- 91,189
- 125,304
- Joined
- Sep 5, 2010
Ford & Pelton on WCS:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...siderTwitter_fordpelton_projectingcauleysteinProjecting Cauley-Stein in NBA
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
Question: Why hasn't Willie Cauley-Stein's rise up draft boards been mirrored by his WARP projection?
Kevin Pelton: No top upperclassman has done more to solidify his draft stock this season than Cauley-Stein, the junior center from Kentucky who is the only non-freshman NCAA player in the top 10 on Chad's most recent big board. Yet Cauley-Stein wasn't in the top 30 of my statistical big board; he currently ranks 44th in terms of projected WARP (1.2), a discrepancy that's worth considering.
From the perspective of box-score stats, Cauley-Stein hasn't improved dramatically from his sophomore season. While he's playing a larger role in the UK offense despite all the talent around him, Cauley-Stein has seen his block rate drop nearly by half from his sophomore season. So factoring in age, his projection is actually slightly worse than it was a year ago. What have scouts seen that has helped boost his stock?
Chad Ford: The raw appeal has nothing to really do with his box-score stats. It's the siren song of a super athletic 7-footer with the agility to defend, perhaps, all five positions on the floor. Those guys come along ... well, never. That's why he's in the conversation for a top-10 pick. He's inconsistent offensively, but his defensive upside is off the charts.
Question: What are Cauley-Stein's strengths and weaknesses?
Pelton: The big positive with Cauley-Stein is something my projection system usually loves: steal rate. Among players listed as centers in my database, Cauley-Stein's projected steal percentage (1.7 percent) would rank third behind DeJuan Blair and Nerlens Noel. In terms of both projected steal percentage and block percentage (4.4 percent), just two players can beat Cauley-Stein: Kentucky predecessors Noel and Anthony Davis.
The difference between Cauley-Stein and those players is on the glass. His projected defensive rebound percentage (15.9 percent) would be the worst of any NBA-bound center in my database. Cauley-Stein has had plenty of competition for rebounds from his teammates, including Noel, Julius Randle and now Karl-Anthony Towns. An adjustment for that competition is one reason Cauley-Stein scores so much better in Layne Vashro's draft projections. Still, it's hard to project Cauley-Stein as even an average rebounder in the NBA.
Ford: Cauley-Stein projects as a versatile, elite defender who has, time and time again, shut down the opposing team's best player when he's hot. I think he's a much better shot-blocker than his stats show this season. He's typically on the floor with another elite shot-blocker, Towns. With Towns protecting the rim, head coach John Calipari has used Cauley-Stein in all sorts of creative ways, including chasing players down on the perimeter and funneling them into a waiting Towns. If Towns wasn't on this team, Cauley-Stein would be used differently (like he was last season with Julius Randle) and his blocks would be way up.
While you're concerned about his rebounding numbers, it's his offense (or lack thereof) that scares me. He's still, three years into his college career, a major work in progress on offense. He's great in the open floor and alley-oops. He's showing the beginnings of a nice mid-range jumper. But his post game is still very raw and his shot selection can be highly questionable. He's going to be an offensive liability for a while.
The other knock you'll occasionally hear about Cauley-Stein is his personality. He's quirky and his entire life doesn't just center on basketball the way it does for so many other top prospects. That scares teams and makes them wonder whether he'll have the drive to improve his game at the next level.
Question: What is an NBA comparison for Cauley-Stein?
Pelton: SCHOENE's best comp for Cauley-Stein at the same age is former Florida State center Solomon Alabi, who played two seasons for the Toronto Raptors but never stuck in the NBA. The next two players are more encouraging: Larry Sanders and Joakim Noah. Throwing out age, Minnesota Timberwolves center Gorgui Dieng was a good match, though he was a year and a half older and has evolved into a better offensive player in the pros (but a weaker defender) than his college stats suggested. Subjectively, I think like Cauley-Stein could be a rich man's version of Ryan Hollins. Is that selling him short, Chad?
Ford: I think so. He'd better be better than Hollins or Alabi if he's going to be a top-10 pick. I hear Tyson Chandler comps a lot from NBA teams. Sanders, too. I actually think Noel might be the right comp -- an agile, versatile, athletic big man who can collect high rates of blocks and steals but struggles to score.
Question: Who's your sleeper this week?
Pelton: Wade Baldwin IV, PG, Fr., Vanderbilt
Baldwin recently made the national headlines for all the wrong reasons -- he was on the receiving end of Commodores coach Kevin Stallings' verbal abuse after taunting a Tennessee player in the postgame handshake line. I suspect eventually we'll know Baldwin for his work on the court. I threw him into my projections after seeing how well he rated by Vashro's metrics, and he jumped immediately to 11th in projected WARP. That overstates Baldwin's readiness to play in the NBA -- he shot just 37.0 percent on 2-point attempts in the SEC -- but he's shown promise for a freshman point guard. Per Sports-Reference.com, Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell is the only other major-conference freshman who has averaged at least 8.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG and 4.0 APG, and past players meeting those criteria have tended to get to the NBA. So look out for Baldwin in the 2016 or 2017 draft.
My sleeper is: Domantas Sabonis, F, Fr., Gonzaga
I know I appear to have this fascination for freshman who don't start for their own teams, but Sabonis is quietly drawing major attention from NBA scouts and I can see why. Some of it, I'm sure, is the fact that his father is Arvydas Sabonis, perhaps the greatest international big man of all time. But more of it has to do with his elite rebounding ability (his total rebounding percentage is better than any freshman or sophomore in the country at 18.9 percent), size, great shooting percentages (74 percent at the rim, 48 percent on 2-point jumpers) and high basketball IQ for a player who doesn't turn 19 until May.
I know he's not an elite athlete (though his motor makes up for some of that), nor does he have a 3-point shot, but every time I see him on the floor, he passes the eye test as a big man who could really have a nice career in the NBA. We have him at No. 29 on our Big Board, but it feels too low. Especially given the fact that some teams see him as the perfect draft-and-stash candidate.
Pelton: Sabonis is currently 45th on my board, directly behind Cauley-Stein, but when players withdraw from the draft, I suspect he'll end up about the same spot as your big board if he decides to enter. Sabonis definitely makes sense as a stash candidate if he's interested in heading back overseas, since he's not yet ready to contribute in the NBA (my projections have him below replacement level next season), but at 18 he's one of the youngest players potentially in this draft class.
My big concern: Sabonis definitely isn't a rim protector (0.6 blocks per 40 minutes this year) and he doesn't figure to develop into a floor spacer (66.3 percent free throw shooting is a poor indicator in that regard). That's a tough spot for modern big men.