OFFICIAL STOCK MARKET AND ECONOMY THREAD VOL. A NEW CHAPTER

[Based Jesus]

They charge $11 for beans, rice and a few crumbs of chicken, and people keep coming back.

You barely get rice too, Chipotle can kiss my ***

 

[frankmatthews]

Fully expecting an oversold bounce in the markets in the near future. Then its back to regularly scheduled programing, only with inflation worse due to conflict/sanctions. Nasdaq seems to be expecting less and/or delayed rate hikes due to the conflict as well. Very interesting times.

 

[WASHED KING]

SPY trading like a penny stock.

 

[southernhospita]

SPY trading like a penny stock.

Which is one of the reasons I don’t even bother trading options on it
I’m all for a dip being bought but you mean to tell me the US market made it recover off not one word of positive news at all

That also why I don’t hold any option positions overnight what so ever
I catch a L I take it and come back tomorrow
A lot of this price action makes no sense what so ever

 

[WASHED KING]

Which is one of the reasons I don’t even bother trading options on it
I’m all for a dip being bought but you mean to tell me the US market made it recover off not one word of positive news at all

That also why I don’t hold any option positions overnight what so ever
I catch a L I take it and come back tomorrow
A lot of this price action makes no sense what so ever

I bought 2 420 calls for tomorrow at open. Sold when they doubled. Would've been up way more but this market has me too shook to hold anything.

410 in premarket to 427?

This is nuts.

 

[usabasketball08]

What a wild day. Back in the green

 

[southernhospita]

I bought 2 420 calls for tomorrow at open. Sold when they doubled. Would've been up way more but this market has me too shook to hold anything.

410 in premarket to 427?

This is nuts.

Yeah I knew some dip buying was going to happen but come on now like wtf
No one can convince me retail made that happen

 

[you go boy]

was hoping for some good news after seeing y'all post today... but nope my mutual fund on my 401k down 4k smh

 

[tomdiginson]

 

[Betonblck]

Fully expecting an oversold bounce in the markets in the near future. Then its back to regularly scheduled programing, only with inflation worse due to conflict/sanctions. Nasdaq seems to be expecting less and/or delayed rate hikes due to the conflict as well. Very interesting times.

Once the market realizes that aggressive rate hikes are not happening and inflation was transitory, we will be off to the races.

 

[frankmatthews]

Once the market realizes that aggressive rate hikes are not happening and inflation was transitory, we will be off to the races.

They've been saying transitory for a year now lol. Im not a supply chain expert by any means but from what I can gather there is no quick fix for those issues. But I do agree that inflation, to some degree, is a supply issue and is temporary.

I also agree that aggressive rate hikes have been overstated on purpose, sort of an over promise, under deliver scenario.

But I think earnings comps YoY are gonna be tough in the upcoming quarters. And rate hikes and their results are still an uncertainty. It does feel like we're close to a bottom but I think the market leaders out of this decline arent gonna be the same names everyone loved the past couple years. Should be interesting to say the least.

 

[antidope]

Geopolitical events rarely have prolonged effects on the market and Russia isn't a big enough economy globally did this to truly make waves. Now if this emboldens China to invade Taiwan... We all going broke.

 

[gvhp2223]

the man would spend hours in here helping people and dm’ing them if they needed it. Pretty foul honestly.

Sounds like you’re over invested and mad.

Johnny a good dude, def helped a lot of people.

Yea sounds like the dude over-invested in his picks. If he did, when he mentioned those picks they were winners and you could have taken profits if that's the case. Sure they may have tanked now but no one can control an investor's own greed.

Not sure where you guys are getting this info from but I never once listened to him nor bought any stock because he said so. I simply recognized that he didn't know what he was talking about but talked like he did know what he was talking about.

 

[gvhp2223]

Imagine blaming your financial issues on a random person that posts for FREE in a stock thread on a sneaker message board

Cats are weird man. The guy tossed out some free stock picks to look into that people bought into and it made them money, but because the market is down globally and some may have held these companies too long, they are looking for someone to blame. I remember johnnyredstorm repeatedly telling people that these gains we're seeing isn't normal and to prepare in case for the inverse to happen. Now people are upset and want to blame him . Damned if you do, damned if you dont.

Where are y'all getting this info from that I'm blaming him for anything? You guys were the ones listening to him not me. There's not a single thing I read from him that made me say "I'm going to listen to this guy, he knows what he's talkiing about." Check my posts in this thread, I kept pointing out that the market is delusional and that stock valuations aren't legitimate. If that was my stance, why would I listen to him, let alone buy anything he recommended. I haven't been in this thread long but nothing he said came across as intelligent and once he said that the 10-year Treasury yield "doesn't matter" then I knew that he was halfway clueless.

This thread makes it seem like JRS was responsible for fed tapering lol

Anybody who knows a damn thing about the U.S. economy knows that tapering was coming.

Anybody know knows a damn thing about the U.S. economy knows that interest rates were going to have to increase.

99% of you won't even understand what this means: printing stupid amounts of money and then buying your own treasury bonds to artificially push down treasury yields is one of the most fraudulent things in history.

 

[tomdiginson]

Where are y'all getting this info from that I'm blaming him for anything? You guys were the ones listening to him not me. There's not a single thing I read from him that made me say "I'm going to listen to this guy, he knows what he's talkiing about." Check my posts in this thread, I kept pointing out that the market is delusional and that stock valuations aren't legitimate. If that was my stance, why would I listen to him, let alone buy anything he recommended. I haven't been in this thread long but nothing he said came across as intelligent and once he said that the 10-year Treasury yield "doesn't matter" then I knew that he was halfway clueless.



Anybody who knows a damn thing about the U.S. economy knows that tapering was coming.

Anybody know knows a damn thing about the U.S. economy knows that interest rates were going to have to increase.

99% of you won't even understand what this means: printing stupid amounts of money and then buying your own treasury bonds to artificially push down treasury yields is one of the most fraudulent things in history.

If it didn't affect you, then why are you in here complaining? That makes these rants even worse.

 

[superantigen]

[. . .]nothing he said came across as intelligent [. . .]

Anybody who knows a damn thing about the U.S. economy[. . .]

99% of you won't even understand what this means [. . .]

Well it's very kind of you to bless us plebeian's with your intelligence since, obviously, we common folk have no idea what's going on.

We're all here because of a shared interest in the market. I think we can engage in this interest without being condescending to each other though.


...

 

[gvhp2223]

And why is chipotle's stock price so high. Never made sense to me. It's extremely overvalued. The food is nothing to rave about.

What is high about the stock price? The fact that it's $1400 dollars for one share?

 

[ballinsam23]

gvhp2223 are you gonna share your insights on the market and how you navigate or pick stocks? Or are you just gonna critique every comment here?

 

[gvhp2223]

It don't really matter what I say if dudes are gonna say "price to earnings is a bad valuation metric."

And here's the reason i brought up the chipotle comment:

There's people out there, a lot of them, who think that all companies are split into an equal amount of shares.

So when dude says Chipotle's stock price is high, he most likely thinks that the stock price is high because it's $1400 per share. It doesn't matter how much the price of a share is, that is dependent on how many outstanding shares there are. One company's price per share could be $3 and another company's price per share could be $1400 but that doesn't mean anything, it doesn't mean that the $1400 share is more overvalued than the $3 share.

Say you and I both have a golden pizza worth $1million.

I split my pizza into 10 slices and each slice goes for $100,000.

You split your pizza in 1 million slices and each slice goes for $1.

That doesn't mean your pizza is cheaper than mine.

That doesn't mean my pizza is overvalued.

There's people that literally assume that every company is split up into an equal amount of shares and that **** is sad and laughable.

You can't look at a company's price per share to determine that the company is overvalued. You have to look at the company's valuation.

 

[アミーゴ]

What is high about the stock price? The fact that it's $1400 dollars for one share?

I mean this is what I said lol

 

[frankmatthews]

It don't really matter what I say if dudes are gonna say "price to earnings is a bad valuation metric."

And here's the reason i brought up the chipotle comment:

There's people out there, a lot of them, who think that all companies are split into an equal amount of shares.

So when dude says Chipotle's stock price is high, he most likely thinks that the stock price is high because it's $1400 per share. It doesn't matter how much the price of a share is, that is dependent on how many outstanding shares there are. One company's price per share could be $3 and another company's price per share could be $1400 but that doesn't mean anything, it doesn't mean that the $1400 share is more overvalued than the $3 share.

Say you and I both have a golden pizza worth $1million.

I split my pizza into 10 slices and each slice goes for $100,000.

You split your pizza in 1 million slices and each slice goes for $1.

That doesn't mean your pizza is cheaper than mine.

That doesn't mean my pizza is overvalued.

There's people that literally assume that every company is split up into an equal amount of shares and that **** is sad and laughable.

You can't look at a company's price per share to determine that the company is overvalued. You have to look at the company's valuation.

Tbh its evident from the comments in here that the majority in this thread do not have a clue what they are doing or how markets work. I dont say this to be mean or condescending but because I (and all investors/traders really) have been there and I know its very easy to get hurt throwing money in before you have a comprehensive understanding of how all this works. The sooner you admit and realize you dont know what you're doing the better off you'll be. But people make a little money and think they got it figured out, like I said I've been there.

The way professionals invest is complex beyond your wildest imaginations. Like, you really have no idea how in depth it gets. Very complex mathmatical models, valuation metrics, channel checks, intricate knowledge of products/companies/sectors. These institutions and funds have teams of professional analysts with years of experience working 80 hours a week figuring all this stuff out. And even they are wrong a decent amount of the time. As a retail investor its impossible for you to have that level of competency especially if you have a day job. But thats basically who you're competing against. You're not gonna beat them to a good investment, you're not gonna have a better understanding of a companies growth prospectives or valuation. If they move on from a particular company or investment you're not gonna know when or why, you're just gonna be left bag holding, thats the role of the majority of retail investors.

What little I may know is way too much to explain in here, it took years and years of experience for me to develop the rudimentary understanding I have, and thats just the tip of the iceberg. It takes a lot of time and effort to learn these things. This is not a hobby, this is not something you put your hard earned money into on a hunch or an arbitrary determination of what companies you think are good or successful. You will loose, without a doubt, approaching investing with a lackadaisical attitude. Its very hard work to be successful investing in stocks. Barring that, you're basically just gambling.

I say all that to say, if you want to be serious about investing and creating your own portfolio of individual stocks you have to invest a lot of time and effort learning and researching to have half a chance. It is absolutely mandatory for you to develop a strategy that is repeatable. You cant just go picking companies willy nilly based on your own feeling or intuition or some extremely basic level of fundamental analysis. You will loose, I promise you. If you are unable or unwilling to do that, stick with index/mutual funds. Its sad because I know the outcome for a lot of folks in here but its not something I can really help you with or teach you. Its not something you can sit down and learn in a few days, weeks or months. It took me getting a degree in corporate finance to realize just how much I didnt know.

I really do wish you all the best and I wanna see all of you win I just know its very unlikely given the way a lot of you are approaching this. Most will probably disregard all this and end up learning the hard way, which is what I did, but maybe a few self aware folks will humble themselves and reevaluate their approach.

 

[gvhp2223]

I mean this is what I said lol

That's exactly what I assumed.

If Chipotle multiplied their outstanding share count by 28 and the new price per share becomes $50, then you would feel like it's a more reasonable price, huh?

 

[gvhp2223]

What little I may know is way too much to explain in here, it took years and years of experience for me to develop the rudimentary understanding I have, and thats just the tip of the iceberg. It takes a lot of time and effort to learn these things. This is not a hobby, this is not something you put your hard earned money into on a hunch or an arbitrary determination of what companies you think are good or successful. You will loose, without a doubt, approaching investing with a lackadaisical attitude. Its very hard work to be successful investing in stocks. Barring that, you're basically just gambling.

That's exactly how I feel.

You have to have foundational knowledge about interest rates. Most people on here have no idea how significant interest rates are. They'll say that the difference between a 0 % fed funds rate and 3% fed funds rate "is only 3 percent." These are the same type of people who will defend koBrick bryant's 40% shooting percentage in big games and say "the difference between 40% shooting and 50% shooting is only 10%."

Most people don't understand percentages to begin with.

If you don't understand percentages, you're not going to understand interest rates.

If you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to understand inflation.

If you don't understand inflation, you're not going to understand real interest rates.

If you don't understand real interest rates, you're not going to understand how dangerous the current economic situation is.


I can't teach you guys all of that stuff. It takes weeks or months to read about each aspect. It takes months or years to grasp each concept because you have to wait for it to unfold in real life to actually understand it. It's a lot easier for me to say "be careful listening to this guy, he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Right now, mortgage rates are 4%. If the Fed has the balls to fight inflation and they raise the fed funds rate to 3% like they need to, mortgages will be 6-7%. Watch what happens to real estate if that happens. A million dollar property will drop to 700k.

 

[WASHED KING]

That's exactly how I feel.

You have to have foundational knowledge about interest rates. Most people on here have no idea how significant interest rates are. They'll say that the difference between a 0 % fed funds rate and 3% fed funds rate "is only 3 percent." These are the same type of people who will defend koBrick bryant's 40% shooting percentage in big games and say "the difference between 40% shooting and 50% shooting is only 10%."

Most people don't understand percentages to begin with.

If you don't understand percentages, you're not going to understand interest rates.

If you don't understand interest rates, you're not going to understand inflation.

If you don't understand inflation, you're not going to understand real interest rates.

If you don't understand real interest rates, you're not going to understand how dangerous the current economic situation is.


I can't teach you guys all of that stuff. It takes weeks or months to read about each aspect. It takes months or years to grasp each concept because you have to wait for it to unfold in real life to actually understand it. It's a lot easier for me to say "be careful listening to this guy, he doesn't know what he's talking about."

Right now, mortgage rates are 4%. If the Fed has the balls to fight inflation and they raise the fed funds rate to 3% like they need to, mortgages will be 6-7%. Watch what happens to real estate if that happens. A million dollar property will drop to 700k.

I hope it does drop. The housing market is full of greed and pigs.

Time to watch them get slaughtered

 

[antidope]

Tbh its evident from the comments in here that the majority in this thread do not have a clue what they are doing or how markets work. I dont say this to be mean or condescending but because I (and all investors/traders really) have been there and I know its very easy to get hurt throwing money in before you have a comprehensive understanding of how all this works. The sooner you admit and realize you dont know what you're doing the better off you'll be. But people make a little money and think they got it figured out, like I said I've been there.

The way professionals invest is complex beyond your wildest imaginations. Like, you really have no idea how in depth it gets. Very complex mathmatical models, valuation metrics, channel checks, intricate knowledge of products/companies/sectors. These institutions and funds have teams of professional analysts with years of experience working 80 hours a week figuring all this stuff out. And even they are wrong a decent amount of the time. As a retail investor its impossible for you to have that level of competency especially if you have a day job. But thats basically who you're competing against. You're not gonna beat them to a good investment, you're not gonna have a better understanding of a companies growth prospectives or valuation. If they move on from a particular company or investment you're not gonna know when or why, you're just gonna be left bag holding, thats the role of the majority of retail investors.

What little I may know is way too much to explain in here, it took years and years of experience for me to develop the rudimentary understanding I have, and thats just the tip of the iceberg. It takes a lot of time and effort to learn these things. This is not a hobby, this is not something you put your hard earned money into on a hunch or an arbitrary determination of what companies you think are good or successful. You will loose, without a doubt, approaching investing with a lackadaisical attitude. Its very hard work to be successful investing in stocks. Barring that, you're basically just gambling.

I say all that to say, if you want to be serious about investing and creating your own portfolio of individual stocks you have to invest a lot of time and effort learning and researching to have half a chance. It is absolutely mandatory for you to develop a strategy that is repeatable. You cant just go picking companies willy nilly based on your own feeling or intuition or some extremely basic level of fundamental analysis. You will loose, I promise you. If you are unable or unwilling to do that, stick with index/mutual funds. Its sad because I know the outcome for a lot of folks in here but its not something I can really help you with or teach you. Its not something you can sit down and learn in a few days, weeks or months. It took me getting a degree in corporate finance to realize just how much I didnt know.

I really do wish you all the best and I wanna see all of you win I just know its very unlikely given the way a lot of you are approaching this. Most will probably disregard all this and end up learning the hard way, which is what I did, but maybe a few self aware folks will humble themselves and reevaluate their approach.

I have my CFA charter and idk anything about how to truly invest and what I've doing is tantamount to just throwing darts at a board.

Everyone just BUY SPY and call it a day, SPY is undefeated.