Russell, Grant, Towns primed to make immediate NBA impact
Even rarer than a sighting of Big Foot is that of a rookie making major contributions during the NBA playoffs. While some rookies are fortunate to play early in their careers, the vast majority are not ready to compete in a meaningful NBA game for a couple of seasons.
High draft picks are obviously taken by poor teams and usually have to play immediately. Minnesota's Andrew Wiggins and Milwaukee's Jabari Parker, prior to tearing his ACL, are prime examples. Other times, rookies surprise because of their talent, maturity and a particular strength that gets them on the court, even for top franchises. The most impressive rookie on a quality team this season was a rookie in name only: the Bulls' 24-year-old Nikola Mirotic, who prior to coming to the NBA had already spent six seasons playing at the highest level in Europe.
Which prospects in the 2015 draft class could make an immediate impact next season? Here are a three players well-positioned to get off to a fast start to their NBA careers:
D'Angelo Russell, Ohio State
Why he will contribute right away: Immediate playing time
I am expecting Russell to get off to a fast start to his NBA career even though he will play the first half of his rookie season as a teenager. In his only season at Ohio State, he showed that he not only possessed great skills, but also maturity and confidence well beyond his age.
Although he has not physically matured yet and there will be a learning curve for Russell as a point guard at the league's most dynamic position, he is likely to be put on the floor immediately and be allowed to grow into the position. By my count, there are at least five teams who will pick in the early part of the lottery that desperately need a point guard.
Point guards are used to having the ball in their hands and are not as reliant on their teammates for them to have success, so it may be easier for Russell to have an immediate impact. And because the NBA is officiated more closely with less contact on the perimeter than in college, strength is not the factor that it is in the low post.
The recent history of high draft picks who play the point guard position shows a high level of success early in their careers. Here are the rookie-year numbers of some of the NBA's best:
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Given that Russell had the same level of college success of most of the players on this list -- and that, like them, he can score and pass at such a high level -- I am expecting a fast start to his NBA career.
Jerian Grant, Notre Dame
Why he will contribute right away: Experience and maturity
Unlike Russell, who will be one of the youngest players taken in the first round, Jerian Grant is an "old man" by draft standards (he turns 23 in October). While some teams may in turn view him as a player with a low ceiling, others will interpret his four-year career at Notre Dame capped by All-American honors as a positive.
Because of the likelihood that Grant will be drafted in the middle of the first round and possibly by a playoff team, his combination of position size, experience and maturity could fit nicely with a team needing a young player who could step in quickly as a rotation player. I expect him to get off to a fast start as a rookie.
Grant will join a number of NBA players whose fathers have played in the league and, while it is only anecdotal evidence, I believe having an understanding of the "family business" will also make his adjustment as a rookie easier.
On the court, he'll arrive in the league as one of its best passing rookies who already excels at an NBA staple: the screen-and-roll game. Because of his size and high basketball I.Q., he can stretch a defense with his ability to find teammates open on the opposite side of a defensive coverage.
Although Grant was also a prolific scorer this past season, his outside shooting will need to improve to prevent opposing defenses from "shrinking the floor" on his team. His minutes will rise once he proves he is not a liability in this regard.
Grant is ultimately a safe selection because of his value as an offensive facilitator, his maturity and his intelligence. A fast start for him is finding a spot in a good team's rotation.
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky
Why he will contribute right away: Five-tool player
It doesn't take a brain surgeon to determine that a player likely selected in the first three picks will get off to a fast start to his NBA career, though players like Derrick Williams, Hasheem Thabeet and Michael Beasley could be classified as "busts."
I expect the 6-foot-11 Towns to start strong as an NBA rookie in part because he played his best basketball at the end of the season and rapidly improved. Keep in mind that he did not have a game with double-figure field-goal attempts until Feb. 3. That changed down the stretch of Kentucky's season.
In Towns' last five games, all in the NCAA tournament, he played 23 minutes per game and averaged 14.2 points and 6.8 rebounds while shooting 63 percent. And although he was part of Kentucky's season-long platoon system, he evolved into a major offensive weapon for the Wildcats.
Towns' freshman season per-40-minute numbers were remarkably similar to those of former Kentucky player and rising NBA star Anthony Davis, and just behind fellow former Wildcat DeMarcus Cousins.
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The 19-year-old freshman with a 7-foot-3 wingspan may not be as advanced as Davis, who was the consensus national player of the year. But he is the basketball equivalent of a five-tool player, with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give-a-damn meter" that runs high. These are all reasons why his NBA success should come early in his pro career.
April 30, 2015
