- Nov 18, 2007
- 28,284
- 9,562
I strongly disagree with the entire idea of protesting a trade (except in the cases ofobvious collusion).
As far as protesting a trade that YOU, yourself accepted? SMFH.
OFFICIAL 2014 FANTASY BASEBALL THREAD
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by venom lyrix,
- Start date
I strongly disagree with the entire idea of protesting a trade (except in the cases ofobvious collusion).
As far as protesting a trade that YOU, yourself accepted? SMFH.
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
Anymore takers? League is public but I'd rather fill it out as much as I can before the draft time approaches.
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
Still need 5 more.
- Mar 9, 2010
- 2,280
- 643
invite me i wanna see the league settings. If I like I'll [email protected]
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
Sent.
- Mar 9, 2010
- 2,280
- 643
I'm in 
run.lmc
formerly highriser07
- Mar 11, 2006
- 2,109
- 89
Would you guys do a Tulo/Harper for CarGo/Ian Desmond deal? I'd be sending away Tulo & Harp
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
I wouldn't. I like Bryce too much this year. Tulo can turn in a great year if he just stays on the field.
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
Asdrubal Cabrera or Jhonny Peralta. Who am I keeping?
I lean JP.
I lean JP.
GreenNGold89
formerly bbllplaya23
- Apr 5, 2005
- 6,672
- 2,317
My roster in a 16 team league (I had the 14th pick):
C: Y. Molina
1b: C. Davis
2b: B. Zobrist
3b: K. Seager
SS: JJ Hardy
OF: Braun, Marte, Bourn
Until: N. Markakis
NA: G. Springer
SP: Verlander
SP: Gray
SP: Minor
RP: Parnell
RP: Jones
P: Santana, Straily, Dickey
BN: Quintana, Ventura, Scheppers
I have 1 empty roster spot. I know I have no bench on offensive :x but I'll prob deal for someone if needed.
Categories in this league are R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB, W, SV, ERA and K.
What do you think?
C: Y. Molina
1b: C. Davis
2b: B. Zobrist
3b: K. Seager
SS: JJ Hardy
OF: Braun, Marte, Bourn
Until: N. Markakis
NA: G. Springer
SP: Verlander
SP: Gray
SP: Minor
RP: Parnell
RP: Jones
P: Santana, Straily, Dickey
BN: Quintana, Ventura, Scheppers
I have 1 empty roster spot. I know I have no bench on offensive :x but I'll prob deal for someone if needed.
Categories in this league are R, HR, RBI, AVG, SB, W, SV, ERA and K.
What do you think?
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
- Feb 12, 2005
- 60,616
- 32,317
You gotta keep one?
It's Asdrubal's contract year too, so you know how that always works out with some players. Food for thought. I got a funny feeling he'll be a Yankee in August.
Missing that draft has me in Houston Astros rebuild mode. I'm up to it though.
I see it as a coin flip. Cabrera may get me steals, but Jhonny is in the better lineup and coming off what could have been a career year had he not get suspended. The contract year for Cabrera levels it back out for me. Ugh.
I guess for now I'll hold onto both to see how it plays out and deal with a lack of quality pitching depth. Long season.
Last edited:
cubanref
Supporter
- Aug 9, 2004
- 5,969
- 8,650
If anyone needs someone in a league PM me. I always set my lineups and am active in leagues. Let me know!
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
I'm still looking to join a $ league
run.lmc
formerly highriser07
- Mar 11, 2006
- 2,109
- 89
Taijuan Walker or Yordano Ventura? I want to drop one because I'm in desperate need of steals
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
yikes...those are 2 guys you hold on to for a bit to see if they pan out. Electric arms, high potential.
Who else do you have
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
Soria has been named the closer in Texas
run.lmc
formerly highriser07
- Mar 11, 2006
- 2,109
- 89
I have Scherzer, Lester, Gray, Shelby Miller, Gio Gonzalez, and Tim Lincecum. I'm gonna keep Walker, kid could be this years Jose Fernandez
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
Out of that group
the only guys worth to be kept are Gray, Scherzer, Miller
everyone else is expendable.
lovehateself
Supporter
- Feb 5, 2013
- 44,789
- 50,633
its a long season bruh
Missing that draft has me in Houston Astros rebuild mode. I'm up to it though.
- Mar 9, 2010
- 2,280
- 643
Profar out 10-12 weeks with a torn muscle in his right shoulder
- Mar 21, 2013
- 445
- 464
should i drop him i have him on my fantasy team?
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
if you have a DL spot stash him
Deciding on divisive fantasy players.
The 'Perfect' Draft: Think balance early.
Stock Watch: Soria up, Profar down.
Q: Jacoby Ellsbury seems to be the one person fantasy owners don’t believe in as much ESPN's fantasy experts do: We have him ranked No. 7, his average draft position is 12. What do you think?
If he's healthy he'll produce, and his injuries have never been of the chronic variety.
Q: Starlin Castro killed his owners last season, some of whom will not take a chance on him again this season. But he’s still so young. If he can overcome his hammy issues, is he poised to bounce back?
I don't think he's "poised" to bounce back, and the hamstring never struck me as a valid explanation for what went wrong with him as he's not much of a runner. His approach stinks -- his plate discipline is bad, and his mental plan at the plate does not exist. The best concrete reason I could see to hope for a rebound is the change in managers; I've heard that Dale Sveum and Castro were simply not on the same page, and the Cubs hope that Rick Renteria, who is bilingual and has a very different temperament from Sveum, can get through to Starlin.
The other reason would be that Castro posted a career-worst BABIP last year and that he never at any point projected as a below-average BABIP guy. If anything, I would have guessed he'd be a high-BABIP, low-walk guy who posted decent OBPs because he'd make a ton of contact, but his contact rate last year was also the worst of his career. Betting on a return to the .310-.320 BABIP range seems realistic; betting on a return to where he was in 2010-11, while certainly possible, seems optimistic.
Q: Which is the real Brandon Belt?
The version we saw from late April on last year, after Bruce Bochy helped solidify Belt's swing and got him to keep his weight back consistently. I've always been a believer.
Q: Young middle infield prospects, Xander Bogaerts and Jurickson Profar, seem to find one owner who likes them to be very good this year. Will a full-time consistent role give Profar a chance to better succeed in his second season?
Well, that was a good question ...
Q: What do you make of Khris Davis and his crazy HR/FB rate (28.9 percent) from last season? And if regression is inevitable, what should be expected from him?
Extra outfielder for me. I don't think he has anywhere near that kind of power, nor does he have the plate discipline to profile as an everyday bat in a corner outfield spot. More than half of his hits off lefties last year were home runs, and that won't continue. He might be an average defender in left, but that home run rate is going to plummet -- I don't think he'd hit more than 15 in a full season. And you can bet he's going to see many more breaking balls in 2014, after swinging at and missing more of them than he managed to put in play last year.
Q: Kole Calhoun has become a trendy sleeper, with his on-base ability potentially making him the Angels’ leadoff man. Can he build off what he showed last season?
I love his approach at the plate -- I think he's like a poor man's Adam Eaton, and I mean that as a compliment. He could post a .360 OBP over a full season with 15-20 homers, and unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters he's never shown any real platoon split. I was always too light on him as a prospect, both when he was at Arizona State and in the low minors.
Q: Evan Gattis seemed to be a different player in the first half than he was in the second half. Which version is for real, and will he get lots of at-bats?
It wasn't even first-half/second-half; it was first-week/everything-after. Gattis can't hit right-handed pitching, and he can't catch. He's a very useful bench piece because he can be your backup or emergency catcher, pinch-hitter versus lefties, and fake left field or (I assume) first base, but he shouldn't be playing every day when his only tool is power and his OBP will be too low to support that.
I imagine that Atlanta pitchers will be asking for a better receiver after a few weeks -- and, lo and behold, Christian Bethancourt, an elite defensive catching prospect, is going to be right there in Triple-A Gwinnett County.
Q: Billy Hamilton: Can he hit enough to do the job?
[+] EnlargeBilly Hamilton
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
If Hamilton can't drive pitches inside he will be exploited.
Pitchers are going to pound him inside with fastballs and try to exploit his lack of hand strength, and I think they're right to do so. He may not be Ben Revere, but if Revere has grade-20 power, Hamilton might only have 30, and it's hard to hit in the majors when you can't drive stuff on the inner half.
Q: Yasiel Puig: Fantasy superstar or serious candidate for the sophomore slump?
He can't live up to that debut month again, but I don't doubt that he can hit or that he has unusual opposite-field power.
Q: Jose Abreu: Scouts have suggested a range as wide as him being a low-average, big-power type like Pedro Alvarez; a higher-average, modest-power type like Yoenis Cespedes; or perhaps just a fringe big league regular. Which is it?
None of the above. I think he'll be better than Alvarez, hitting for more average with maybe a little less power, and I was shocked by how well he moved around at first base when I saw him this spring -- which might matter to fantasy players in that I don't think he's going to end up at DH. He has a good swing, short to the ball, nice follow-through, strong build for power ... if he doesn't hit 25 homers in that homer-friendly home ballpark, I'd be disappointed.
Q: There was a lot of debate about Matt Adams during the fantasy summit. Some see him as a big run producer who’ll be part of the reason the Cards don’t need to get Oscar Taveras to the majors; others see him as no better than a platoon guy due to his inability to hit lefties. Et tu, Keith?
Platoon guy in the long run. Good short-term solution while they get Taveras healthy and raking.
Q: Jean Segura looked like a top-five shortstop for the first half of last season. In fact, he led the Player Rater for quite a while. But his second half was almost as bad as his first half was good. We’re splitting the difference and making him a borderline top-10 shortstop, ahead of guys like J.J Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Andrelton Simmons, Jed Lowrie and Jimmy Rollins. Are we too high or too low?
He doesn't have the power he showed in the first month and a half of last season, when he hit seven homers by May 15; after that date, he hit just five homers and drew just 15 walks, and I think the latter was also a factor behind the former.
But he doesn't have a power swing at all -- he's a contact guy, low walks and low strikeouts, boosted by his running speed. He jumped on some fastballs early in the season, and I think word got around pretty quickly, but more than anything else I just don't buy his swing as one that will produce double-digit home runs.
Q: LaTroy Hawkins enters the season as the Rockies' closer, but his manager is already talking about giving Rex Brothers situational saves. We have Brothers ranked several rounds ahead of Hawkins, but behind some shaky closers like Jim Henderson, the unproven Nate Jones and on-again, off-again closer John Axford. Which guy are we too low on, Hawkins or Brothers?
Brothers, I guess, although I can't say I'm sanguine about either guy's prospects in Coors Field. That's just such a brutal environment for pitchers that I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy into non-elite arms there. I do buy Jorge De La Rosa as a starter there, and I think, given time, top prospects Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler will succeed as Rockies, but Brothers is a tier below those guys.
Q: R.A. Dickey: Was last season’s first half all about the bad back, or were the Jays sold a bill of goods when they traded for their "ace"?
When you figure out how to scout a knuckleballer, let me know. Please.
If he's healthy he'll produce, and his injuries have never been of the chronic variety.
Q: Starlin Castro killed his owners last season, some of whom will not take a chance on him again this season. But he’s still so young. If he can overcome his hammy issues, is he poised to bounce back?
I don't think he's "poised" to bounce back, and the hamstring never struck me as a valid explanation for what went wrong with him as he's not much of a runner. His approach stinks -- his plate discipline is bad, and his mental plan at the plate does not exist. The best concrete reason I could see to hope for a rebound is the change in managers; I've heard that Dale Sveum and Castro were simply not on the same page, and the Cubs hope that Rick Renteria, who is bilingual and has a very different temperament from Sveum, can get through to Starlin.
The other reason would be that Castro posted a career-worst BABIP last year and that he never at any point projected as a below-average BABIP guy. If anything, I would have guessed he'd be a high-BABIP, low-walk guy who posted decent OBPs because he'd make a ton of contact, but his contact rate last year was also the worst of his career. Betting on a return to the .310-.320 BABIP range seems realistic; betting on a return to where he was in 2010-11, while certainly possible, seems optimistic.
Q: Which is the real Brandon Belt?
The version we saw from late April on last year, after Bruce Bochy helped solidify Belt's swing and got him to keep his weight back consistently. I've always been a believer.
Q: Young middle infield prospects, Xander Bogaerts and Jurickson Profar, seem to find one owner who likes them to be very good this year. Will a full-time consistent role give Profar a chance to better succeed in his second season?
Well, that was a good question ...
Q: What do you make of Khris Davis and his crazy HR/FB rate (28.9 percent) from last season? And if regression is inevitable, what should be expected from him?
Extra outfielder for me. I don't think he has anywhere near that kind of power, nor does he have the plate discipline to profile as an everyday bat in a corner outfield spot. More than half of his hits off lefties last year were home runs, and that won't continue. He might be an average defender in left, but that home run rate is going to plummet -- I don't think he'd hit more than 15 in a full season. And you can bet he's going to see many more breaking balls in 2014, after swinging at and missing more of them than he managed to put in play last year.
Q: Kole Calhoun has become a trendy sleeper, with his on-base ability potentially making him the Angels’ leadoff man. Can he build off what he showed last season?
I love his approach at the plate -- I think he's like a poor man's Adam Eaton, and I mean that as a compliment. He could post a .360 OBP over a full season with 15-20 homers, and unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters he's never shown any real platoon split. I was always too light on him as a prospect, both when he was at Arizona State and in the low minors.
Q: Evan Gattis seemed to be a different player in the first half than he was in the second half. Which version is for real, and will he get lots of at-bats?
It wasn't even first-half/second-half; it was first-week/everything-after. Gattis can't hit right-handed pitching, and he can't catch. He's a very useful bench piece because he can be your backup or emergency catcher, pinch-hitter versus lefties, and fake left field or (I assume) first base, but he shouldn't be playing every day when his only tool is power and his OBP will be too low to support that.
I imagine that Atlanta pitchers will be asking for a better receiver after a few weeks -- and, lo and behold, Christian Bethancourt, an elite defensive catching prospect, is going to be right there in Triple-A Gwinnett County.
Q: Billy Hamilton: Can he hit enough to do the job?
[+] EnlargeBilly Hamilton
Jamie Sabau/Getty Images
If Hamilton can't drive pitches inside he will be exploited.
Pitchers are going to pound him inside with fastballs and try to exploit his lack of hand strength, and I think they're right to do so. He may not be Ben Revere, but if Revere has grade-20 power, Hamilton might only have 30, and it's hard to hit in the majors when you can't drive stuff on the inner half.
Q: Yasiel Puig: Fantasy superstar or serious candidate for the sophomore slump?
He can't live up to that debut month again, but I don't doubt that he can hit or that he has unusual opposite-field power.
Q: Jose Abreu: Scouts have suggested a range as wide as him being a low-average, big-power type like Pedro Alvarez; a higher-average, modest-power type like Yoenis Cespedes; or perhaps just a fringe big league regular. Which is it?
None of the above. I think he'll be better than Alvarez, hitting for more average with maybe a little less power, and I was shocked by how well he moved around at first base when I saw him this spring -- which might matter to fantasy players in that I don't think he's going to end up at DH. He has a good swing, short to the ball, nice follow-through, strong build for power ... if he doesn't hit 25 homers in that homer-friendly home ballpark, I'd be disappointed.
Q: There was a lot of debate about Matt Adams during the fantasy summit. Some see him as a big run producer who’ll be part of the reason the Cards don’t need to get Oscar Taveras to the majors; others see him as no better than a platoon guy due to his inability to hit lefties. Et tu, Keith?
Platoon guy in the long run. Good short-term solution while they get Taveras healthy and raking.
Q: Jean Segura looked like a top-five shortstop for the first half of last season. In fact, he led the Player Rater for quite a while. But his second half was almost as bad as his first half was good. We’re splitting the difference and making him a borderline top-10 shortstop, ahead of guys like J.J Hardy, Asdrubal Cabrera, Andrelton Simmons, Jed Lowrie and Jimmy Rollins. Are we too high or too low?
He doesn't have the power he showed in the first month and a half of last season, when he hit seven homers by May 15; after that date, he hit just five homers and drew just 15 walks, and I think the latter was also a factor behind the former.
But he doesn't have a power swing at all -- he's a contact guy, low walks and low strikeouts, boosted by his running speed. He jumped on some fastballs early in the season, and I think word got around pretty quickly, but more than anything else I just don't buy his swing as one that will produce double-digit home runs.
Q: LaTroy Hawkins enters the season as the Rockies' closer, but his manager is already talking about giving Rex Brothers situational saves. We have Brothers ranked several rounds ahead of Hawkins, but behind some shaky closers like Jim Henderson, the unproven Nate Jones and on-again, off-again closer John Axford. Which guy are we too low on, Hawkins or Brothers?
Brothers, I guess, although I can't say I'm sanguine about either guy's prospects in Coors Field. That's just such a brutal environment for pitchers that I wouldn't encourage anyone to buy into non-elite arms there. I do buy Jorge De La Rosa as a starter there, and I think, given time, top prospects Jonathan Gray and Eddie Butler will succeed as Rockies, but Brothers is a tier below those guys.
Q: R.A. Dickey: Was last season’s first half all about the bad back, or were the Jays sold a bill of goods when they traded for their "ace"?
When you figure out how to scout a knuckleballer, let me know. Please.
The 'Perfect' Draft: Think balance early.
Between myriad mock drafts, a few random and planned explorations into the mock draft lobby, and a few real ones that will be played out, I'm already well into double digits in ESPN leagues for March alone. While I've felt differing degrees of satisfaction, or occasionally lack thereof, when trying a new strategy, the fact is I have yet to have what I would call a "perfect draft." That makes sense, considering that in each of these drafts, others are selecting players, as well, and some of them are wise and well aware of my personal strategies and/or the names I've touted as sleepers and busts.
Regardless, I thought I'd try something we do prior to the football season, which is to construct the perfect draft. To do this, I use current ESPN live draft results as basically the lone rule and draft as if I'm competing in one of ESPN's 10-team standard leagues and everyone else is going by the book. Also, though I would almost always prefer the first or last pick in this league setup, I'll change it up and select in the middle of each round. You might not agree that a certain player would be available for me to take, but going strictly by ESPN ADP, they should be. I'm not bothering to calculate projected standings because my personal numbers wouldn't match yours or what's in the system, but I will say this team should project very well no matter what projections are used. Plus, the goal isn't to win the projected standings; it's to win the real standings, and we'll all pick up saves and injury replacements during the season!
[+] EnlargeCarlos Gonzalez
AP Photo/Jack Dempsey
Carlos Gonzalez played in only 110 games last season, yet still managed to finish 32nd overall on the ESPN Player Rater.
Round 1: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies If I get the fifth pick, which is the first one an owner must do some thinking about since Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt are a clear top four, I'm passing on the awesome Clayton Kershaw, who is currently fifth in ADP, for Gonzalez. There were nine players who hit 20 or more home runs and stole 20 or more bases last season, and CarGo has achieved this feat four consecutive seasons while hitting better than .300 along the way. He'll do so again.
Round 2: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers It's always better to avoid the one-trick stolen base ponies when one can select five-tool fantasy hitting options. We shouldn't expect Braun to go 30/30 again, but he's a steal late in the second round since I don't believe he'll have a major drop-off because of, well, not taking "you know what." I also considered Bryce Harper here, as well. He's just as safe … or unsafe, I suppose, if you're generally pessimistic.
Round 3: Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals Here's another 20/20 guy and the lone middle infielder. At this rate, I won't need to draft any Ben Revere types, which is awesome because any hitter who doesn't provide power is a weakness. If everyone hits for power and enough people run, victory is mine! Well, I suppose I'll need some pitching, too …
Round 4: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers It's always wise to secure an ace, and he's one of the 12 or so. Yeah, I'm now buying him over Madison Bumgarner and Jose Fernandez. But based on your preferences, you can go ahead and take one of those two instead of Verlander. Either way, now would be the time to get an ace.
Round 5: David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: He finished in the top 20 on our Player Rater last season, and I see no reason why it can't happen again. By the way, you're not clogging your utility slot with Big Papi. You clog it when you spend that Round 20-something pick on Lucas Duda. This perfect team has already reached more than 100 projected home runs and is safe enough in batting average that it can afford a B.J. Upton-type later. (Not that I'll be taking Upton, of course.)
Round 6: Allen Craig, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals I see a .300/22/95 season even if he misses 30 games. Even if he serves a DL stint, I'll easily add another short-term first baseman. In 10-team formats, it's not a problem. Nothing against Adrian Gonzalez, but he produces about the same as Craig, but in 160 games. Craig goes later and supplies his stats in less time, which has value.
Round 7: Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals He's simply underrated. Holliday finished last season 33rd on the Player Rater, and still hits for power and average. I know, I know, he's getting older. Hey, aren't we all?
Round 8: Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals I do concede that it's dangerous to spend nine of your first 10 picks on hitters. Here's another fellow capable of whiffing 200 hitters and his team will be very good. Just look at that abysmal NL East after the Nats and Braves.
Round 9: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates I've come around a bit on him. Only two hitters managed to hit more home runs last season, and they're going in the first round. Go ahead, Pedro, hit .230. Just hit those 36 home runs again.
Round 10: Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks I'm willing to reach a bit here related to his ADP because I view Hill as a top-100 guy. Well, at least when he's healthy.
Round 11: Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays You can call me a believer.
Round 12: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers Also underrated. This is why we can wait on starting pitchers after securing an anchor or two. Feel free to substitute Julio Teheran in this spot. I love 'em both.
[+] EnlargeCole Hamels
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
Cole Hamels' shoulder troubles allows him to be had at a bargain.
Round 13: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies He's missing April, but really, this shoulder ailment appears minor and nothing to worry about. Hamels would have gone in the top 50 overall if healthy, and he's slipped more than eight rounds because he figures to miss five or six starts. Think about the foolishness of that for a minute.
Round 14: Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago Cubs I could start drafting saves, but why not get the last of the 200-strikeout guys while we can? This right-hander should be going five rounds earlier, and the rotation I've chosen can afford his WHIP.
Round 15: Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants Yeah, again. Even if the adjustments that led to a big September last year aren't harbingers -- I think they are -- he's a safe corner option capable of hitting for more average and power. Alfonso Soriano a round earlier might be the better choice, though.
Round 16: Casey Janssen, RP, Toronto Blue Jays Wouldn't be surprised by a DL stint at some point, and he's hardly the most overworked closer, but 30 saves and solid numbers are pending.
Round 17: Xander Bogaerts, 3B, Boston Red Sox Tough to resist the eventual AL Rookie of the Year this late. I see at least 15 home runs, by the way, and if I need him at middle infield, he'll be eligible there in a few weeks.
Round 18: Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins Nice bargain this late, and really, while it's fine for people to annually predict which closers will get dealt and turn into setup men, it happens so rarely that it should never affect draft position.
Round 19: Dan Haren, SP, Dodgers Yeah, Haren allowed another home run while I was typing this, but seriously, he should see a reduction of them in Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile, there's nothing wrong with his WHIP and strikeout rate.
Round 20: Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins I actually view him as relatively safe for batting average, steals and runs scored, and it's important to balance any team with older fellows and younger upside ones.
Round 21: Jonathan Villar, SS, Houston Astros He's not safe for batting average and there's no power, but he's going to play and run a lot. And if he doesn't, Bogaerts can replace him, and I can easily pick up a corner infielder.
Round 22: Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves He's legit, and there really couldn't be more opportunity for him. I'm also fine with Chris Archer, Ivan Nova and Yordano Ventura in this range, too.
Round 23: Joakim Soria, RP, Texas Rangers He won the job over Neftali Feliz, and I don't see him relinquishing it. Enjoy 30 saves. If you think this is cheating because the news came out two days ago and his ADP is about to skyrocket, then insert Jose Veras or LaTroy Hawkins instead. They should each earn 15-plus saves.
Round 24: Dillon Gee, SP, New York Mets The last of the 76 starting pitchers being selected in ESPN ADP, it's not relevant that he's starting Opening Day. It is relevant that he keeps improving and projects nicely. Hopefully he can earn 12 wins. And yes, all three of my bench options are starting pitchers with upside. If a hitter gets injured, the worst pitcher can be sent packing.
Round 25: Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians For now, we still don't know how much, or if at all, Carlos Santana will play third base. But Gomes is going to hit and play enough. Remember, in ESPN leagues, each team needs only one catcher. Frankly, the likes of Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Miguel Montero should still be available in the last round since no team needs a backup with this depth, but sticking with ADP, Gomes is good.
Regardless, I thought I'd try something we do prior to the football season, which is to construct the perfect draft. To do this, I use current ESPN live draft results as basically the lone rule and draft as if I'm competing in one of ESPN's 10-team standard leagues and everyone else is going by the book. Also, though I would almost always prefer the first or last pick in this league setup, I'll change it up and select in the middle of each round. You might not agree that a certain player would be available for me to take, but going strictly by ESPN ADP, they should be. I'm not bothering to calculate projected standings because my personal numbers wouldn't match yours or what's in the system, but I will say this team should project very well no matter what projections are used. Plus, the goal isn't to win the projected standings; it's to win the real standings, and we'll all pick up saves and injury replacements during the season!
[+] EnlargeCarlos Gonzalez
AP Photo/Jack Dempsey
Carlos Gonzalez played in only 110 games last season, yet still managed to finish 32nd overall on the ESPN Player Rater.
Round 1: Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Colorado Rockies If I get the fifth pick, which is the first one an owner must do some thinking about since Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Andrew McCutchen and Paul Goldschmidt are a clear top four, I'm passing on the awesome Clayton Kershaw, who is currently fifth in ADP, for Gonzalez. There were nine players who hit 20 or more home runs and stole 20 or more bases last season, and CarGo has achieved this feat four consecutive seasons while hitting better than .300 along the way. He'll do so again.
Round 2: Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers It's always better to avoid the one-trick stolen base ponies when one can select five-tool fantasy hitting options. We shouldn't expect Braun to go 30/30 again, but he's a steal late in the second round since I don't believe he'll have a major drop-off because of, well, not taking "you know what." I also considered Bryce Harper here, as well. He's just as safe … or unsafe, I suppose, if you're generally pessimistic.
Round 3: Ian Desmond, SS, Washington Nationals Here's another 20/20 guy and the lone middle infielder. At this rate, I won't need to draft any Ben Revere types, which is awesome because any hitter who doesn't provide power is a weakness. If everyone hits for power and enough people run, victory is mine! Well, I suppose I'll need some pitching, too …
Round 4: Justin Verlander, SP, Detroit Tigers It's always wise to secure an ace, and he's one of the 12 or so. Yeah, I'm now buying him over Madison Bumgarner and Jose Fernandez. But based on your preferences, you can go ahead and take one of those two instead of Verlander. Either way, now would be the time to get an ace.
Round 5: David Ortiz, DH, Boston Red Sox: He finished in the top 20 on our Player Rater last season, and I see no reason why it can't happen again. By the way, you're not clogging your utility slot with Big Papi. You clog it when you spend that Round 20-something pick on Lucas Duda. This perfect team has already reached more than 100 projected home runs and is safe enough in batting average that it can afford a B.J. Upton-type later. (Not that I'll be taking Upton, of course.)
Round 6: Allen Craig, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals I see a .300/22/95 season even if he misses 30 games. Even if he serves a DL stint, I'll easily add another short-term first baseman. In 10-team formats, it's not a problem. Nothing against Adrian Gonzalez, but he produces about the same as Craig, but in 160 games. Craig goes later and supplies his stats in less time, which has value.
Round 7: Matt Holliday, OF, Cardinals He's simply underrated. Holliday finished last season 33rd on the Player Rater, and still hits for power and average. I know, I know, he's getting older. Hey, aren't we all?
Round 8: Gio Gonzalez, SP, Nationals I do concede that it's dangerous to spend nine of your first 10 picks on hitters. Here's another fellow capable of whiffing 200 hitters and his team will be very good. Just look at that abysmal NL East after the Nats and Braves.
Round 9: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates I've come around a bit on him. Only two hitters managed to hit more home runs last season, and they're going in the first round. Go ahead, Pedro, hit .230. Just hit those 36 home runs again.
Round 10: Aaron Hill, 2B, Arizona Diamondbacks I'm willing to reach a bit here related to his ADP because I view Hill as a top-100 guy. Well, at least when he's healthy.
Round 11: Alex Cobb, SP, Tampa Bay Rays You can call me a believer.
Round 12: Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers Also underrated. This is why we can wait on starting pitchers after securing an anchor or two. Feel free to substitute Julio Teheran in this spot. I love 'em both.
[+] EnlargeCole Hamels
AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall
Cole Hamels' shoulder troubles allows him to be had at a bargain.
Round 13: Cole Hamels, SP, Philadelphia Phillies He's missing April, but really, this shoulder ailment appears minor and nothing to worry about. Hamels would have gone in the top 50 overall if healthy, and he's slipped more than eight rounds because he figures to miss five or six starts. Think about the foolishness of that for a minute.
Round 14: Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago Cubs I could start drafting saves, but why not get the last of the 200-strikeout guys while we can? This right-hander should be going five rounds earlier, and the rotation I've chosen can afford his WHIP.
Round 15: Brandon Belt, 1B, San Francisco Giants Yeah, again. Even if the adjustments that led to a big September last year aren't harbingers -- I think they are -- he's a safe corner option capable of hitting for more average and power. Alfonso Soriano a round earlier might be the better choice, though.
Round 16: Casey Janssen, RP, Toronto Blue Jays Wouldn't be surprised by a DL stint at some point, and he's hardly the most overworked closer, but 30 saves and solid numbers are pending.
Round 17: Xander Bogaerts, 3B, Boston Red Sox Tough to resist the eventual AL Rookie of the Year this late. I see at least 15 home runs, by the way, and if I need him at middle infield, he'll be eligible there in a few weeks.
Round 18: Steve Cishek, RP, Miami Marlins Nice bargain this late, and really, while it's fine for people to annually predict which closers will get dealt and turn into setup men, it happens so rarely that it should never affect draft position.
Round 19: Dan Haren, SP, Dodgers Yeah, Haren allowed another home run while I was typing this, but seriously, he should see a reduction of them in Dodger Stadium. Meanwhile, there's nothing wrong with his WHIP and strikeout rate.
Round 20: Christian Yelich, OF, Marlins I actually view him as relatively safe for batting average, steals and runs scored, and it's important to balance any team with older fellows and younger upside ones.
Round 21: Jonathan Villar, SS, Houston Astros He's not safe for batting average and there's no power, but he's going to play and run a lot. And if he doesn't, Bogaerts can replace him, and I can easily pick up a corner infielder.
Round 22: Alex Wood, SP, Atlanta Braves He's legit, and there really couldn't be more opportunity for him. I'm also fine with Chris Archer, Ivan Nova and Yordano Ventura in this range, too.
Round 23: Joakim Soria, RP, Texas Rangers He won the job over Neftali Feliz, and I don't see him relinquishing it. Enjoy 30 saves. If you think this is cheating because the news came out two days ago and his ADP is about to skyrocket, then insert Jose Veras or LaTroy Hawkins instead. They should each earn 15-plus saves.
Round 24: Dillon Gee, SP, New York Mets The last of the 76 starting pitchers being selected in ESPN ADP, it's not relevant that he's starting Opening Day. It is relevant that he keeps improving and projects nicely. Hopefully he can earn 12 wins. And yes, all three of my bench options are starting pitchers with upside. If a hitter gets injured, the worst pitcher can be sent packing.
Round 25: Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians For now, we still don't know how much, or if at all, Carlos Santana will play third base. But Gomes is going to hit and play enough. Remember, in ESPN leagues, each team needs only one catcher. Frankly, the likes of Jason Castro, Evan Gattis and Miguel Montero should still be available in the last round since no team needs a backup with this depth, but sticking with ADP, Gomes is good.
Stock Watch: Soria up, Profar down.
Mondays tend to be a tough day for many folks, as they signal the end of the fun weekend and start of the not-so-fun work week. Well, my work week is still fun and I have some good news: This is the last Monday sans regular-season baseball until the All-Star break! That's right, spend some time with your significant other doing whatever, but from here on out the first day of the week will feature baseball, baseball and more baseball. This is a good thing. I'd say stock is rising on the approaching season!
With much weekend news to analyze, here’s another Stock Watch. The opening series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks is discussed in another blog entry.
Stock rising
[+] EnlargeJoakim Soria
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
Joakim Soria becomes a far more interesting player now that he's been named the Rangers closer.
• Joakim Soria, RP, Texas Rangers: Well, here’s your closer. For some reason fellow right-hander Neftali Feliz could find neither his velocity nor command and now he’s not a lock to even make the team’s bullpen. He does have minor league options. Don’t bother drafting him at all. Right-hander Alexi Ogando is the handcuff for saves here. Soria has thrown well and he has closer experience, which matters to managers like Ron Washington. Frankly, I don’t see Soria relinquishing the role; I won’t rank him among the top 10 closers, but where Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Casey Janssen are going in the 15-20 range among closers (Rounds 15-1
, you bet! There’s more Rangers news later, but one more thing: I wouldn’t rely on No. 5 starter Tanner Scheppers, but as late-round, AL-only risks go, might as well take a chance. The team will score runs and Scheppers has thrown well. That said, 25 starts, ERA around 4.25 is my best-case scenario.
• Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington Nationals: Hey, remember this guy? Espinosa used to be an intriguing fantasy option, with a 21-homer, 17-steal season in 2011, and he followed up with a 17-homer, 20-steal campaign. He wasn’t winning batting titles, but middle infielders with 20/20 potential are valuable. Espinosa's 2013 season went nowhere, thanks to some degree to wrist and shoulder problems, but now he's back and the team claims with better plate discipline. Meanwhile, Anthony Rendon seems a tad overrated to me in drafts, which is to say he might not deserve to be chosen at all in 10-team formats. The power isn't there yet and he's hitting eighth in an NL lineup, which means more pitching around than normal. Plus, Espinosa homered twice Saturday and could still win a starting job that the team says is open. Ultimately I see Rendon starting, but would it shock anyone if Ryan Zimmerman moves over to first base and Rendon handles his more regular third base slot, with a healthy Espinosa becoming relevant again? I don't see anyone discussing Espinosa. Who knows, the Nationals and Detroit Tigers have made deals before (and recently). Just keep an open mind here.
• Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds: No, this is not me ripping speedy Billy Hamilton again. Heisey, however, continues to mash this spring, with six home runs, and it's not as though Ryan Ludwick is Barry Bonds over there in left field. Heisey delivered an 18-homer season in 2011, but has hit only 16 since. He's never seen 400 at-bats in a season, though. Heisey is allergic to drawing walks and no longer a factor stealing bases, but one should never dismiss the potential for late-developing power. Plus, with Ludwick having missed most of 2013 and looking a bit shot this spring, spending a late pick on Heisey in NL-only formats seems wise. Incidentally, in other Reds news, the fill-in closer for injured Aroldis Chapman was not named, and might not be for a while. It's a committee, so we're told. I'd still take right-hander J.J. Hoover first, though, but not among the top 30 relievers in a mixed format. In fact, I probably wouldn’t waste the pick in a 10-team mixed at all.
Stock falling
• Jurickson Profar, 2B, Rangers: At least we have clarity now, and it's not good. In fact, I'd argue Profar goes from being a 16th-round selection in current ADP and one of my sleepers -- and I wasn't alone -- to flat-out not worth being drafted at all now because he's out perhaps half the season with a tear in his throwing shoulder. Could he matter in the second half of the season? Of course he could. Profar brings an intriguing middle infield blend of power and speed -- not Mike Trout upside, but perhaps 15 homers and steals -- and unless the Rangers make a trade, it's hard to see any of the current options holding him off. But who can wait three months in a league with three bench spots? If you've already drafted Profar and don't have anyone in the DL slot, try to wait, but even then, chances are you'll have a more valuable option that needs to be held. It's a shame, but move on.
• Josh Johnson, SP, San Diego Padres: OK, I've had enough. I'm through. I know we shouldn't ever dismiss anyone as a potential option, but I just can't think positive any longer on this brittle guy, even though his stuff is often legit and the home ballpark is about as favorable as can be. Johnson, a popular sleeper for many, has a flexor strain in his pitching forearm, and will be out at least a month. This is after an injured forearm ruined his 2013, holding him to 16 mostly terrible starts (6.20 ERA). So I'm done considering him worth drafting, and will consider reassessing in May if he's healthy and throwing well, I suppose. Plus, right-handed prospect Matt Wisler, only 21 and having skipped Triple-A, is going to win the job and keep it, I predict. It's also possible lefty Robbie Erlin takes the role, because he made nine starts for the Padres last year and didn't embarrass himself, but Wisler is the superior prospect long-term. By the way, I'm not entirely giving up on right-hander Joe Wieland yet, but his elbow is barking and he’ll miss a few months, if not more.
• Carlos Martinez, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: There has to be regression for right-hander Joe Kelly based on 2013 numbers, as the hard-throwing right-hander is really unlikely to earn another 2.69 ERA if it comes with a 1.35 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, not like Martinez, the fellow he beat out for the No. 5 rotation spot. This wasn’t surprising news, really. Yes, I’ll take Martinez in a keeper format, as we should bet on skills, not roles long-term. Perhaps each makes more than 15 starts this season. However, I see Martinez setting up closer Trevor Rosenthal this year, so to me he’s not worth it in a 10-team redraft format. Kelly really isn’t either, but we have clarity and it wouldn’t shock me if he makes 30 starts and wins half, with an ERA around 4. That’s not terrible, either, I suppose, and it’s worth more in fantasy than Martinez throwing 70 good relief innings, getting four wins and two saves. Anyway, also announced as a fifth starter over the weekend was Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, while Minnesota Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson and Cleveland Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco could get the nod any day now. I’ll take Odorizzi first.
With much weekend news to analyze, here’s another Stock Watch. The opening series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks is discussed in another blog entry.
Stock rising
[+] EnlargeJoakim Soria
Ed Zurga/Getty Images
Joakim Soria becomes a far more interesting player now that he's been named the Rangers closer.
• Joakim Soria, RP, Texas Rangers: Well, here’s your closer. For some reason fellow right-hander Neftali Feliz could find neither his velocity nor command and now he’s not a lock to even make the team’s bullpen. He does have minor league options. Don’t bother drafting him at all. Right-hander Alexi Ogando is the handcuff for saves here. Soria has thrown well and he has closer experience, which matters to managers like Ron Washington. Frankly, I don’t see Soria relinquishing the role; I won’t rank him among the top 10 closers, but where Rafael Soriano, Grant Balfour and Casey Janssen are going in the 15-20 range among closers (Rounds 15-1
, you bet! There’s more Rangers news later, but one more thing: I wouldn’t rely on No. 5 starter Tanner Scheppers, but as late-round, AL-only risks go, might as well take a chance. The team will score runs and Scheppers has thrown well. That said, 25 starts, ERA around 4.25 is my best-case scenario.• Danny Espinosa, 2B, Washington Nationals: Hey, remember this guy? Espinosa used to be an intriguing fantasy option, with a 21-homer, 17-steal season in 2011, and he followed up with a 17-homer, 20-steal campaign. He wasn’t winning batting titles, but middle infielders with 20/20 potential are valuable. Espinosa's 2013 season went nowhere, thanks to some degree to wrist and shoulder problems, but now he's back and the team claims with better plate discipline. Meanwhile, Anthony Rendon seems a tad overrated to me in drafts, which is to say he might not deserve to be chosen at all in 10-team formats. The power isn't there yet and he's hitting eighth in an NL lineup, which means more pitching around than normal. Plus, Espinosa homered twice Saturday and could still win a starting job that the team says is open. Ultimately I see Rendon starting, but would it shock anyone if Ryan Zimmerman moves over to first base and Rendon handles his more regular third base slot, with a healthy Espinosa becoming relevant again? I don't see anyone discussing Espinosa. Who knows, the Nationals and Detroit Tigers have made deals before (and recently). Just keep an open mind here.
• Chris Heisey, OF, Cincinnati Reds: No, this is not me ripping speedy Billy Hamilton again. Heisey, however, continues to mash this spring, with six home runs, and it's not as though Ryan Ludwick is Barry Bonds over there in left field. Heisey delivered an 18-homer season in 2011, but has hit only 16 since. He's never seen 400 at-bats in a season, though. Heisey is allergic to drawing walks and no longer a factor stealing bases, but one should never dismiss the potential for late-developing power. Plus, with Ludwick having missed most of 2013 and looking a bit shot this spring, spending a late pick on Heisey in NL-only formats seems wise. Incidentally, in other Reds news, the fill-in closer for injured Aroldis Chapman was not named, and might not be for a while. It's a committee, so we're told. I'd still take right-hander J.J. Hoover first, though, but not among the top 30 relievers in a mixed format. In fact, I probably wouldn’t waste the pick in a 10-team mixed at all.
Stock falling
• Jurickson Profar, 2B, Rangers: At least we have clarity now, and it's not good. In fact, I'd argue Profar goes from being a 16th-round selection in current ADP and one of my sleepers -- and I wasn't alone -- to flat-out not worth being drafted at all now because he's out perhaps half the season with a tear in his throwing shoulder. Could he matter in the second half of the season? Of course he could. Profar brings an intriguing middle infield blend of power and speed -- not Mike Trout upside, but perhaps 15 homers and steals -- and unless the Rangers make a trade, it's hard to see any of the current options holding him off. But who can wait three months in a league with three bench spots? If you've already drafted Profar and don't have anyone in the DL slot, try to wait, but even then, chances are you'll have a more valuable option that needs to be held. It's a shame, but move on.
• Josh Johnson, SP, San Diego Padres: OK, I've had enough. I'm through. I know we shouldn't ever dismiss anyone as a potential option, but I just can't think positive any longer on this brittle guy, even though his stuff is often legit and the home ballpark is about as favorable as can be. Johnson, a popular sleeper for many, has a flexor strain in his pitching forearm, and will be out at least a month. This is after an injured forearm ruined his 2013, holding him to 16 mostly terrible starts (6.20 ERA). So I'm done considering him worth drafting, and will consider reassessing in May if he's healthy and throwing well, I suppose. Plus, right-handed prospect Matt Wisler, only 21 and having skipped Triple-A, is going to win the job and keep it, I predict. It's also possible lefty Robbie Erlin takes the role, because he made nine starts for the Padres last year and didn't embarrass himself, but Wisler is the superior prospect long-term. By the way, I'm not entirely giving up on right-hander Joe Wieland yet, but his elbow is barking and he’ll miss a few months, if not more.
• Carlos Martinez, RP, St. Louis Cardinals: There has to be regression for right-hander Joe Kelly based on 2013 numbers, as the hard-throwing right-hander is really unlikely to earn another 2.69 ERA if it comes with a 1.35 WHIP. He’s not a big strikeout guy, not like Martinez, the fellow he beat out for the No. 5 rotation spot. This wasn’t surprising news, really. Yes, I’ll take Martinez in a keeper format, as we should bet on skills, not roles long-term. Perhaps each makes more than 15 starts this season. However, I see Martinez setting up closer Trevor Rosenthal this year, so to me he’s not worth it in a 10-team redraft format. Kelly really isn’t either, but we have clarity and it wouldn’t shock me if he makes 30 starts and wins half, with an ERA around 4. That’s not terrible, either, I suppose, and it’s worth more in fantasy than Martinez throwing 70 good relief innings, getting four wins and two saves. Anyway, also announced as a fifth starter over the weekend was Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Jake Odorizzi, while Minnesota Twins right-hander Kyle Gibson and Cleveland Indians right-hander Carlos Carrasco could get the nod any day now. I’ll take Odorizzi first.
