Official Stock Market Thread

[wawaweewa]

The 900 point rally was the water rushing out before the Tsunami hits.
These are the days when the people in the know are just trying to make some last minute money before the economy really starts to deteriorate for at least thenext 12 months.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by RDubb

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for awhile at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt putit past these crooks.

Long-Term investors should not be putting money into the market. theone2401 is right, our economic data is not looking good. Plus you have to realize that these companies we're trading right now aren't going to have superb news when they release quarterly reports. I think I read that economists are expecting a 12-18 month bear market. Long-term investing involves following the natural upward trend in the market but when the market is trending downward, it doesn't pay to put money into the market.

That said, short-term traders should be looking to capitalize off of this current volatility. People don't know where many of these companies should be trading at, so there is going to be a lot of swings in the prices of many companies. I expect to see a lot of large percent-wise movements in the market. Morgan Stanley was a big example of that, moving almost 100% in price on Monday.

As for NCC, there are a number of companies looking to purchase it right now. It's price is trading on anxiety and more news on its situation should cause a big change in it's price.
No doubt. This is a traders market. But alot of the people in here dont seem to be traders. I made a grip off of Fannie when it was sup dollar andwent to two. I just dont want to see some of the inexperienced investors on NT get crushed on NCC because they dont know when to get out. NCC is going to beseized or bought either way the shareholders will be wiped out. People see to act like these stocks are cheap for no reason. They are extremely risky becauseif you leave your money in them overnight there is a great chance some news will come out when your sleeping and you wake up and your stock is trading for 30cents. I would not be able to sleep at night if i told someone on NT to go long NCC I am just trying to be responsible with my comments and statements becauseI am aware of the people I am speaking to.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by RDubb

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful.

Not really.

The bigger problem is that of the derivatives market. This is what this is all about. The current problem is hastening the implosion of the derivatives market.
Every move that the Feds, the FED, and other central banks are making is to prevent the disintegration of the derivatives market.

Until the derivatives market is dismantled or at least liquidated into a much smaller market than the bigger problem still exists.

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.




It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity marketswill start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.
Its going to be hard for a bubble to come about in this situation. It was a little different back then. This is a CONSUMER led recession. This isa totally different animal. People are going to be less interested in risk than you have ever seen in your life I bet. There was no real hit to the consumerduring the dot com bubble that was isolated very well.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.





I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. Thefiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a yearto the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from that chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does notdetermine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

Me and you both know the Fed cause the boom and bust cycle but I dont think the Fed determines where these cycles are. Wall Street on the other hand

lets make derivatives on top of derivatives on top of derivatives and then usemodels to value them that we make up as we go along because we can mark to model WO HOOO. Then lets sell them to banks and cities and states and companies andthen go out and buy CDS' on them because we know we just sold them ticking time bombs! I love america

 

[kicksfiend]

Its going to be hard for a bubble to come about in this situation. It was a little different back then. This is a CONSUMER led recession. This is a totally different animal. People are going to be less interested in risk than you have ever seen in your life I bet. There was no real hit to the consumer during the dot com bubble that was isolated very well.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.


The subprime mortgage bubble is said to have been a monetary policy created bubble. The amount of loans given out by some of these mortgage loans are a resultof the Fed keeping interest rates low after the internet bubble. I don't see how we can enact any monetary policy that is completely void of any loopholeor incentive for the financial markets to take advantage of.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Its going to be hard for a bubble to come about in this situation. It was a little different back then. This is a CONSUMER led recession. This is a totally different animal. People are going to be less interested in risk than you have ever seen in your life I bet. There was no real hit to the consumer during the dot com bubble that was isolated very well.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.


The subprime mortgage bubble is said to have been a monetary policy created bubble. The amount of loans given out by some of these mortgage loans are a result of the Fed keeping interest rates low after the internet bubble. I don't see how we can enact any monetary policy that is completely void of any loophole or incentive for the financial markets to take advantage of.
That is true but that is making it to simple. Regardless of how easy money was for banks they would have never took as much risk as they did ifthey werent able to pass that on to counterparties through mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac allowed them to sell their mortgages forcapital they could then reinvest. If it wasnt for these FISCAL POLICIES (Fannie and Freddy). The extra capital created by the Fed would have went into anotherasset class.

This was a perfect storm of Fiscal Policy and loose Monetary Policy and a consumer culture that has no savings.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.
I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determineswhere the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tightencredit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Its going to be hard for a bubble to come about in this situation. It was a little different back then. This is a CONSUMER led recession. This is a totally different animal. People are going to be less interested in risk than you have ever seen in your life I bet. There was no real hit to the consumer during the dot com bubble that was isolated very well.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

The subprime mortgage bubble is said to have been a monetary policy created bubble. The amount of loans given out by some of these mortgage loans are a result of the Fed keeping interest rates low after the internet bubble. I don't see how we can enact any monetary policy that is completely void of any loophole or incentive for the financial markets to take advantage of.
That is true but that is making it to simple. Regardless of how easy money was for banks they would have never took as much risk as they did if they werent able to pass that on to counterparties through mortgage backed securities. Fannie Mae and Freddy Mac allowed them to sell their mortgages for capital they could then reinvest. If it wasnt for these FISCAL POLICIES (Fannie and Freddy). The extra capital created by the Fed would have went into another asset class.

This was a perfect storm of Fiscal Policy and loose Monetary Policy and a consumer culture that has no savings.



Of course but as long as the FED provides cheap capital than people will find schemes to make money off of that capital.
One by product is coming up with new "financial instruments".

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determines where the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tighten credit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.




Ok let me rephrase because we agree and we just dont realize it. No huge bubble can exist with out leverage and thus monetary policy. But speculation orbubble making is human phenomena not a policy phenomena.

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.
YES. But I think it is just as important where the bubble is created. Some bubbles are much more harmful then others. So to ignore the Fiscalinfluence I think is short sighted. The housing bubble has the potential to create a total systematic melt down of the financial system. the dot com bubble waschilds play in comparison.

Then you have to factor in Wall Streets desire to pass this risk on to EVERYONE. Instead of containing it into the specific industry they got everyone involvedby their finanical engineering. Fiscal Policy allowed them to lever up 30 to 1 not the Fed. I just think they both have to happen simultaneously inorder to geta bubble like this one. This is of epic proportions.

I am not letting the Fed off the hook by any means but their ability to destory the world has to be helped by fiscal policy in order turn it into a damnnuclear bomb.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determines where the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tighten credit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.

Ok let me rephrase because we agree and we just dont realize it. No huge bubble can exist with out leverage and thus monetary policy. But speculation or bubble making is human phenomena not a policy phenomena.

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.
YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.


Pretty much .
Without artificial capital , bubbles that are created naturally, do not burst all of a sudden. They have a very different mechanism of liquidating themselves.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.
We disagree here.

Congress can mandate all they want but if the Banks aren't receiving cheap capital that they can lend out than not much can happen.
Loose monetary policy (Greenspan's policy) allowed for Congress to set up GSO like Fannie and Freddie.......

Of course both the Private banking system and the Feds benefit from their collusion but monetary policy is far more important in terms of shaping an economythan fiscal policy.

 

[dam itz lou]

Can someone recommend me a book to read to learn on how stocks run ?

Whats the best site to buy stocks for a beginner ?

 

[theone2401]

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determines where the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tighten credit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.

Ok let me rephrase because we agree and we just dont realize it. No huge bubble can exist with out leverage and thus monetary policy. But speculation or bubble making is human phenomena not a policy phenomena.

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.


Pretty much .
Without artificial capital , bubbles that are created naturally, do not burst all of a sudden. They have a very different mechanism of liquidating themselves.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.
We disagree here.

Congress can mandate all they want but if the Banks aren't receiving cheap capital that they can lend out than not much can happen.
Loose monetary policy (Greenspan's policy) allowed for Congress to set up GSO like Fannie and Freddie.......

Of course both the Private banking system and the Feds benefit from their collusion.







It just seems to me peak credit will be reached way before things become radioactive if the fiscal policy is not backing up monetary. The Fed can start thefire but they can not make it burn at white hot with out the gubbment. But I guess the ability of the bankers to influece fiscal policy makes this point kindamoot because they are massaging bubbles from both sides. The point is the Federal Reserve is an abomination and their mixture of incompetence and greed hascreated a mess they dont even seem to be able to soothe. The deflation train is coming and I dont want to be standing in front it because Apple is a 52 weeklow.

Can someone recommend me a book to read to learn on how stocks run ?

Whats the best site to buy stocks for a beginner ?
It depends on what kind of investor you are trying to be or if you wanna learn anything you can. There are bunch of books by Thomas Bulkowski thatteach you how to trade on technicals. Your going to also need to learn how companies are valuae. Try to become familiar wiht betas and alphas and CAPM.Investopedia.com has a TON of information. I use thinkorswim.com to trade but their interface is not newb friendly. I started on Ameritrade it has good flatrate of 10 per trade no matter what.

My recommendation is to open a paper account on yahoo or thinkorswim or something and practice. This is not a enviornment for newbs. They have a tendacy to buystocks they recognize that are cheap and have unwarranted optimism about a company that is days away from bankruptcy or seizure. If you must buy now you haveto find good companys with squeaky clean balance sheets in sectors that havent been inflated to the moon because of these bubbles. Good luck dude. You work atMorgan Stanley you should ask them too they are pretty good I hear.

 

[wawaweewa]

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determines where the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tighten credit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.

Ok let me rephrase because we agree and we just dont realize it. No huge bubble can exist with out leverage and thus monetary policy. But speculation or bubble making is human phenomena not a policy phenomena.

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.

Pretty much .
Without artificial capital , bubbles that are created naturally, do not burst all of a sudden. They have a very different mechanism of liquidating themselves.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.
We disagree here.

Congress can mandate all they want but if the Banks aren't receiving cheap capital that they can lend out than not much can happen.
Loose monetary policy (Greenspan's policy) allowed for Congress to set up GSO like Fannie and Freddie.......

Of course both the Private banking system and the Feds benefit from their collusion.







It just seems to me peak credit will be reached way before things become radioactive if the fiscal policy is not backing up monetary. The Fed can start the fire but they can not make it burn at white hot with out the gubbment. But I guess the ability of the bankers to influece fiscal policy makes this point kinda moot because they are massaging bubbles from both sides. The point is the Federal Reserve is an abomination and their mixture of incompetence and greed has created a mess they dont even seem to be able to soothe. The deflation train is coming and I dont want to be standing in front it because Apple is a 52 week low.

Yeh. Apple's stock (and its fluctuations) has always been interesting.
Apple's marketing is so good that the reality that their marketing creates is far from actual reality.

The brand depends on marketing. Not so much on the products themselves.

 

[kicksfiend]

^^^I like the back and forth up there. I'd like to believe I know a lot but I like to read what others think.

 

[dam itz lou]

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by theone2401

Originally Posted by wawaweewa

Originally Posted by kicksfiend

Originally Posted by theone2401

RDubb wrote:

---

If youre young and looking for the long term then now would be a good time to be dollar cost averaging. Good to be greedy when others are fearful

I agree wholeheartedly. But I was referring to the people who are getting ready to retire. I see no real growth (maybe nominally) in stocks as an asset for a while at least. Unless of course another bubble is created

wouldnt put it past these crooks.

It's only a matter of time before a bubble arises. As soon as people see a viable option to make money with, everyone will do it and the equity markets will start overvalue itself again. Our bubbles seem to be closer together now. The internet bubble was less than 10 years ago.

Monetary policy creates bubbles.
M3 charts have an almost uncanny correlation with market movements.

I wouldnt go that far. Monetary policy makes little bubbles into big bubbles. People would have ran into housing regardless of the Fed's policies. The fiscal policies were in place and stocks and bonds were not returning anything. But the Fed was the one who made the housing bubble into a parabolic 8% a year to the moon bubble.

No doubt you can derive correlation from thhat chart and they definetly influnce each other but I dont think you can determine causation. The Fed does not determine where capital flows only how much capital is available to flow.

I agree with you but small bubbles aren't really bubbles. That is just normal capital flow.

Monetary policy can create artificial flows that do create bubbles that burst "all of a sudden". It doesn't matter whether the FED determines where the capital flows just as long as it flows. An excess (artificial) of capital creates bubbles that "burst" when the FED decides to tighten credit.

However, I disagree in that there is no causation regarding Monetary policy and bubble's. Every huge bubble could be traced to loose monetary policy.

Ok let me rephrase because we agree and we just dont realize it. No huge bubble can exist with out leverage and thus monetary policy. But speculation or bubble making is human phenomena not a policy phenomena.

This is sort of like the Chicken or the egg debate.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.

Pretty much .
Without artificial capital , bubbles that are created naturally, do not burst all of a sudden. They have a very different mechanism of liquidating themselves.

YES. And I think neither came first they both came at the same time.
We disagree here.

Congress can mandate all they want but if the Banks aren't receiving cheap capital that they can lend out than not much can happen.
Loose monetary policy (Greenspan's policy) allowed for Congress to set up GSO like Fannie and Freddie.......

Of course both the Private banking system and the Feds benefit from their collusion.







It just seems to me peak credit will be reached way before things become radioactive if the fiscal policy is not backing up monetary. The Fed can start the fire but they can not make it burn at white hot with out the gubbment. But I guess the ability of the bankers to influece fiscal policy makes this point kinda moot because they are massaging bubbles from both sides. The point is the Federal Reserve is an abomination and their mixture of incompetence and greed has created a mess they dont even seem to be able to soothe. The deflation train is coming and I dont want to be standing in front it because Apple is a 52 week low.

Can someone recommend me a book to read to learn on how stocks run ?

Whats the best site to buy stocks for a beginner ?
It depends on what kind of investor you are trying to be or if you wanna learn anything you can. There are bunch of books by Thomas Bulkowski that teach you how to trade on technicals. Your going to also need to learn how companies are valuae. Try to become familiar wiht betas and alphas and CAPM. Investopedia.com has a TON of information. I use thinkorswim.com to trade but their interface is not newb friendly. I started on Ameritrade it has good flat rate of 10 per trade no matter what.

My recommendation is to open a paper account on yahoo or thinkorswim or something and practice. This is not a enviornment for newbs. They have a tendacy to buy stocks they recognize that are cheap and have unwarranted optimism about a company that is days away from bankruptcy or seizure. If you must buy now you have to find good companys with squeaky clean balance sheets in sectors that havent been inflated to the moon because of these bubbles. Good luck dude. You work at Morgan Stanley you should ask them too they are pretty good I hear.

At this point I just want to learn anything. Just wanna get my feet wet. I wanna start off with small stocks to learn how things work. Just wantedto make sure...

Buying - Can you just buy whatever you want on trade sites at any time ? or do you buy it off someone whos selling the stock you want ?

Selling - In order to sell someone has to buy the stock off of you ?

Trading - Trading stocks with people ?

 

[kicksfiend]

Originally Posted by Dam itz Lou

At this point I just want to learn anything. Just wanna get my feet wet. I wanna start off with small stocks to learn how things work. Just wanted to make sure...

Buying - Can you just buy whatever you want on trade sites at any time ? or do you buy it off someone whos selling the stock you want ?

Selling - In order to sell someone has to buy the stock off of you ?

Trading - Trading stocks with people ?

All brokerages allow you to trade U.S. securities, meaning all U.S. exchanges AMEX, NYSE, NASDAQ, and Over-The-Counter (OTC's are just companies notlisted). Some brokerages let you trade other exchanges such as the FTSE, Nikkei or w.e.
In terms of when you can trade, some brokerages allow after-hours trading but infrequently I think. Many others just hold the order until the markets open.
In terms of buying and sell, you never interact with whoever buys or sells the shares you have. Your brokerage puts in the order and if they can't settleit, they go to someone else who settles it. There are specialists at all the exchanges who spend their day dealing with orders. You have to understand that theprice you see when you put in the order may be different from the price you buy or sell the shares at. There are limit orders that put requirements on yourorders so that if you miss the window of opportunity, you do not go through with it. Learning about limit-orders is very important to ensure the efficiency ofyour trades.

 

[mnmballa2323]

anybody make any money? i baught 500 shares of ABK last week, put in an order to sell it when it hit $3 and it hit $3 this morning..unfortunately it went up ashigh as $3.88 today but its cool..i made a quick $500 and got out

 

[mnmballa2323]

wheres your money at? u think GM will pop back up?

 

[sorkoram]

Originally Posted by MnMballa2323

wheres your money at? u think GM will pop back up?

[color= rgb(255, 0, 0)]I wouldn't touch U.S. Auto or Airline stocks with myenemy's money right now..but thats just me

Ford/GM is a risk, do you feel lucky??

All in all I thought the market acted rather well today considering the panic mode of the rest of the world. More like a normal fundamental day, with regardto the frightening start of the day. Still have to get through next week and the election because the market hates uncertainty. However, the forced sellingdid not cascade the market down 7-10% like I thought might happen today. Could the sellers be tired? This is the fiscal year end for many institutionalinvestors this month. Oil is under $65 and for the second straight month housing sales are up. The LIBOR seems to be acting better and credit markets seem tohave risen above 0 degrees kelvin. Maybe, just maybe, the light at the end of the tunnel is just that a light and not a train?!?

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[mnmballa2323]

stock market was crazy today...anybody make some money?

 

[lazyj10]

Watched this rally my entire flight home...."analysts" couldn't really pinpoint why this was happening outside of a lot of buying (someconfidence) and not as much selling.

then again, they had no clue why yesterday ended how it did

Tomorrow will be interesting if the fed goes through with a rate cut....profit taking?

 

[proshares]

Originally Posted by LazyJ10

Watched this rally my entire flight home...."analysts" couldn't really pinpoint why this was happening outside of a lot of buying (some confidence) and not as much selling.

then again, they had no clue why yesterday ended how it did

Tomorrow will be interesting if the fed goes through with a rate cut....profit taking?

Borrowing and lending will take some hits but I'm pretty sure the market will react positively like it has w/the last 2 cuts.