- Jan 2, 2008
- 1,869
- 74
lost soooooooooooo much on them it ain't even funny....
anybody have an opinion on the phills/giants game @ 4:15?
NT: Sportsbook Thread
- Thread in 'Sports & Training' Thread starter Started by sole searchin,
- Start date
lost soooooooooooo much on them it ain't even funny....
anybody have an opinion on the phills/giants game @ 4:15?
- Oct 17, 2008
- 872
- 12
1st half scores FTW?!!!!
Yea sure we all lost the jax bet but i call it minimizing your losses:
i bet on the scores for the 1st and 2nd half AND 1st quarter scores.......just so that jax can lose but its all good im even right?
Yea sure we all lost the jax bet but i call it minimizing your losses:
i bet on the scores for the 1st and 2nd half AND 1st quarter scores.......just so that jax can lose but its all good im even right?
- Jun 12, 2006
- 2,735
- 10
Minnesota -5.5
Calgary +125
Calgary +125
- Aug 25, 2005
- 5,974
- 352
damn... jags just didnt feel like showing up for a MNF, home, division rival game. buncha bums... oh well, not the end of the world. Guess I am just gonna hate to eat at my desk this week instead of going out for lunch.
Its a tad early, but here is my UFC 121 write up.
Main Event:
Brock Lesnar (-140) v. Cain Velasquez (+120)
for full disclosure, the last time I felt this confidently (and bet confidently) against Cain, I lost my !+* (Nog fight). What is going on with this line though? Is everyone on the Cain Velasquez warwagon? People lining up to drink the Cain Kool-Aid? Brock's last fight against Carwin showed us a lot. 1. To many, it showed that he is not invincable and his rudimentary standup has a buncha holes and he is susceptible to getting tagged by a more technical striker (which Cain is). To me, it showed a lot about Brock's chin and heart. Not that I know from experience, but by all accounts, Carwin hits like a friggin Mack truck. Brock was able to take a BEATING from Carwin and still weather the storm. While Cain is no slouch and has some dynamite in his hands, I dont think his punches pack the same vicious power as Carwins does. Now Cain is not going to gas out like Carwin did, but does Cain possess the same gorilla brute strength to push Brock around? Doubtful.
The one thing Brock has shown from fight to fight is growth. Every fight his skillset looks better and better, and it would be negligent to assume that we are going to see the same Brock we saw in the Carwin fight. He is further removed from his battle with diverticulitis, so I expect that he will be in better shape now than he was before. On paper, their wrestling should cancel each other out. But lets not forget, that past wrestling credentials and pedigree often need to be taken with a grain of salt (ex: Mark Munoz). Cain is not going to be able to ragdoll Brock like he did with Ben Rothwell. Now lets look at Brock's wrestling. While I am not a wrestling expert by any stretch of the imagination, I have NEVER seen a monster that size who moves and shoots with such explosiveness. No knock on Cain's wrestling, but if Brock really wants to shoot for a double and use his brute strength and size to push Cain up against the cage, Is Cain going to be able to neutralize that everytime? Once on the ground, Brock's top game seems to be suffocating if only due to his sheer size. I haven't seen enough of Cain's guard game to make me feel confident of him pulling a sub or sweep from that position. I think that one good takedown and some vicious GnP could dictate this fight.
The outcome of this fight may very well determine the outcome of my marital status because I am considering a larger than normal play on Brock (and my wife will leave my !+* when she finds out I lost our mortgage payment). I think -140 is a very solid price. I need to give it some thought before I pull the trigger but it definitely seems like a good spot.
Matt Hamill (-160) v. Tito Ortiz (+140)
I'm a Tito fan. Always have been always will be. Hell, I had a Tito Ortiz action figure as a topper for my wedding cake (seriously). The problem with betting on Tito is that you never know which Tito will show up. If we get the same Tito that we've seen over the last few years, Hamill should be able to wipe the floor with him. While Hamill is not an elite level fighter, he seems to do everything fairly well. His standup is pretty good as is his wrestling. I havent seen any of his grappling/submission skills but I doubt that is going to come into play in this fight. As far as I know, Hamill has never had a gas tank issue, and he should be able to go 3 rounds no problem. Tito on the other hand has exhibited issues with his cardio as of late. If this ends up being an ugly clinch battle, I see it going in Hamill's favor. After 2 rounds of constant pushing, clinching, knees to the legs, body shots, etc... Tito may come out completely gassed by the 3rd round.
Now if we see the new and improved Tito that he keeps claiming that he is. Hamill could be in a spot of trouble. I still think that Tito has it in him (his GnP that is). If he is rejuvenated, no back issues, and is able to be explosive with his shots and takedowns, He has a real path to victory here. The problem is, outside of Tito or Jenna, no one knows exactly how he is feeling, and by the time we find out it will be too late as the fight will be well underway.
Basically a bet on this fight is a bet on Tito's health. If we see injury free fresh Tito, +140 is a solid underdog price for a former champ against an above average gatekeeper type of fighter. If we see Tito circa 2008-2010, then the real odds should be somewhere around -250 for Hamill. Only because I hate to bet against Tito, I will probably sit this fight out. If I was a Tito hater though, it might be worth a play on Hamill.
Shields v. Kampmann - did a little write up on this on the last page or on the MMA thread. dont remember which.
Live Dogs
Kampmann (see earlier write up)
Lawlor +145. Dude is a gamer and is one of the more entertaining fighters in MMA today.
Gonzaga (-155) v. Shaub (+135)
Running out of time as I gotta get back to work so I will keep this one short. Gonzaga excels against middle tier competition but gets his !+* handed to him against top level comp. I dont think Schaub is quite there yet. I think that Gonzaga has all the tools to control this fight and I like a decent sized play on him here.
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Great write up Mojo. I'm with you on Brock. I also am going with Hamill. I love Tito's entrance, but he hasn't shown me anything in the cage in a long time.
- Aug 14, 2004
- 185
- 10
any good NFL picks this week?
i liked pats +3, vikings+3, steelers -3
any insight...
i liked pats +3, vikings+3, steelers -3
any insight...
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Two NHL dogs tonight.
Bruins +150 2 units
Wild +115 2 units
Bruins +150 2 units
Wild +115 2 units
- Jan 3, 2004
- 29,014
- 4,130
damn... jags just didnt feel like showing up for a MNF, home, division rival game.
Wish they didn't the 1 time I bet against them this year for the Colts game
Teased it 10 pts too if i recall
- Aug 25, 2005
- 5,974
- 352
Wish they didn't the 1 time I bet against them this year for the Colts game
hahahaha funny you mention that. that is the last time i bet on the jags too. one way or another, they find a way to F me.
- Feb 18, 2010
- 2,062
- 16
coves free pick of the day was dolphins +3. i definitely want to stay away from that game.
i def like the 49ers at -3. And ill take Ravens -14. theyre going to mollywhop the bills.
On another note, is anybody betting on the nba and who is finishing 1st in division/conf/finals/etc? a lot of seems like some pretty easy money to me.
Like: Bulls -125 to win central. Mavs +140 to win the southwest.
Durant +250 to win MVP.
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
Titans hit for me last night and I collected a benjamin. Might bet the Yanks today simply because they HAVE to win. I also liked the Giants this afternoon but didn't bet it, wasn't 100%
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Some preseason NBA:
Den -8.5 2 units
Phx -6.5 2 units
Lac o 200.0 1 unit
Durant and Westbrook not playing for OKC tonight, Karl says he is playing this one like a regular season game as far as his rotation goes...sign me up for OKC not being able to stay in this one
Like Denver, Phoenix is playing this one like a regular season game, Golden State might also but they are in a back to back on the road in the preseason...blowout
Den -8.5 2 units
Phx -6.5 2 units
Lac o 200.0 1 unit
Durant and Westbrook not playing for OKC tonight, Karl says he is playing this one like a regular season game as far as his rotation goes...sign me up for OKC not being able to stay in this one
Like Denver, Phoenix is playing this one like a regular season game, Golden State might also but they are in a back to back on the road in the preseason...blowout
- Nov 14, 2007
- 8,956
- 39
Mysportsbook.com doesn't take a percentage of your winnings correct? My friend is trying to tell me they do.
- Nov 20, 2003
- 4,081
- 67
can someone explain the concepts of units to me? is it like.. say if your personal, standard bet it $20, than 1 unit=$20, and if its a confident bet and you put down 3 units, youre betting 60?
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Exactly. A unit is a comfortable bet. If you feel more confident in a play, you can up the units. A unit should generally be somewhere between 1/50th to 1/100th of your total betting account but of course this varies person to person.
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Books don't take a percentage of your winnings. You pay juice (generally 11/10 normally seen as -110) on a standard bet. So you are betting 11 to win 10. Thus simply winning 50% of the time puts you in the hole.
- Nov 20, 2003
- 4,081
- 67
gotcha, ive never discusses betting with anyone but my friends and father so the whole concept was new to me.
5-1 since Sunday. Yankees -1.5 and Sharks -1.5 pending. Forgot the Bruins were playing or I definitely would have taken +150.
5-1 since Sunday. Yankees -1.5 and Sharks -1.5 pending. Forgot the Bruins were playing or I definitely would have taken +150.
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Nice, be sure to post your plays here so we can ride your hot streak.
- Jun 27, 2005
- 3,251
- 70
- Oct 17, 2008
- 872
- 12
Giants -113 Over 8.5
Texas +155 Over 7.5
Texas +155 Over 7.5
- Jun 12, 2006
- 2,735
- 10
Texas Rangers +155
Buffalo Sabres -105
Buffalo Sabres -105
- Oct 15, 2000
- 30,184
- 1,991
Blackhawks -150 2 Units
Thrashers o 5.5 -105 2 Units
Thrashers o 5.5 -105 2 Units
- Sep 27, 2007
- 20,619
- 1,615
got the Yankees ML today
I like the over in the SF v PHI game later
and really thinking bout Oregon -24 tomorrow at home
I like the over in the SF v PHI game later
and really thinking bout Oregon -24 tomorrow at home
- Nov 20, 2003
- 4,081
- 67
0-3 yesterday, Yankees killed me.
Canucks ML +140, Sabres -1.5 and SF ML -105, I think, tonight. Doing well so far.
Canucks ML +140, Sabres -1.5 and SF ML -105, I think, tonight. Doing well so far.
- Feb 18, 2010
- 2,062
- 16
i really like oregon. after seeing what cal did to ucla...
