There seems to be a lot of confusion about how tax credits / rebates are applied. I will cover how they apply when financing or buying cash, I am not familiar with the leasing process.
Consider the example of a $50k model 3.
Whether you are paying cash or financing, you will be paying the entire price + taxes and fees. Let's assume that after taxes and fees, the total amount is $55k. That is the exact amount you will be on the hook for come delivery. Whether you pay 55k in cash or finance part of it is up to you.
After you have taken delivery of the car, you may qualify for tax credits and rebates. Let's look at two common ones, the federal tax credit and the CA state rebate.
For the federal tax credit of $7,500:
Throughout the year you may or may not pay federal income taxes. If you are employed at a company and receive a paycheck, income taxes are likely withheld every time you get a paycheck. This is money which you will owe to the government. Let's take a very simple example and pretend that you earn 100k during the year and have paid 35k in income taxes. When you do your yearly taxes, you will "owe" the government $0 dollars. In reality you owe the government $35k but you have already paid that during the year. Once you apply the tax credit of $7,500, the government will have then collected too much money from you. You will then get back $7,500 from the government. This is your money which you already paid!!!
If your tax bill is only $4k through the year, you will only be able to apply $4k in credit instead of the full $7,500. Other credits you receive will also have an impact.
Now we can look at the $2,500 CA rebate:
As long as CA has the funding for the program, you can apply for the rebate at any point after you purchase the vehicle. As long as you meet the requirements of the rebate, you will get a check for $2,500. You do not need to wait until tax season for this, you do not need to have a state tax bill of at least $2,500 in CA.