30 p.m. ET
Anthony Davis' NBA career hasn't exactly taken place in obscurity. He was the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft and was one of two second-year players chosen for the All-Star Game earlier this month. While the New Orleans Pelicans' national TV appearances tonight and Friday are just their second and third of the season, Davis has made the Pelicans favorites on NBA League Pass.
Still, the enormity of Davis' ability hasn't necessarily sunk in. He has demonstrated the potential to be not just one of the best players in the league, but the very best -- and one of the best players ever.
Precocious success
Davis won't be able to celebrate Mardi Gras in a bar, since he doesn't turn 21 until March 11. He's still more than two years younger than Damian Lillard of the Portland Trail Blazers, the other sophomore All-Star, and more than a year younger than Creighton forward Doug McDermott, this season's likely NCAA Player of the Year.
At every point since he enrolled at Kentucky, Davis has been ahead of his peers at the same age. Remember, Davis and Kevin Durant are the lone two freshmen ever to win the Naismith and Wooden awards, a feat that appears unlikely to be repeated this season. Davis capped his season by leading the Wildcats to the title and joining Carmelo Anthony and Pervis Ellison as the three freshmen to win Most Outstanding Player in the last 70 years.
Though Davis' rookie season was hampered by a series of injures, he still managed to post the best PER ever by a player in his age-19 season (as determined by age on Feb. 1), per Basketball-Reference.com. Davis is repeating the feat this year among 20-year-olds. Even more impressive is the list if we open it up to players 21 and younger, allowing the inclusion of players who spent more than two seasons in college.
The young and successful
Players with best PER age 21 or younger.
Player Year Exp Age PER
Shaquille O'Neal 1993 1 21.1 28.5
LeBron James 2006 3 21.3 28.1
Anthony Davis 2014 2 21.1 26.4
Kevin Durant 2010 3 21.6 26.2
Michael Jordan 1985 1 22.2 25.8
LeBron James 2005 2 20.3 25.7
Magic Johnson 1981 2 21.7 25.7
John Drew 1976 2 21.6 25.3
Davis already ranks third, trailing Shaquille O'Neal's second season and LeBron James' third, and is ahead of some of the NBA's brightest stars, including any of Durant's first three years, Magic Johnson's first two or Michael Jordan's rookie campaign. Of the seven previous players to surpass a 25 PER by their age-21 season, all of them won MVPs except Durant (who might this season) and John Drew (whose career was limited and eventually ended by cocaine addiction). That's the kind of elite company in which Davis should be considered.
The one caveat
So far, Davis' team impact doesn't seem to be as large as his individual statistics would suggest. Different versions of regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM), which adjust New Orleans' performance with and without Davis for his teammates and opponents, shows him as an average contributor (via the Talking Practice blog) or worse (via from NBA consultant Jeremias Engelmann).
Both versions agree that, despite his blocks, Davis remains a below-average defender. That makes sense in the context of the Pelicans' leaky defense, which ranks just outside the league's bottom five in points allowed per possession. Davis has been unable to overcome the New Orleans' defensive scheme.
Poor plus-minus is hardly surprising for a young player, let alone alarming. The most similar example is Durant, who rated 1.5 points worse than average per 100 possessions in his second season, per Engelmann. That famously prompted former NBA consultant Wayne Winston to say on TrueHoop he wouldn't want Durant on his team. By his third season, Durant looked like a superstar in both box score and plus-minus measures. If Davis continues to lag next season, there will be cause for concern. For now, it's part of the development process.
Projecting forward
Davis is four and a half years younger than Durant, a slightly larger gap than the one between Durant and James. As Durant has played his way into the question of the league's best player this season, Davis could do the same sometime late this decade. Consider the graphic below on how his rapid development tracks with James and Durant early in their careers.
View media item 827434
The most surprising aspect of the long-term outlook for Davis from my SCHOENE projection system is that he could eventually flirt with 30 points per game. That prospect makes a bit more sense in the context of how other big men have developed late as scorers.
Davis is most frequently compared to Kevin Garnett, another lanky, athletic post player. At the same age, however, Davis is far ahead of Garnett (who topped out at 24.2 points per game) as a scorer. He's averaging 20.6 points per 36 minutes this season, a leap of 3.7 from his rookie campaign. During his second year, Garnett's per-36 average was just 16.0 points, and he didn't surpass 20 until his fifth campaign and age 23.
It's not just Garnett. Kevin Love, the league's highest-scoring big man at 26.5 PPG, averaged 17.7 points per 36 minutes in his second season. The only post player to outscore Davis at the same age in the past three decades was O'Neal, who averaged 22.2 points per 36 minutes as a rookie.
Imagine that Davis develops into a top-5 scorer, a game-changing defender and a dominant rebounder. The flashes of brilliance he demonstrates on a nightly basis make that easy, if you try. That's Davis' MVP-caliber upside, one he's right on track to reaching.
- Nov 11, 2007
- 17,685
- 24,125
The Wolves' offensive rating is 113.8 (would be #1 in the league) with Love on the court and 99.5 (would be #29 in the league) when he sits.
Also, LOL at bringing up Chase Budinger, a guy who's played 46 games in the past 2 seasons and has a 7.5 PER.
Also, LOL at bringing up Chase Budinger, a guy who's played 46 games in the past 2 seasons and has a 7.5 PER.
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- Oct 1, 2013
- 30,670
- 7,908
I will not stand for Budinger slander
- Mar 30, 2010
- 8,485
- 1,318
Pekovic and Kevin Martin aren't playing bruh, they've missed a ton of games. Budinger missed damn near the entire seasonThose teams are all high seeds and contenders, the Timberwolves can't even stay at .500.According to NT, Kevin Garnett isn't a winner either? Because he played for that same Minnesota franchise and missed the playoffs three years in a row, IN HIS PRIME. And I don't mean barely missed the playoffs, those were like 30-win teams. Yet once he got a team around him, he started experiencing some success and the narrative changed..
Don't understand this 'winner' stuff, at least not when it comes to someone like Kevin Love. The dude is obviously an amazing player, he can rebound like no other and score from anywhere. If you put the right team around a player like that you can go far.
I mean let's look at the facts.. Blake Griffin is playing with a HOFer, LMA is playing with an All-Star PG, Bosh is playing with two HOFers, Love is playing with... *crickets*
Where are his All-Stars at???
That's why I hope he goes to the Lakers, do what you need to do Kevin. And people forget he's only 25, his career is just beginning. When he's 35 with some rings under his belt, all these same people are gonna be saying "Kevin Love
I'm not saying that Minnesota should be contending with Love, just that they should be contending for a playoff spot.
Pekovic, Rubio, Kevin Martin, Budinger, Barea... these are not bad players. They aren't stars, but they're starters on many teams in the league (okay maybe not Barea).
Rubio is arguably in the bottom half of starting PGs. Barea is awful, he is shooting 40% from the field. Their bench a bunch of useless scrubs. How can anyone possibly try to pass this off as a good team
Love has a massive +/- differential, ie his team completely falls apart when he's not on the floor. That isn't a good team at all.
And they would be competing for a playoff spot, if they were in the East. What team in the Western conference should the Wolves be ahead of? All the teams ahead of them either have multiple All-Star caliber players, have much more depth, or have been significantly more healthy than Minnesota.
In all honesty I wasn't a huge Love fan prior to this season, but come on dude is out there putting up triple doubles with scrubs.
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- Dec 1, 2012
- 23,318
- 11,740
I'm not going to become captain of the anti-Love team, he's obviously a very good player. I honestly forgot Pekovic was still injured.Pekovic and Kevin Martin aren't playing bruh, they've missed a ton of games. Budinger missed damn near the entire season
Rubio is arguably in the bottom half of starting PGs. Barea is awful, he is shooting 40% from the field. Their bench a bunch of useless scrubs. How can anyone possibly try to pass this off as a good team
Love has a massive +/- differential, ie his team completely falls apart when he's not on the floor. That isn't a good team at all.
And they would be competing for a playoff spot, if they were in the East. What team in the Western conference should the Wolves be ahead of? All the teams ahead of them either have multiple All-Star caliber players, have much more depth, or have been significantly more healthy than Minnesota.
But when you say this is "not a good team", we have to acknowledge the presence of Love on the team—that alone makes this far from a bad roster. If the guy is THE BEST pf in the game and a top-5 player, then I just want to see his team compete for one single season before I anoint him. If he's been unable to do that on Minnesota because of the injuries, that's fine. He'll just have to wait to prove it next year.
- Mar 30, 2007
- 151,175
- 202,611
- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,107
- 9,249
You may not be the captain, but you are definitely a starter on the anti-Love team. The way you try to pass of the trash that he has on his team as serviceable is ridiculous. Even if they weren't injured. You have a far below average starting point guard, you have a pretty good scoring shooting guard, you have a far below average small forward, a decent center and a bench full of D-League talent.I'm not going to become captain of the anti-Love team, he's obviously a very good player. I honestly forgot Pekovic was still injured.Pekovic and Kevin Martin aren't playing bruh, they've missed a ton of games. Budinger missed damn near the entire season
Rubio is arguably in the bottom half of starting PGs. Barea is awful, he is shooting 40% from the field. Their bench a bunch of useless scrubs. How can anyone possibly try to pass this off as a good team
Love has a massive +/- differential, ie his team completely falls apart when he's not on the floor. That isn't a good team at all.
And they would be competing for a playoff spot, if they were in the East. What team in the Western conference should the Wolves be ahead of? All the teams ahead of them either have multiple All-Star caliber players, have much more depth, or have been significantly more healthy than Minnesota.
But when you say this is "not a good team", we have to acknowledge the presence of Love on the team—that alone makes this far from a bad roster. If the guy is THE BEST pf in the game and a top-5 player, then I just want to see his team compete for one single season before I anoint him. If he's been unable to do that on Minnesota because of the injuries, that's fine. He'll just have to wait to prove it next year.
There is no way that this team should be contending for a playoff spot, even if healthy. Kevin Love being the best PF in the league does NOT make up for the fact that the rest of this team is horrible.
And I couldnt disagree more with the bolded. One player does not make a team full of scrubs "far from a bad roster."
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- Mar 3, 2006
- 24,717
- 436
Rck, I really hope my dude Orlando Johnson gets a shot with y'all.
He's a good player, and I just hope he doesn't get lost in the NBA depth charts.
Dude is from my hometown, has a tragic background, and really want to see him excel.
He's a good player, and I just hope he doesn't get lost in the NBA depth charts.
Dude is from my hometown, has a tragic background, and really want to see him excel.
- Dec 1, 2012
- 23,318
- 11,740
I don't have even the slightest problem with Love, I just want to see him play one meaningful game by Spring before I call him The Best.
Mostly that's not his fault. But I'm not in a rush to anoint him. If he continues like this he'll get there eventually anyway .
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- Oct 1, 2013
- 30,670
- 7,908
Ya man I remember you telling me about him awhile back.
I would be shocked if he doesn't get a real shot to play the rest of the season, hopefully he shows out
After getting rid of Thornton and Jimmer, we have 3 guards on roster now in Thomas, Mclemore, and McCallum
My buddies who went to UCSB, always hyped him up to me
- Jul 29, 2001
- 20,671
- 10,732
Worth mentioning, after the debate on here over Durant's demeanor in his latest BS Report:
SG: I’m gonna defend KD on this one — we caught him at 9:30 a.m., right after he had played a late-night game against the Lakers (and dropped 43 points), then flew a red-eye and slept for less than two hours. He was just grumpy. It happens. Normally he’s a fun interview.
- Oct 1, 2013
- 30,670
- 7,908
Oh Lance, dude is so blessed that he was drafted by the Pacers and not any other franchise
lawdog1
Supporter
- Sep 14, 2000
- 60,147
- 72,626
shoeking2101
Banned
- Sep 1, 2007
- 19,728
- 2,456
Ya man I remember you telling me about him awhile back.
I would be shocked if he doesn't get a real shot to play the rest of the season, hopefully he shows out
After getting rid of Thornton and Jimmer, we have 3 guards on roster now in Thomas, Mclemore, and McCallum
My buddies who went to UCSB, always hyped him up to me
My Brother OJ is in sactown now
he's responsible for my first college drinking experience ever good people hope he does well. One of my bestfriends Prince was his roommate during our freshman year of college.
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- Dec 17, 2005
- 23,933
- 5,933
Yo wait up.
Law you're a Ucsb alumn too?
Go gauchos indeed
I know this sounds like duck tales but my Ex's roommate was talking to Orlando during the year he was red shirted at Ucsb. I saw him a few times faded as he'll with James Nunally at my Ex's crib.
At the time he wasn't even playing, so I didn't think he'd ever make it to the league or else I woulda taken pics Dude went on a tear the year after then was no where to be found around isla vista. Turning into a big shot changes where you chill at
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- Oct 8, 2005
- 13,424
- 4,833
class of 1932Law you're a Ucsb alumn too?
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- Jul 19, 2012
- 2,967
- 471
Not to put a damper on you guys or your school but did you hear about the gang-rape of a UCSB student somewhere by your alma mater?
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- Dec 17, 2005
- 23,933
- 5,933
Yeah man.
I actually live just a few minutes away from Isla Vista still, so the story is getting all kinds of attention around here.
Real unfortunate.
The truth is girls gotta be safe in IV, especially at dark. A lot of horrible creepy people are hanging out in IV at night
The truth is it's a perfect location for old perverted men to hang out.
When things go this far it's Just a very sad.
Gotta be careful.
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shoeking2101
Banned
- Sep 1, 2007
- 19,728
- 2,456
Yeah definitely did
that sucks so bad but honestly, that goes down all of the time up there. The thing is, a lot of times chicks at SB consent to being gangbanged and all that. Got first hand accounts on that from OJ himself But still, that's horrible that that happened. No excuse for that. I hate rapist with a passion
Deltopia is coming up though
- Oct 1, 2013
- 30,670
- 7,908
This made me laugh
- Dec 17, 2005
- 23,933
- 5,933
Shoeking an alumn too? Nice
I'm going to be driving far away during deltopia weekend. ***** gonna be mad crazy around here
I'm going to be driving far away during deltopia weekend. ***** gonna be mad crazy around here
- Oct 1, 2013
- 30,670
- 7,908
be part of the madness LTB
- Oct 8, 2005
- 13,424
- 4,833
UCD checking in 
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lawdog1
Supporter
- Sep 14, 2000
- 60,147
- 72,626
Exactly.
- Status
