Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Season Thread Vol: (17-17)

[CP1708]

When it's been 108 years since you've won a World Series, you should be willing to overpay to get a closer of Aroldis Chapman's ability. The Chicago Cubs will reportedly send shortstop prospect Gleyber Torres, Double-A outfielder Billy McKinney, pitcher Adam Warren and a fourth player to the New York Yankees for the flame-throwing Chapman, as the Cubs continue to remake their bullpen.

Maybe Torres develops into a future All-Star; but if Chapman helps deliver a World Series title, I'm pretty sure Cubs fans will take the trade-off.

Are the Cubs unbeatable now? After all, the perceived weakness of the team was the bullpen, a group that has gone 12-12 with a 3.83 ERA that ranks 14th in the majors. For most of the season, the pen looked like this:

Closer: Hector Rondon

Righty setup: Pedro Strop, Trevor Cahill

Lefty setup: Travis Wood, Clayton Richard

Long/mop-up: Justin Grimm, Warren



Now it looks like this:

Closer: Chapman

Righty setup: Rondon, Strop

Lefty setup: Mike Montgomery, Wood

Long/mop-up: Carl Edwards, Joe Nathan, Grimm

With the way Edwards has looked since his call-up and the trades for Chapman and Montgomery (lefties have hit .176 against him), the Cubs now have six quality relievers, plus the wild card of Nathan, who just appeared in his first game and struck out the side (albeit around a walk and a hit). Before the trades, they had only three dependable relievers in Rondon, Strop and Wood.

It's not that Joe Maddon just has depth; he has nasty depth. Chapman's exploits with his fastball are well documented -- he's averaged 100.1 mph this season -- and while his strikeout rate of 36.7 percent is his lowest in five seasons, batters are still hitting just .179 against him and he's cut down on his walks so his OBP allowed is his lowest since 2012.

Rondon won't be removed from his closer role because he was pitching poorly -- he has 48 strikeouts, five walks and a 1.95 ERA -- although as I documented last week, he has been shaky in close games. His fastball/slider combo is death to right-handed batters, who have a meager .379 OPS against him; he's not as dominant against lefties (.611 OPS), so now Maddon can mix and match if desired. Strop has one of the nastiest sliders in the game and Montgomery throws 94 from the left side with a four-pitch arsenal that has made him reasonably effective against right-handed batters as well. Edwards throws 95 with a mean curveball. The additional depth gives Maddon another bonus: He won't have to ride his starters as hard, conserving their workload so they'll be stronger in October.

The Nationals and Dodgers share the best bullpen ERAs in the National League (and the majors) at 2.98, but are you taking Jonathan Papelbon/Shawn Kelley/Felipe Rivero/Oliver Perez/Blake Treinen over the Cubs' late-game group? There's a reason the Nationals were pursuing Chapman as well. Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen has dominant peripheral numbers with a .153 average and a 56/7 strikeout-to-walk ratio, but he's blown five saves; his poor record in close games is reflected in win probability added, where he ranks just 33rd among relievers. The Mets have a 3.10 bullpen ERA and Jeurys Familia hasn't blown a save all season, but their season bullpen line is basically identical to the Cubs':

Cubs: .213/.301/.354, .291 wOBA, 24.6% K rate, 10.1% BB rate

Mets: .226/.297/.358, .291 wOBA, 24.9% K rate, 8.8% BB rate

With Chapman, Montgomery and Edwards now in the mix, I would take the Cubs' pen moving forward.

So back to the question: If the Cubs now have the league's best bullpen -- in an era where the Royals have shown you can ride a dominant bullpen to a World Series crown -- on top of having the best rotation (3.04 ERA to Washington's second-best 3.43), are they now unbeatable?

Before answering, I thought I'd look at the teams with the best bullpens in recent years and how they fared in the playoffs. I used win probability added (available on FanGraphs) to pick the three best from each season.

2015


1. Pirates -- lost wild-card game

2. Royals -- won World Series

3. Cardinals -- lost Division Series

2014

1. Padres -- missed playoffs

2. Royals -- lost World Series

3. Orioles -- lost ALCS

2013

1. Pirates -- lost Division Series

2. Rangers -- missed playoffs

3. Braves -- lost Division Series

2012

1. Orioles -- lost Division Series

2. Rays -- missed playoffs

3. A's -- lost Division Series

2011

1. Braves -- missed playoffs

2. Yankees -- lost Division Series

3. Red Sox -- missed playoffs

And here's where the World Series teams ranked in bullpen WPA:

2015: Royals (2nd) over Mets (13th)

2014: Giants (11th) over Royals (2nd)

2013: Red Sox (13th) over Cardinals (10th)

2012: Giants (15th) over Tigers (17th)

2011: Cardinals (27th) over Rangers (25th)

Look, there's no doubt a bullpen can make the difference, as witnessed in last year's World Series which turned in Game 1 when Familia blew the ninth-inning lead. But teams with bad and mediocre pens have won as well and teams with great bullpens have melted down in October. It's all about getting hot at the right time. As good as Chapman is, he's also never had a save opportunity in the postseason.

But the are Cubs are undoubtedly better now than they were yesterday. They've not only added Chapman, but kept him from going to another team. They seem back on track with three straight series wins. Getting Dexter Fowler back will help the offense. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are MVP candidates. The Cubs aren't unbeatable, but they look again like the team to beat.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

C'mon CP you're better than that, no need to take it to an extreme where I'm discrediting Theo.


For years we've been praising him non stop here, but let's not act like the man is beyond reproach. After all let's look back at the Gagne, Lugo, Renteria moves he's done in the past.
Not taking anything away from the miracle he's done here, but he is not without faults.

I agree that Warren was hot garbage, and myself along with others here were never happy we gave up Castro a 2x all star for him, just so happens we got to dump that garbage back at the yanks and they kept Castro at no cost. Castro could've brought in more than just a shaky reliever.

As far as Chap, yeah I know he would've never cleared waivers but that made the Yanks more desperate to move him. All in all I'm not thrilled with the trade. If this nets us a WS then I will gladly apologize to everyone here, but as it stands I haven't been thrilled with Theo's moves lately.

 

[CP1708]

The Chicago Cubs have added a much-needed power lefty arm to their bullpen in Aroldis Chapman.

Chicago sent four players to the New York Yankees in exchange for Chapman.

It’s the third trade between the Yankees and Cubs since July of 2013. Chicago sent Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees for minor leaguer Corey Black in July that year. They also traded Starlin Castro for Adam Warren and Brendan Ryan in December of 2015.

The Cubs’ bullpen looked good in April but has seen its production drop every month since then. Chicago relievers posted a 2.72 ERA with one blown save in April, a 3.80 ERA with two blown saves in May and a 3.96 ERA with four blown saves in June. In July, Chicago’s bullpen has a 4.64 ERA (24th in Major League Baseball) and three blown saves (tied for fourth most).

Chicago ranks 14th in the majors in bullpen ERA on the season at 3.83.

Cubs left-handed relief pitchers have allowed a .956 OPS in July. That’s the sixth-highest OPS allowed by left-handed relief pitchers this month.

Chapman’s opponents have a .351 OPS in July, fourth lowest in MLB.

Elite fastball

Chapman has been the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball since entering the league in 2010. Over the past seven seasons, Chapman has thrown 1,513 pitches at 100.0 mph or faster, more than the next 18 pitchers on the list combined. His career average fastball velocity is 98.7 mph, highest in the majors.

But Chapman’s average fastball velocity for the Yankees this season has been well above his career average. It’s up to 100.0 mph, 2 mph faster than the next-closest player, Noah Syndergaard (minimum 200 fastballs thrown).

Forty-four of Chapman’s fastballs have reached 103 mph this season, already 16 more than his previous career high for a season. Only one other player in the majors has thrown a pitch that fast this season, the Braves’ Mauricio Cabrera, who has thrown four.

Elite results

The high-powered fastball has led to the highest strikeouts per nine innings rate in MLB history and very few hits.

Chapman joins the Cubs with a career rate of 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, 0.7 better than Craig Kimbrel in second place (minimum 250 innings pitched).

No pitcher has allowed a lower opponent batting average on fastballs over the past seven seasons than Chapman's .171 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances ending with fastballs).

He has allowed a .157 opponent batting average on all of his pitches over the past seven seasons, lowest out of 533 qualified pitchers. Chapman’s opponent well-hit average of 9.8 percent ranks second in MLB on that list behind former teammate Dellin Betances (9.5 percent).

Chapman has at least 30 saves and 100 strikeouts in each of the previous four seasons. That's the most such seasons in MLB history.

NL Central context

The St. Louis Cardinals have not scored a run against Chapman since 2011. Chapman has had 25 straight scoreless appearances against the Cardinals with 46 strikeouts since last allowing a run to them.

Chicago will be happy to have Chapman on their side. Since his first appearance against the Cubs in 2011, Chapman has allowed six earned runs in 37 innings against Chicago (1.46 ERA) with 65 strikeouts.

SLP, not taking it to any extremes, or saying you're bashing him or anything, just reminding you that he is someone you should trust if/when he makes a move.

Players like Gagne or Renteria who were already All Star players that run out of gas aren't on Theo man. You have to factor in market conditions, who else was available, etc. That's like blaming him for David Price not signing with us, and he ends up with only Zobrist, Heyward, and Lackey. Heyward isn't having a great year, but he's been great defensively, has helped worked counts and had some big hits, and gives us versatility in terms of CF-RF when Dexter went down. And on top of that, we still have the best record in the league, even with him struggling. (and he's had a lot of bad luck too)

I get you want to see the title won first, before you crown him. I get that. I hear you. I do. But he has more than enough credit with me that I can be patient and see how he finishes the roster before I get upset with him. I still don't think he's done dealing.

 

[CP1708]

Christopher Kamka ‏@ckamka 48m48 minutes ago
Aroldis Chapman has allowed 8 XBH to lefties in his career.

Gordon Wittenmyer ‏@GDubCub 2h2 hours ago
Theo: "Can't take for granted the position we're in ... Gave up a lot. But if not now, when"

Mark Gonzales ‏@MDGonzales 3h3 hours ago
Ross said he called Brian McCann for a background check on Chapman. Report was very favorable.

Gordon Wittenmyer ‏@GDubCub 25m25 minutes ago
Scout familiar w/ Cub org: “None of those guys is going to hurt them." Rates only Torres as big upside; but OK “because they’ve got Baez”

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

CP your my dude!
I never go against the grain, with u or any of my Cubs family here. I consider you the resident Cubs guru, so I agree with what your saying, big picture this was a small price to pay.
After letting in sink in the last couple of hours I can honestly say this was the price we had to pay to play......teams know we're on the hunt and they will try to squeeze us for everything we got.

I'm just hoping it pays off.

In Theo we trust!!!!

 

[CP1708]

Kris Bryant robbed of a homer in the first.

Dude has EASILY lost 8-10 homers this year either at the wall, or robbed, or wind stopped it, etc.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Baez with a 2 run shot to keep us in it!

 

[CP1708]

Need Jake to get back on track, no matter what happens this year.

 

[CP1708]

Unreal.......

Bryant robbed of homer.
Bryant base hit, Javy thrown out.
Bryant base hit, Fowler to 3rd, KB thrown out stretching for double.

All 3 plays by Melky ******* Cabrera.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Helluva rally in the 9th!
Hoping Bryant is ok, he looked a bit off after getting tagged out.

 

[arstyle27]

Aaaand we lose another Arrieta start

 

[sportsjunkie]

Aaaand we lose another Arrieta start

lets not panic. relax lol

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Aaaand we lose another Arrieta start

Was just talking about this with a co worker. Seems like ever since he started talking about extensions and not taking any hometown discounts, he's been off. Jake gotta work himself through it. Hopefully he'll be primed come the playoffs.

 

[arstyle27]

And you guys wonder why I get the panic bug....losing 2 straight to the pathetic White Sux is why.....offense sucks

 

[CP1708]

No, I wonder why you panic over having the best record in baseball.

Seems weird.

The best teams in baseball lose 60+ games EVERY. YEAR.

Every. Year.

We are going to lose 60+ games. Period.

Why freak out over every single one?

Last year we were 51-46. This year 59-40. We're alright man. Let it play out.

 

[arstyle27]

I hate losing. Hate it hate it hate it. The last month hasn't been good. We need to handle our business against craptastic teams, because at some point it's gonna get close again. Just wait.

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Gotta hope we split the series. Can't believe we lost these last 2 to the Süx.
I got a substantial amount of $$$ riding on this series.

 

[CP1708]

Jayson Stark [emoji]10004[/emoji] @jaysonst
Cubs seem to be viewing Deadline Week now as a long-term shopping opportunity. Wouldn't be a surprise if they took a run at Rays' starters.

Jayson Stark's take: After trading for Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery and activating Joe Nathan, the Cubs have addressed the bullpen, the one area of their team that they viewed as a defined weakness. Although they clearly aren't finished shopping, rival teams say the Cubs have been asking about controllable starting pitchers. Jake Odorizzi and Matt Moore in Tampa Bay fit the profile of a trade they could match up with.

The Cubs balked at including young players who have already reached the big leagues -- Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Kyle Schwarber, etc. -- in their pursuit of Chapman and other closers. Tampa Bay has been asking for big league-ready players in virtually any deal it would make for a starting pitcher, so that could be a deal-breaker for now, possibly to be resumed this winter. But a team with as many prospects to trade as the Cubs can't be counted out of the discussion about almost any name currently bouncing around.

Also a lot of connection with Oakland for OF Josh Reddick.

 

[illmatic34]

Wonder when the offense will wake the **** up

 

[arstyle27]

Explain the lack offense , CP.....you said they needed rest......you said there were injuries......we suck

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Bryant with a monster solo HR.
C'mon Cubbies need to split the series!!

 

[CP1708]

You really don't grasp context, do you?

You only grasp what's in front of you, in that moment?

They are 3rd in all of baseball in runs. They're having a bad series. That happens.

Red Sox
Cardinals
Cubs

All of baseball.

#WeSuck

 

[Lake Shore Drive]

Javy "MF'ing" Baez!!!

 

[arstyle27]

View media item 2114886

 

[arstyle27]

You really don't grasp context, do you?

You only grasp what's in front of you, in that moment?

They are 3rd in all of baseball in runs. They're having a bad series. That happens.

Red Sox
Cardinals
Cubs

All of baseball.

#WeSuck

I wish I could live my baseball life like you, bro. I live a quarter mile at a time. I just hate losing. Don't care if it's game 8, 67, or 155...I hate it. The white sux are garbage, and I can't stand playing down to competition, especially with St Louis rt behind us.