- Mar 26, 2009
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Originally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
& Knicks fans
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Originally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
Originally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
That joke don't fit since it's referring to Delonte and Gloria. Try again.Originally Posted by h3at23
& Knicks fansOriginally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
That joke don't fit since it's referring to Delonte and Gloria. Try again.Originally Posted by h3at23
& Knicks fansOriginally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
Monday's piece on Orlando's potential ascension into the East's upper crust with Miami and Boston generated considerable bluster in the Windy City. With Chicago at 31-14 and sitting two games ahead of the Magic -- and just a half-game behind Miami for the conference's No. 2 seed -- how can the Bulls be left out of said discussion?
Moreover, the Bulls have been killing a power play for much of the season, having their full complement of big men for only six of their 45 games and likely playing without center Joakim Noah for a couple more weeks.
It's not like the Lakers plugging in Lamar Odom, either -- the Bulls get quite a dropoff in production when one of their two frontcourt starters is out. Veteran holdover Kurt Thomas has been holding down the fort as the starting center, and while it's safe to say he's blown away expectations for an overweight, 38-year-old, 6-foot-9 center -- most notably in Monday night's retro 22-point, nine-rebound, five-assist outing -- his production has still fallen well short of what we'd expect from Carlos Boozer and/or Noah.
Yet Chicago perseveres. The Bulls are seventh in the Power Rankings and project to finish with 54 wins according to today's Playoff Odds; factor in a healthy Noah-Boozer frontline after the All-Star break and we could expect both numbers to improve.
Yet the question lingers: Is this really a contender? Can a team that starts Keith Bogans, leans heavily on Thomas and ranks 20th in offensive efficiency really challenge for a championship?
To answer that, we need to look at two key questions. First, how much validity do we assign to their unexpectedly spectacular defensive performance? And second, how much we can expect them to improve with a reasonably healthy Noah-Boozer combo?
[h3]Tom Thibodeau's system works[/h3]
If first-year Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau isn't atop the Coach of the Year heap right now, he's certainly on the short list of candidates. He was the top assistant in Boston during a three-year period in which the Celtics finished first, second and fifth in defensive efficiency and rode their defense to two Finals appearances.
Before that he was the top assistant in Houston when the Rockets finished fifth, fourth, sixth and third in defensive efficiency despite appearing to lack great defensive talent, and got similar results prior to that as an assistant in New York. You get the picture. It doesn't matter if his starting center is Yao Ming, Kurt Thomas or Henry Abbott. He gets stops.
This season, he's getting more stops than ever before. The Bulls lead the league in defensive efficiency by nearly two full points over his former charges in Boston, and while that advantage may shrink in the coming weeks when a soft schedule turns more challenging, it's still a mind-blowing performance by a first-year coach whose best defensive player, Noah, has played only 24 games.
Style-wise, he's unusually vocal. Thibodeau screams out instructions virtually the entire game -- just as he did as an assistant in Boston -- and it's loud enough that one can often hear him through the TV set. (If you're watching a Bulls game, listen for a deep, throaty voice blurting out monosyllabic instructions in a way that sounds, roughly, like somebody calling balls and strikes at an imaginary softball game being played at warp speed.)
Obviously, some wonder how well this approach will hold up now that he's The Guy; there are interesting parallels between his overachieving defensive teams and those of a previous Bulls coach, Scott Skiles.
But that's for down the road. In the short-term, a greater enemy faces the Bulls, and it's named Regression to the Mean. The Bulls are first in 2-point field-goal defense, overall field-goal defense and opponent true shooting percentage, and are fourth in 3-point defense. In three of those categories, they're more than two standard deviations better than the league average, which theory says will only happen for about one team in 50.
Additionally, two of the flukiest opponent stats are 3-point shooting and free throw shooting; as this study notes, only about one-sixth of performance in this category reliably carries over from year to year. The Bulls are fourth in 3-point defense and slightly above the league average in "free throw defense", so they can expect to lose a bit of ground here too. (I should point out, however, that they're not the only ones -- Miami, which is second in opponent 3-point percentage and first in opponent free throw percentage, owns the league's flukiest defensive stats.)
Nonetheless, our expectations of regression can be tempered by two factors: Noah's expected return, and Thibodeau's lengthy track record of outsized defensive success. Chicago's defensive numbers may not stay quite this awesome during the second half of the season, but the Bulls are nearly certain to end the year first in defensive efficiency.
[h3]How much have the injuries hurt?[/h3]
The other question when evaluating the Bulls is how much they've been hurt by the absences of Boozer and Noah. The first temptation is to see it as a substantial blow -- Chicago frontcourt reserves Thomas, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik aren't thought of nearly as highly.
Certainly, Boozer's absence had an offensive impact in particular. The dude is shooting 55 percent from the floor and scoring 24.9 points per 40 minutes, so while he subtracts defensively compared to Gibson or Thomas, he's more than offsetting it with his scoring.
Along the same lines, one has to imagine Noah's presence would make the Chicago defense even more mighty, especially since Chicago's starters haven't been nearly as potent on that end as the subs.
However, the injury talk has to be tempered with some reality too. Those two absences have been Chicago's only significant injuries, anywhere; Blazers East they ain't. Even with the losses of Boozer and Noah, then, one would characterize their overall health this season more as "slightly below average" than "injury Armageddon."
That's especially true when one of the injuries was an 18-game absence to Boozer, a player who has missed exactly 18 games per season over the course of the previous eight seasons. I'm thinking that one should have been priced into our expectations from the get-go.
[h3]So ... are they or aren't they?[/h3]
In the end, my take on the Bulls is that what they've done to date is about 95 percent of their ceiling with this roster. Would they be better with a healthy Boozer-Noah tandem? Of course. But lots of teams can make a case that they'd be better if the entire roster was healthy; in most cases, it's not a realistic conversation to be having 45 games into the grind.
The scary part for the rest of the East, however, is not what the Bulls are now, but rather what they're capable of becoming, relatively quickly. Chicago already has its centerpiece, obviously, with a stud point guard in Derrick Rose -- one who has warmed my heart of late by using shot fakes and creating contact to significantly increase his formerly flimsy free throw rate.
It has two perfect complementary pieces up front in the high-scoring Boozer and the defending, hustling Noah. It has a big wing who can score (Luol Deng), long shot-blockers off the bench (Gibson and Asik), and decent bench players (C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer). And it has, for the moment, an unusually productive old, short, overweight center.
Combine that with the terror Thibodeau unleashes on D and the Bulls are, if not a true contender, more like a "threatener" -- a team that can win 50-something games, stomp an overmatched patsy in the first round and scare the bejeezus out of Miami or Boston in the conference semis.
But as we approach the trade deadline, the other piece to consider is how the Bulls might improve upon that position. One wonders -- if Chicago is this potent with a replacement-level player starting at shooting guard and limited outside shooting, how might they be with a long-range bomber at the 2 who can also defend?
Attaining such an asset won't be easy, and I would discourage the Bulls from mortgaging one of their young bigs to acquire such a piece when the next offseason (whenever that is) should provide the same opportunity with mere exception money. Yet any Chicago fan has to consider this a tantalizing springboard to immediate contention.
Short of such a move, the Bulls are about what the standings say they are today. Chicago will get a boost from Noah's return and a bump down from much harder comp in the second half of the season, but at the end of the day I suspect the Bulls' 2010-11 season -- successful though it will be -- will be memorable mainly as a harbinger of much loftier future heights.
Monday's piece on Orlando's potential ascension into the East's upper crust with Miami and Boston generated considerable bluster in the Windy City. With Chicago at 31-14 and sitting two games ahead of the Magic -- and just a half-game behind Miami for the conference's No. 2 seed -- how can the Bulls be left out of said discussion?
Moreover, the Bulls have been killing a power play for much of the season, having their full complement of big men for only six of their 45 games and likely playing without center Joakim Noah for a couple more weeks.
It's not like the Lakers plugging in Lamar Odom, either -- the Bulls get quite a dropoff in production when one of their two frontcourt starters is out. Veteran holdover Kurt Thomas has been holding down the fort as the starting center, and while it's safe to say he's blown away expectations for an overweight, 38-year-old, 6-foot-9 center -- most notably in Monday night's retro 22-point, nine-rebound, five-assist outing -- his production has still fallen well short of what we'd expect from Carlos Boozer and/or Noah.
Yet Chicago perseveres. The Bulls are seventh in the Power Rankings and project to finish with 54 wins according to today's Playoff Odds; factor in a healthy Noah-Boozer frontline after the All-Star break and we could expect both numbers to improve.
Yet the question lingers: Is this really a contender? Can a team that starts Keith Bogans, leans heavily on Thomas and ranks 20th in offensive efficiency really challenge for a championship?
To answer that, we need to look at two key questions. First, how much validity do we assign to their unexpectedly spectacular defensive performance? And second, how much we can expect them to improve with a reasonably healthy Noah-Boozer combo?
[h3]Tom Thibodeau's system works[/h3]
If first-year Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau isn't atop the Coach of the Year heap right now, he's certainly on the short list of candidates. He was the top assistant in Boston during a three-year period in which the Celtics finished first, second and fifth in defensive efficiency and rode their defense to two Finals appearances.
Before that he was the top assistant in Houston when the Rockets finished fifth, fourth, sixth and third in defensive efficiency despite appearing to lack great defensive talent, and got similar results prior to that as an assistant in New York. You get the picture. It doesn't matter if his starting center is Yao Ming, Kurt Thomas or Henry Abbott. He gets stops.
This season, he's getting more stops than ever before. The Bulls lead the league in defensive efficiency by nearly two full points over his former charges in Boston, and while that advantage may shrink in the coming weeks when a soft schedule turns more challenging, it's still a mind-blowing performance by a first-year coach whose best defensive player, Noah, has played only 24 games.
Style-wise, he's unusually vocal. Thibodeau screams out instructions virtually the entire game -- just as he did as an assistant in Boston -- and it's loud enough that one can often hear him through the TV set. (If you're watching a Bulls game, listen for a deep, throaty voice blurting out monosyllabic instructions in a way that sounds, roughly, like somebody calling balls and strikes at an imaginary softball game being played at warp speed.)
Obviously, some wonder how well this approach will hold up now that he's The Guy; there are interesting parallels between his overachieving defensive teams and those of a previous Bulls coach, Scott Skiles.
But that's for down the road. In the short-term, a greater enemy faces the Bulls, and it's named Regression to the Mean. The Bulls are first in 2-point field-goal defense, overall field-goal defense and opponent true shooting percentage, and are fourth in 3-point defense. In three of those categories, they're more than two standard deviations better than the league average, which theory says will only happen for about one team in 50.
Additionally, two of the flukiest opponent stats are 3-point shooting and free throw shooting; as this study notes, only about one-sixth of performance in this category reliably carries over from year to year. The Bulls are fourth in 3-point defense and slightly above the league average in "free throw defense", so they can expect to lose a bit of ground here too. (I should point out, however, that they're not the only ones -- Miami, which is second in opponent 3-point percentage and first in opponent free throw percentage, owns the league's flukiest defensive stats.)
Nonetheless, our expectations of regression can be tempered by two factors: Noah's expected return, and Thibodeau's lengthy track record of outsized defensive success. Chicago's defensive numbers may not stay quite this awesome during the second half of the season, but the Bulls are nearly certain to end the year first in defensive efficiency.
[h3]How much have the injuries hurt?[/h3]
The other question when evaluating the Bulls is how much they've been hurt by the absences of Boozer and Noah. The first temptation is to see it as a substantial blow -- Chicago frontcourt reserves Thomas, Taj Gibson and Omer Asik aren't thought of nearly as highly.
Certainly, Boozer's absence had an offensive impact in particular. The dude is shooting 55 percent from the floor and scoring 24.9 points per 40 minutes, so while he subtracts defensively compared to Gibson or Thomas, he's more than offsetting it with his scoring.
Along the same lines, one has to imagine Noah's presence would make the Chicago defense even more mighty, especially since Chicago's starters haven't been nearly as potent on that end as the subs.
However, the injury talk has to be tempered with some reality too. Those two absences have been Chicago's only significant injuries, anywhere; Blazers East they ain't. Even with the losses of Boozer and Noah, then, one would characterize their overall health this season more as "slightly below average" than "injury Armageddon."
That's especially true when one of the injuries was an 18-game absence to Boozer, a player who has missed exactly 18 games per season over the course of the previous eight seasons. I'm thinking that one should have been priced into our expectations from the get-go.
[h3]So ... are they or aren't they?[/h3]
In the end, my take on the Bulls is that what they've done to date is about 95 percent of their ceiling with this roster. Would they be better with a healthy Boozer-Noah tandem? Of course. But lots of teams can make a case that they'd be better if the entire roster was healthy; in most cases, it's not a realistic conversation to be having 45 games into the grind.
The scary part for the rest of the East, however, is not what the Bulls are now, but rather what they're capable of becoming, relatively quickly. Chicago already has its centerpiece, obviously, with a stud point guard in Derrick Rose -- one who has warmed my heart of late by using shot fakes and creating contact to significantly increase his formerly flimsy free throw rate.
It has two perfect complementary pieces up front in the high-scoring Boozer and the defending, hustling Noah. It has a big wing who can score (Luol Deng), long shot-blockers off the bench (Gibson and Asik), and decent bench players (C.J. Watson, Kyle Korver and Ronnie Brewer). And it has, for the moment, an unusually productive old, short, overweight center.
Combine that with the terror Thibodeau unleashes on D and the Bulls are, if not a true contender, more like a "threatener" -- a team that can win 50-something games, stomp an overmatched patsy in the first round and scare the bejeezus out of Miami or Boston in the conference semis.
But as we approach the trade deadline, the other piece to consider is how the Bulls might improve upon that position. One wonders -- if Chicago is this potent with a replacement-level player starting at shooting guard and limited outside shooting, how might they be with a long-range bomber at the 2 who can also defend?
Attaining such an asset won't be easy, and I would discourage the Bulls from mortgaging one of their young bigs to acquire such a piece when the next offseason (whenever that is) should provide the same opportunity with mere exception money. Yet any Chicago fan has to consider this a tantalizing springboard to immediate contention.
Short of such a move, the Bulls are about what the standings say they are today. Chicago will get a boost from Noah's return and a bump down from much harder comp in the second half of the season, but at the end of the day I suspect the Bulls' 2010-11 season -- successful though it will be -- will be memorable mainly as a harbinger of much loftier future heights.
Shush! Knicks fans also thought the whole Delonte and Gloria thing sealed the dealOriginally Posted by ATGD7154xBBxMZ
I was about to ask what team picked up Ewing Jr. until I read d-league. Sad. That aint NBA news.
That joke don't fit since it's referring to Delonte and Gloria. Try again.Originally Posted by h3at23
& Knicks fansOriginally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
Shush! Knicks fans also thought the whole Delonte and Gloria thing sealed the dealOriginally Posted by ATGD7154xBBxMZ
I was about to ask what team picked up Ewing Jr. until I read d-league. Sad. That aint NBA news.
That joke don't fit since it's referring to Delonte and Gloria. Try again.Originally Posted by h3at23
& Knicks fansOriginally Posted by MrONegative
^ That's what Dan Gilbert thought.
Originally Posted by Zyzz
Lakers looking to move Artest
Originally Posted by Zyzz
Lakers looking to move Artest
We've had the LeBron Lottery. The Blake Griffin Lottery. The John Wall Lottery.
This year, it's anybody's game.
Usually by January, a consensus front-runner for the top pick has emerged. When it hasn't been a lone player like LeBron, Griffin or Wall, it's been a debate between two elite players like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley.
But not only is there no consensus No. 1 at this point for the 2011 NBA draft, most NBA general managers are struggling to come up with anyone who even deserves to be drafted first overall.
"When you think of the No. 1 pick, you think of a franchise player who can almost single-handedly begin to turn around the fortunes of your franchise," one lottery-bound GM told ESPN.com. "You expect them to be an All-Star, maybe even a superstar down the road. That's why the draft is so important. This year, I'm struggling to tell you who that guy is going to be."
GMs have struggled with this dilemma before. The results have seldom been pretty.
With no clear No. 1 in 2006, the Raptors took Andrea Bargnani. In 2001, Wizards GM Michael Jordan decided a day before the draft to pick Kwame Brown. And the 1998 (Michael Olowokandi) and 1995 (Joe Smith) drafts had similar issues.
So you can see why GMs for bad teams like the Cavs, Kings and Timberwolves are wringing their hands.
We didn't necessarily expect it to happen this way. Coming into the season, North Carolina's Harrison Barnes drew raves and was even compared to Kobe Bryant by scouts. Other teams were crazy in love with Baylor's Perry Jones, calling him a hybrid of Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett.
Unfortunately, neither player has lived up to preseason expectations. Barnes has struggled to make an impact and is averaging just 11.8 points per game on 37.4 percent shooting. Jones has been better (14.1 ppg, 7 rpg) but not dominant.
Duke's Kyrie Irving generated a lot of buzz with great play early, but a serious turf toe injury knocked him out after eight games and he may not play again for the Blue Devils. If he can come back and get healthy before draft workouts, he may have a slight edge for the No. 1 pick -- but that's a big if. Not only are teams concerned about his toe, but Irving doesn't have the same explosiveness that other No. 1 picks like Wall and Rose have.
Turkish big man Enes Kanter had preseason buzz but was ruled ineligible to play at Kentucky by the NCAA. And while there are some other outstanding college players (such as Ohio State's Jared Sullinger, UConn's Kemba Walker, Arizona's Derrick Williams and BYU's Jimmer Fredette) and as strong an international crop as there's ever been (headlined by Lithuania's Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas), these players don't appear to be top-pick material.
So who will go No. 1?
With the 2011 debut of our annual Lottery + Mock Draft, Insider spoke to scouts or executives from almost every projected draft lottery team in an effort to get a sneak peak at their draft boards.
Here's what they said, along with their chances of getting the first pick (based on the current standings):
[h3]Cleveland Cavaliers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
With needs everywhere, the Cavs could go in just about any direction. But if there's one spot where they have some talent, it's at the point with Mo Williams and Ramon Sessions. That will likely lead Cleveland into the arms of Jones. Of all the players in the draft, Jones would have the most upside. He is essentially a guard in a 6-foot-11 body, can play four positions and is unselfish, almost to a fault.
That versatility is what makes him so intriguing to the Cavs -- he's the sort of player a team can build around in a number of ways. Whether Jones ever makes good on his potential is up in the air. But for a team in desperate need of talent, Jones might offer the most.
[h3]Minnesota Timberwolves[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Wolves have Kevin Love and Beasley at forward, but Jones would add something to the mix that neither brings: length and explosive athleticism. Love and Beasley struggle guarding forwards in the league like Jones, but Jones himself shouldn't have that problem. Given that the Wolves wouldn't expect too much too soon, it might be the freshman's ideal landing spot.
[h3]Sacramento Kings[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is one of the easier picks. The Kings have been shopping for a point guard for months. They now know Tyreke Evans is more of a 2, and even though Beno Udrih has played well at times, Irving is a big upgrade for the future.
The Duke prospect's ability to lead, shoot the ball and step in and play from day one are all big factors for the Kings. So is the fact that Irving doesn't have the same personality issues that Evans and DeMarcus Cousins have.
[h3]Toronto Raptors[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 10.4 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Raptors are another team that has been looking for a long-term upgrade at the 1. Jose Calderon has played well, and they like what Jerryd Bayless brings. But Irving's a better, younger version of Calderon who would fit in nicely with a young core that includes Bargnani, Ed Davis and DeMar DeRozan.
[h3]New Jersey Nets[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 10.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is a no-brainer if the Nets actually own the pick in June. As everyone in the universe knows by now, the Nets were in talks with the Nuggets about a Carmelo Anthony trade.
Last week Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov pulled out of the negotiations and the Nets are signaling that they may just rebuild with young players. If they do, Irving would be the choice. The team has never been sold on Devin Harris as the point guard of the future and thinks Irving is a long-term better fit, especially if he's healthy.
[h3]Washington Wizards[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Wizards drafted their point guard of the future last June, so I think you can cross Irving off the board. You can eliminate Kanter, too, as the team thinks Javale McGee has a bright future. Which makes Jones the default choice here. The Wizards have explored moving Andray Blatche, and even if they can't, Wiz execs think Jones would be an upgrade.
[h3]Detroit Pistons[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Pistons need more size and length, which seems to point to either Jones or Kanter. But from what I gather, Irving is atop their board. The team has invested a lot in Rodney Stuckey at the point, but he has not shown the same feel for the position as Irving. With Rip Hamilton having one foot out the door, the Pistons could start Irving and Stuckey in the backcourt, which would free Stuckey to be more of a pure scorer.
[h3]Milwaukee Bucks[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Bucks already have their point guard of the future in Brandon Jennings, which likely rules out Irving. Meanwhile, they do need athleticism in the frontcourt, and Jones seems like a perfect fit. Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette aren't the long-term solutions for the Bucks, and teaming Jones with Jennings and Andrew Bogut would give the Bucks a great trio of young players.
[h3]Indiana Pacers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Pacers' biggest needs are for an athletic 4 and a 2 guard who can create his own shot off the dribble. But if he's available, it's hard to see the Pacers passing on Irving. Coming into the season, it looked like Darren Collison was the Pacers' point guard of the future, but his so-so season may give them pause. Besides, Irving is a better prospect. Jones isn't out of the question here either, though his lack of toughness might scare off Indiana.
[h3]Los Angeles Clippers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is another simple one. The Clippers have young players they really like at every position. But if they were going to replace one of them, it would be point guard Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is having a good rookie season (7.3 ppg, 4.2 apg), but he doesn't have the same feel for the game as Irving, nor is he as good a shooter. Put Irving, Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu together and you have a really terrific young core.
[h3]Golden State Warriors[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Warriors have specialized over the years in drafting long, athletic forwards without defined positions. For the most part, they haven't panned out -- from Anthony Randolph to Brandan Wright, these guys are the poster children for why teams might want to shy away from Jones. On the other hand, what the Warriors need more than anything is some length and athleticism at the forward position. If Jones is the real deal, he'd really help them.
[h3]Houston Rockets[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.7 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This one could go either way, but I think the Rockets would lean slightly toward Irving. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry are solid point guards, but neither has the complete package that Irving does. The Rockets could use help at all five positions, but Irving seems like the best fit, especially if Brooks, a restricted free agent this summer, departs.
[h3]Phoenix Suns[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
Steve Nash, who turns 37 in less than a month, is not going to be running the show forever. In fact, some believe he may not be running the Suns' offense in a month. Phoenix says it doesn't want to trade Nash, but as he is the team's only major asset, it may have to. Either way, Irving is a great long-term replacement as the Suns start to rebuild.
[h3]Memphis Grizzlies[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
Mike Conley was once supposed to be what scouts are projecting Irving to be. Conley has improved this season and was rewarded with a fat extension. But I still think the team would take Irving if he's available. Scouts project Irving to be a better pro, and the Grizzlies can bring him along slowly and/or make Conley available via trade.
[h3]Non-lottery teams that might still win the lottery[/h3]
[h3]Philadelphia 76ers[/h3]
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Enes Kanter
Up until now, we've had every team taking either Irving or Jones. The Sixers are the only notable exception. They have their point guard of the future, Jrue Holiday, and plenty of wings, but they lack any real presence in the paint. Had Kanter been allowed to play for Kentucky, he might have earned this spot at the top. Still, as the only center in the draft with major upside, he would go No. 1 anyway if Philly gets the pick.
[h3]Charlotte Bobcats[/h3]
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
D.J. Augustin has done a solid job as Raymond Felton's replacement since Paul Silas took over the team. But Augustin doesn't have the upside or the creative scoring ability that Irving does. This would be a big upgrade for the Bobcats at a critical position.
We've had the LeBron Lottery. The Blake Griffin Lottery. The John Wall Lottery.
This year, it's anybody's game.
Usually by January, a consensus front-runner for the top pick has emerged. When it hasn't been a lone player like LeBron, Griffin or Wall, it's been a debate between two elite players like Greg Oden and Kevin Durant or Derrick Rose and Michael Beasley.
But not only is there no consensus No. 1 at this point for the 2011 NBA draft, most NBA general managers are struggling to come up with anyone who even deserves to be drafted first overall.
"When you think of the No. 1 pick, you think of a franchise player who can almost single-handedly begin to turn around the fortunes of your franchise," one lottery-bound GM told ESPN.com. "You expect them to be an All-Star, maybe even a superstar down the road. That's why the draft is so important. This year, I'm struggling to tell you who that guy is going to be."
GMs have struggled with this dilemma before. The results have seldom been pretty.
With no clear No. 1 in 2006, the Raptors took Andrea Bargnani. In 2001, Wizards GM Michael Jordan decided a day before the draft to pick Kwame Brown. And the 1998 (Michael Olowokandi) and 1995 (Joe Smith) drafts had similar issues.
So you can see why GMs for bad teams like the Cavs, Kings and Timberwolves are wringing their hands.
We didn't necessarily expect it to happen this way. Coming into the season, North Carolina's Harrison Barnes drew raves and was even compared to Kobe Bryant by scouts. Other teams were crazy in love with Baylor's Perry Jones, calling him a hybrid of Tracy McGrady and Kevin Garnett.
Unfortunately, neither player has lived up to preseason expectations. Barnes has struggled to make an impact and is averaging just 11.8 points per game on 37.4 percent shooting. Jones has been better (14.1 ppg, 7 rpg) but not dominant.
Duke's Kyrie Irving generated a lot of buzz with great play early, but a serious turf toe injury knocked him out after eight games and he may not play again for the Blue Devils. If he can come back and get healthy before draft workouts, he may have a slight edge for the No. 1 pick -- but that's a big if. Not only are teams concerned about his toe, but Irving doesn't have the same explosiveness that other No. 1 picks like Wall and Rose have.
Turkish big man Enes Kanter had preseason buzz but was ruled ineligible to play at Kentucky by the NCAA. And while there are some other outstanding college players (such as Ohio State's Jared Sullinger, UConn's Kemba Walker, Arizona's Derrick Williams and BYU's Jimmer Fredette) and as strong an international crop as there's ever been (headlined by Lithuania's Jonas Valanciunas and Donatas Motiejunas), these players don't appear to be top-pick material.
So who will go No. 1?
With the 2011 debut of our annual Lottery + Mock Draft, Insider spoke to scouts or executives from almost every projected draft lottery team in an effort to get a sneak peak at their draft boards.
Here's what they said, along with their chances of getting the first pick (based on the current standings):
[h3]Cleveland Cavaliers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 25 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
With needs everywhere, the Cavs could go in just about any direction. But if there's one spot where they have some talent, it's at the point with Mo Williams and Ramon Sessions. That will likely lead Cleveland into the arms of Jones. Of all the players in the draft, Jones would have the most upside. He is essentially a guard in a 6-foot-11 body, can play four positions and is unselfish, almost to a fault.
That versatility is what makes him so intriguing to the Cavs -- he's the sort of player a team can build around in a number of ways. Whether Jones ever makes good on his potential is up in the air. But for a team in desperate need of talent, Jones might offer the most.
[h3]Minnesota Timberwolves[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 19.9 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Wolves have Kevin Love and Beasley at forward, but Jones would add something to the mix that neither brings: length and explosive athleticism. Love and Beasley struggle guarding forwards in the league like Jones, but Jones himself shouldn't have that problem. Given that the Wolves wouldn't expect too much too soon, it might be the freshman's ideal landing spot.
[h3]Sacramento Kings[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 15.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is one of the easier picks. The Kings have been shopping for a point guard for months. They now know Tyreke Evans is more of a 2, and even though Beno Udrih has played well at times, Irving is a big upgrade for the future.
The Duke prospect's ability to lead, shoot the ball and step in and play from day one are all big factors for the Kings. So is the fact that Irving doesn't have the same personality issues that Evans and DeMarcus Cousins have.
[h3]Toronto Raptors[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 10.4 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Raptors are another team that has been looking for a long-term upgrade at the 1. Jose Calderon has played well, and they like what Jerryd Bayless brings. But Irving's a better, younger version of Calderon who would fit in nicely with a young core that includes Bargnani, Ed Davis and DeMar DeRozan.
[h3]New Jersey Nets[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 10.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is a no-brainer if the Nets actually own the pick in June. As everyone in the universe knows by now, the Nets were in talks with the Nuggets about a Carmelo Anthony trade.
Last week Nets owner Mikhail Prokhorov pulled out of the negotiations and the Nets are signaling that they may just rebuild with young players. If they do, Irving would be the choice. The team has never been sold on Devin Harris as the point guard of the future and thinks Irving is a long-term better fit, especially if he's healthy.
[h3]Washington Wizards[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 6.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Wizards drafted their point guard of the future last June, so I think you can cross Irving off the board. You can eliminate Kanter, too, as the team thinks Javale McGee has a bright future. Which makes Jones the default choice here. The Wizards have explored moving Andray Blatche, and even if they can't, Wiz execs think Jones would be an upgrade.
[h3]Detroit Pistons[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 4.3 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Pistons need more size and length, which seems to point to either Jones or Kanter. But from what I gather, Irving is atop their board. The team has invested a lot in Rodney Stuckey at the point, but he has not shown the same feel for the position as Irving. With Rip Hamilton having one foot out the door, the Pistons could start Irving and Stuckey in the backcourt, which would free Stuckey to be more of a pure scorer.
[h3]Milwaukee Bucks[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 2.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Bucks already have their point guard of the future in Brandon Jennings, which likely rules out Irving. Meanwhile, they do need athleticism in the frontcourt, and Jones seems like a perfect fit. Drew Gooden and Corey Maggette aren't the long-term solutions for the Bucks, and teaming Jones with Jennings and Andrew Bogut would give the Bucks a great trio of young players.
[h3]Indiana Pacers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.7 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
The Pacers' biggest needs are for an athletic 4 and a 2 guard who can create his own shot off the dribble. But if he's available, it's hard to see the Pacers passing on Irving. Coming into the season, it looked like Darren Collison was the Pacers' point guard of the future, but his so-so season may give them pause. Besides, Irving is a better prospect. Jones isn't out of the question here either, though his lack of toughness might scare off Indiana.
[h3]Los Angeles Clippers[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 1.1 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This is another simple one. The Clippers have young players they really like at every position. But if they were going to replace one of them, it would be point guard Eric Bledsoe. Bledsoe is having a good rookie season (7.3 ppg, 4.2 apg), but he doesn't have the same feel for the game as Irving, nor is he as good a shooter. Put Irving, Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu together and you have a really terrific young core.
[h3]Golden State Warriors[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.8 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Perry Jones
The Warriors have specialized over the years in drafting long, athletic forwards without defined positions. For the most part, they haven't panned out -- from Anthony Randolph to Brandan Wright, these guys are the poster children for why teams might want to shy away from Jones. On the other hand, what the Warriors need more than anything is some length and athleticism at the forward position. If Jones is the real deal, he'd really help them.
[h3]Houston Rockets[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.7 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
This one could go either way, but I think the Rockets would lean slightly toward Irving. Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry are solid point guards, but neither has the complete package that Irving does. The Rockets could use help at all five positions, but Irving seems like the best fit, especially if Brooks, a restricted free agent this summer, departs.
[h3]Phoenix Suns[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.6 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
Steve Nash, who turns 37 in less than a month, is not going to be running the show forever. In fact, some believe he may not be running the Suns' offense in a month. Phoenix says it doesn't want to trade Nash, but as he is the team's only major asset, it may have to. Either way, Irving is a great long-term replacement as the Suns start to rebuild.
[h3]Memphis Grizzlies[/h3]
Odds of winning the lottery: 0.5 percent
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
Mike Conley was once supposed to be what scouts are projecting Irving to be. Conley has improved this season and was rewarded with a fat extension. But I still think the team would take Irving if he's available. Scouts project Irving to be a better pro, and the Grizzlies can bring him along slowly and/or make Conley available via trade.
[h3]Non-lottery teams that might still win the lottery[/h3]
[h3]Philadelphia 76ers[/h3]
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Enes Kanter
Up until now, we've had every team taking either Irving or Jones. The Sixers are the only notable exception. They have their point guard of the future, Jrue Holiday, and plenty of wings, but they lack any real presence in the paint. Had Kanter been allowed to play for Kentucky, he might have earned this spot at the top. Still, as the only center in the draft with major upside, he would go No. 1 anyway if Philly gets the pick.
[h3]Charlotte Bobcats[/h3]
Likely selection with No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving
D.J. Augustin has done a solid job as Raymond Felton's replacement since Paul Silas took over the team. But Augustin doesn't have the upside or the creative scoring ability that Irving does. This would be a big upgrade for the Bobcats at a critical position.
Per Brussard on the John thompson show.Originally Posted by CP1708
Originally Posted by Zyzz
Lakers looking to move Artest
?
Per Brussard on the John thompson show.Originally Posted by CP1708
Originally Posted by Zyzz
Lakers looking to move Artest
?