***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[harlemtothebronx]

 

 

 

 

But she's been a politician how long? Has no real history of good and is covered in scandal. Sounds like she's a great character lol

I still don't get how this reasoning brings someone to Donald Trump.

Umm...Establishment resentment?


Rulling class overthrow?


Outsider appeal?


Pick 1.

This is a guy who brags about being in the pocket of and rubbing shoulders with politicians. How exactly is Trump an outsider? He's not part of the ruling class?

He's NOT an elected official b...its not that hard to understand.

I understand that. It's common sense. You don't seem to look at these things beyond the surface.

But by definition, he has been an 'insider' in politics for as long as I can remember. Does he not brag about playing a part in the political process for years by putting money in politicians pockets? Being invited to Hillary's wedding.

But he's the anti-establishment candidate that's going to flip things, when he's been actively feeding the beast for decades.

 

[harlemtothebronx]

 

[RustyShackleford]

 

 

But she's been a politician how long? Has no real history of good and is covered in scandal. Sounds like she's a great character lol

I still don't get how this reasoning brings someone to Donald Trump.

Umm...Establishment resentment?


Rulling class overthrow?


Outsider appeal?


Pick 1.

This is a guy who brags about being in the pocket of and rubbing shoulders with politicians. How exactly is Trump an outsider? He's not part of the ruling class?

He's NOT an elected official b...its not that hard to understand.

He has been giving tons of money to elected officials for decades though. He has been part of the establishment on the donor side.

It is not hard to understand

 

[osh kosh bosh]

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?


90-80?
70-60?
60-50?
50-40?
40-30?


I think sub 5%.

 

[harlemtothebronx]

The pomp this dude has the nerve to speak with sometimes.

 

[whywesteppin]

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?


90-80?
70-60?
60-50?
50-40?
40-30?


I think sub 5%.

I'm wary of making any predictions given how no one was able to predict the course of the Republican primary. We have to see how the initial debates play out, but I agree for now that the chances are low.

ninja and blco reaction to this:

 

[rillo561]

Can't underestimate this country

I'll hold off on the predictions.

 

[harlemtothebronx]

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?


90-80?
70-60?
60-50?
50-40?
40-30?


I think sub 5%.

I'd give him a solid 35%.

He has momentum and Hillary is draped in scandal...but I don't think he gets enough people to come out and vote for him.

There was a Trump sign in my neighborhood for a few months. Just noticed it's been removed. I really want to know why. Dude is on fire in Trump supporters eyes.

 

[cashbanks]

A billionaire reality show star who's lined politicians pockets for years is going to "overthrow the ruling class" .......

 

[sundoobie]

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?


90-80?
70-60?
60-50?
50-40?
40-30?


I think sub 5%.

You do realize the election isn't based off a popularity contest. The presidency will be determined by those key battleground states (Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida) so it might come down to a few thousand votes just like in 2000 with Bush winning Florida.

 

[gry60]

Would you happen to have any links?

Just google a 1 bedroom at trump Chicago.

I knew it was you, CL-1B

Buildings don't vote. Show us where you saw Trump ahead in the polls.

 

[RustyShackleford]

\

A billionaire reality show star who's lined politicians pockets for years is going to "overthrow the ruling class" .......

And his plan to do this is by giving himself, his businesses, and other very rich people large tax breaks.

Yep, Trump's in this to fight for the little guy

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?


90-80?
70-60?
60-50?
50-40?
40-30?


I think sub 5%.

You do realize the election isn't based off a popularity contest. The presidency will be determined by those key battleground states (Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida) so it might come down to a few thousand votes just like in 2000 with Bush winning Florida.

Everyone know that, including Osh, because he has been talking about stuff like that for a while

He probably puts Trump that low because he looked at the state polls for battleground states.

 

[SneakerProSr.]

 

 

But she's been a politician how long? Has no real history of good and is covered in scandal. Sounds like she's a great character lol

I still don't get how this reasoning brings someone to Donald Trump.

Umm...Establishment resentment?


Rulling class overthrow?


Outsider appeal?


Pick 1.

This is a guy who brags about being in the pocket of and rubbing shoulders with politicians. How exactly is Trump an outsider? He's not part of the ruling class?

He's NOT an elected official b...its not that hard to understand.

Exactly he's trying to become his own plug.

 

[gry60]

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?



90-80?

70-60?

60-50?

50-40?

40-30?



I think sub 5%.

I'd give him a solid 35%.

He has momentum and Hillary is draped in scandal...but I don't think he gets enough people to come out and vote for him.

There was a Trump sign in my neighborhood for a few months. Just noticed it's been removed. I really want to know why. Dude is on fire in Trump supporters eyes.

In my area, 2-3 more have popped up.

Interestingly, the neighbor of the owner of the oldest Trump sign put his house on sale about a month ago. I wonder why...

 

[dathbgboy]

Regardless of scandal, when it gets down to Trump v. Clinton, it's going to be a real bout between the lesser of two evils. Against Bernie, Hillary is definitely unappealing, but when she's up against Donald, she'll be lookin real good to a lot of voters.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

You do realize the election isn't based off a popularity contest. The presidency will be determined by those key battleground states (Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Florida) so it might come down to a few thousand votes just like in 2000 with Bush winning Florida.

No I didn't realize that.

Did you realize that:

Ohio: 15% black

Florida: 18% Latino 13% Black.

Virginia: 19% black.

Colorado: 14% Latino.

Nevada 20% Latino.


Electorate: 55% Women.


What coalition can Trump build that can win him the presidency if he gets trounced in these demographic groups? Simple math tells me it's a high likelihood of a Hillary blowout.

 

[sundoobie]

You make it sound like all those demographics are voting though or even care to vote in this election. This isn't 2008 with Obama whom ignited voters with a massive turnout, this is Hillary Clinton, whom is very unpopular and has a ton of political baggage. Then once Trump starts getting that SuperPAC money for attack ads? It will be closer I think than that sub 5% chance you give him.

 

[rillo561]

Once he gets those superpac funds, is he still considered an outsider?

 

[rexanglorum]

Because of Demographics and the Electoral College, Democrats have a structural advantage in a Presidential election. However, Trump brings in a lot of wild cards, variables that no other GOP candidate brings. He has bigger downsides but also a bigger upside.

Bernie supporters stay home, Trump reconciles with women (white women at least), Trump makes some surprise attacks from Hillary's left, Black turnout is low, Trump does well with non Mexican Latinos, he has record high turnout and a share of the white vote, he puts Great Lakes States into play, a recession happens later this year (the Fed seems hell bent on that), a terrorist attack happens and his Muslim ban looks appealing. All sorts of things can happen and Trump wins the General.

 

[harlemtothebronx]

Once he gets those superpac funds, is he still considered an outsider?

Yes, duh.

He's NOT an elected official at that point either. Duh.

 

[harlemtothebronx]

 

 

What percentage chance do you give Trump against Hilary?



90-80?

70-60?

60-50?

50-40?

40-30?



I think sub 5%.

I'd give him a solid 35%.

He has momentum and Hillary is draped in scandal...but I don't think he gets enough people to come out and vote for him.

There was a Trump sign in my neighborhood for a few months. Just noticed it's been removed. I really want to know why. Dude is on fire in Trump supporters eyes.

In my area, 2-3 more have popped up.

Interestingly, the neighbor of the owner of the oldest Trump sign put his house on sale about a month ago. I wonder why...

I genuinely felt a bit uncomfortable when I saw that in my neighborhood.

 

[cashbanks]

\
And his plan to do this is by giving himself, his businesses, and other very rich people large tax breaks.

Yep, Trump's in this to fight for the little guy
Everyone know that, including Osh, because he has been talking about stuff like that for a while

He probably puts Trump that low because he looked at the state polls for battleground states.

I'm sure Ninja is at the top of the list for people trump plans to look out for

 

[ninjahood]

Once he gets those superpac funds, is he still considered an outsider?

He doesn't get them..u can't coordinate with super pacs.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

You make it sound like all those demographics are voting though or even care to vote in this election. This isn't 2008 with Obama whom ignited voters with a massive turnout, this is Hillary Clinton, whom is very unpopular and has a ton of political baggage. Then once Trump starts getting that SuperPAC money for attack ads? It will be closer I think than that sub 5% chance you give him.

I'm aware of Hilary's weaknesses as a candidate.

I you take black turn out down to pre obama levels around 55%,and leave the rest of it at 2012 levels dems still win electoral college handily. per 538 data.



Never mind the very real possibility, that the dislike for latino's women and blacks have for Donald Trump could motivate MORE of them to turnout.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Because of Demographics and the Electoral College, Democrats have a structural advantage in a Presidential election. However, Trump brings in a lot of wild cards, variables that no other GOP candidate brings. He has bigger downsides but also a bigger upside.

Bernie supporters stay home, Trump reconciles with women (white women at least), Trump makes some surprise attacks from Hillary's left, Black turnout is low, Trump does well with non Mexican Latinos, he has record high turnout and a share of the white vote, he puts Great Lakes States into play, a recession happens later this year (the Fed seems hell bent on that), a terrorist attack happens and his Muslim ban looks appealing. All sorts of things can happen and Trump wins the General.

i think he would need all those things to happen, all within a concentrated time frame to get the nomination.


1 of those things, 2 of those things happening? maybe but I think he needs all of them.

thats why I put his odds at 5%.