Random thoughts:
-Have Heat in 6. It's either that or Spurs in 7 to me. Thing I disagree with most this series is any prediction of Spurs in 6 - I can not see Miami losing a G6 on their home floor. Yes, I know last year - but last year also showed a desperate team in G6 that took control of that game and it never felt they were going to let go from about the 6min mark down to 90 seconds left - when Parker went on a personal 5-0 run and LeBron did god knows what. There also was still an OT to be played but that's forgotten, too.
-I think Bosh expanding his range is overlooked. He took 6 threes in 7 games last year, if this goes 7 - I'd expect that number to be 20 and maybe more. Stretches out the Spurs and I would be shocked if Haslem really ever sees the floor or if 2 bigs are ever paired together. I don't know if the Spurs can pack the paint quite as well if Bosh is hitting from 3 (or just simply the threat that he can consistently this time). Lewis also comes into play here, he's not Mike Miller..but if he can hit a few shots is a huge boost as he can actually put a body on Spllitter/Diaw on the other end.
-On that, I'd be surprised if LeBron (mostly) and Wade were spooked by the sagging defense again. For a team that always hunts for the best shot - it definitely threw them off and in no way is LeBron comfortable in half court taking 2 dribbles and going into a jumper with no ball movement. I also don't expect the Spurs to exaggerate their defense to that level again because of it. It just feels to me that the element of surprise from last year is gone and believe you see less thinking from LeBron on how/when to attack - as we did laste in G6 and G7.. If there is extra motivation on SA side, I feel this almost makes it a wash.
-Wade. I've watched most of last years series this week and he really was not that bad. I think his health being better now is a little overblown, is a good knee going to give him a jumpshot? No. But it has to pay dividends defensively and in his cutting/mid range movement. If there really is a difference, great..it's a benefit - but I have to see it to believe it. Wade/LeBron dynamic will be interesting, Spo probably less hesitant to pull the plug on Wade if LeBron +3 shooters + Bosh or Bird is netting same results as last year.
-For all the fatigue talk this year I thought Miami was lackadaisical LAST year - horrible transition defense at times, poor defensive rotations. IF this is the case, it will show against San Antonio and they will get beat. My thought is right now they smell a 3peat and we get every last bit they have. I think they played two of their best games of the year in G4 and G6 vs Indy. I know, Indy. But we've all watched the Heat play every single playoff game for 4 years- I think we're at the point we can view their performance on it's own, and they were lights out in 2 outta last 3.
-A more aggressive Kawhi is scary. Played well last year but looks to be more assertive this run. If Spurs win, would not be surprised if he's Finals MVP. If LeBron is on Parker at any extended stretches, he better be punishing whoever is on him.
-Feels like Chalmers is due for a game or 2. Tends to do an ok job on Parker but if Chalmers goes at the rate he is, Cole will be called upon for a lot of minutes.
-Not quite buying the Western Conference being a gauntlet that the Spurs ran this year. No doubt better, by far - but Dallas, Portland and a semi Ibaka-less OKC ? Eh. They're getting by far their biggest challenge now, too.
-I think Diaw eats up most of all Splitter minutes. Just don't see Splitter being able to be on the floor much, at least next to Duncan. Diaw just seems to be a tricky match up for everyone and as a ball mover and post presence he's going to be tough to deal with.
-Mills/Green/Marco/Manu are going to shoot the leather off the ball for a game. Just what it is. Also exepcting a turn back the clock game from Duncan at some point.
Very little I'd be surprised at beyond this lasting less than 6 games. Just happy to have it as a basketball fan and actually get to catch G4 in person. Can't wait.