***Official Political Discussion Thread***

[RustyShackleford]

That's fine people should just disagree with that.

But instead we get a lot of obtuse readings of anodyne posts and lame attempts at dunks for his past polling misses.

So it makes me skeptical the broad turn against him is really all that substantive.

Dude, maybe you should give people the benefit of the doubt too.

Because before you jumped in, no online was ****ting on hit forecasting skills.

Nike Jordan made his comment in response to you post talk about his forecasting.

Nate Silver has even apologized for some of his punditry. Especially his numerous post downplaying Trump chances on the nomination. Which he derided liberals for being so concerned about

You talk about insane Twitter behavior. Maybe you should consider that Nate Silver, who is on Twitter alot, also engaged in insane Twitter behavior and that has caused people to form a negative opinion of him.

One that if you tell them about his forecasting skills, it won't matter. And in many cases, shouldn't matter.

 

[RustyShackleford]

Like do we think Nate has forgotten about representative samples?
or is he drawing causal inferences from a rough data point?


it seems to really really obvious to me he's doing the latter.

but instead you get overheated responses like;

again this just seems to me, he's not on your team, so you will read everything he does in the most obtuse way possible
in order to secure a twitter dunk. it just feels like pure twitter theatrics.

When Nate sees people he wants to dunk on using things like Twitter polls, he has smug comments about measurement error.

Nate Silver is guilty of the accusations you are putting on his critics.

You have issue with people not giving grace to someone that denied it to others constantly.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

Dude, maybe you should give people the benefit of the doubt too.

Because before you jumped in, no online was ****ting on hit forecasting skills.

Nike Jordan made his comment in response to you post talk about his forecasting.

Nate Silver has even apologized for some of his punditry. Especially his numerous post downplaying Trump chances on the nomination. Which he derided liberals for being so concerned about

You talk about insane Twitter behavior. Maybe you should consider that Nate Silver, who is on Twitter alot, also engaged in insane Twitter behavior and that has caused people to form a negative opinion of him.

One that if you tell them about his forecasting skills, it won't matter. And in many cases, shouldn't matter.

I do think twitter a ton of times brings out the worst in people. and Nate is no exception.
bad take or good take. hate him or love him.

I just hate this YA-novelization of the world.
Where are all the people we don't like are conveniently also incompetent ugly losers who are wrong all the time.

 

[osh kosh bosh]

When Nate sees people he wants to dunk on using things like Twitter polls, he has smug comments about measurement error.

Nate Silver is guilty of the accusations you are putting on his critics.

You have issue with people not giving grace to someone that denied it to others constantly.

has Nate Silver lied about people or disengously recast their past accomplishments as fake in order to secure a Twitter dunk?

my point is not "people shouldn't be mean to Nate on twitter,
my point is people shouldn't pretend like your enemies are drooling buffoons and lie about their history to make the narrative stick.

imo it's different. Be mean to Nate if you want to.

 

[gry60]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-abo...-continue-pregnancy-despite/story?id=97918340

Blue states should request the voting records of out-of-state women seeking medical care for pregnancy related complications.

 

[IATT]

 

[IATT]

 

[RustyShackleford]

has Nate Silver lied about people or disengously recast their past accomplishments as fake in order to secure a Twitter dunk?

I would not know. He makes sweeping generalizations about a group's position, to the point where it looks like strawman arguments

But no, I haven't caught him making up a specific lie

my point is not "people shouldn't be mean to Nate on twitter,
my point is people shouldn't pretend like your enemies are drooling buffoons and lie about their history to make the narrative stick.

imo it's different. Be mean to Nate if you want to.

I don't think people were doing that in here in this discussion.

And there should be space for people to say they don't give a **** about his modeling too. Because in a lot of discussions, it really doesn't matter.

And part of the reason people have unrealistic expectations and a bad understanding of his model is because of his own doing/marketing, especially when he was blowing up. Mixed with the fact that people generally don't understand probability all that well

 

[dreamer23]

 

[dacomeup]

He’s really not good at this.

 

[had pants]

 

[rrlegend]

Lock him up

 

[IATT]

 

[Wargames]

trump really does burn everything down on the way out

Now when I said the Democrats should have done this to all the Governors sending undocumented immigrants to blue states as a form of human trafficking, people thought it was crazy or petty. Meanwhile the Republicans are going to do it and run a victory lap for sticking it to Dems.

 

[frink85]

https://abcnews.go.com/US/texas-abo...-continue-pregnancy-despite/story?id=97918340

Blue states should request the voting records of out-of-state women seeking medical care for pregnancy related complications.

Ngl she had me until that last paragraph

 

[wavycrocket]

Inception

 

[daruma]

so is this fool getting locked up or is it another smoke screen?

 

[wavycrocket]

Legit insanity man. Wow.

The number that has been done on them is mind blowing, when you step back.

Functioning, educated, wealthy adults……with absolute brain rot from propaganda.

Wow. Just wow

 

[mplsdunk]

Why did he send shots like that at the UK.

 

[RustyShackleford]

NYC drill is trash

UK drill is far superior

The fact Ice Spice is the King of NYC right now off the nonsense she makes says all that needs to be said about the sad state of the NYC drill scene

And I hope Based Jesus sees this

 

[had pants]

 

[mplsdunk]

NYC drill is trash

UK drill is far superior

The fact Ice Spice is the King of NYC right now off the nonsense she makes says all that needs to be said about the sad state of the NYC drill scene

And I hope Based Jesus sees this

I think UK drill is better too. I hate those ny drill beats that all sound the same with that bs weird noise they all have.

Favio foreign is ok though, trust goes hard af but that’s before they put that stupid drill noise on everything.

I saw a sign that said ice spice is this generation’s Beyoncé.

 

[frink85]

trump really does burn everything down on the way out

Am I missing something or are Gym and these people basically asking the DA to compromise his entire case with no precedent or legal background for this

 

[gry60]

It's the gays, and not the pedos hidden by the churches nationwide who are making people turn away from Christianity: /s

Not Your 'Church Next Door': 'Cult' Ignored Abuse, Ran 'Pyramid Scheme,' Lawsuit Claims

Defectors from the International Churches of Christ allege indoctrination, isolation, “rigid” teachings, financial demands, and indifference to claims of rape and abuse

www.rollingstone.com

A whole bunch of "quotables" in this case:

Salud Gonzelez, 30, claims she was sexually assaulted by the head Sunday School teacher at the ICOC church she attended for five years, starting when she was four. She claims that when her parents reported the abuse, the church let the man continue to lead the Sunday School program, and that a church leader told her father, “What do you want me to do about it?”

US Christian group accused of covering up sexual abuse of minors

Lawsuits claim International Churches of Christ leaders failed to report as well as plotted to conceal abuse of women and children

www.theguardian.com

The lawsuits, which seek damages, describe disturbing instances of molestation against minors. And they accuse the ICOC, its founder, Thomas “Kip” McKean, and associated organizations of creating “a widespread culture of acceptance of the abuse of children”.

“What happened to your girls isn’t that big of a deal,” a church elder allegedly told a mother of two young girls who were sexually assaulted on church grounds, according to a February filing. “Most girls have been molested by the time they reach 18.”

 

[RustyShackleford]

I think UK drill is better too. I hate those ny drill beats that all sound the same with that bs weird noise they all have.

Favio foreign is ok though, trust goes hard af but that’s before they put that stupid drill noise on everything.

I saw a sign that said ice spice is this generation’s Beyoncé.