OFFICIAL Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles Thread - Wild Card Weekend 4:30 EST on FOX

Let's go Pack. I'd rather face the Bears than the Falcons
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[h1][/h1]
[h1]Green Bay at Philadelphia[/h1]

[table][tr][td]
[table][tr][td] Packers on Offense[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]GB OFF[/td][td]PHI DEF[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]14.7% (7)[/td][td]1.4% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]WEI DVOA[/td][td]12.1% (10)[/td][td]2.9% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PASS[/td][td]33.0% (6)[/td][td]5.8% (11)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RUSH[/td][td]1.7% (11)[/td][td]-3.8% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RED ZONE[/td][td]-0.9% (17)[/td][td]63.6% (32)[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][td]
[table][tr][td] Eagles on Offense[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]PHI OFF[/td][td]GB DEF[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]21.3% (3)[/td][td]-10.8% (2)[/td][/tr][tr][td]WEI DVOA[/td][td]20.0% (5)[/td][td]-13.5% (2)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PASS[/td][td]23.5% (13)[/td][td]-17.9% (1)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RUSH[/td][td]29.2% (1)[/td][td]-1.8% (16)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RED ZONE[/td][td]1.9% (15)[/td][td]-19.6% (
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[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][td]
[table][tr][td] Special Teams[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]GB[/td][td]PHI[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]-2.2% (27)[/td][td]2.1% (13)[/td][/tr][tr][td]GB kickoff[/td][td]-5.8 (27)[/td][td]-11.6 (30)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PHI kickoff[/td][td]-10.8 (28)[/td][td]8.8 (7)[/td][/tr][tr][td]GB punts[/td][td]4.1 (15)[/td][td]1.5 (15)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PHI punts[/td][td]-1.2 (19)[/td][td]9.3 (6)[/td][/tr][tr][td]FG/XP[/td][td]0.4 (17)[/td][td]4.5 (10)[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][/tr][/table]​

All readers can click here for in-game discussion on our message boards. If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

Although it seems like an eternity ago, the Eagles and Packers have played against each other this season. The Packers battered Kevin Kolb into incompetence and then knocked him out with a concussion, braving an impressive second half from Michael Vick to end up with a 27-20 road win.

Of course, a lot has changed since then. Vick's gone from curiosity to franchise quarterback. LeSean McCoy's emerged as the spitting image of Brian Westbrook, and a member of the Eagles' defense has had a career season. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled mightily to get to this point. The NFC favorites by acclamation struggled through a season with more close losses and a swath of injuries that took out two key skill-position players on offense and ravaged their front seven. The "Miracle at the New Meadowlands" comeback by the Eagles actually helped get them here, creating a way for the Packers to control their own fate in Week 16 and Week 17.

This is the first round's most evenly-matched contest. The Eagles have a slight edge from playing at home, even after the Week 1 loss there. 52 percent of Yahoo users are choosing Philly and 48 percent have gone for Green Bay; in the other matchups, the favorites are all being picked at a 77 percent rate or higher. With the slimmest of margins separating the two teams, let's try and identify the spaces where one of these two teams actually has a significant advantage.
[h3]WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL[/h3]
2010GB17.png
Injuries have hit both sides of the ball here. Green Bay lost Ryan Grant in the Week 1 game against the Eagles and have lost Jermichael Finley and right tackle Mark Tauscher since. The Eagles are down Nate Allen, Brandon Graham, Ellis Hobbs, and likely Stewart Bradley for Sunday. If the game comes down to a big play, it could be a screwup from one of the replacements here -- a Bryan Bulaga holding penalty or a blown coverage by Dimitri Patterson. Each team has their own significant advantage to exploit, though.

The Eagles don't need to be encouraged to blitz. After the passing of Jim Johnson two years ago, Sean McDermott hasn't changed all that much about Johnson's scheme. Last year, although they kept blitzing just as much as they did under Johnson, the blitz wasn't particularly effective for Philadelphia. This year, though, things have changed. When the Eagles rush four, they've allowed 7.0 yards per attempt and a 44 percent Success Rate (versus league averages of 6.5 yards and a 45 percent Success Rate). Not very impressive. With a fifth man, their performance improves. They allow 5.1 yards per attempt (average: 5.9) and a 40 percent Success Rate (average: 46 percent). But five isn't enough for the Eagles. When they dial it up to six blitzers, the Eagles are downright dominant. They allow just 3.0 yards per attempt and a 28 percent Success Rate, well ahead of the league averages of 5.7 yards and a 40 percent Success Rate.

The only problem, though, is that the Packers are also good against big blitzes. They're good against any sort of coverage, truthfully; they average a full yard more than the league average against four rushers, 1.1 yards more than the average against five guys, and are at a robust 7.8 yards per attempt with a 47 percent Success Rate when the opposition rushes six. (They're below-average against seven, but that's in just eight attempts.) Their numbers are even better when you remove Matt Flynn's struggles against the blitz. In 33 dropbacks against a six-man rush, Rodgers is 18-of-31 for 288 yards with 14 first downs and two touchdown passes. He also has a 15-yard scramble for a first down against it.

The blitz works for the Eagles because they consistently produce an aggressive, talented secondary to operate behind it. This year, one player stands out as having had a dramatic impact on the success of that secondary: Asante Samuel. Samuel's missed four of the last six games with a knee injury, and that's been a huge problem for the Philly defense. During the first half of the season, when Samuel played in seven games, the Eagles had the sixth-best pass defense DVOA in the league. During the second half of the year, Samuel played in just four games, and the Eagles were 25th. While that's also attributable to other factors, Samuel's charting numbers suggest a player that is performing at an astounding level. With 35 passes charted in his direction, Samuel has allowed just 3.0 yards per attempt and put up a Success Rate of 77 percent. Those are filthy numbers. No other cornerback with 30 targets or more even comes within a yard of Samuel's rate, and the only other cornerback to hit even 70 percent in Success Rate this year is Darrelle Revis. The Eagles need Samuel to play at that lights-out level behind the blitzers if they're gonna be able to stop the Packers.

Fortunately for Eagles fans, the decline in the Philly pass defense has been mitigated by an improvement in their rushing defense. Their run defense has improved from 23rd in the first half of the season to 10th during the final eight weeks of the year. The absence of Bradley will leave rookie middle linebacker Jamar Chaney in the lineup; Chaney's been a nice surprise. Outside linebacker Ernie Sims is also day-to-day; if he is unable to play or goes down with an injury during the game, Philadelphia would be forced to use the very limited Akeem Jordan (or the gimpy Keenan Clayton) in the nickel. That could very well be a spot where the Packers exploit mismatches.

And, of course, Packers fans also deserve a fortunately. In this case, it's that they should be able to enjoy themselves when the Packers get inside the red zone. Even with the well-documented issues of the Green Bay running game in power situations (where they rank 25th), the Eagles just capitulate inside their own 20-yard line. Per DVOA, Philadelphia is last in red zone defense, last in red zone pass defense, last in goal-to-go defense, and a relatively impressive 30th in red zone run defense. The Packers went to the red zone twice in Week 1 and scored touchdowns both times.
[h3]WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL[/h3]
2010PHI17.png
It's not necessarily true that the Packers will defend Michael Vick the same way they did during the first game between these two teams. They're now missing a variety of defensive players they had during the first game, notably inside linebacker Nick Barnett. Defensive end Cullen Jenkins is a question mark as of Friday morning. The team has a week to prepare for Vick and watch film of how he works within this offense. In the first game, though, they tried to defend against Vick with a variety of different concepts. They mostly didn't work.

On Vick's first drive in the second half, the Packers showed off the Cover-7 look that was diagrammed at Cheesehead.tv earlier this week. The first play of the drive is an excellent example of how the Packers use it -- and how Vick can beat it. The Packers rush four and have their two cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, responsible for the wide receivers split out on either side. They show a single-high safety before the snap and then motion back into two-deep at the snap. The Packers win at the line of scrimmage when B.J. Raji blows through a block and forces Vick to scramble ... which the Packers have no answer for. Vick breaks a tackle downfield and ends up scrambling for 23 yards.

Obviously, Vick scrambling is going to be a situation where the Eagles should be dominant. As much as Vick has improved as a quarterback, it's really his scrambling that has created the sort of big games that have become his calling card. The comeback against the Giants can be traced almost exclusively back to Vick's ability as a runner, with Vick picking up four crucial first downs (including a 33-yard run on a key third-and-10 with 2:50 left) and a touchdown on his five carries. It's backed up by the numbers. When Vick scrambles, the Eagles average 7.8 yards per play and have a 49 percent Success Rate; the league average is 5.4 yards with a 41 percent Success Rate. The only teams really in the same stratosphere, strangely, are Chicago and Minnesota. Probably owing in part to their four games against those teams, the Packers have downright terrible numbers against scrambling quarterbacks: They allow 8.2 yards per play and a 50 percent Success Rate when quarterbacks go for a stroll.

On the next drive, the Packers immediately began to change things up by employing their best player: Charles Woodson. Woodson blitzed three times in nine plays. The first blitz was picked up but forced Vick into a mistake, as he successfully recognized his hot read, but one-hopped the throw to Maclin. This seems like the sort of mistake Vick will be less likely to make after a full season of throws. Blitz number two from Woodson is uncovered and forces Vick to immediately scramble into the line for a short gain. The third blitz is different: Instead of coming off the edge like he did on the first two blitzes, Woodson starts in the middle of the field and tries to sneak onto the edge as Vick snaps the ball. Unfortunately for the Packers, Woodson might have been better off where he was originally; the Eagles run right where Woodson used to be, and the result is a touchdown.

The Packers blitzed Woodson at least two more times in the second half from what I saw, with Woodson coming off the edge both times. It seems likely that the Packers will blitz Woodson at least a few times during Sunday's game, which makes me think that he'll line up somewhat regularly in the slot. The Eagles will use DeSean Jackson occasionally in the slot, but when Woodson lines up in the slot and doesn't blitz, he'll end up spending a fair amount of his time against Jason Avant. He can shut down Avant, but that leaves the Packers with Sam Shields outside against Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

Charting data suggests that big-blitzing Vick is the obvious right answer. Against a four-man rush, Vick has averaged 8.1 yards per play and a 49 percent Success Rate. Versus five, that falls to 6.6 yards per play and a 44 percent Success Rate, but the real difference comes when Vick sees a six-man rush. With 41 such plays charted, Vick has averaged just 2.5 yards per play and has a Success Rate of 24 percent. The only problem: Green Bay never rushes six or more. With 537 charted plays, they've rushed six guys just 14 times and seven just three. Last year, they rushed six or more just 5.4 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in football. This year, they're even below that figure.

The Eagles also struggled in short-yardage against the Packers. On one drive, they resorted to the usual mix of shovel passes and passes that Andy Reid was known for near the goal line and ended up with a field goal. Their final drive ended with Vick getting stopped on fourth-and-1 on some sort of ugly shotgun draw play, with Clay Matthews shooting the gap. Although Philadelphia's currently third in power situations, I think they may have some trouble inside the Packers' 10-yard line. No team's thrown more passes in that situation than the Eagles (48), and they've produced a -36.2% DVOA and 29 percent Success Rate there. Ironically, the only other team in the neighborhood with them is the Packers, who have thrown 46 passes. They've done slightly better, producing a 0.9% DVOA and a 46 percent Success Rate.
[h3]SPECIAL TEAMS[/h3]
The Eagles retain a significant advantage on special teams. They are competent while the Packers are dismal. Green Bay's 27th-place finish comes thanks to their dreadful performance on kickoffs (27th) and kickoff returns (28th). Jordy Nelson, Sam Shields, and Patrick Lee have each failed to produce very much in the return game. Tim Masthay has improved the Packers' punting work, but at 15th, that's their best asset. Simply not good enough.

Philly is above-average on everything special teams-related short one facet: Kickoff returns, where they're the third-worst team in the league. After Ellis Hobbs went down with his neck injury, the Eagles used rookie Jorrick Calvin on returns, but Calvin suffered a back injury and was placed on injured reserve Thursday. Gerard Lawson, who was playing in the UFL earlier this season and was only signed two weeks ago, will take over as their primary kick returner.
[h3]OUTLOOK[/h3]
Having gone through game tape and all the numbers, it seems even more difficult to pick a winner between these two teams. They each have situations they can exploit and equally-important situations they have to hope they can skate through. Is the Philadelphia red zone defense more obvious a flaw than the Green Bay issue with scrambling quarterbacks? Is the absence of Jermichael Finley more important than the injury to Stewart Bradley?

The truth is that this game is likely to come down to one or two key mistakes. If you believe that teams have innate issues with being clutch or handling pressure, both these organizations are led by head coaches renowned for screwing up in close games. One of them has to win. The Eagles' home field advantage gives them the slightest of edges here.



[h3]STATS EXPLAINED[/h3]
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You'll find it explained further here. Since DVOA measures ability to score, a negative DVOA indicates a better defense and worse offense, and a positive DVOA indicates a better offense and worse defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS numbers are different; they represent value in points of extra field position gained compared to NFL average. Field goal rating represents points scored compared to average kicker at same distances. All special teams numbers are adjusted by weather and altitude; the total is then translated into DVOA so it can be compared to offense and defense. Those numbers are explained here.

Each team is listed with DVOA for offense and defense, total along with rush and pass, and rank among the 32 teams in parentheses. (If the DVOA values are difficult to understand, it is easy to just look at the ranks.) We also list red zone DVOA and WEIGHTED DVOA (WEI DVOA), which is based on a formula which drops the value of games early in the season to get a better idea of how teams are playing now (explained here).

Each team also gets a chart showing their performance this year, game-by-game, according to total DVOA. In addition to a line showing each game, another line shows the team's trend for the season, using a third-power polynomial trendline. That's fancy talk for "the curve shifts direction once or twice." Note that even though the chart appears in the section for when each team has the ball, it represents total performance, not just offense.

Footballoutsiders break down...

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[h1][/h1]
[h1]Green Bay at Philadelphia[/h1]

[table][tr][td]
[table][tr][td] Packers on Offense[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]GB OFF[/td][td]PHI DEF[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]14.7% (7)[/td][td]1.4% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]WEI DVOA[/td][td]12.1% (10)[/td][td]2.9% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PASS[/td][td]33.0% (6)[/td][td]5.8% (11)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RUSH[/td][td]1.7% (11)[/td][td]-3.8% (14)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RED ZONE[/td][td]-0.9% (17)[/td][td]63.6% (32)[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][td]
[table][tr][td] Eagles on Offense[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]PHI OFF[/td][td]GB DEF[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]21.3% (3)[/td][td]-10.8% (2)[/td][/tr][tr][td]WEI DVOA[/td][td]20.0% (5)[/td][td]-13.5% (2)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PASS[/td][td]23.5% (13)[/td][td]-17.9% (1)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RUSH[/td][td]29.2% (1)[/td][td]-1.8% (16)[/td][/tr][tr][td]RED ZONE[/td][td]1.9% (15)[/td][td]-19.6% (
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[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][td]
[table][tr][td] Special Teams[/td][/tr][tr][td]
[/td][td]GB[/td][td]PHI[/td][/tr][tr][td]DVOA[/td][td]-2.2% (27)[/td][td]2.1% (13)[/td][/tr][tr][td]GB kickoff[/td][td]-5.8 (27)[/td][td]-11.6 (30)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PHI kickoff[/td][td]-10.8 (28)[/td][td]8.8 (7)[/td][/tr][tr][td]GB punts[/td][td]4.1 (15)[/td][td]1.5 (15)[/td][/tr][tr][td]PHI punts[/td][td]-1.2 (19)[/td][td]9.3 (6)[/td][/tr][tr][td]FG/XP[/td][td]0.4 (17)[/td][td]4.5 (10)[/td][/tr][/table]
[/td][/tr][/table]​

All readers can click here for in-game discussion on our message boards. If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

Although it seems like an eternity ago, the Eagles and Packers have played against each other this season. The Packers battered Kevin Kolb into incompetence and then knocked him out with a concussion, braving an impressive second half from Michael Vick to end up with a 27-20 road win.

Of course, a lot has changed since then. Vick's gone from curiosity to franchise quarterback. LeSean McCoy's emerged as the spitting image of Brian Westbrook, and a member of the Eagles' defense has had a career season. Meanwhile, the Packers struggled mightily to get to this point. The NFC favorites by acclamation struggled through a season with more close losses and a swath of injuries that took out two key skill-position players on offense and ravaged their front seven. The "Miracle at the New Meadowlands" comeback by the Eagles actually helped get them here, creating a way for the Packers to control their own fate in Week 16 and Week 17.

This is the first round's most evenly-matched contest. The Eagles have a slight edge from playing at home, even after the Week 1 loss there. 52 percent of Yahoo users are choosing Philly and 48 percent have gone for Green Bay; in the other matchups, the favorites are all being picked at a 77 percent rate or higher. With the slimmest of margins separating the two teams, let's try and identify the spaces where one of these two teams actually has a significant advantage.
[h3]WHEN THE PACKERS HAVE THE BALL[/h3]
2010GB17.png
Injuries have hit both sides of the ball here. Green Bay lost Ryan Grant in the Week 1 game against the Eagles and have lost Jermichael Finley and right tackle Mark Tauscher since. The Eagles are down Nate Allen, Brandon Graham, Ellis Hobbs, and likely Stewart Bradley for Sunday. If the game comes down to a big play, it could be a screwup from one of the replacements here -- a Bryan Bulaga holding penalty or a blown coverage by Dimitri Patterson. Each team has their own significant advantage to exploit, though.

The Eagles don't need to be encouraged to blitz. After the passing of Jim Johnson two years ago, Sean McDermott hasn't changed all that much about Johnson's scheme. Last year, although they kept blitzing just as much as they did under Johnson, the blitz wasn't particularly effective for Philadelphia. This year, though, things have changed. When the Eagles rush four, they've allowed 7.0 yards per attempt and a 44 percent Success Rate (versus league averages of 6.5 yards and a 45 percent Success Rate). Not very impressive. With a fifth man, their performance improves. They allow 5.1 yards per attempt (average: 5.9) and a 40 percent Success Rate (average: 46 percent). But five isn't enough for the Eagles. When they dial it up to six blitzers, the Eagles are downright dominant. They allow just 3.0 yards per attempt and a 28 percent Success Rate, well ahead of the league averages of 5.7 yards and a 40 percent Success Rate.

The only problem, though, is that the Packers are also good against big blitzes. They're good against any sort of coverage, truthfully; they average a full yard more than the league average against four rushers, 1.1 yards more than the average against five guys, and are at a robust 7.8 yards per attempt with a 47 percent Success Rate when the opposition rushes six. (They're below-average against seven, but that's in just eight attempts.) Their numbers are even better when you remove Matt Flynn's struggles against the blitz. In 33 dropbacks against a six-man rush, Rodgers is 18-of-31 for 288 yards with 14 first downs and two touchdown passes. He also has a 15-yard scramble for a first down against it.

The blitz works for the Eagles because they consistently produce an aggressive, talented secondary to operate behind it. This year, one player stands out as having had a dramatic impact on the success of that secondary: Asante Samuel. Samuel's missed four of the last six games with a knee injury, and that's been a huge problem for the Philly defense. During the first half of the season, when Samuel played in seven games, the Eagles had the sixth-best pass defense DVOA in the league. During the second half of the year, Samuel played in just four games, and the Eagles were 25th. While that's also attributable to other factors, Samuel's charting numbers suggest a player that is performing at an astounding level. With 35 passes charted in his direction, Samuel has allowed just 3.0 yards per attempt and put up a Success Rate of 77 percent. Those are filthy numbers. No other cornerback with 30 targets or more even comes within a yard of Samuel's rate, and the only other cornerback to hit even 70 percent in Success Rate this year is Darrelle Revis. The Eagles need Samuel to play at that lights-out level behind the blitzers if they're gonna be able to stop the Packers.

Fortunately for Eagles fans, the decline in the Philly pass defense has been mitigated by an improvement in their rushing defense. Their run defense has improved from 23rd in the first half of the season to 10th during the final eight weeks of the year. The absence of Bradley will leave rookie middle linebacker Jamar Chaney in the lineup; Chaney's been a nice surprise. Outside linebacker Ernie Sims is also day-to-day; if he is unable to play or goes down with an injury during the game, Philadelphia would be forced to use the very limited Akeem Jordan (or the gimpy Keenan Clayton) in the nickel. That could very well be a spot where the Packers exploit mismatches.

And, of course, Packers fans also deserve a fortunately. In this case, it's that they should be able to enjoy themselves when the Packers get inside the red zone. Even with the well-documented issues of the Green Bay running game in power situations (where they rank 25th), the Eagles just capitulate inside their own 20-yard line. Per DVOA, Philadelphia is last in red zone defense, last in red zone pass defense, last in goal-to-go defense, and a relatively impressive 30th in red zone run defense. The Packers went to the red zone twice in Week 1 and scored touchdowns both times.
[h3]WHEN THE EAGLES HAVE THE BALL[/h3]
2010PHI17.png
It's not necessarily true that the Packers will defend Michael Vick the same way they did during the first game between these two teams. They're now missing a variety of defensive players they had during the first game, notably inside linebacker Nick Barnett. Defensive end Cullen Jenkins is a question mark as of Friday morning. The team has a week to prepare for Vick and watch film of how he works within this offense. In the first game, though, they tried to defend against Vick with a variety of different concepts. They mostly didn't work.

On Vick's first drive in the second half, the Packers showed off the Cover-7 look that was diagrammed at Cheesehead.tv earlier this week. The first play of the drive is an excellent example of how the Packers use it -- and how Vick can beat it. The Packers rush four and have their two cornerbacks, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams, responsible for the wide receivers split out on either side. They show a single-high safety before the snap and then motion back into two-deep at the snap. The Packers win at the line of scrimmage when B.J. Raji blows through a block and forces Vick to scramble ... which the Packers have no answer for. Vick breaks a tackle downfield and ends up scrambling for 23 yards.

Obviously, Vick scrambling is going to be a situation where the Eagles should be dominant. As much as Vick has improved as a quarterback, it's really his scrambling that has created the sort of big games that have become his calling card. The comeback against the Giants can be traced almost exclusively back to Vick's ability as a runner, with Vick picking up four crucial first downs (including a 33-yard run on a key third-and-10 with 2:50 left) and a touchdown on his five carries. It's backed up by the numbers. When Vick scrambles, the Eagles average 7.8 yards per play and have a 49 percent Success Rate; the league average is 5.4 yards with a 41 percent Success Rate. The only teams really in the same stratosphere, strangely, are Chicago and Minnesota. Probably owing in part to their four games against those teams, the Packers have downright terrible numbers against scrambling quarterbacks: They allow 8.2 yards per play and a 50 percent Success Rate when quarterbacks go for a stroll.

On the next drive, the Packers immediately began to change things up by employing their best player: Charles Woodson. Woodson blitzed three times in nine plays. The first blitz was picked up but forced Vick into a mistake, as he successfully recognized his hot read, but one-hopped the throw to Maclin. This seems like the sort of mistake Vick will be less likely to make after a full season of throws. Blitz number two from Woodson is uncovered and forces Vick to immediately scramble into the line for a short gain. The third blitz is different: Instead of coming off the edge like he did on the first two blitzes, Woodson starts in the middle of the field and tries to sneak onto the edge as Vick snaps the ball. Unfortunately for the Packers, Woodson might have been better off where he was originally; the Eagles run right where Woodson used to be, and the result is a touchdown.

The Packers blitzed Woodson at least two more times in the second half from what I saw, with Woodson coming off the edge both times. It seems likely that the Packers will blitz Woodson at least a few times during Sunday's game, which makes me think that he'll line up somewhat regularly in the slot. The Eagles will use DeSean Jackson occasionally in the slot, but when Woodson lines up in the slot and doesn't blitz, he'll end up spending a fair amount of his time against Jason Avant. He can shut down Avant, but that leaves the Packers with Sam Shields outside against Jackson or Jeremy Maclin.

Charting data suggests that big-blitzing Vick is the obvious right answer. Against a four-man rush, Vick has averaged 8.1 yards per play and a 49 percent Success Rate. Versus five, that falls to 6.6 yards per play and a 44 percent Success Rate, but the real difference comes when Vick sees a six-man rush. With 41 such plays charted, Vick has averaged just 2.5 yards per play and has a Success Rate of 24 percent. The only problem: Green Bay never rushes six or more. With 537 charted plays, they've rushed six guys just 14 times and seven just three. Last year, they rushed six or more just 5.4 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in football. This year, they're even below that figure.

The Eagles also struggled in short-yardage against the Packers. On one drive, they resorted to the usual mix of shovel passes and passes that Andy Reid was known for near the goal line and ended up with a field goal. Their final drive ended with Vick getting stopped on fourth-and-1 on some sort of ugly shotgun draw play, with Clay Matthews shooting the gap. Although Philadelphia's currently third in power situations, I think they may have some trouble inside the Packers' 10-yard line. No team's thrown more passes in that situation than the Eagles (48), and they've produced a -36.2% DVOA and 29 percent Success Rate there. Ironically, the only other team in the neighborhood with them is the Packers, who have thrown 46 passes. They've done slightly better, producing a 0.9% DVOA and a 46 percent Success Rate.
[h3]SPECIAL TEAMS[/h3]
The Eagles retain a significant advantage on special teams. They are competent while the Packers are dismal. Green Bay's 27th-place finish comes thanks to their dreadful performance on kickoffs (27th) and kickoff returns (28th). Jordy Nelson, Sam Shields, and Patrick Lee have each failed to produce very much in the return game. Tim Masthay has improved the Packers' punting work, but at 15th, that's their best asset. Simply not good enough.

Philly is above-average on everything special teams-related short one facet: Kickoff returns, where they're the third-worst team in the league. After Ellis Hobbs went down with his neck injury, the Eagles used rookie Jorrick Calvin on returns, but Calvin suffered a back injury and was placed on injured reserve Thursday. Gerard Lawson, who was playing in the UFL earlier this season and was only signed two weeks ago, will take over as their primary kick returner.
[h3]OUTLOOK[/h3]
Having gone through game tape and all the numbers, it seems even more difficult to pick a winner between these two teams. They each have situations they can exploit and equally-important situations they have to hope they can skate through. Is the Philadelphia red zone defense more obvious a flaw than the Green Bay issue with scrambling quarterbacks? Is the absence of Jermichael Finley more important than the injury to Stewart Bradley?

The truth is that this game is likely to come down to one or two key mistakes. If you believe that teams have innate issues with being clutch or handling pressure, both these organizations are led by head coaches renowned for screwing up in close games. One of them has to win. The Eagles' home field advantage gives them the slightest of edges here.



[h3]STATS EXPLAINED[/h3]
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You'll find it explained further here. Since DVOA measures ability to score, a negative DVOA indicates a better defense and worse offense, and a positive DVOA indicates a better offense and worse defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS numbers are different; they represent value in points of extra field position gained compared to NFL average. Field goal rating represents points scored compared to average kicker at same distances. All special teams numbers are adjusted by weather and altitude; the total is then translated into DVOA so it can be compared to offense and defense. Those numbers are explained here.

Each team is listed with DVOA for offense and defense, total along with rush and pass, and rank among the 32 teams in parentheses. (If the DVOA values are difficult to understand, it is easy to just look at the ranks.) We also list red zone DVOA and WEIGHTED DVOA (WEI DVOA), which is based on a formula which drops the value of games early in the season to get a better idea of how teams are playing now (explained here).

Each team also gets a chart showing their performance this year, game-by-game, according to total DVOA. In addition to a line showing each game, another line shows the team's trend for the season, using a third-power polynomial trendline. That's fancy talk for "the curve shifts direction once or twice." Note that even though the chart appears in the section for when each team has the ball, it represents total performance, not just offense.

Footballoutsiders break down...

FO is super in-depth and unbiased.  Read if you want to...
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If (and I mean IF) Dimitri Patterson can find a way to play decent today, we should be okay defensively. 
 
If (and I mean IF) Dimitri Patterson can find a way to play decent today, we should be okay defensively. 
 
PACKERS-45 EAGLES-0



VICK TEARS HIS ACL
pimp.gif





smiling-cowboys-v-eagles.jpg



/END SALTY COWBOYS FAN RANT
laugh.gif





Na seriously I hope to see a good game but I do have the Packers taking this one. Rodgers is the truth
pimp.gif



 
PACKERS-45 EAGLES-0



VICK TEARS HIS ACL
pimp.gif





smiling-cowboys-v-eagles.jpg



/END SALTY COWBOYS FAN RANT
laugh.gif





Na seriously I hope to see a good game but I do have the Packers taking this one. Rodgers is the truth
pimp.gif



 
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