OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[antidope]

A lot of Warren Buffet "stock splits attract bad money" rhetoric being spoken. A momentum factor exists and splits help that.

 

[coolcool]

Some ppl want a personal pan pizza, not a slice

 

[cs02132]

During the whole GME craze my friend was looking for random companies to buy options on, he settled on Kroger. Random as hell, we don’t even have Krogers where we live..He did like a 2 week option but nothing happened, then it jumped like $5 the week after it expired . I’ve kept it on my watch list since then, hilarious to see that it’s almost doubled since then and it’s always the only green in a sea of red recently

 

[noskey]

**** Kroger.

 

[206to813]

I started trading options in January… overall down a little bit but have learned a lot from when I started til now. Hopefully can be green overall by next week and go from there. Had my first $1K net week this week.

 

[1c3m4m]

I started trading options in January… overall down a little bit but have learned a lot from when I started til now. Hopefully can be green overall by next week and go from there. Had my first $1K net week this week.

Yea once u have a solid gameplan it can be very lucrative

 

[アミーゴ]

It will boost the price in a gimmick-ish manner, yes. During certain phases, markets are disconnected from reality. During those phases, gimmicks work. If someone can only afford 1/20th of an Amazon share, they already have platforms where they can buy fractional shares without needing shares to split.



That isn't my point. I'll go back to the golden pizza example.

If I have a golden pizza worth $1 million and I split it into 10,000 pieces, each slice is worth $100.

If you have a golden pizza worth $1 million and split it into 1,000,000 pieces, each slice is worth $1.

In either of these scenarios, the sum of the parts is still $1,000,000.

You could split that $1,000,000 pizza into as many pieces as you want and, everything else equal, the sum of the parts will still be $1,000,000.



Let's say hypothetically there's a one million dollar bill.
You can go to the bank and ask them to break it down into smaller bills for you.
You can ask for all thousands.
You can ask for all hundreds.
You can ask for all fifties.
You can ask for all twenties.
You can ask for all tens.
You can ask for all fives.
You can ask for all ones.

No matter what you ask for, you still have a million dollars.

That's reality. But when there's a disconnect from reality and there's ignorant people in the market who will pay $1.25 for a dollar bill, then you might as well break that million dollar bill into all ones and see how many of those one dollar bills you can sell to suckers for $1.25. It's way easier to find a million fools who will pay $1.25 for a dollar bill than it is to find one fool who will pay $1,250,000 for a million dollar bill. That's pretty much what Amazon is doing.


It's like I was trying to tell dude about the Chipotle thing. The value of a company is based on how much money that company makes. The value of a company has nothing to do with how many shares the company is split into.

The value of Amazon goes up if they increase their profits. They can do this by selling more products, increasing their margins, acquiring other companies, things like that.

The value of Amazon doesn't go up just because they went to the bank with all of their twenty dollar bills and asked the teller to break those twenties into all one dollar bills.

TLDR my man - end of the day retail investor will drive the volume

 

[frankmatthews]

Seems like credit markets could be the next negative headline on the horizon smh. This is just a confluence of bad events happening right now.

 

[1c3m4m]

Seems like credit markets could be the next negative headline on the horizon smh. This is just a confluence of bad events happening right now.

What makes u say that

 

[frankmatthews]

What makes u say that

Financials exposed to russian assets that cant be marked to market yet. Credit spreads widening. Recent bond market volatility. Heading into recession and market veterans been calling credit the next bubble to pop for the past couple years.

 

[sole searchin]

Financials exposed to russian assets that cant be marked to market yet. Credit spreads widening. Recent bond market volatility. Heading into recession and market veterans been calling credit the next bubble to pop for the past couple years.

They’ve been calling for this recession, housing market crash, etc for years also.

Who knows.

 

[1c3m4m]

Financials exposed to russian assets that cant be marked to market yet. Credit spreads widening. Recent bond market volatility. Heading into recession and market veterans been calling credit the next bubble to pop for the past couple years.

So u saying i should go long on credit tickers

 

[frankmatthews]

They’ve been calling for this recession, housing market crash, etc for years also.

Who knows.

This is true, just seems to be a lot of circumstances lining up right now. What I will say is the Fed is really adept at kicking the can down the road, so it could be soon or never lol.

So u saying i should go long on credit tickers

Whats a credit ticker? I wasnt giving investment advice.

 

[Chopper]

SHOP at a <25 PE is appealing. Going to increase my position next week.

 

[1c3m4m]

This is true, just seems to be a lot of circumstances lining up right now. What I will say is the Fed is really adept at kicking the can down the road, so it could be soon or never lol.



Whats a credit ticker? I wasnt giving investment advice.

Visa mastercard amex

 

[frankmatthews]

Visa mastercard amex

Those are payment processors, they do not lend money.

I was refering to bonds, not consumer credit.

 

[wallyhopp]

Not all stocks rise after a split

If you had one share for example and really really like the company but want to finally take some profit, it’s now possible to do so

You can now sell 10 of your 20 shares, finally take your gains, and still be 50% invested for the future. There may be a small sell off.
But
It’s also easier to see that 20 people can afford $150 vs. 1 affording $2900

 

[pauliepeppas]

Cash secured puts for the past few months has been a lifesaver

 

[1c3m4m]

Those are payment processors, they do not lend money.

I was refering to bonds, not consumer credit.

O ok my bad

 

[gvhp2223]

They’ve been calling for this recession, housing market crash, etc for years also.

Who knows.

The reason these things haven't happened is because the Fed postpones it by implementing retarted monetary policy. Housing and stocks have been overvalued for at least five years.

Interest rates were lowered around 2009 to get the economy out of recession. The plan was to temporary lower rates to get out of that recession and then raise them back up. Rates should have slowly gone up from there, but they've went further down because of manipulation. All that does is create a bigger bubble.

So from a fundamental standpoint, those people who have predicted a crash in housing or a recession aren't wrong. The fundamentals point to obvious flaws in the economy. People can't predict what kind of new ******** the Fed will come up with to postpone the inevitable.

 

[biggie62]

Every idiot can predict saying a recession is going to happen. Expansion follows by recession that’s nothing new and will occur in perpetuity.

Generally speaking they should have allowed the recession to occur late 2018 early 2019 by increasingly increasing interest rates but Powell was just freshly appointed by trump. It would have been short and sweet and such. It would have resulted in a soft crash eventually.

I mean profits will continue increase for most companies over the next few months to over a year. Banks are still making loans and the bond market is hot. As long as that doesn’t stop I don’t see a recession hitting quickly besides an expansion of the Ukraine conflict at the moment.

Now the growth unprofitable companies will take some sort of hit but that happens all the time. Most of these companies will go belly up just like the dot com boom. Either you’re for real and can survive or you are doing some fad that will eventually crash. This reset is part of normal cycles. Problem is too many small time new investors thought they could make money off anything. Same thing that occurred in 2000. I lived through it and saw it as an early teenager.

 

[1c3m4m]

So bond etf’s the move, in your opinion of course

frankmatthews

 

[frankmatthews]

I mean profits will continue increase for most companies over the next few months to over a year. Banks are still making loans and the bond market is hot. As long as that doesn’t stop I don’t see a recession hitting quickly besides an expansion of the Ukraine conflict at the moment.

I'd like to know what you're looking at to reach these conclusions. 2022 GDP is continually being revised lower. Debt to GDP is at the highest levels ever. 2022 S&P EPS estimates are continually being revised lower. Consumer demand is dwindling, household savings have evaporated. Forward guidance will likely not be pretty. And no benefit of stimulus payments which boosted the comps from last year. Price inflation is at 8% and thats not even factoring in the recent spikes in gas and commodity prices which are just now begining to hit store shelves. Fed raising rates + inflation = recession. Fed raising rates will slow lending, corporate borrowing has been massive over the past year. And the bond market is beginning to show signs of cracking. Most economists see global economies contracting, not expanding, in 2022. The only thing stopping a full on recession will be a Fed pivot, which actually might happen. Historically, wars have been good for spurring growth, which actually might happen too. But in the current environment I dont see how when the supply side is more of an issue than demand. However, either of those outcomes will not be good for stocks in the short term.

 

[frankmatthews]

So bond etf’s the move, in your opinion of course

frankmatthews

When interest rates rise, bond portfolios decrease in value. However, as I noted in my previous post, imo, it is uncertain whether the fed will be able to raise rates at the rate everyone is expecting them to. Corporate bonds are a massive bubble, treasuries will probably only allow you to lose less, not make gains. But like I said, things are very uncertain. Im not gonna make predictions or give investment advice. If you dont understand how all the various economic factors will affect any investment you want to make I would suggesting sitting it out and educating yourself. All the new retail investors are inevitably gonna get hurt the worst in this type of environment.

 

[1c3m4m]

ok