The bad, good and bad of this sudden Warriors anti-climax
By Tim Kawakami
Friday, April 11th, 2008 at 4:41 pm in
NBA,
Warriors.
I'm
not as tired as the Big 3, but I'm definitely tired.
Since beating Toronto at home on March 12, the Warriors have gone 7-9, have chased 50 wins and last night disastrous gave Denver every chance to clinch the 8th spot in the final three games.
So this will be quick, and I'm sure we'll all re-visit these issues many more times before next October..
The GOOD and BAD things that the Warriors and their fans have to accept, embrace and deal with now that they need a miracle to make the playoffs…
* GOOD: They've got 47 victories and, if they win out, would register only their fifth 50+ victory season since they moved to the Bay Area.
* BAD: They did not want to become the first team since the start of the 16-team playoff format to miss the playoffs with more than 45 victories.
* GOOD: Unlike last year, the Warriors weren't trending towards a monster first-round performance even if they'd made the playoffs, so this might've saved them a sweep embarrassment.
With Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson and Monta Ellis all noticeably wearing down and with the Warriors' bench thinning by the game, it's hard to see how they would have any kind of momentum heading into potential tussles with New Orleans or San Antonio.
* BAD: It's always better to make the playoffs-even if it leads to a sweep-than to miss. The Warriors had hoped to make the franchise's first back-t0-back playoff trips since 1990-91/1991-92.
* GOOD (for Don Nelson): Last summer's holdout netted him the $2M that originally was intended as possible bonuses for this year. Turns out to have been quite wise on Nelson's part, no?
His bonuses would have been: If the Warriors had made the playoffs ($1M) and advanced a round ($1M). Neither thing is likely to happen. Yet Nelson has already gotten paid.
Smart man.
* SORT OF BAD (for Chris Cohan): Cohan already guaranteed Nelson's full $5.1M for next season. Not that the Warriors have any other choice at head coach, and not that Nelson didn't do a very good job this season, too…
But Nelson is a $5M coach if he's in the playoffs. If he's not… well…
* SORT OF GOOD (for Cohan): Now Nelson will have a much tougher time trying another holdout this summer. Theoretically. Not that he won't attempt it.
* VERY GOOD (for Cohan): The Warriors got the deposit from loads of season-ticket holders to renew for next year… a few weeks ago.
* BAD: Chris Mullin (or one of his aides) has to grit through another draft lottery on May 20-something Mullin never, never, ever wanted to do again.
* GOOD: The Warriors might get extraordinarily lucky and win the No. 1 pick-hello, Michael Beasley! I think it's a .5% shot, so… maybe not.
It'll be the 14th pick, and that's not a bad spot in a pretty deep draft. Kevin Love if they're lucky, with Darrell Arthur, Robin Lopez and Earl Clark among many, many other possibilities.
* BAD: Baron Davis could opt-out of the final year of his deal, which would put the Warriors in jeopardy of losing their franchise player.
* GOOD: Davis probably won't opt-out of the deal… and if he does, there might not be a race to throw $80M at his feet. Also: If he does, the Warriors would suddenly have some extra money lying around.
* BAD: The Warriors will have major decisions to make on Monta Ellis (restricted free agent), Andris Biedrins (restricted) and possibly Kelenna Azubuike (can become unrestricted) and Matt Barnes (unrestricted).
I'm assuming Mullin will do anything to keep Ellis, will do a lot to keep Biedrins (though Nelson will have a say there) and will good-bye to Azubuike and Barnes, if there other bidders.
I'm assuming Mickael Pietrus (unrestricted) and Patrick O'Bryant (unrestricted) are all but gone already.
* GOOD: Mullin was wise to hold the line last summer on Davis, Biedrins, Barnes and Pietrus.
The decision not to keep O'Bryant's rights beyond this season could back-fire, but obviously had to do with Nelson's distaste for stand-still centers.
* GOOD: The Warriors still have the $10M trade exception acquired in the Jason Richardson deal-it won't lapse until a few days after the June 26 draft.
* BAD: The Warriors traded Richardson for Brandan Wright and the exception… and (yes, I must say so) could really either have used Richardson down the back stretch… or they could've, you know, actually started playing Wright back in January
* GOOD: Assuming Nelson is back, he'll have to at least try to establish some kind of low-post presence to counter-act this team's obvious weaknesses-defensively and offensively.
Right? Won't he have to do that?
* GOOD: Assuming Nelson is back next year, he'll have to be serious about developing a bench.
That means Wright, Marco Belinelli, possibly C.J. Watson, possibly Kosta Perovic, and whoever else the Warriors acquire this off-season.
* BAD: Mullin actually has to acquire a bunch of new players-that Nellie will play. (Austin Croshere was a wash this season; Troy Hudson was a wash-out.)
I'm thinking they for sure need two energy forwards (to replace Pietrus and Barnes), probably a back-up 2-guard (to replace Azubuike), possibly a back-up point guard (if it's not Watson), probably a back-up center, and, oh by the way, SOMEBODY TO PLAY POWER FORWARD (if Wright is worked in slowly).
That doesn't count the possibility of trading or losing Biedrins and Ellis, trading Al Harrington and the whole Baron Opt-Out Experience.
* GOOD: At least they didn't try to keep putting Chris Webber out there.
* BAD: They tried to put Webber out there. From now on, Nelson's decisions won't be regarded as infallible… and this goes right to his refusal to develop a bench.
* GOOD AND BAD: SJax was once again the Warriors' second-best player, never got into trouble, and played well much of the time… though he hit the wall around the All-Star break.
He's under contract for two more years at a very reasonable price. But how good can the Warriors be if SJax is shooting and missing so many shots?
* GOOD: Nelson is very good at figuring out creative way out of minor and major problems.
Will he go smaller? Decide that Biedrins is expendable? Try to get the No. 1 pick and rebuild around Derrick Rose?
We really don't know. That's good. And that's bad.
]), and then Houston at home the VERY next night. It's very possible, just closeout Phoenix.
