I just had a revelation as I was driving to work this morning. I was spinning Stops, thinking about
those statistics posted yesterday, and realized that those are the odds of getting each individual item, which is
different than odds of getting it with each spin.
Using data collected on
items dropped per stop, we know that the number of items dropped averages just over three items per stop, excluding stop bonuses... Multiplying that times the 0.14% rate from before, we get a probability of 0.44% chance of getting an evolution item at a given Stop, though that chance COULD be higher if stop bonuses affect your chance of getting an evolution item.
tl;dr, corrected number is STILL less than a 1% chance... it's comparable to one item every 227 stops, which IS a lot better than the 715 I thought it was before.
Yeah, that link mentions that "Egg drop rates are obviously bigger than 0.83%, the number is so low due to full bags!" So if you have an empty slot for an egg, you have a much better chance of getting one than what's shown here. Several people have mentioned that they might as well have left eggs out, since they have no impact on other items dropped- they are completely independent.