OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

I’m in an investment class now and learning about the different ratios and doing comparative analysis, forecasting, the efficient frontier, hedging with international securities, and all that.

Truth is, DCA’ing into VOO with dividend reinvesting activated is probably the best bet for 99% of us retail investors that aren’t full-time financial analysts. You have roughly a 20% chance of beating the market any given year with far less a chance of beating it again the following year. You have to ask if spending hours upon hours doing the comparative analysis and forecasting is worth a potential .01% gain over the market.

If you want to feel like you are “doing something” you can add a couple REITs, gold, well-known defensive/low beta stocks (Walmart, Home Depot, etc.), maybe an international market ETF with returns exceeding US inflation, and maybe 1-2 low cap growth stocks you’ve done your DD on. Then play with the allocations to make an efficient portfolio. Keeping in mind this approach doesn’t really consider the current economic climate which would impact your allocations over time based on your personal outlook.

Only other piece of advice I can offer is most actively managed portfolios consist of no more than 30-40 stocks. The marginal benefit of adding beyond that is essentially 0. Added risk with virtually no expected reward.
 
I bought like 3 0dte puts as lotto this morning on SPY at a 416 strike. Sold them right at 3pm because we had a pep rally and I couldn't watch my phone from inside the gym was happy with my dinner and drink money for the weekend.

I come back to an absolute slaughter. Jesus Christ. I could've paid my rent and car note for the month if I held.
 
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“The Last Tycoons” by William Cohan taught me m&a business trails bull runs and restructuring trails bear runs

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And asset management can stay fairly steady
 
Lmao market manipulation at its finest. The difference between 50 and the rumored 75 points shouldnt cause this fake pump.
 
Not “market manipulation”

Our economy is well positioned for market risk ahead (rates, war). Keeping 330m happy ain’t easy
 
Lmao market manipulation at its finest. The difference between 50 and the rumored 75 points shouldnt cause this fake pump.
Not fake imo. Relief rally that JPow isn't going hard in the printer paint on rates. If he came out with a surprise at 75 bp it would be a bloodbath for a couple more days. Instead, we get what was expected and signaling that he doesn't see a need to increase rates beyond what they've already forecasted.

So it's like people buying because there's no news.
 
So it's like people buying because there's no news.
Right, I don’t really get that but whatever. 50 was priced in I was told. Yea there was fud for potential 75. We got 50. So market rips when we got essentially no news, we got what was expected. Maybe it ripped for no legitimate reason so it’ll give the gains right back lol. Nothing surprises me at this point.
 
Right, I don’t really get that but whatever. 50 was priced in I was told. Yea there was fud for potential 75. We got 50. So market rips when we got essentially no news, we got what was expected. Maybe it ripped for no legitimate reason so it’ll give the gains right back lol. Nothing surprises me at this point.
SPY 30m chart at 10am



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Bruh. No news at fomc, people calling a bull market….. very next morning- sike, just kidding. This market is dumb
I was asking yesterday how they even get a trade in at the mid price of a contract when the **** was moving a complete dollar within seconds that price movement yesterday was a casino and for no reason at all
It always happens in these FED meetings
But some dudes don’t take their gains and move on they want to hold overnight for more gains just for it to be taken all back just as quick as they got ‘em


I always say options are good for day trades it’s no telling what happens the next day
 
Well damb. Right in my face. Fickle *** market. Bet we close in the green now, just to **** with everything and everyone.
 
Right, I don’t really get that but whatever. 50 was priced in I was told. Yea there was fud for potential 75. We got 50. So market rips when we got essentially no news, we got what was expected. Maybe it ripped for no legitimate reason so it’ll give the gains right back lol. Nothing surprises me at this point.

Like アミーゴ アミーゴ said, earnings/fundamentals don't matter. Everything is a reaction to what could happen, not what actually does happen. Uncertainty is what drives this whole thing, in both positive and negative directions.
 
I’m in an investment class now and learning about the different ratios and doing comparative analysis, forecasting, the efficient frontier, hedging with international securities, and all that.

Truth is, DCA’ing into VOO with dividend reinvesting activated is probably the best bet for 99% of us retail investors that aren’t full-time financial analysts. You have roughly a 20% chance of beating the market any given year with far less a chance of beating it again the following year. You have to ask if spending hours upon hours doing the comparative analysis and forecasting is worth a potential .01% gain over the market.

If you want to feel like you are “doing something” you can add a couple REITs, gold, well-known defensive/low beta stocks (Walmart, Home Depot, etc.), maybe an international market ETF with returns exceeding US inflation, and maybe 1-2 low cap growth stocks you’ve done your DD on. Then play with the allocations to make an efficient portfolio. Keeping in mind this approach doesn’t really consider the current economic climate which would impact your allocations over time based on your personal outlook.

Only other piece of advice I can offer is most actively managed portfolios consist of no more than 30-40 stocks. The marginal benefit of adding beyond that is essentially 0. Added risk with virtually no expected reward.
What he said..all of it.
 
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