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OFFICIAL 2010-2011 NBA PLAYOFFS THREAD : VOL. MOST. ANTICIPATED. PLAYOFFS. EVER?
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by bigmike23,
- Start date
Ya'll shut the hell up. Damn you Mamba.
Quit actin like the dude is the Bruce Bowen of PG's. He's a turnstyle. Period.
Talk about somebody else. I lived thru Malone, I'm livin thru Artest, Nash would be too damn much. I'd have to kick someone's @#$ if that went down.
Although, Zo would burn in hell for it........naw, still not worth the risk.
Quit actin like the dude is the Bruce Bowen of PG's. He's a turnstyle. Period.
Talk about somebody else. I lived thru Malone, I'm livin thru Artest, Nash would be too damn much. I'd have to kick someone's @#$ if that went down.
Although, Zo would burn in hell for it........naw, still not worth the risk.
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i think he easily could
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and Dfish is 100 times worse then nash on defense. the sad part is fish gives 100% effort on D and gets killed. nash puts zero effort on D and is still better then fish
MVP
Supporter
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At least what Nash lacks defensively he can make up for offensively with his shooting, passing, and ability to make layups. Fish at this point...can do none of the aforementioned. Artest did come up HUGE for us in the Finals tho didn't he CP?
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There's enough PG in the league like that so who cares really
Nash would make them A LOT better
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Nash instantly makes you guys 100x better there is no debating. Dude was still great last year, led the league in assists, its not his fault his team was trash.
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big j 33
Supporter
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I think reading the Finals thread gave me cancer.
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I can't stand some of those Heat fans in there. There shocked that people will continue to hate this team and Lebron forever.
Spoiler [+]
DALLAS -- The fake storyline is that Dallas is dead, because all 11 times we've had a 1-1 series in the 2-3-2 format, the Game 3 winner has gone on to win the series.
Welcome to the world of small sample sizes and arbitrary end points. Given that last year the team that lost Game 3 in this situation was the same club that had a 13-point lead in the second half of Game 7, you'd think we'd be describing Miami's situation in less ironclad terms.
The red herring in this stat is "since the switch to the 2-3-2 format," which is an irrelevant distinction; either way, each side has two home games left after Game 3. In fact, the year before the switch to the 2-3-2, the Game 3 loser, Boston, won the series in seven games. Even better, the 1978 Bullets were down 2-1 and had three road games left thanks to a bizarre 1-2-2-1-1 format -- yet won the title.
Of course, other teams were down 2-0 in the Finals, then 2-1 after Game 3, yet went on to win. The 2006 Heat, 1977 Blazers and 1969 Celtics all qualify; the 2005 Pistons, like the 2010 Celtics, led Game 7 in the second half before falling short.
Instead, let's take a step back and look at the big picture. We have many more series to look at than just our small sample of NBA Finals, and in those, a 2-1 lead is helpful but by no means ironclad. The Game 3 winner of what was a 1-1 series has won just more than three-quarters of those matchups, a 76.4 percent success rate. Memphis, for instance, led Oklahoma City 2-1 in the second round after an overtime win in Game 3 but lost the series. More famously, Cleveland had a similar advantage on Boston last year before imploding in the final three games.
There's no reason to think this series should be a glaring exception, because it's a close 2-1. Through three games, Miami has outscored Dallas by a total of eight points. Factor in the Heat's extra home game, and the true difference is smaller still. This also corresponds to the small difference between these teams in the regular season -- although Miami had a superior scoring margin during the season, the Heat finished with only one more win.
The Heat and Mavericks are both somewhat flawed but relatively evenly matched. For all the talk we heard all season about superteams loading up and leaving the masses in their dust, whoever wins the title this season will have slipped through a crack between the Lakers' dynasty and whatever comes next. It's only the fifth Finals in the past 33 years with neither a 60-win team nor a No. 1 seed.
But here's the other reason to think Dallas still has a shot: It has more cards left to play than the Heat do.
As star-studded as Miami's roster is, its potential adjustments are relatively limited -- especially if the Heat continue to insist on benching James Jones, who I would argue is a superior alternative to Juwan Howard for the short minutes at the end of the first and third quarters. Otherwise, Miami's main tactical options are "close big" (with Mike Miller and Wade in the backcourt) or "close small" (with Mario Chalmers joining Wade).
Dallas, on the other hand, is deep, and with depth comes options. The Mavs have lined up several different ways throughout the season and could shake things up again for Game 4. In particular, two adjustments could make a lot of sense for the Mavs as they try to claw their way back into the series on Tuesday:
1. Start Jason Terry
This is the nuclear option, and I'm not sure the Mavs are willing to go here yet, because they would have to change virtually everything about their rotation to accommodate this switch.
Nonetheless, it's compelling. As Bill Simmons and I discussed in our pre-Finals podcast, this is the only option sitting on the table for Mavs coach Rick Carlisle that could radically shake up the series, and at this point, a radical shake-up doesn't seem like a bad idea. As I projected before the series, the start of halves has been a problem for Dallas -- DeShawn Stevenson, normally the first starter to check out, has a plus/minus of minus-17 in the three games.
Meanwhile, this look would address a pair of usage imbalances. First, Dallas' best unit all playoffs long has been Jason Kidd-Terry-Shawn Marion-Dirk Nowitzki-Tyson Chandler, but that quintet typically plays together only at the end of each half. The players would get about 12 more minutes of run together if they were the starting group.
Additionally, Terry just isn't playing that many minutes, and he needs to play more. He has seen 96 minutes of court time in the three games, whereas the other key players on each side have played around 120. The drawback to playing Terry off the bench is that it reduces his overall minutes, and in a Finals series in which starters are playing 40-plus, that disparity becomes particularly glaring.
2. Shake up Dirk's minutes
This is probably the most urgent item for Game 4. Dallas' substitution pattern for Nowitzki simply isn't working. When Peja Stojakovic comes in for Nowitzki in the first and third quarters, it opens up a glaring mismatch at the 3 or the 4 because LeBron James and Chris Bosh are still in the game.
Carlisle likes to give Nowitzki his breathers early in the half, but this doesn't fly against Miami's rotation. Dallas has played only 20 minutes without Dirk in the series, but in that time the Mavs are a staggering minus-31. At that rate, Dallas would lose a 48-minute game by 74 points. Basically, the Mavs are outplaying the Heat as long as Nowitzki plays, but they're getting killed in his few minutes of rest.
This issue has as much to do with his replacement, Stojakovic, as it does Nowitzki. As good as Peja was in the first two rounds, he was subpar against Oklahoma City and has been downright awful in three Finals games.
One potential counter is to wait until Juwan Howard enters the game before bringing in Stojakovic, providing the Serb with a place to hide on defense. The less obvious move would be to use defensively talented but offensively bereft Corey Brewer in Stojakovic's place.
Another strategy might be to combine the two ideas above. By starting Terry, the Mavs could bring in Stevenson to give Nowitzki his rest and have a solid defender remain on the court. In fact, they could use Stevenson if they don't change the starting lineup just by tweaking the guard rotation to bring in Terry a couple of minutes earlier (which needs to happen anyway), then bring in a fresh Stevenson near the end of the first and third quarter in the Stojakovic spot.
At any rate, the Mavs need to shake things up a bit. They've been close but are constantly playing from behind and are likely due for a regression on defense once Bosh makes some shots.
Down 2-1 is not a death sentence despite the gory "11 straight" stat you'll hear incessantly for the next day and a half, but the pressure is certainly on Dallas heading into Game 4.
Welcome to the world of small sample sizes and arbitrary end points. Given that last year the team that lost Game 3 in this situation was the same club that had a 13-point lead in the second half of Game 7, you'd think we'd be describing Miami's situation in less ironclad terms.
The red herring in this stat is "since the switch to the 2-3-2 format," which is an irrelevant distinction; either way, each side has two home games left after Game 3. In fact, the year before the switch to the 2-3-2, the Game 3 loser, Boston, won the series in seven games. Even better, the 1978 Bullets were down 2-1 and had three road games left thanks to a bizarre 1-2-2-1-1 format -- yet won the title.
Of course, other teams were down 2-0 in the Finals, then 2-1 after Game 3, yet went on to win. The 2006 Heat, 1977 Blazers and 1969 Celtics all qualify; the 2005 Pistons, like the 2010 Celtics, led Game 7 in the second half before falling short.
Instead, let's take a step back and look at the big picture. We have many more series to look at than just our small sample of NBA Finals, and in those, a 2-1 lead is helpful but by no means ironclad. The Game 3 winner of what was a 1-1 series has won just more than three-quarters of those matchups, a 76.4 percent success rate. Memphis, for instance, led Oklahoma City 2-1 in the second round after an overtime win in Game 3 but lost the series. More famously, Cleveland had a similar advantage on Boston last year before imploding in the final three games.
There's no reason to think this series should be a glaring exception, because it's a close 2-1. Through three games, Miami has outscored Dallas by a total of eight points. Factor in the Heat's extra home game, and the true difference is smaller still. This also corresponds to the small difference between these teams in the regular season -- although Miami had a superior scoring margin during the season, the Heat finished with only one more win.
The Heat and Mavericks are both somewhat flawed but relatively evenly matched. For all the talk we heard all season about superteams loading up and leaving the masses in their dust, whoever wins the title this season will have slipped through a crack between the Lakers' dynasty and whatever comes next. It's only the fifth Finals in the past 33 years with neither a 60-win team nor a No. 1 seed.
But here's the other reason to think Dallas still has a shot: It has more cards left to play than the Heat do.
As star-studded as Miami's roster is, its potential adjustments are relatively limited -- especially if the Heat continue to insist on benching James Jones, who I would argue is a superior alternative to Juwan Howard for the short minutes at the end of the first and third quarters. Otherwise, Miami's main tactical options are "close big" (with Mike Miller and Wade in the backcourt) or "close small" (with Mario Chalmers joining Wade).
Dallas, on the other hand, is deep, and with depth comes options. The Mavs have lined up several different ways throughout the season and could shake things up again for Game 4. In particular, two adjustments could make a lot of sense for the Mavs as they try to claw their way back into the series on Tuesday:
1. Start Jason Terry
This is the nuclear option, and I'm not sure the Mavs are willing to go here yet, because they would have to change virtually everything about their rotation to accommodate this switch.
Nonetheless, it's compelling. As Bill Simmons and I discussed in our pre-Finals podcast, this is the only option sitting on the table for Mavs coach Rick Carlisle that could radically shake up the series, and at this point, a radical shake-up doesn't seem like a bad idea. As I projected before the series, the start of halves has been a problem for Dallas -- DeShawn Stevenson, normally the first starter to check out, has a plus/minus of minus-17 in the three games.
Meanwhile, this look would address a pair of usage imbalances. First, Dallas' best unit all playoffs long has been Jason Kidd-Terry-Shawn Marion-Dirk Nowitzki-Tyson Chandler, but that quintet typically plays together only at the end of each half. The players would get about 12 more minutes of run together if they were the starting group.
Additionally, Terry just isn't playing that many minutes, and he needs to play more. He has seen 96 minutes of court time in the three games, whereas the other key players on each side have played around 120. The drawback to playing Terry off the bench is that it reduces his overall minutes, and in a Finals series in which starters are playing 40-plus, that disparity becomes particularly glaring.
2. Shake up Dirk's minutes
This is probably the most urgent item for Game 4. Dallas' substitution pattern for Nowitzki simply isn't working. When Peja Stojakovic comes in for Nowitzki in the first and third quarters, it opens up a glaring mismatch at the 3 or the 4 because LeBron James and Chris Bosh are still in the game.
Carlisle likes to give Nowitzki his breathers early in the half, but this doesn't fly against Miami's rotation. Dallas has played only 20 minutes without Dirk in the series, but in that time the Mavs are a staggering minus-31. At that rate, Dallas would lose a 48-minute game by 74 points. Basically, the Mavs are outplaying the Heat as long as Nowitzki plays, but they're getting killed in his few minutes of rest.
This issue has as much to do with his replacement, Stojakovic, as it does Nowitzki. As good as Peja was in the first two rounds, he was subpar against Oklahoma City and has been downright awful in three Finals games.
One potential counter is to wait until Juwan Howard enters the game before bringing in Stojakovic, providing the Serb with a place to hide on defense. The less obvious move would be to use defensively talented but offensively bereft Corey Brewer in Stojakovic's place.
Another strategy might be to combine the two ideas above. By starting Terry, the Mavs could bring in Stevenson to give Nowitzki his rest and have a solid defender remain on the court. In fact, they could use Stevenson if they don't change the starting lineup just by tweaking the guard rotation to bring in Terry a couple of minutes earlier (which needs to happen anyway), then bring in a fresh Stevenson near the end of the first and third quarter in the Stojakovic spot.
At any rate, the Mavs need to shake things up a bit. They've been close but are constantly playing from behind and are likely due for a regression on defense once Bosh makes some shots.
Down 2-1 is not a death sentence despite the gory "11 straight" stat you'll hear incessantly for the next day and a half, but the pressure is certainly on Dallas heading into Game 4.
big j 33
Supporter
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Will Jackson make a good coach? Who knows, because he has never coached. Anywhere. Not as a head coach, not as an assistant. We could try to figure out what kind of coach he would be from his color commentary (at one point during Game 3 he said the Mavs need to not let Dwyane Wade shoot open jumpers and make him drive, that might be a red flag) but really that’s not fair. Being an announcer and a coach are two very different things
Link
I really hope Jackson gets the job... whatever gets him out of the booth and not as a coach in NY makes me happy
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I think Mark Jackson would be an AWFUL hire wherever he goes. Dude has no experience and this is an experiment that would blow up in the face of the franchise that has him as a HC. There have to be better canidates out there. I'd stay away from Jackson.
Jesus Christ Laker fans are getting murdered in there.
I would feel bad for them if it was actual Heat fans goin in on em, but it's not. There's like 5 true Heat fans on this board that are legit, the rest of those tool bags just want pay back for the last few years.
I'm gonna have to send congrats to true fans thru PM's cuz no way I'm tryin to say anything in that thread.
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This would be the worst possible hire. Yall should be fortunate that he's not an option.
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Yeaaah I'm kind of giving up on that Finals thread.
big j 33
Supporter
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If he wasn't so arrogant about getting a HC job I might be more interested.. But not going after ANY type of coaching job despite wanting to be a head coach is a problem. You want it badly enough? Then put in your dues in the coaching ranks first.
The stuff he says during his broadcasts baffles me sometimes, and I understand they're two different things but come on...
The stuff he says during his broadcasts baffles me sometimes, and I understand they're two different things but come on...
T0INE
formerly toine2983
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Originally Posted by CP1708
Jesus Christ Laker fans are getting murdered in there.
I would feel bad for them if it was actual Heat fans goin in on em, but it's not. There's like 5 true Heat fans on this board that are legit, the rest of those tool bags just want pay back for the last few years.
I'm gonna have to send congrats to true fans thru PM's cuz no way I'm tryin to say anything in that thread.
If the Heat do end up closing this out.
The LeBron fans/stans are going to be calling for your head on a silver platter.
The real folks like H3at and Allen and the like, I will offer congrats too no question, no hesitation. They've by far exceeded my expectations of them this year, I have no problem saying it.
The dudes that are honestly in there calling the game last night the worst reffed game since 2002.................clearly weren't Heat fans in 2006. They, won't be getting any victory hand shakes from me.
I know who to congratulate, and who to ignore.
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|A-Man|
formerly atgd7154xbbxmz
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I can't wait til Mark Jackson fails as a coach. Just thinking of him in a coaching position and the arguments for him make me sick. Just going off what he says in his color commentary should tell most teams to stay away from him.
Like I said I'd sooner want Ewing coaching the Knicks than Jackson.
You'd think JVG would bring him along as an assistant when he becomes a coach again.
I'll feel sorry for GS if he gets the job. Hope Monta gets out of there.
Like I said I'd sooner want Ewing coaching the Knicks than Jackson.
You'd think JVG would bring him along as an assistant when he becomes a coach again.
I'll feel sorry for GS if he gets the job. Hope Monta gets out of there.
MVP
Supporter
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All MJ is going to be saying on the sidelines is "Hand down, Man Down"
aepps20
Supporter
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That finals thread is a joke. You've got the following annoying posting groups all in one thread:
1. LeBron stans
2. Fake heat fans
3. Kobe Stans
4. Fake Dallas fans (mostly Laker and Knick fans)
5. Skip Bayless (he hacked DubA or Knightngale's accounts)
Mark Jackson would be a terrible hire. Mama there goes that man back to ESPN after they fire him.
1. LeBron stans
2. Fake heat fans
3. Kobe Stans
4. Fake Dallas fans (mostly Laker and Knick fans)
5. Skip Bayless (he hacked DubA or Knightngale's accounts)
Mark Jackson would be a terrible hire. Mama there goes that man back to ESPN after they fire him.
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he didn't hack it. I am skip bayless.
