OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET & ECONOMY THREAD VOL. SCHOOL'S OUT

[runningfishy]

What do you guys think about the fiscal cliff? Will politicians let it happen resulting in a freefall on the market , like last year when debt limit had to be raised. Or will they act in time?

There's a lot of talk about this, but some things never, ever change!

Some food for thought though. I'm no Precious Metal bull/bug, but my pops has been a collector of that stuff and I've gotten into it a few years ago. As much as I bash things, I still stash a couple of coins here and there. I don't look at it as an investment, but at the possibility of the world going awry. I'm not calling for doomsday or anything like that. I'd rather have diff't asset classes if something does hit during my lifetime. If not, I'll pass it onto my kids.

Nothing ever lasts, and that's applicable to the US as a super power.

With that said, some compromise and resolution will take place. Truth is, nothing will ever address the real issue of 'debt'.

 

[dajoka004]

My money is ready for next week. April BCS on Monday with leftover cash to make a play on any post-earnings dip Friday. $123 in cash per share. No debt. Enormous demand. Enormous growth. I'm ready.

 

[galaxynexus]

My money is ready for next week. April BCS on Monday with leftover cash to make a play on any post-earnings dip Friday. $123 in cash per share. No debt. Enormous demand. Enormous growth. I'm ready.

Which stock?

 

[galaxynexus]

My money is ready for next week. April BCS on Monday with leftover cash to make a play on any post-earnings dip Friday. $123 in cash per share. No debt. Enormous demand. Enormous growth. I'm ready.

Which stock?

 

[runningfishy]

No.
Any market is governed by the law of supply and demand. Supply and demand is governed by the decisions of the consumer base (investors...or speculators, if you will). Consumers react to news. News is the driving force behind supply and demand in the market, which governs the price of stocks.
Obviously investing overall is a bit more complex, but to say news reacts to stocks is false. The markets are always at the mercy of the psyche of the investors, and news influences investors greatly.

There is no law w/ supply and demand, especially in the stock market. It might be more applicable w/ currencies though, but definitely not the stock market.

You cannot be too serious. If you suggested me this 20 years ago, I would agree w/o much issues, but the world is diff't now, and the type of 'news' you're talking about doesn't make sense at all. The 'news' I'm talking about are the unexplainable losses you see with a position when a stock sells lower, despite earnings growth, good sales, etc etc. The type of 'news', I'm talking about is the bull crap talk about google not hitting targets, and having its earnings leaked out, causing a 10% drop.

Now, the law of supply and demand is what I call 'liquidity' and isn't the same as the supply and demand you speak of. Sentiment is another thing, but it gets complicated. To keep it simple, 'everything' is priced in. EVERYTHING. The way computers trade stocks down the pips have made 'news' irrelevant.

The retail guys believe the news talk, but that is not the case on the other side of the desk, nor is it any relevant to many of us.

In the end, you can believe what you want to believe. I'm just throwing in my 2 cents.

Laters

 

[galaxynexus]

Anyone looking at AAPL following a possible post-earnings dip?

 

[cl0bro]

AAPL is hurting my feelings... Bought in at 660.. Look where it's today :-(... Bah guess I'll just have to hold onto it a little longer,.. And go back to buying silver and gold.. The market has been way too disappointing for me lately.

 

[Betonblck]

Anyone looking at AAPL following a possible post-earnings dip?

That's the stock you were asking DaJoka about

 

[rexmakesbeats]

i'll pick up some AAPL at 575

 

[johnnyredstorm]

monday bcs

 

[cl0bro]

I hope AAPL doesn't drop to 575.. I need it to go back up so i can atleast break even and throw my $ somewhere else... Where does everyone see AAPL after iPad mini announcement?..

 

[johnnyredstorm]

a: you should've been trading with a stop to avoid this
b: apple will eventually get to $700 and take off

 

[freakydestroyer]

Whether AAPL beats earnings is anyones guess. Holding through earnings is gambling. Play accordingly.

 

[freakydestroyer]

I hope AAPL doesn't drop to 575.. I need it to go back up so i can atleast break even and throw my $ somewhere else... Where does everyone see AAPL after iPad mini announcement?..

Hoping and praying does not work in this game. You should have set your stop. AAPL is still guilty until proven innocent. Of course earnings can change that. But it can go either way.

 

[Betonblck]

Hoping and praying does not work in this game. You should have set your stop. AAPL is still guilty until proven innocent. Of course earnings can change that. But it can go either way.

I think Apple goes lower after earnings unless there are blowout numbers. I think the market and overall weak earnings drags down everything next week and cash flows out of the market and we see some multiple compression.

The cash inflows/outflows from the market are stronger than earnings and will drive Apple's stock next week. (Earnings for Apple are next week, right?)

 

[cl0bro]

I completely agree with what you're saying freaky destroyer.. I'm not really worried with losing $ with APPL... just disappointed with my decisions I made.. Plus it doesn't help that I bought AAPL with my TFSA.. so im very limited as to what I can do... I'm very tempted to buy in with margin account though lol

 

[still itachi]

I hope AAPL doesn't drop to 575.. I need it to go back up so i can atleast break even and throw my $ somewhere else... Where does everyone see AAPL after iPad mini announcement?..

Here's the thing...holding until you break even is a losing game. It might work out for you, but it's a loser's mentality. think fundamentally...either you like Apple's future prospects and you hold or even buy some more....

....or you think the honeymoon is over and you cut your losses and reinvest in what you believe is a better firm.

Personally, I think you should be buying all you can afford with the price drop. In fact, if the price actually drops to $575... You would be looking at the world's most valuable company, with room to grow revenue (at worst) at a 10-15% rate for the next 3-5 years, trading at less than 14 times earnings and with nearly 2% dividend yield that's likely to get bumped up soon, which still hasn't tapped into the world's largest mobile subscriber base.

There are some very real short term concerns, such as the supply chain issues that are plaguing them right now. But with all that's in their favor right now, how could you not buy more of this company right now?!

 

[rexmakesbeats]

just average down, AAPL is a solid stock

 

[cl0bro]

^ I know my thinking is flawed with the trading game.. It's just my tfsa which is very limited.. I'm not too worried though.. I set that account up more for swing trading or longterm.. I'm just feeling a little annoyed with the decisions I made.. Oh well live and learn.. Oh and unfortunately I can't average down ... I invested my maximum amount in that account $20k.. And every year after that I can invest 5k.. Upside is I can keep all my profits.. With the downside of it being very limited as to what I can do... No options trading.. No margin... After I sell stock.. I only get the funds roughly a week later.

 

[freakydestroyer]

Nice bounce AAPL. Let's see if it holds.

 

[johnnyredstorm]

this guy i follow on twitter that knows his stuff just posted a video on apple

http://stocktwits.com/message/10118885

 

[mrkane]

aapl is pulling back and so will the rest of the market. we're going down first before we go up any higher. we're already back at our highs before the 2008 crash.

exactly. i remember buying aapl at $122 in early 2009. if i knew then what i knew now waiting for that market reset

 

[freakydestroyer]

this guy i follow on twitter that knows his stuff just posted a video on apple
http://stocktwits.com/message/10118885

I used to watch his videos during my rookie days. I like his rules like adhere to your stops, raise your stops, don't get emotional, etc. He's pretty good at looking at the bigger trend, but his day trades are Fade material.

 

[dajoka004]

My money is ready for next week. April BCS on Monday with leftover cash to make a play on any post-earnings dip Friday. $123 in cash per share. No debt. Enormous demand. Enormous growth. I'm ready.

Too quick of a rise this AM for me. Reserving cash for any post-earnings dip after Thursday. Tomorrow will tell us if this is just an oversold bounce or something more.

My projection for share price from Thursday until January earnings based on a 9.50 EPS (44.99 TTM), $130.50 cash/share:

P/E range 12.97-16.39: 583.56 - 737.57
P/C range 4.39-5.54: 572.38-723.59

The P/E and P/C are averages of the highs and lows in between each earnings from the announcement of 4Q11 earnings until now.

So yes, I believe we reclaim $700 at some point before January calls expire.

 

[dajoka004]

Was considering selling my Jan 13 550/560 and 575/600 BCS today. Closing well above the SMA100 stopped me.