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OFFICIAL FINANCIAL MARKETS & ECONOMY THREAD
- Thread in 'General' Thread starter Started by dey know yayo,
- Start date
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Let me be the first to welcome you back to NT.
Highly appreciate the financial knowledge.
Will read and opine when I get the chance.
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Let me be the first to welcome you back to NT.
Highly appreciate the financial knowledge.
Will read and opine when I get the chance.
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Will be posting these daily. Feel free to shoot me an email if you'd like to subscribe/be thrown on the nightly mailing list. I'm a college undergrad and don't make money off of this newsletter/commentary (its benefit to me is forcing me to do 2-3+ hrs of market research and analysis on a daily basis to keep me improving as a trader) so no conflicts of interest/scammery.
Would love to entertain discussion, debate, comments, and questions. Will not respond to questions about how to trade, or how to start/learn. Just google/wikipedia/research the stuff you don't understand. The resources are out there, and for free too.
Would love to entertain discussion, debate, comments, and questions. Will not respond to questions about how to trade, or how to start/learn. Just google/wikipedia/research the stuff you don't understand. The resources are out there, and for free too.
- 968
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Will be posting these daily. Feel free to shoot me an email if you'd like to subscribe/be thrown on the nightly mailing list. I'm a college undergrad and don't make money off of this newsletter/commentary (its benefit to me is forcing me to do 2-3+ hrs of market research and analysis on a daily basis to keep me improving as a trader) so no conflicts of interest/scammery.
Would love to entertain discussion, debate, comments, and questions. Will not respond to questions about how to trade, or how to start/learn. Just google/wikipedia/research the stuff you don't understand. The resources are out there, and for free too.
Would love to entertain discussion, debate, comments, and questions. Will not respond to questions about how to trade, or how to start/learn. Just google/wikipedia/research the stuff you don't understand. The resources are out there, and for free too.
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been waiting for this...will participate
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been waiting for this...will participate
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He's back! Cool. Bookmarked.
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He's back! Cool. Bookmarked.
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More developments from the Germany vs EU drama: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704638304575636580416827208.html
The EC (executive body of the EU) wants to double the EFSF (European sovereign bailout fund) to mitigate market concerns that it is insufficiently large to deal with issues from Spain and Portugal. Germany, of course, is sick of paying for the losing debtors in the failed EMU experiment and has in fact exacerbated the Irish crisis by the timing and severity of Merkel's comments regarding the inclusion of bondholder haircuts in any permanent debt resolution mechanism.
My take is that Berlin will eventually relent to EU contagion risks via the intermediary of the Bundesbank, and Weber will get the go-ahead from Merkel to give the go-ahead to Trichet to begin a bond purchasing program (Q2-Q3 2011 is my guess for timeframe), bringing the ECB to joining the ranks of the Fed, BoJ, and BoE in instituting QE. Germany is very anti-inflationist, given the Weimar hyperinflation of the 1930s and its role in causing the rise of Hitler and eventually WWII, but its export growth model is facing twofold headwinds from opposing CB easing programs diminishing competitive advantage as well as overall global demand destruction hurting export aggregates, so a selloff in EURUSD would probably be welcome from Berlin, especially if/when growth data shows Germany's economy slowing down (which is inevitable once the EURUSD rally from 1.19 to 1.42 gets discounted into economic data/figures, most likely Q1-Q2 2011).
From there, Berlin can experience a huge export-driven economic boom while simultaneously selling euros, eventually eliminating contagion/systemic-level exposure and beginning domestic currency NDFs once EURUSD plunges to crisis levels, at which point Germany can start blaming the periphery for ruining Germany's own monetary system and going against the Maastricht Treaty's and cultural German demands and guidelines regarding inflation and currency stability, particularly politically pragmatic considering the already-existing and increasing rift between Germany and the periphery because of the sovereign debt crises. This would be the first step in Germany leaving the EMU and thus the euro.
What Greece represents is the modern-day, sovereign version of the Creditanstalt crisis moment in 1931, and thus Germany needs to distance itself from the rest of Europe's monetary policy with a strict sense of eventuality. However, that does not mean it cannot be opportunistic to gain both economic advantage and political capital by timing its departure, as well as create the conditions because of which and context within which it reacts, from the EMU and its currency.
As I said in the piece I published above, TMM bring up a very interesting point in noting that G7 sov CDS are not triggered by redenomination. The race to debase, which I've been predicting since 2008 (on Niketalk as well), is very much on and growing, and this situation is providing the ECB with the justification for entering the QE rush, and with the BoJ now wholly defeated by the markets and the Fed's second iteration discounted in markets ahead of a likely sharp contraction in growth in mid-2011 due to fiscal consolidation and state/muni funding crises, the ECB and BoE easing programs will likely be the most significant driving forces at the margin as far as central bank policy in the first half of 2011. As such, EURXXX and GBPXXX crosses are likely strong candidates for sharp selloffs for the next several months, and I like CAD USD & CHF as the currencies to go long against these shorts.
The EC (executive body of the EU) wants to double the EFSF (European sovereign bailout fund) to mitigate market concerns that it is insufficiently large to deal with issues from Spain and Portugal. Germany, of course, is sick of paying for the losing debtors in the failed EMU experiment and has in fact exacerbated the Irish crisis by the timing and severity of Merkel's comments regarding the inclusion of bondholder haircuts in any permanent debt resolution mechanism.
My take is that Berlin will eventually relent to EU contagion risks via the intermediary of the Bundesbank, and Weber will get the go-ahead from Merkel to give the go-ahead to Trichet to begin a bond purchasing program (Q2-Q3 2011 is my guess for timeframe), bringing the ECB to joining the ranks of the Fed, BoJ, and BoE in instituting QE. Germany is very anti-inflationist, given the Weimar hyperinflation of the 1930s and its role in causing the rise of Hitler and eventually WWII, but its export growth model is facing twofold headwinds from opposing CB easing programs diminishing competitive advantage as well as overall global demand destruction hurting export aggregates, so a selloff in EURUSD would probably be welcome from Berlin, especially if/when growth data shows Germany's economy slowing down (which is inevitable once the EURUSD rally from 1.19 to 1.42 gets discounted into economic data/figures, most likely Q1-Q2 2011).
From there, Berlin can experience a huge export-driven economic boom while simultaneously selling euros, eventually eliminating contagion/systemic-level exposure and beginning domestic currency NDFs once EURUSD plunges to crisis levels, at which point Germany can start blaming the periphery for ruining Germany's own monetary system and going against the Maastricht Treaty's and cultural German demands and guidelines regarding inflation and currency stability, particularly politically pragmatic considering the already-existing and increasing rift between Germany and the periphery because of the sovereign debt crises. This would be the first step in Germany leaving the EMU and thus the euro.
What Greece represents is the modern-day, sovereign version of the Creditanstalt crisis moment in 1931, and thus Germany needs to distance itself from the rest of Europe's monetary policy with a strict sense of eventuality. However, that does not mean it cannot be opportunistic to gain both economic advantage and political capital by timing its departure, as well as create the conditions because of which and context within which it reacts, from the EMU and its currency.
As I said in the piece I published above, TMM bring up a very interesting point in noting that G7 sov CDS are not triggered by redenomination. The race to debase, which I've been predicting since 2008 (on Niketalk as well), is very much on and growing, and this situation is providing the ECB with the justification for entering the QE rush, and with the BoJ now wholly defeated by the markets and the Fed's second iteration discounted in markets ahead of a likely sharp contraction in growth in mid-2011 due to fiscal consolidation and state/muni funding crises, the ECB and BoE easing programs will likely be the most significant driving forces at the margin as far as central bank policy in the first half of 2011. As such, EURXXX and GBPXXX crosses are likely strong candidates for sharp selloffs for the next several months, and I like CAD USD & CHF as the currencies to go long against these shorts.
- 968
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- Feb 28, 2008
More developments from the Germany vs EU drama: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704638304575636580416827208.html
The EC (executive body of the EU) wants to double the EFSF (European sovereign bailout fund) to mitigate market concerns that it is insufficiently large to deal with issues from Spain and Portugal. Germany, of course, is sick of paying for the losing debtors in the failed EMU experiment and has in fact exacerbated the Irish crisis by the timing and severity of Merkel's comments regarding the inclusion of bondholder haircuts in any permanent debt resolution mechanism.
My take is that Berlin will eventually relent to EU contagion risks via the intermediary of the Bundesbank, and Weber will get the go-ahead from Merkel to give the go-ahead to Trichet to begin a bond purchasing program (Q2-Q3 2011 is my guess for timeframe), bringing the ECB to joining the ranks of the Fed, BoJ, and BoE in instituting QE. Germany is very anti-inflationist, given the Weimar hyperinflation of the 1930s and its role in causing the rise of Hitler and eventually WWII, but its export growth model is facing twofold headwinds from opposing CB easing programs diminishing competitive advantage as well as overall global demand destruction hurting export aggregates, so a selloff in EURUSD would probably be welcome from Berlin, especially if/when growth data shows Germany's economy slowing down (which is inevitable once the EURUSD rally from 1.19 to 1.42 gets discounted into economic data/figures, most likely Q1-Q2 2011).
From there, Berlin can experience a huge export-driven economic boom while simultaneously selling euros, eventually eliminating contagion/systemic-level exposure and beginning domestic currency NDFs once EURUSD plunges to crisis levels, at which point Germany can start blaming the periphery for ruining Germany's own monetary system and going against the Maastricht Treaty's and cultural German demands and guidelines regarding inflation and currency stability, particularly politically pragmatic considering the already-existing and increasing rift between Germany and the periphery because of the sovereign debt crises. This would be the first step in Germany leaving the EMU and thus the euro.
What Greece represents is the modern-day, sovereign version of the Creditanstalt crisis moment in 1931, and thus Germany needs to distance itself from the rest of Europe's monetary policy with a strict sense of eventuality. However, that does not mean it cannot be opportunistic to gain both economic advantage and political capital by timing its departure, as well as create the conditions because of which and context within which it reacts, from the EMU and its currency.
As I said in the piece I published above, TMM bring up a very interesting point in noting that G7 sov CDS are not triggered by redenomination. The race to debase, which I've been predicting since 2008 (on Niketalk as well), is very much on and growing, and this situation is providing the ECB with the justification for entering the QE rush, and with the BoJ now wholly defeated by the markets and the Fed's second iteration discounted in markets ahead of a likely sharp contraction in growth in mid-2011 due to fiscal consolidation and state/muni funding crises, the ECB and BoE easing programs will likely be the most significant driving forces at the margin as far as central bank policy in the first half of 2011. As such, EURXXX and GBPXXX crosses are likely strong candidates for sharp selloffs for the next several months, and I like CAD USD & CHF as the currencies to go long against these shorts.
The EC (executive body of the EU) wants to double the EFSF (European sovereign bailout fund) to mitigate market concerns that it is insufficiently large to deal with issues from Spain and Portugal. Germany, of course, is sick of paying for the losing debtors in the failed EMU experiment and has in fact exacerbated the Irish crisis by the timing and severity of Merkel's comments regarding the inclusion of bondholder haircuts in any permanent debt resolution mechanism.
My take is that Berlin will eventually relent to EU contagion risks via the intermediary of the Bundesbank, and Weber will get the go-ahead from Merkel to give the go-ahead to Trichet to begin a bond purchasing program (Q2-Q3 2011 is my guess for timeframe), bringing the ECB to joining the ranks of the Fed, BoJ, and BoE in instituting QE. Germany is very anti-inflationist, given the Weimar hyperinflation of the 1930s and its role in causing the rise of Hitler and eventually WWII, but its export growth model is facing twofold headwinds from opposing CB easing programs diminishing competitive advantage as well as overall global demand destruction hurting export aggregates, so a selloff in EURUSD would probably be welcome from Berlin, especially if/when growth data shows Germany's economy slowing down (which is inevitable once the EURUSD rally from 1.19 to 1.42 gets discounted into economic data/figures, most likely Q1-Q2 2011).
From there, Berlin can experience a huge export-driven economic boom while simultaneously selling euros, eventually eliminating contagion/systemic-level exposure and beginning domestic currency NDFs once EURUSD plunges to crisis levels, at which point Germany can start blaming the periphery for ruining Germany's own monetary system and going against the Maastricht Treaty's and cultural German demands and guidelines regarding inflation and currency stability, particularly politically pragmatic considering the already-existing and increasing rift between Germany and the periphery because of the sovereign debt crises. This would be the first step in Germany leaving the EMU and thus the euro.
What Greece represents is the modern-day, sovereign version of the Creditanstalt crisis moment in 1931, and thus Germany needs to distance itself from the rest of Europe's monetary policy with a strict sense of eventuality. However, that does not mean it cannot be opportunistic to gain both economic advantage and political capital by timing its departure, as well as create the conditions because of which and context within which it reacts, from the EMU and its currency.
As I said in the piece I published above, TMM bring up a very interesting point in noting that G7 sov CDS are not triggered by redenomination. The race to debase, which I've been predicting since 2008 (on Niketalk as well), is very much on and growing, and this situation is providing the ECB with the justification for entering the QE rush, and with the BoJ now wholly defeated by the markets and the Fed's second iteration discounted in markets ahead of a likely sharp contraction in growth in mid-2011 due to fiscal consolidation and state/muni funding crises, the ECB and BoE easing programs will likely be the most significant driving forces at the margin as far as central bank policy in the first half of 2011. As such, EURXXX and GBPXXX crosses are likely strong candidates for sharp selloffs for the next several months, and I like CAD USD & CHF as the currencies to go long against these shorts.
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what is this i dont even
Edit - How do I trade?
Edit - How do I trade?
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what is this i dont even
Edit - How do I trade?
Edit - How do I trade?
- 968
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How is political information for currency markets considered "inside information" in comparison to the States and stock insider trading? You know what I mean? Technically currency has more to do with macro/micro economics than say your other investment products.
I'm not disregarding what you are saying, just asking
I'm not disregarding what you are saying, just asking
How is political information for currency markets considered "inside information" in comparison to the States and stock insider trading? You know what I mean? Technically currency has more to do with macro/micro economics than say your other investment products.
I'm not disregarding what you are saying, just asking
I'm not disregarding what you are saying, just asking
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Outright inside information = being told what will happen before the public finds out. Which I'm sure is still very existent in hedge fund information networks. However, imagine a scenario in which you're a rates trader and you went to school with the German FinMin or worked with the US SecTreas. You know them personally. At that point, you know the why's and why not's of all of their decisionmaking, and may even have a hand in influencing policy a bit. There's no necessity to being told outright what will happen, it's more of a matter of you have a better understanding of all of the possible scenarios and contingencies (probably better than the policymakers in fact) and are able to capitalize on them quicker and with higher conviction than anyone else. It still could be considered "inside information" from a conceptual perspective but as far as legal risk it is minimal since there's no actual exchange of confidential information, it's just access to a faculty of understanding the true mechanisms behind world events at a whole different level.
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Outright inside information = being told what will happen before the public finds out. Which I'm sure is still very existent in hedge fund information networks. However, imagine a scenario in which you're a rates trader and you went to school with the German FinMin or worked with the US SecTreas. You know them personally. At that point, you know the why's and why not's of all of their decisionmaking, and may even have a hand in influencing policy a bit. There's no necessity to being told outright what will happen, it's more of a matter of you have a better understanding of all of the possible scenarios and contingencies (probably better than the policymakers in fact) and are able to capitalize on them quicker and with higher conviction than anyone else. It still could be considered "inside information" from a conceptual perspective but as far as legal risk it is minimal since there's no actual exchange of confidential information, it's just access to a faculty of understanding the true mechanisms behind world events at a whole different level.
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PS NTers who believe in Illuminati conspiracies-- the hedge fund/banking world is a perfect case study for you guys to prove small parts of your beliefs and totally disprove the essence of your perspective. Yes, there are people who quite literally pull the strings behind all world events. The difference is, they're not all on one side (there's a million sides and only a few very legitimate/powerful ones but the alliances are constantly shifting) and it isn't a matter of being "born" into it or raised into it (especially nowadays) as much as earning your way into it, which anyone can do in a developed economy.
It's just a matter of making enough money to where your dollars have a real say on things, and in the process meeting the people who will be shaping and dictating policy going forward as well. If you go to LSE or MIT or Stanford, your roommate you're getting drunk with every weekend may be the next Fed chairman one day, the RA for your hall may be the next big hedge fund manager running 2 & 20 on AUM in the billions, your girlfriend may be the next IMF chief economist. And it isn't just the sick schools obviously, if you can make money, you can make enough money to where your dollars actually are impacting the world's course of events. And it isn't just your connections, because presumably you can be the next President etc as well. Obama went to Occidental undergrad after all. Yes, he went to Harvard Law, but anyone can go to Harvard Law if they're smart and hardworking enough.
"Money talks" is one of the most accurate idioms you will ever hear. And for those who think it's impossible to ever make billions without the pedigree, all you need to see is short bios of a small but significant portion of the Forbes 400. You may assume by my writing that I learned all of this at a top-notch school and after working at top-notch hedge funds with top-notch elites. The fact is, I'm a math major senior at the University of Michigan and although I have hedge fund experience, I learned almost all of this on my own just using the internet as my primary tool.
Illuminati conspiracies = people's excuses used to hide the fact that the real reason they're not running the world is because they just weren't plain hungry enough to grind their way to the top and ignore the naysayers, eventually leading them to becoming self-defeatist naysayers who hide behind pseudointellectual claims of understanding the real "inner workings."
Soros's dad escaped the Holocaust and George was a philosophy major at Oxford who had no interest in finance at first. Kovner was driving a cab after dropping out of his Harvard PhD program when he discovered trading. Bush vs Kerry came down to Kovner vs Soros, in fact, and the American Enterprise Institute (of which Cheney was a VP and which Kovner funded) was basically singlehandedly behind the uprising of the neocon bloc and their hijacking of the GOP that led to Bush's presidency. The pedigree is important, but not vital, and the pedigree itself is attainable through hard work. People forget Andrew Carnegie was a college dropout Irish immigrant that created the world's first billion-dollar business, which he was literally able to cash out of successfully, using none other than JP Morgan as the financier and purchaser, who aggregated Carnegie's steel enterprises and his competitors into a conglomerate known as US Steel. No illuminati there, just hard work and the hunger for the next dollar.
My point with this rant: sure, if you're born into a poor, torn household, you're at a very striking disadvantage compared to being born into an affluent, stable household with successful role models. But if you're not born into the "elite," that does not at all mean you are limited in the potential success you can have or restricted from the upper echelon of gamechangers. In fact, any disadvantage you do have, no matter how significant, isn't going to be vital/fatal. You can 100% earn "privileged" life/power/information. Making money is the surest way to it. Some people look at money as potential purchasing power for material goods. Other people look at money as a scoreboard by which to keep track of your life's progress (not every aspect of your life, but the worldly aspects, especially regarding power & success) and leverage to get what you want.
It's just a matter of making enough money to where your dollars have a real say on things, and in the process meeting the people who will be shaping and dictating policy going forward as well. If you go to LSE or MIT or Stanford, your roommate you're getting drunk with every weekend may be the next Fed chairman one day, the RA for your hall may be the next big hedge fund manager running 2 & 20 on AUM in the billions, your girlfriend may be the next IMF chief economist. And it isn't just the sick schools obviously, if you can make money, you can make enough money to where your dollars actually are impacting the world's course of events. And it isn't just your connections, because presumably you can be the next President etc as well. Obama went to Occidental undergrad after all. Yes, he went to Harvard Law, but anyone can go to Harvard Law if they're smart and hardworking enough.
"Money talks" is one of the most accurate idioms you will ever hear. And for those who think it's impossible to ever make billions without the pedigree, all you need to see is short bios of a small but significant portion of the Forbes 400. You may assume by my writing that I learned all of this at a top-notch school and after working at top-notch hedge funds with top-notch elites. The fact is, I'm a math major senior at the University of Michigan and although I have hedge fund experience, I learned almost all of this on my own just using the internet as my primary tool.
Illuminati conspiracies = people's excuses used to hide the fact that the real reason they're not running the world is because they just weren't plain hungry enough to grind their way to the top and ignore the naysayers, eventually leading them to becoming self-defeatist naysayers who hide behind pseudointellectual claims of understanding the real "inner workings."
Soros's dad escaped the Holocaust and George was a philosophy major at Oxford who had no interest in finance at first. Kovner was driving a cab after dropping out of his Harvard PhD program when he discovered trading. Bush vs Kerry came down to Kovner vs Soros, in fact, and the American Enterprise Institute (of which Cheney was a VP and which Kovner funded) was basically singlehandedly behind the uprising of the neocon bloc and their hijacking of the GOP that led to Bush's presidency. The pedigree is important, but not vital, and the pedigree itself is attainable through hard work. People forget Andrew Carnegie was a college dropout Irish immigrant that created the world's first billion-dollar business, which he was literally able to cash out of successfully, using none other than JP Morgan as the financier and purchaser, who aggregated Carnegie's steel enterprises and his competitors into a conglomerate known as US Steel. No illuminati there, just hard work and the hunger for the next dollar.
My point with this rant: sure, if you're born into a poor, torn household, you're at a very striking disadvantage compared to being born into an affluent, stable household with successful role models. But if you're not born into the "elite," that does not at all mean you are limited in the potential success you can have or restricted from the upper echelon of gamechangers. In fact, any disadvantage you do have, no matter how significant, isn't going to be vital/fatal. You can 100% earn "privileged" life/power/information. Making money is the surest way to it. Some people look at money as potential purchasing power for material goods. Other people look at money as a scoreboard by which to keep track of your life's progress (not every aspect of your life, but the worldly aspects, especially regarding power & success) and leverage to get what you want.
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