***Official AL West 2009 Season thread***Angels Win it Again***

[N41D]

Originally Posted by finnns2003

Originally Posted by Nowitness41Dirk

Come on CJ...

i thought the game was over. CJ FTW!

Karma striking back for me getting at Aardsma last night...

 

[finnns2003]

 

[kiddin like jason]

Nowitness Daniels, what are you giving me for Cliff Lee right now?

But back to the main course of this discussion, moving a MAJOR piece like Clifton Phifer at what could represent "peak" value for pitching, here's Ken Rosenthal's piece on the Blue Jays "allegedly" shopping (or at least listening to offers on) Roy Halladay.

Why is this rumor and innuendo relevant to the Indians?
Replace the word "Halladay" with "Lee" and the similarities become striking - two AL Cy Young Award winners (currently ranked 6th and 10th in VORP among pitchers, a year after finishing 1st and 4th in VORP among pitchers) in their early-30's, whose deals expire after the 2010 season, currently pitching for teams whose chances for contention in 2010 are certainly up for debate.

One major difference between the two, in terms of contracts, is that Halladay holds a full no-trade clause which would need to be waived for him to be moved (CP Lee does not) and Halladay is owed about $23M over the next year and a half while Lee is owed about $12M through the end of 2010.

To that end, Dave Cameron at Fangraphs.com has an utterly fascinating look at Halladay's value over the next season and a half. If you're looking to equate Cameron's formula to Lee, the value of Halladay (in terms of performance) would be greater based solely on the length of Halladay's effectiveness compared to Lee as Halladay has been a truly elite pitcher for seven out of the last eight years while Lee is really only working on about a year and a half with varying degrees of success in the 2005 and 2006 seasons mixed in. Thus, if Halladay is "a +6 to +7 win pitcher, easily the best in baseball", as Cameron states, let's say that Lee is a +4 to +5 win pitcher…which is actually probably a little low given what Lee's accomplished since the dawn of the 2008 season.

Cameron equates a "win" to about $5M on the open market for a premium Free Agent, with the lesser risk of only holding a contract on a pitcher for a year and a half (that is, the long-term risk of a shorter deal is limited) pushing the deal that Halladay is working under (which has the same timeframe as that of Lee) to about $5.5M a season. That puts Lee's value (in Cameron's language) to $22M to $27.5M per season. Again, like Cameron, if we settle on $25M as middle ground (he has Halladay's value as $35M per season), a year and a half of Lee at his current performance is worth $37M.

It should be noted here, that Cameron is not saying that these players SHOULD be paid these numbers, he's simply trying to assign value to particular players' performance to discern what an apples-to-apples comparison of a players' worth would be.

Back to the exercise, Cameron asserts about Halladay that "you can't forget about the fact that he's very likely to be a Type A free agent at the end of 2010, and the acquiring team would be able to recoup two quality draft choices if they didn't re-sign him as a free agent. Thanks to some good work by Victor Wang, we can see that the value of Halladay's Type A status is around $8 million or so."

That $8M number would be no different for Lee, so if Cameron's math can be applied to Lee, it would go something like this:
$37 million for Lee's performance + $8 million for the draft picks = $45 million in total value. He will be paid $12 million over that time frame, so 45-12 = $33 million over the next year and a half.

Halladay's "value" came in at $38M, with Cameron asserting thusly:
To acquire the Jays ace, teams should be expected to surrender something like $40 million in value.

What does $40 million in value look like? Something like three terrific prospects who are not that far from the majors. No one's giving up players from the Matt Wieters/David Price mold, but it's going to take several players from that second prospect tier, the top 25-50 type guys.

Phillies fans - that's Dominic Brown, Kyle Drabek, and Carlos Carrasco.
Mets fans? Fernando Martinez, Wilmer Flores, and Jenrry Mejia.

To put those names in terms of what stage of development those players are in, Cameron's Phillies "offer" would be (in order of significance) Drabek (a 21-year-old RHP in AA with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP), Carrasco (a 22-year-old RHP in AAA with a 5.06 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP), and Brown (a 21-year-old OF in High-A with an OPS of .919). His Mets "offer" would be Martinez (a 20-year-old OF in AAA with an OPS of .877), Mejia (a 19-year-old RHP in AA with a 3.74 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP) and Flores (a 17-year-old SS in Low-A with an OPS of .684).

It's a lot of math and analysis, I know, but it's also an awfully comprehensive look at how the value of a Halladay stacks up with the value of a Lee with higher expectations for Halladay and a lower price tag for Lee.

As for what the Blue Jays are concretely asking for, SI.com's Jon Heymann reports that Toronto is looking for "two big-time prospects who'll be major-league ready by next year, including a prime hitter, and two very good prospects who are further away from the bigs" within a piece about whether the fan backlash to a trade of Halladay would preclude the Blue Jays from making such a move.

Back to the North Coast and CP Lee, an interesting wild card (other than Halladay also possibly being available, obviously) in the possibility of trading Lee would be whether the Indians employ the strategy they used in the Casey Blake deal last year and pick up the remaining salary for Lee in 2009 if he was moved. If that were to happen, a year and a half of Lee would "cost" only $9M, which could increase the return for the Indians if they were so inclined and if the acquiring team was looking to limit adding payroll this year like the Dodgers did last year.

 

[kookcle]

^ Thats his Plan B .

He wants Halladay first

 

[N41D]

If they're working off the assumption that nobody gives up David Prices and Matt Weiters types anymore, then you'd have to think Justin Smoak is offlimits... He's as close to a sure-thing as you're gonna find... And Neftali Feliz ain't far off...

I'd think you're starting with the centerpiece being either Smoak or Feliz or Martin Perez. The Rangers probably don't do two of those three, giventheir financial issues and them not wanting to dump guys that'll basically be playing for free... And then a grab bag of the second-tier types that makethe Rangers system so damn deep... Michael Main, Blake Beavan, Max Ramirez, Taylor Teagarden, Wilmer Font, Julio Borbon, Engel Beltre... Maybe somebody buyslow on Chris Davis, given his rebound at AAA thus far... Maybe somebody thinks David Murphy is an everyday player and would take him as one of the lesserpieces...

If it were me, and I knew these guys were willing to come here AND sign extensions, AND I could afford it, I'd offer Smoak and Feliz for Halladay. Probablynot two of those top three for Lee, but obviously one would have to be included... But with the financial issues we keep hearing about, I don't imaginethey'd trade that much or be able to afford to ensuing contract extensions...

 

[finnns2003]

i'd love to take 3 out of 4 right here from the rangers. morrow, now in AAA, was the gimme game.

 

[kiddin like jason]

Probably not two of those top three for Lee, but obviously one would have to be included...
That's what I figured.

I would probably let him go for Feliz, Davis, Beaven and another lower-level guy or two.

The idea of trading him and/or Vic is becoming less and less ridiculous to me.

I'm getting into scouting teams like I did for C.C. last year. I pretty much called the return for him from the Brewers, so I'm working on it again forCliff and Vic.

I see Max has ran into some issues on the AAA level, huh? He was making it look too easy on the first few levels. I fear the same with Carlos Santana.

 

[N41D]

Originally Posted by Kiddin Like Jason

I see Max has ran into some issues on the AAA level, huh? He was making it look too easy on the first few levels. I fear the same with Carlos Santana.

Supposedly a lot of his issues have been health related, though... He's been playing through some injuries, he's been sick... Just not alot going right for him so far this year...

 

[finnns2003]

alright! the vaunted rangers bullpen!

 

[651akathepaul]

Went to the Texas-Seattle game on friday. It was fun despite the M's loss, but I hadn't really been paying attention to just how potent that Texaslineup was in regards to HR. Nelson Cruz hit a blast, that had me

.

If Mariners pull this game out today, even despite, you can definitely see that the Mariners pitching is top notch. Against the division that will obviously behuge down the stretch. Mariners had their top 3 guys going and if it plays out, they will be 3-0 this series. Morrow is blah, but he won't be nothing morethan a back end guy. Very interesting to see how this plays out.

Sodo Mojo!

P.S. - First time seeing Hamilton live, and he takes such ferocious cuts at the ball, that when he makes contact, I can only imagine what it must've beenlike to see his HR Derby performance last year. The sound the ball makes when he makes contact is

. So sweet.

 

[N41D]

Mariners backing into 2 runs in the third...

Hannahan sucks..

The Ranger offense is !%##%$# pathetic...

 

[N41D]

Now two runs on that crap?

Talk about unlucky... 4 runs scored because of two infield hits and two badly hit bloop singles... Ugh.

 

[akajae]

 

[N41D]

Meh... Lots of bad luck for the Rangers today... Mariners score 4 runs as a result of 3 infield hits and 2 bloops singles over Elvis' glove by a combined18 inches...

If you had told me before the season started we'd be sitting 1.5 games outta first place and 9 games over .500 at the All-Star Break, I'd have beenecstatic... So yeah... Pretty happy with where things sit, especially given the Angels' inability to win divisional games...

Rangers need another real bat if they're gonna take this thing in the second half... Offense needs a lot more help than the pitching does...

 

[osh kosh bosh]

David Camron.

His trade value columns are the best.

 

[finnns2003]

Yessir, Dirk. I told ya... Good pitching >

 

[kookcle]

2ND HALF ----

[table][tr][td]WEST[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]PCT[/td] [td]GB[/td] [td]HOME[/td] [td]ROAD[/td] [td]RS[/td] [td]RA[/td] [td]DIFF[/td] [td]STRK[/td] [td]L10[/td] [/tr][tr][td]LA Angels[/td] [td]49[/td] [td]37[/td] [td].570[/td] [td]-[/td] [td]27-18[/td] [td]22-19[/td] [td]461[/td] [td]429[/td] [td]+32[/td] [td]Won 3[/td] [td]7-3[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Texas[/td] [td]48[/td] [td]39[/td] [td].552[/td] [td]1.5[/td] [td]28-17[/td] [td]20-22[/td] [td]430[/td] [td]396[/td] [td]+34[/td] [td]Lost 2[/td] [td]6-4[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Seattle[/td] [td]46[/td] [td]42[/td] [td].523[/td] [td]4[/td] [td]25-18[/td] [td]21-24[/td] [td]348[/td] [td]366[/td] [td]-18[/td] [td]Won 2[/td] [td]6-4[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Oakland[/td] [td]37[/td] [td]49[/td] [td].430[/td] [td]12[/td] [td]19-21[/td] [td]18-28[/td] [td]361[/td] [td]401[/td] [td]-40[/td] [td]Won 2[/td] [td]5-5[/td] [/tr][/table]

 

[kookcle]

Probable Starters


SEA: Hernandez (9-3, 2.53 ERA)

CLE: Huff (4-3, 6.71 ERA)

MIN: Perkins (4-5, 4.71 ERA)

TEX: Padilla (7-4, 4.53 ERA)

LAA: Saunders (8-5, 4.65 ERA)

OAK: Cahill (5-8, 4.67 ERA)

 

[finnns2003]

texas in a freefall, we're almostttt past them. we see you, Anaheim.

 

[HIM]

wow i havent posted in weeks.

Rivera, Vladdy and Hunter out

still in first place and 25-9 in our last 34 and 9-1 in our last 10

Balanced teams win divisions

 

[N41D]

Originally Posted by finnns2003

texas in a freefall, we're almostttt past them. we see you, Anaheim.

Not so fast, my friend...

still in first place and 25-9 in our last 34 and 9-1 in our last 10

And half them losses came to the Rangers...

14-17 against the AL West ain't gonna get it done over the long haul...

 

[HIM]

It was actually 26-9

14-17 against the AL West ain't gonna get it done over the long haul...



since june 11th we've gained 7.5 games on you guys...that includes going 2-4 against y'all. Now i know we wont continue playing .740 baseball for theremainder of the season but i also don't see us playing .450 against the division.

If the season continues the way it's been going so far the last few weeks of the season could be interesting; 3 game series at texas and 4 game series inAnaheim.

 

[N41D]

You hear that?

Sounded like the wind being sucked right out of Seattle's sails...

 

[akajae]

 

[N41D]

[table][tr][td]WEST[/td] [td]W[/td] [td]L[/td] [td]GB[/td] [td]HOME[/td] [td]ROAD[/td] [td]RS[/td] [td]RA[/td] [td]DIFF[/td] [/tr][tr][td]LA Angels[/td] [td]58[/td] [td]39[/td] [td]-[/td] [td]30-19[/td] [td]28-20[/td] [td]533[/td] [td]480[/td] [td]+53[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Texas[/td] [td]54[/td] [td]42[/td] [td]3.5
[/td] [td]32-19[/td] [td]22-23[/td] [td]464[/td] [td]422[/td] [td]+42[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Seattle[/td] [td]51[/td] [td]47[/td] [td]7.5
[/td] [td]25-21[/td] [td]26-26[/td] [td]379[/td] [td]418[/td] [td]-39[/td] [/tr][tr][td]Oakland[/td] [td]41[/td] [td]56[/td] [td]17[/td] [td]22-25[/td] [td]19-31[/td] [td]425[/td] [td]464[/td] [td]-39[/td] [/tr][/table]

Angels reportedly made an offer to the Jays, which was countered by the Jays and then turned down... Reportedly have interest in Cliff Lee, too...

Rangers are all quiet on the trade front, not sure what to make of it... They scouted Willingham, Dunn, and Johnson from the Nats... Have reported interest inScott Downs and George Sherrill... Touched base with the Jays on Halladay, haven't heard much else...

Seattle... Gotta think they're inching closer and closer to being sellers, right? Bedard back on the DL kills his value and that trade chip... Talk aboutbad timing...