It's UPS, no one can tell you for sure. What is so hard to grasp about this concept?
Our government taxes products imported to the states. Customs is the agency that handles this and like any government agency they are more focused on illegal drugs and weapons to catch everything that should be taxed. Depending on your shipping carrier they add on additional fees as a handling charge. Import duties depend on the declared value of the package, country of origin, country of manufacture, what materials are used, what the manufacture classifies the item as, etc. etc.
NO ONE CAN TELL YOU IF YOU WILL BE CHARGED OR HOW MUCH!
They can tell you how much they were charged for, if they where charged, and all the other variables that apply. You can call DHL and get an estimate or you can sign up on FedEx (its free but you have to sign up)and they have a customs duties estimator.
If the shipping companies can't give you an exact amount and they do this for a living, certainly none of us can either.