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Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of threedoors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick adoor, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opensanother door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do youwant to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?