antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,607
- 68,265
+24.3% on the S&P in 2023. Fed cutting cycle plus an election year in 2024
S&P 5400
S&P 5400
OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by johnnyredstorm,
- Start date
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
Up 10k the past 2 weeks. Strong way to end the year.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,415
- 27,028
Wouldn’t an election year plus fed cutting rates make
2024 hella choppy? Would be shocked if we end the year close to average gains.
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
Up 10k the past 2 weeks. Strong way to end the year.
Rest of yr return?
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,607
- 68,265
Not if you use history as a guide. Outside of your exogenous shocks (Tech Bubble, GFC, Great Depression, etc), the market finishes up during election years.
The market also rallies during a cutting cycle
"Looking at soft landings even more broadly, the S&P 500 typically rallies by roughly 15% on average in the 12 months after the first cut (going back to 1965)"
2023 in Review: Rates, Rallies and Reflections | J.P. Morgan
The Fed finishes 2023 with a bang, plus 40 notable events that helped shape markets this year.
I really don't think 10% is unreasonable.
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
I was down 25k for the year.. made it back and netted this 10k in 2 weeks.So flat L52?
Congrats brother
All of this with 500 capital. Took 1k % on qqq puts and the rest was Nvidia.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,415
- 27,028
Not if you use history as a guide. Outside of your exogenous shocks (Tech Bubble, GFC, Great Depression, etc), the market finishes up during election years.
The market also rallies during a cutting cycle
"Looking at soft landings even more broadly, the S&P 500 typically rallies by roughly 15% on average in the 12 months after the first cut (going back to 1965)"
2023 in Review: Rates, Rallies and Reflections | J.P. Morgan
The Fed finishes 2023 with a bang, plus 40 notable events that helped shape markets this year.www.jpmorgan.com
I really don't think 10% is unreasonable.
Average election year is ~11%
Im looking at the inversion of the yield curve plus a slowly upward trending unemployment rate/claims.
If this soft landing is actually achieved, Powell gonna go down as an all time great
Crazy how the theme going into 2023 was recession and fear, and it was an above average year for gains. Now no one thinks there will be a recession, and watch it happen.
antidope
Supporter
- Jan 2, 2012
- 63,607
- 68,265
I think they got it. The market is too efficient now, we've figured out most of it as a society:
Its why I just buy VOO now. Legit cannot go wrong. Few will beat it over the long term, alpha in the public markets is effectively dead IMO. More luck for most.
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
What stocks you're looking into for 2024?
Mine is Nikola: NKLA. Looking to accumulate at its current levels starting when market opens.
Though there's some headwinds and a lot of concerns with the company overall, I cannot get over the fact that they are the first movers of clean energy trucking along side hydrogen fueling and network. This is a triple combo with functioning product compared to the gravity truck they rolled a years ago with the former founder.
I personally got the witness the Tre Bev in the wild and was blown away.
If they can get management/ company in the right direction.. they can be a behemoth of a company. Atleast a 100x if everything pans out along side the adoption of hydrogen fueling.
Basically what Tesla has done with batteries and charging network.. Nikola is doing with Hydrogen and their hydrogen network.
The risk reward is high however. Bankruptcy or to the moon.
Mine is Nikola: NKLA. Looking to accumulate at its current levels starting when market opens.
Though there's some headwinds and a lot of concerns with the company overall, I cannot get over the fact that they are the first movers of clean energy trucking along side hydrogen fueling and network. This is a triple combo with functioning product compared to the gravity truck they rolled a years ago with the former founder.
I personally got the witness the Tre Bev in the wild and was blown away.
If they can get management/ company in the right direction.. they can be a behemoth of a company. Atleast a 100x if everything pans out along side the adoption of hydrogen fueling.
Basically what Tesla has done with batteries and charging network.. Nikola is doing with Hydrogen and their hydrogen network.
The risk reward is high however. Bankruptcy or to the moon.
- Dec 23, 2009
- 30,360
- 21,936
We got beef now.
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
- Mar 29, 2008
- 26,536
- 3,626
I must be the only one who assumes NKLA and bankruptcy go hand in hand
- Mar 26, 2013
- 1,256
- 2,106
Ahhh I see your stance now.. I would tend to agree with this back when Trevor Milton was in charge. However, as of today the company has made significant progress and really made breakthrough with the fuel cell engineering imo. The Fuel cell truck is a real thing with real customers. The Trevor Milton fiasco is behind them IMO.
With my personal seeing this on the HWY near the port of Long Beach, while hauling cargo.. my stance change from there. It was incredible to see.
Only concern I have is their cash on hand and cash burn. Would they be able to stay afloat with their current stock price ? Would they be able to raise capital without further dilution?..
Can they stay market compliant and staying above $1.. those are my concerns.. and not the product or the founder fiasco.
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- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,415
- 27,028
The stock has literally flatlined. No doubt there's gonna be some type of pump, meme or not.
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
- Dec 23, 2009
- 30,360
- 21,936
Nah I have no feelings towards NKLA now. Theyre still vaporware imo but hey, I'm not actively rooting for them to lose anymore.
- Jan 22, 2006
- 1,772
- 516
My dumbass held some PINS through the downturn and hoping it would make a come back (cause I was running with everything for the longrun mindset). At the end of 2023, it was back up in the green and finally decided to dump it. Too many ups and downs and better to end in green even for a miniscule amount.
- Jul 13, 2005
- 35,415
- 27,028
Props to you for holding that trash for as long as you did
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
- Jan 22, 2006
- 1,772
- 516
GME for sure!
- Oct 14, 2008
- 13,939
- 13,399
I watched the movie on the plane Monday. Wasn’t horrible.
- Mar 22, 2003
- 28,990
- 17,662
