***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[ninjahood]

ya wanna go and post polls super earlier? knock urself out..it was sure accurate in determining da Brexit

A month ago you thought the idea of waiting before lending too much credence to polls was laughable

But now that your God-king is getting slaughtered in the polls, it's time to withhold expectations

slaughtered? wouldn't hold ur breath..

You know what's amazing about our NBC/Wall Street Journal poll is that this is among the worst polls Hillary Clinton's ever had, except because it's in comparison to Trump, it looks like a good poll for her. But if you extrapolate, if you take out the head-to-head, there's not a good number in here for her. I'm trying to find it.

that's Chuck Todd from NBC meet da press talking about Hillary's poll internals from da latest NBC/wallstreet journal which just dropped.

and...

The most disliked of all is Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who is viewed unfavorably by a full 60 percent of the electorate, while only 29 percent offer a positive rating of the GOP standard-bearer (-31 rating). Hillary Clinton is not far behind, with 33 percent of voters giving her a favorable rating compared to 55 percent who give her a negative rating (-22).

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...s-popular-nra-planned-parenthood-poll-n598731

if its gonna be bloody and nasty 1989 badboy pistons playoff basketball for da general election, im taking someone who according to da NBC poll, got better trustworthiness & is a agent of change in Washington with a HARDCORE following..

bottomline is Hillary is hated almost as much as Trump, hence why da polls in da NEW polls are dead heat close..im willing to bet when its time to vote, all her negatively will have hoards of da Democratic constituency staying home.

but hey..ya still wanna talk early poll right? lets go

 

[Master Zik]

da response to this will be entertaining, to say the least.

response? blco is gonna throw something up and that will be the new talking point, then he'll continue like this never happened.

Halfway right.

Son just ignored it all like it didn't happen

 

[blco02]

Fivethiryeight gives trump a 20% chance at becoming president.


If I was a Trump fan I would be encouraged by this.



Still a long shot bet but conceivable.

Yea, this is the guy who said Trump had a 2% chance to win the nomination. So he's 10 times more likely to win the general.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

 

[harlemtothebronx]

How 18% of the ppl that support you think you're not qualified?

 

[deleted]

but hey..ya still wanna talk early poll right? lets go

Oh look

He's found an interpretation of the NBC poll that serves to confirm his bias. Suddenly the polls are valid again.

 

[RustyShackleford]

da response to this will be entertaining, to say the least.

response? blco is gonna throw something up and that will be the new talking point, then he'll continue like this never happened.

Halfway right.

Son just ignored it all like it didn't happen

Someone probably reported the post, because it got deleted. So he is just gonna act like it didn't happen.

 

[Master Zik]

What is there to report?

Pointing out hypocrisy is against the ROC now?

Should've quoted the post

 

[deleted]

I don't understand that

 

[RustyShackleford]

It probably got delete because of the insult at the end. Which was OD in hindsight

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Yea, this is the guy who said Trump had a 2% chance to win the nomination. So he's 10 times more likely to win the general.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-six-stages-of-doom/

That 2% thing was a off the cuff subjective guess, nothing to do with his projection model.



actually the model was was pretty accurate in the primaries, his projection model 53 of 58 races correct in the primaries.





You are confusing the guy, with the statistical model.

Nate SIlver isn't predicting anything. his MODEL is forecasting the chances of Trump winning this thing. with the currect data set.



but things can change.

 

[blco02]

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7...ously-wrong-about-donald-trump/#ixzz4D1jfeKVs

 

[whywesteppin]

Majority of scientists don't even have a solid grasp of statistics. I'm not even gonna try to discuss it with random people on NT. Futile!

 

[osh kosh bosh]

7 Times Nate Silver Was Hilariously Wrong About Donald Trump

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/05/04/7...ously-wrong-about-donald-trump/#ixzz4D1jfeKVs

again

nate silver =/= 538 model.

the model had Trump winning all the way.



If anything its his fault for not trusting it more.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Trump fans should be happy.

20% is better shot than I would have given it, just eyeballing the demographics.


and there is an unsually high number of undecided voters in the polls so he has room to grow and catchup.

 

[whywesteppin]

another poll for Dump supporters to ignore: http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/2016-election-poll-hillary-clinton-donald-trump/

interesting that it's Cruz/Kasich/et al Republicans who don't want to support Dump, but Bernie supporters seem willing to vote for Hillary. i remember Dump supporters on here telling us it'd be the other way around.

don't worry, we won't forget.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Sad!

 

[rico x hood]

They just haven't fallen in line yet. Trust me by August he'll have the GOP behind him.

No one wants to be blamed for Shillary being elected.

 

[wubalubadubdub]

Trump fans should be happy.

20% is better shot than I would have given it, just eyeballing the demographics.


and there is an unsually high number of undecided voters in the polls so he has room to grow and catchup.

Lebron came back from a 3 1 deficit against the best regular season team ever stat wise, iceland beat england,
Leicester won the premier league, wales in the semi finals, the brexit...

I'd say 20 percent is a great place to be in 2016

 

[whywesteppin]

and at some point Rubio had 20% chance of winning the Republican primary.

at some point the Patriots had a 20% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

and so on.

"there's a 20% chance" means that if you take 100 events then 20 of them will be won by people with a 20% chance.


that said, Trump is an x-factor because we aren't used to politicians like him. it's completely unpredictable what will happen so there's of course huge uncertainty in the predictions themselves.

 

[rico x hood]

^^^ ding ding ding. That's why the only people I'll listen to in regards to Trump are the ones who predicted he'd get the nomination from early on. And the only person I know that did was David Plouffe.

 

[whywesteppin]

We could see Trump losing in the biggest landslide in US election history. Or we could see him pull it out. Both possibilities are on the table in my mind.

 

[Belgium]

Trump is a wildcard. I wouldn't count him out yet. A lot can change in a few months.

 

[Nike Jordan]

Trump is a wildcard. I wouldn't count him out yet. A lot can change in a few months.

He's definitely wild alright.

 

[whywesteppin]

lol

 

[rico x hood]