OFFICIAL 2014 FANTASY BASEBALL THREAD

venom lyrix

venom lyrix

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Welcome Back Folks!

Fantasy Baseball season is upon us. Drafts should be getting ready soon...so lets get the information spreading.

Those interested in another NT league, I'm considering opening a $100 buy in (all $ secured with LeagueSafe) possibly a keeper league. If you are interested please PM me.

I'll be posting and sharing a ton of info over the next few months upon March 22nd first pitch of the 2014 regular season in Australia.
 
Stolen Base Sleepers (Rant Sports)

In fantasy baseball roto-leagues, stolen bases are one of the most sought after categories. There are only so many players that have true
25-SB potential and the speedsters tend to go pretty early on draft day. To help you identify a couple base stealing sleepers, here are a couple of the most underrated stolen base threats in fantasy.


SS Everth Cabrera, San Diego Padres – Cabrera’s season ended rather abruptly, as the shortstop was served with a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Cabrera still finished with 37 stolen bases in 95 games, though, and the speedster was leading the league in stolen bags before being shutdown for the year. Cabrera will be running all over the infield again in 2014, so expect the underrated stopgap to have no problem hitting the 45-steal mark.


2B Jason Kipnis, Cleveland Indians – Kipnis gains a lot of attention for his bating average and defense, but the second baseman is a threat on the basepath as well. He has stolen 30 or more bases in each of the past two seasons and it just increases his value as a top-tier 2B. Look for him to steal another 30-plus bags next year.



OF Shane Victorino, Boston Red Sox – The departure of OF Jacoby Ellsbury will leave Victorino in charge of being the team’s leadoff hitter and primary run producer. Victorino has 222 stolen bases throughout his tenured career and he has eclipsed the 30-steal plateau four times. If you need a cheap source of steals out of mid-level outfielder, lock onto Victorino this spring.
 
didn't even know this thread existed
laugh.gif
. will be checking this religiously for sleepers/pickups/trades
 
Sleepers from the SportingNews

FIRST BASE

Jose Abreu, White Sox. The 27-year-old “rookie” from Cuba is an unknown quantity, which is about the only thing keeping his draft stock in check (for now). He’s not as flashy as fellow countrymen Yasiel Puig and Yoenis Cespedes, but he is a more polished hitter with the same power upside. Think Kendrys Morales before the broken leg.

Runner-up: Matt Adams, Cardinals. Hit 17 jacks in 296 at-bats last season for a 17.4 AB/HR rate nearly identical to Chris Carter (17.5) (with fewer Ks of course). The only thing standing in his way of 25 homers is the possibility of Adams sitting against lefties.

Deep sleeper: Brandon Belt, Giants. Yes, again. Belt’s strong finish to 2013 should earn him everyday at-bats in the middle of the lineup. He’s not an elite power 1B, but should be a solid corner-infield option.

SECOND BASE

Jurickson Profar, Rangers. Profar, last year’s No. 1 prospect, wasn’t an immediate superstar, which should temper the hype this spring. But he’ll have a starting job at second base with Ian Kinsler gone and still comes with developing talent and tremendous upside in the Rangers lineup. He’s a great post-hype sleeper to gamble on, similar to Manny Machado last year, and comes with the added bonus of 2B/3B/SS flexibility.

Runner-up: Anthony Rendon, Nationals. Another top prospect whose stats didn’t quite match the hype last year. Also like Profar, Rendon comes with multi-position eligibility (2B/3B).

Deep sleeper: Ryan Flaherty, Orioles. At 6-3, 210 pounds, Flaherty is bigger than the average second baseman and hit 10 homers in just 247 at-bats last season. He’s competing for the 2B job this spring.

THIRD BASE

Nolan Arenado, Rockies. Arenado’s 2013 stats don’t jump off the page, but he wasn’t overpowered by major league pitching as a rookie. He was tough to strike out, which was a strength in the minors, and has always racked up doubles. A solid contact hitter with good gap power, Arenado has plenty of upside at Coors Field in a strong Rockies lineup.

Runner-up: Mike Moustakas, Royals. I’m not ready to give up on Moustakas, 25, especially at such a thin position. The advanced stats hint that there was at least a little bad luck last year.

Deep sleeper: Maikel Franco, Phillies. Franco, 21, hit 31 homers between Single- and Double-A last year. He’ll start this season in the minors, but the Phillies could use a third base threat ASAP.

SHORTSTOP

Jonathan Villar, Astros. Villar swiped 18 bases in 58 games with Houston after stealing 31 at Triple-A. He also had 39 steals in 2012 and owns a career 79-percent success rate in the minors. Villar also has some modest power and is listed at 6-1 and around 200 pounds, so an increase in strength, like a beefed-up Jean Segura had last season, wouldn’t be shocking.

Runner-up: Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox. Bogaerts is in danger of becoming overrated, especially since he’ll be starting for the World Champs. Just keep in mind that Bogaerts, 21, has only modest power and never really showed much speed in the minors. Make sure the draft price doesn’t dwarf the upside.

Deep sleeper: Javier Baez, Cubs. This is more of a “long shot” because Baez is likely to spend most, if not all, of the season at Triple-A. The Cubs’ top prospect is coming off a monster season with 37 homers and 20 stolen bases. Starlin Castro is blocking Baez, 21, at short in Chicago (for now), but 2B Darwin Barney and 3B Luis Valbuena are on notice.

CATCHER

Wilson Ramos, Nationals. Ramos’ young career has been slowed by injuries, but he still hit .272-16-59 in just 287 at-bats last season. That 17.9 AB/HR rate was second (barely) to only Brian McCann (17.8) among catchers last year. Now healthy, Ramos is one to watch in a productive Nationals lineup.

Runner-up: Yan Gomes, Indians. The power-hitting Gomes can play a variety of positions and should see more playing time this season, especially if Carlos Santana moves to third base.

Deep sleeper: Devin Mesoraco, Reds. With both Ryan Hanigan and Dusty Baker gone, the former top prospect may finally get a chance at everyday playing time.

DESIGNATED HITTER

Miguel Sano, Twins. Forget that Sano is only 20 and likely doesn’t have a real position in the majors. He has perhaps the best raw power we’ve seen from a prospect since Mike Stanton (remember him?). Sano hit 20 HRs in 267 at-bats in 2011, 28 in 457 ABs in ‘12 and 35 in 439 ABs last year between High-A and Double-A. The 142 Ks last year are a concern, so he’ll have something to work on at Triple-A, but we could see Sano at DH (or maybe third) in Minnesota soon.


OUTFIELD

Billy Hamilton, Reds. Hamilton’s speed may actually trump his inevitable “popular sleeper” tag. He has the potential to rack up 100-plus steals, and if he even sniffs that number, it would be very tough to overdraft him. In Hamilton’s case, the speed matches the hype.

Runner-up: George Springer, Astros. Springer has undeniable power/speed potential after nearly going 40/40 in the minors last year. I’d rather gamble on Hamilton, though, because Springer has a severe strikeout problem, an inferior lineup and zero MLB experience.

Deep sleepers: There’s no shortage of sleepers in the outfield: the Marlins’ Christian Yelich, the Rangers’ Leonys Martin, the Brewers’ Khris Davis, the Twins’ Oswaldo Arcia, the Mets’ Eric Young and the Angels’ Kole Calhoun are just a few who could be popular -- but not too popular -- on draft day. And don’t forget about the White Sox’s Adam Eaton, the Cardinals’ Peter Bourjos and the Cubs’ Junior Lake in the later rounds.

ROTATION

1. Gerrit Cole, Pirates: Can hit triple-digits with his fastball and has great control; a future fantasy ace as soon as this season.

2. Masahiro Tanaka, Yankees: Good fastball, filthy splitter and backed by an improved offense; Yankee Stadium, AL East are concerns, but homers weren’t a problem in Japan.

3. Danny Salazar, Indians: Like Cole, Salazar has a blazing fastball and good control; the Indians will take the training wheels off this year.

4. Carlos Martinez, Cardinals: If Martinez earns a spot in the rotation, he’ll be worth grabbing in the middle to late rounds, a la Shelby Miller last year; another power arm with good control.

5. Kevin Gausman, Orioles: Gausman will also be competing for a rotation spot this spring and comes with huge upside and strikeout potential.

BULLPEN

Closer: Trevor Rosenthal, Cardinals. Despite having just three career saves, Rosenthal will be on everyone’s radar after his dominant postseason performance in the closer’s role. There will be plenty of hype, but we actually project Rosenthal to be an elite fantasy closer this year. Sure, it’s risky, but no closer is without risk.

Runner-up: Nate Jones, White Sox. With Addison Reed gone, Jones and his overpowering fastball figure to get the first crack at closing in Chicago.

Non-closer: Rex Brothers, Rockies. Brothers was dominant in the closer’s role last year, and we’re not banking on fossil LaTroy Hawkins holding up in the ninth inning all year.

Deep sleepers: Joaquin Benoit/Alex Torres, Padres. When looking for a saves sleeper, always look behind Huston Street.
 
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A Look Back: 2013 Second Half Thoughts
Ray Flowers
Feb 21, 2014




Sometimes people loose sight of things. You start dating someone and all of a sudden you miss the fact that someone who has more to offer is flat out hitting on you every day when you go to pick up your latte in the morning. You just don't see it though cause you are otherwise engaged (well at least those of us that have a moral compass do that). We become distracted which causes our focus to shift completely. This happens to many folks in fantasy baseball each year when one of two things happen. (1) Your team sucks so you just give up. (2) You start worrying about your fantasy football squad at mid-season and stop paying close attention to your fantasy baseball team. Admit it. You've fallen into that trap before. I think it's human nature really. Let me help you with that. I don't have a DeLorean to go back in time like Michael J. Fox so I can't fix what happened last season. However, I can point out some rather interesting facts that pertain to the second half of the 2013 baseball season that you might have missed when your focus was elsewhere. Maybe these facts will help you when assessing players for 2014.

NOTE: First and second half splits sometimes receive too much attention. Splits of any kind dealing with time – months, halves etc. – are really nothing more than random end points. Just because Player A was awful in the first half and fantastic in the second half doesn't mean that Player A will be fantastic in 2014. The opposite is also true. If Player B was fantastic at the start of last season and then failed at the end it doesn't automatically mean that he will be a dud in 2014. Basically this entire article is just to point out some cool factoids since a 65 game sample or run of 100 innings doesn't tell the whole story for any player. OK, you got it me. It was just fun to do and not necessarily the end all be all of analysis on players heading into 2014.


PLAYERS

Jedd Gyorko blasted 15 homers in his last 62 games.

Matt Holliday is old and many look past him thinking he's boring. After a slow start last season he finished with a flourish batting .348 with 47 RBIs over 58 games.

Evan Longoria hit .257 over his final 67 games, a terrible mark. At the same time he did hit 14 homers so he was still powering the ball like normal.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .361 batting average. That mark was nearly double that of the man who had the worst mark in baseball – Mitch Moreland (.183). Others who limped to the finish line included: Nick Franklin (.194), Kyle Seager (.212), Mark Trumbo (.218), Anthony Rizzo (.222) and Ichiro Suzuki (.228).

Do you know who led baseball in homers in the second half? Nope, it wasn't Chris Davis who hit 16 homers. It wasn't Miguel Cabrera who hit 14. The answer was Alfonso Soriano who hit 18 big flies. Impressively, Soriano also led baseball with 52 RBIs after the All-Star Break in 63 games (the only other player to bat in 50 was Hunter Pence). Soriano even stole eight bases which helped him to offset that poor .248 batting average.

Mike Trout had an unsustainable .410 BABIP over his last 65 games. Surprisingly he only hit .324. Trout also only stole 12 bases in that time as well as he ran less as the year wore on (he says he wants to run more in 2014).

Joey Votto hit only .284 with nine homers and 31 RBIs over his final 67 games. Those aren't numbers any owner would be happy with. At the same time it's hard to get too down on him when he posted a .438 OBP.

Jayson Werth hit a robust .339 with a 1.032 OPS over his final 65 games. He also scored 46 times while driving in 49 runners.

Eric Young Jr. stole 30 bags in his last 67 outings to lead baseball. Two others stole 20+ bases after the Break: Elvis Andrus (23) and Alex Rios (23).
 
Thoughts on my keeper situation guys?

16 team league. We're allowed 10 keepers and up to 3 minor leaguers (if we have any on our roster) for a possible total of 13.

Only minor leaguer I'm keeping is Carlos Correa.

Need to choose 10 from -

C - Yadi

1B/OF - Allen Craig

2B - Cano

3B - Seager

OF - Ellsbury/Will Myers


SP - Kershaw, Price, Sonny Gray, Taijuan Walker, Matt Harvey

RP - Greg Holland


Right now - Craig, Cano, Seager, Ellsbury, Myers, Kershaw, Price, Gray, Walker, Harvey?

I've pretty much accepted that I'm letting Holland go, as good as he was saves can be replaced. I'm thinking the question is more so Yadi or Matt Harvey for my last spot?
 
blackredxiiigoat said:
Thoughts on my keeper situation guys?

16 team league. We're allowed 10 keepers and up to 3 minor leaguers (if we have any on our roster) for a possible total of 13.

Only minor leaguer I'm keeping is Carlos Correa.

Need to choose 10 from -

C - Yadi

1B/OF - Allen Craig

2B - Cano

3B - Seager

OF - Ellsbury/Will Myers


SP - Kershaw, Price, Sonny Gray, Taijuan Walker, Matt Harvey

RP - Greg Holland


Right now - Craig, Cano, Seager, Ellsbury, Myers, Kershaw, Price, Gray, Walker, Harvey?

I've pretty much accepted that I'm letting Holland go, as good as he was saves can be replaced. I'm thinking the question is more so Yadi or Matt Harvey for my last spot?
Click to expand...

Yadier, Craig, Cano, Ellsbury, Myers, Kershaw, Price, Gray, Walker, Seager

No need to keep Harvey, he won't play this year, why waste the spot. And you don't keep closers.
 
venom lyrix said:
first team is solid but big time lack of speed

second team seems weak in OF but not bad
Click to expand...

I kind of regret drafting Tulo and Hanley. I'm a bit skeptical of them and I feel they won't live up to their expectations or another injury will occur. I'm thinking of trading them for added quantity and quality.
 
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Take these lists with a grain of salt. Many times these "over valued and Over Hyped" lists are silly and "experts" are contrarians for the sake of being one.




2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts and Overvalued Players: Hitters

by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix on February 25, 2014 @ 06:00:05 PDT


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Do some names look out of place on your fantasy baseball rankings? A deeper look reveals many busts and overvalued players when preparing for your fantasy baseball draft.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Miami Marlins

Salty's ability to leave the yard has improved, but paying a fantasy starter's price for this new Marlins Park dweller teeters on crazy. His 2013 hit rate was way too lucky ... and come on, it's the Miami lineup, which further caps what you can earn. -TH

1B Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles

The impact of his 53 round-trippers in 2013 probably can't be overstated. Does anyone doubt his power? No. So what prompts the pan? Really, it's just that his second half last season (.245 BA, a homer every 15.1 ABs) is closer to his baseline performance than his once-in-a-career first (.315 BA, one HR every 9.3 at-bats). Good player? Yes -- among the likes of Edwin Encarnacion, Joey Votto and Prince Fielder. Splitting hairs, maybe? It's just important to understand that he's not such a clear-cut choice because of only what he did last year. Which is what we should all remember every year. -NM

3B Manny Machado, Baltimore Orioles

Los Angeles Dodgers OF Yasiel Puig
Puig could be huge whiff
If the 21-year-old weren't making a comeback from surgery to repair the torn medial patellofemoral ligament in his left knee, his ADP would be greater. The gist here: Be more cautious than the field. Machado won't be at full speed until close to opening day, and then he'll have some catching up to do. A slow start would mitigate and delay the gains he'll make, and those won't necessarily be significant. -NM

OF Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds FLOOR, BUT NO MORE

Turning 27, he may get closer to putting it all together, but that pipe-dream BA everyone hopes will arrive won't come without 2010-like magic. Although he hits plenty of LD, his contact rate and GB-FB split don't predict further progress.

To sustain the power for which everyone pays good cash, he has have to live with his weaknesses elsewhere. When you reach the third and fourth round of drafts, his floor looks OK, but beware the trap doors. -TH

OF Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers SOPHOMORE SLUMP

Puig's aggressive nature at the dish fueled his flashy start. But it was too much too soon: The 23-year-old's on- and off-field growing pains will manifest more strongly in his second season. Drafters can't expect another .383 BABIP, despite his GB justification, given his cratered contact rate.

Reaching his ceiling would put him among the elite, but that won't happen until 2015 at the earliest. If his SB success doesn't improve, his numbers won't differ from those you can snag a few rounds later. -TH

OF Giancarlo Stanton, Miami Marlins WORST BUY

He hit ball far, but how much can trust a 6-foot-6, 240-pounder that since 2011 has suffered chronic lower-body injuries? If he stole more bags, you'd be more willing to forgive his dangerous BA and contact profile. OBP leagues boost him a bit, but who does he have to drive in? You better hope he hits 50 out; that's the only way he'll justify a second-round pick. -TH

OF Billy Hamilton, Cincinnati Reds

You may be lucky enough that your opponents don't like him. Anytime you can draft someone with an '80' speed score, you may win the category with him on his own. Odds are, given his wheels' natural advantage over Dee Gordon, he won't become Gordon.

But will his stick do enough? Pegging Hamilton as a top-50 guy forces you to pass on much safer assets. And if you're putting all your speed eggs in the basket of someone who may not get 400 AB -- hard not to with all the power you'll be passing on -- you're running toward a dangerous strategy. -TH
 
2014 Fantasy Baseball Busts and Overvalued Players: Pitchers

by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix on February 25, 2014 @ 06:00:10 PDT

SP Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers

This RHP spent the few years prior to 2013 working toward what is likely to be his signature season. Continual gains in K/9 and, more importantly, BB/9, plus improvements in the mental side of the game, culminated in Scherzer's first 20-win, 200-inning campaign. The relatively large leaps in some of his indicators last year simply suggest that he won't maintain a notable portion of them. Justin Verlander is still the better pitcher (and value). -NM

SP Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates FOOL'S GOLD

Cole discovered his breaking stuff near the end of last season, and he was assertive around the black for his 19 MLB starts. He picked up a higher strikeout rate -- a positive change from his underwhelming ability given his raw stuff.

Eventually, he may become one of the league's best arms, but one month of successful self-discovery doesn't make him an ace. His opponents hit him hard, and in-play results may have been some of the luckiest in the league. Handing him a core role on a fantasy team based on a tiny sample will hurt you, at least for 2014. -TH

SP Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves REGRESSION DEPRESSION

Washington Nationals RP Rafael Soriano
Soriano: sloppy dresser, too
Re-installing his old delivery gave him the necessary torque to find his nastiness, both in velocity and physical deception. His long-term potential is resurrected, and he owns a fine pedigree at age 23.

But he maxed out his good fortune with indicators, especially the LOB% column, where he posted an 80.9% figure that some of the game's most established relievers would love to own. Like his teammate Kris Medlen in 2012, Teheran was too good and should be valued more as a SP3 than a 2 in dual-universe games.

SP Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals

Wacha's rapid path to the bigs culminated in a 2.11 second-half ERA. His stuff suffocates. Two warning signs: his high rate of stranding base runners, and the possibility St. Louis limits his frames for the organization's greater good. He may come at a better value than Cole and others on this list, but if your room establishes a SP2 price because of his postseason run, it'll make him even riskier. -TH

SP Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox

In a good year anymore, the BoSox's front-of-the-rotation southpaw is sort of a WHIP killer. His ceiling these days is almost surely no higher than a mixed-league SP3 or SP4. That's about where his cost places him ... so there's no room for profit and a good bit of room for a loss. -NM

SP Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates REGRESSION DEPRESSION

Alterations to his delivery extracted latent elite performance. PNC Park helps any pitcher. Liriano hardly has been a beacon of health, though, and he played a dangerous game stranding and walking runners.

If you can absorb the blowback in exchange for his top-notch K rate, he'll be fair game if others let him fall to the late rounds. Making him one of your aces, however, leaves little room to account for negative corrections. -TH

SP Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks

A fine value pick last year due to his adept work getting ahead in counts, Corbin's second-half dip violently balanced out his overachieving start. At least we already have a logical statistical explanation thanks to that correction.

Now people know that, as is the case with most other 'Zona SPs, Corbin will show steady but not elite performance. That first half was his peak, and it won't be sustained again without a lot of breaks. -TH

SP Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals

Fatigue (and probably shoulder issues) hindered his control in the second half. The Cards know how to hatch SPs, and Miller could yield a better gain as a SP4. Folks aren't letting him fall to there, though, and this two-pitch guy will tumble before he progresses toward stardom. He's a better buy in 2015. -TH

SP Matt Moore, Tampa Bay Rays

You may be correct. This may be the year that Moore puts it together. He has the talent to be a top-15 pitcher ... eventually. The control problems that he's displayed since his dazzling 2011 debut are highly discouraging, however. It would take incredible leaps in multiple disciplines for him to hit that mark. In 2014, the competition is still unwilling to discount him. He'll have to make significant gains just to meet those expectations. -NM

RP Addison Reed, Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field is neutral, not pitcher-friendly, so Reed's fly-ball issues will persist. That IFFB% was too high. J.J. Putz and David Hernandez aren't slouches. Many will underestimate the immediate shortness of Reed's leash. -TH

RP Rafael Soriano, Washington Nationals

Sure, he's lost weight, but why are so many so strong on a 34-year-old with waning velocity and dominance, plus a waxing rate of pitches getting waxed? Don't forget Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen, and don't let his recent save totals overshadow his flaws. -TH
 
2014 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Undervalued Players: Hitters

by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix on February 24, 2014 @ 14:30:38 PDT


When using 2014 fantasy baseball rankings, identify promising assets that others may ignore. In fantasy baseball drafts, sleepers and undervalued players will allow you to make the most of your picks.

C Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

Even with struggles versus southpaws, Montero hadn't batted lower than .266 from 2009-12 before his .230 last year. Don't let an injury-riddled 2H negate this cleanup hitter's stable track record. -TH

C Wilson Ramos, Washington Nationals BREAKOUT PLAYER

High grounder rates mask his titanic average fly-ball distance, which justifies his seemingly overachieving HR/FBs. If his knees hold up, a 20-HR performance remains a realistic achievement for this breakthrough candidate. If you're not going to pay for one of the position's top three, Ramos could be the most profitable alternative. -TH

C Devin Mesoraco, Cincinnati Reds

The departure of Ryan Hanigan and Dusty Baker clears Mesoraco's path. He'll have more AB (middle of the order?) and increased chances to harness his latent power at Great American Ball Park. He's a C2 who could enter the C1 tier by season's end. -TH

C Dioner Navarro, Toronto Blue Jays

Arizona Diamondbacks 2B Aaron Hill
Hill doesn't belong in discount rack
Folks are understandably wary of this longtime backup. But the playing time alone has value in deep two-catcher leagues, even when Navarro's production falls short of last season's (.300/.365/.492) with the Chicago Cubs. Good offense, good ballpark, good situation. -NM

1B Albert Pujols, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

What did fantasy owners expect from The Machine? Duct tape lasts for only so long. At some point, persistence becomes stubbornness. Pujols, 34, finally went under the knife, however; he's nearly as good as new. A .285-30-100 player is uncommon these days, and refurbished models come discounted. -NM

1B Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs BREAKOUT PLAYER

Detractors assert that he can't master LHPs. But he can hit their pitches out of the park; he sat among the leaders in HR against them by a LHB. He's shortening his swing and should gain more RBI opps with an improving club. He's no .300 bat, but he's not a .233 stick, as his K and chase temperance since 2011 have shown. With legit 30-homer promise, Rizzo is the next breakthrough first-sacker. -TH

2B Aaron Hill, Arizona Diamondbacks BEST BUY

A fractured bottom hand cost the RHB two months' worth of games last year. Other than his disappearance in the SB column, Hill's 2012 success carried over when he did suit up. Lock in 20 HR for a full campaign. BA indicators say his last two seasons (positive) override the disappointment of the previous two. If he steals 10-plus bags, he won't fall far short of Jason Kipnis' yield. -TH

2B Daniel Murphy, New York Mets

His knees -- in turn, SB, relatively -- look sturdy. Murphy has overcome a weak BB/K to establish a sound BA make-up. He's 29, so the power growth isn't outlandish. At leadoff, there's ample value in his quiet statistical diversity. -TH

2B Anthony Rendon, Washington Nationals

A bad July BABIP was followed by a strong finish that showed his keen eye and penchant for hard contact. He'll compensate for the SB deficiency with stealth plate thunder that's starter-worthy in deep mixers. -TH

2B/OF Kelly Johnson, New York Yankees

He's the Bronx Bombers' best option at the hot corner in lieu of a suspended Alex Rodriguez. Johnson has 20-homer power under normal circumstances. Even if he platoons, the possibility of 450 at-bats plus Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch is too alluring to pass up late. -NM
 
2014 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers and Undervalued Players: Pitchers

by Tim Heaney and Nicholas Minnix on February 24, 2014 @ 14:30:36 PDT


SP Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants

Milwaukee Brewers SP Marco Estrada
Estrada's skills are overlooked
Don't judge him by that anomalous first half; his control slipped a little, which led to more homers allowed. Not much else changed, though, and he's still a fine SP1 alternative to the bigger names. -TH

SP Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds

No reason yet to worry about his knee and elbow. If he's fine in March and your opponents still doubt him, bonus: His skills remain excellent. Though he still pitches home games in GABP, Latos has limited the long ball, putting him in near-ace territory. -TH

SP Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians SLEEPER SPOTLIGHT

Good pitching has become plentiful. If good becomes common, then fantasy owners would be well served to search for great.

This RHP was a "prospect" in 2010, before he underwent elbow-ligament replacement in August of that year. But he certainly wasn't as intriguing then as he is exciting now. Salazar's Tommy John surgery success story is one of the highest order: His velocity and command improved dramatically (thanks also go to a rebuilt delivery) as he distanced himself from the procedure.

These days, the 24-year-old's four-seamer sits in the upper 90s with ease. He also has a changeup that Baseball America labeled the best in the system in 2012. And Salazar can excel with just two plus offerings. It's unfortunate for the opposition that he occasionally unleashes a quality slider.

Salazar reached his career high in innings as a pro (145) last year. The club says that it doesn't intend to limit him in any way in 2014, however. That may worry some people. Hey, even if he doesn't make 30 starts or win more than 10 games, when he pitches, Salazar should be fantastic. Think Stephen Strasburg's 2012 (a 3.16 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP and 197 strikeouts in 159 1/3 frames), minus the top-50 pick or $20 he probably cost in a mixed league that year. -NM

SP Doug Fister, Washington Nationals

The control freak's grounder inducement reached an apex last year. He gains a much better infield defense than Motown's, which should curb that insanely high .332 BABIP. He's a bargain version of Jordan Zimmermann. -TH

SP Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers BREAKOUT PLAYER

Durability, velocity and homer prevention leave some to be desired, but the rest of his outlook points to better things, especially at his middle-rounds price. He's had back-to-back second halves of skills growth, and in this past one, he enhanced his changeup. Even if his K-9 dips (it shouldn't, by much), his low-WHIP outlook could make him one of the most valuable SP bargains. -TH

SP Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers

Haren turned around his 2013 by keeping the ball down in the zone. He lands in one of the best pitcher's parks with a strong supporting lineup and, if all goes right, should kiss his recent 4.00-plus ERAs goodbye. -TH

SP Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres

A tweak in his leg kick helped Kennedy finish 2013 with momentum. His homer problems won't vanish but will subside at PETCO Park. Few late-rounders boast this combo of skills, experience and ambience-fueled optimism. -TH

RP Joaquin Benoit, San Diego Padres

SD hasn't had a clear-cut successor to injury-prone stopper Huston Street in some time. No doubt Benoit, if healthy, is that guy. He doesn't waste many strikes, which sustains his talent, even at 36. -TH
 
5 keepers.

Keep:

Votto
Gomez
Adam Jones
Felix Hernandez

Fringe:

Wacha
Iwakuma
Harvey
Kipnis
Justin Upton



Who is my fifth keeper?
 
Really? Dang. I like Gomez a lot. I hated to get rid of Kipnis though too because of the lack of depth at 2B.
 
Miguel Sano getting Tommy John Surgery...damn. Huge blow to the Twins and Fantasy Baseball
 
Really sucks to hear the news about Sano. Was really excited to see him continue to grow this year.

Building on that keeper league question from a few posts above...

No limit on number of years you can keep a pitcher, I can contend for a title this year -

Would you trade Harvey and Taijuan Walker for Strasburg?

I'd have a rotation of Kershaw, Price, Strasburg and Sonny Gray (with Taillon waiting in the minors)
 
I know it's early but just had my first draft this afternoon in my 12 man money league. This was the only date this month we could all draft at the same time :{

I got offered Prince for my Pedroia... Currently have Goldy as my 1st baseman and plan to use Prince in the Util slot. I think Prince is gonna beast in Texas.. I also have Ian and Profar as my backup 2nd base or kinsler...Accept the trade?
 
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