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I’m hoping she can flip NC. They’ve had a lot of transplants there the past 4-8 years. I’m just curious if they can somehow start turning that state more purple and blue.
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I’m hoping she can flip NC. They’ve had a lot of transplants there the past 4-8 years. I’m just curious if they can somehow start turning that state more purple and blue.
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aepps20
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Poll are good data but polling is getting more and more difficult. Whether good or bad we have to focus on GOTV efforts. You can often tell the state of the race based on where candidates are spending their time. I will add that the same poll had Kam +5 pre debate but -5 post debate in Arizona
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This data is more interesting to me because it’s factual.
“The Pennsylvania Secretary of State reported that 2,704,147 mail ballots were cast in the 2020 presidential elections, which was about 39 percent of the total ballots cast statewide.”
I can’t find off hand what the party breakdown was in 2020, but that’s about half as many mail-in votes for PA this time around and almost 2:1 Democrat to Republican. That supports Trump turnout is likely down in PA and not a particularly good sign for him.
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Ok, Biden got 1.995M votes vs 595k for Trump in PA via mail-in/absentee. So that metric although positive for Harris is lower (2.5x vs 3x) than Biden’s advantage. Let’s assume she takes 60% of those independents (142k). That’s still only 2.66x advantage over Trump.
I guess what is positive is that in pure numbers Trump is probably looking at a ceiling of 400k mail-in votes vs 595k in 2020 in PA.
Edit: It’s also worth pointing out that with covid Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to register to vote mail-in. So some of the attrition to Dem early voting may be baked into them turning out in-person as opposed to Republicans who were far less inclined to vote absentee in 2020.
Also national data on mail-in voting in 2020 via Pew: Nearly four-in-ten absentee or mail voters (39%) say they had never voted by this method prior to this November’s election. Biden absentee or mail-in voters were slightly more likely than Trump absentee voters to report not having voted this way in the past (42% vs. 34%).
I guess what is positive is that in pure numbers Trump is probably looking at a ceiling of 400k mail-in votes vs 595k in 2020 in PA.
Edit: It’s also worth pointing out that with covid Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to register to vote mail-in. So some of the attrition to Dem early voting may be baked into them turning out in-person as opposed to Republicans who were far less inclined to vote absentee in 2020.
Also national data on mail-in voting in 2020 via Pew: Nearly four-in-ten absentee or mail voters (39%) say they had never voted by this method prior to this November’s election. Biden absentee or mail-in voters were slightly more likely than Trump absentee voters to report not having voted this way in the past (42% vs. 34%).
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