***$$$-NT Sportsbook Thread vol.2- Props props props props props props... EVERYBODY!

[mr marcus]

Still don't trust our defense

 

[DeadsetAce]

Still don't trust our defense

yeah. expecting a LOT of long drives given up by the defense. i just hope they can hold the other teams to FGs once the field shrinks a bit.

 

[651akathepaul]

Rain and thunderstorms I hear?

 

[olx9o]

Challenger Tennis.
Albert Ramos-Vinola ML -340
Andrey Golubev -160

 

[super t1ght]

I'm going over 52.5 nfl tonight, what yall thinking
A lot of question marks on d/secondary both ways. I think pats will handle business but Ben will be airing it out and Brown will go off

 

[olx9o]

I'm going over 52.5 nfl tonight, what yall thinking
A lot of question marks on d/secondary both ways. I think pats will handle business but Ben will be airing it out and Brown will go off

Disclaimer: i dont really know football.
And since thats the case id pick a super safe bet (no bet is safe anyway)
I expect Brady and the Pats to win. Ill probably end up betting the Pats -3 points at -240.

But does anybody know how the recent lift of the suspension has had any effect on practice/ player morales/ or anything regarding the team?

 

[bhzmafia14]

I think most believe Brady and Co. will win. All numbers basically point to it. Whether they covering that -7 is another story and it all depends on their defense. I'm a firm believer in them scoring over their TT 29.5 as long as the weather is okay. I'll be interested to see how their secondary holds up against Big Ben, though. All 8 SB Nation analysts predict NE to win, 7 out of 8 CBS analysts predict a NE win, all 8 Foxsports analysts predict a NE win and 9 out of 10 ESPN analysts picked NE to win .

Brady is 43-1 at home against AFC teams since Nov. 13, 2006. So, one of the safer bets would be to bet on NE's ML depending on your BR. I may make a large play on the ML and a smaller play on the spread.

My head says 35-27 Patriots. If there is bad weather, I'll go with 24-14 Patriots.

 

[651akathepaul]

Steelers +7

 

[651akathepaul]

The first one to lose a bet on a missed PAT. *knocks on wood*

It's gonna be much more common now.

 

[olx9o]

Sounds like a smart play bhz.

651, any thoughts on why steelers would cover +7 in your opinion?

 

[bhzmafia14]

The only reason I can think of Pitt covering the spread is due to Patriots secondary being too weak. I just cannot see Pitt stopping NE's offense (bad weather or not). The bad weather will favor NE anyway because of their short passing game.

 

[tvobach]

The only reason I can think of Pitt covering the spread is due to Patriots secondary being too weak. I just cannot see Pitt stopping NE's offense (bad weather or not). The bad weather will favor NE anyway because of their short passing game.

Bingo. Pats secondary is weak. I think Pitt scores some points (same with NE obviously) but NE can never just put them away.

I like NE 34-31ish. So Pitt covers.

 

[bjm5295]

Feeling the Over 52. NE secondary is trash and PIT D isnt what it used to be with a new DC.

 

[bhzmafia14]

A little more information from Covers

- Pats have played 20 games in what hte official NFL game sheets define as rain, light rain, heavy rain and snow. During that span, Pats are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (includes a 45-7 win as a 7 point home fav over IND in the AFC Championship)

- Pat QB's have a completion % of 60.29% in rain/snow games with 28 TD's and 12 INT's.

- Of the 20 wet weather games, 17 have been played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. NE averaged 29.3 points per game in those home standings while giving up 13.4 points against (a difference of 15.9 points per game).

- Even in the three poor weather road games since 2003, the Patriots are thumping opponents by an average score of 37-12 and covered in all three.

Note: As far as finding an edge with the O/U, New England is 11-8-1 O/U in those 20 soaked games - the lone push coming in the AFC Championship game against IND. Those games have produced an average combined score of 43.7 points against an average total of 42.4 points.

 

[trueprada]

RJ Bell ‏
#NFL favs winning gms
-1 to -2.5 (52%)
-3 (59%)
-3.5 to -6.5 (67%)
-7 (75%)
-7.5 to -9.5 (78%)
-10 (79%)
-10.5 to -13.5 (85%)
 > -13.5 (92%)

 

[rook]

A little more information from Covers

- Pats have played 20 games in what hte official NFL game sheets define as rain, light rain, heavy rain and snow. During that span, Pats are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (includes a 45-7 win as a 7 point home fav over IND in the AFC Championship)

- Pat QB's have a completion % of 60.29% in rain/snow games with 28 TD's and 12 INT's.

- Of the 20 wet weather games, 17 have been played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. NE averaged 29.3 points per game in those home standings while giving up 13.4 points against (a difference of 15.9 points per game).

- Even in the three poor weather road games since 2003, the Patriots are thumping opponents by an average score of 37-12 and covered in all three.

Note: As far as finding an edge with the O/U, New England is 11-8-1 O/U in those 20 soaked games - the lone push coming in the AFC Championship game against IND. Those games have produced an average combined score of 43.7 points against an average total of 42.4 points.

This was all before deflate gate though..let's see if that really was the key tonight

 

[mr marcus]

 

A little more information from Covers

- Pats have played 20 games in what hte official NFL game sheets define as rain, light rain, heavy rain and snow. During that span, Pats are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (includes a 45-7 win as a 7 point home fav over IND in the AFC Championship)

- Pat QB's have a completion % of 60.29% in rain/snow games with 28 TD's and 12 INT's.

- Of the 20 wet weather games, 17 have been played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. NE averaged 29.3 points per game in those home standings while giving up 13.4 points against (a difference of 15.9 points per game).

- Even in the three poor weather road games since 2003, the Patriots are thumping opponents by an average score of 37-12 and covered in all three.

Note: As far as finding an edge with the O/U, New England is 11-8-1 O/U in those 20 soaked games - the lone push coming in the AFC Championship game against IND. Those games have produced an average combined score of 43.7 points against an average total of 42.4 points.

This was all before deflate gate though..let's see if that really was the key tonight

yea cause this game (win or lose) will answer that question 

you do know the 2nd half of the Colts game was with NFL approved balls right? As was the Super Bowl

and only 2 of the 12 were "under inflated"

 

[651akathepaul]

Sounds like a smart play bhz.

651, any thoughts on why steelers would cover +7 in your opinion?

Apologize for the delay. I'm just seeing this...


I think the public is all about NE. Defending champs, at home, pissed off about deflate gate, no Bryant/Bell for Pitt...Public perception isn't necessarily football, but over the years, I've learned to marry the two when making my picks and that on top of the fact that I still see Pittsburgh putting up 20+, makes me confident the Steelers cover. They still have Brown, Wheaton, RB's are capable, Ben still won't go down (Pats biggest defensive strength is front 7, so almost negated here) and they'll be able to throw allll over the ballpark on that secondary. Should be an entertaining game. Over is nice play as well, but I'm gonna roll with Pitt to start the year out.

 

[651akathepaul]

A little more information from Covers

- Pats have played 20 games in what hte official NFL game sheets define as rain, light rain, heavy rain and snow. During that span, Pats are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (includes a 45-7 win as a 7 point home fav over IND in the AFC Championship)

- Pat QB's have a completion % of 60.29% in rain/snow games with 28 TD's and 12 INT's.

- Of the 20 wet weather games, 17 have been played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. NE averaged 29.3 points per game in those home standings while giving up 13.4 points against (a difference of 15.9 points per game).

- Even in the three poor weather road games since 2003, the Patriots are thumping opponents by an average score of 37-12 and covered in all three.

Note: As far as finding an edge with the O/U, New England is 11-8-1 O/U in those 20 soaked games - the lone push coming in the AFC Championship game against IND. Those games have produced an average combined score of 43.7 points against an average total of 42.4 points.

Sometimes there's a thing as too much information. Not saying this can't be useful, but I think a lot of this goes out the window when you talk about the first football game of a new season. So many factors change, and while some factors remain the same, you're not always certain which of those factors do stay the same when you head into a new season.

 

[651akathepaul]

And suddenly, the under is looking good.

 

[rook]

 

A little more information from Covers

- Pats have played 20 games in what hte official NFL game sheets define as rain, light rain, heavy rain and snow. During that span, Pats are 17-3 SU and 16-4 ATS (includes a 45-7 win as a 7 point home fav over IND in the AFC Championship)


- Pat QB's have a completion % of 60.29% in rain/snow games with 28 TD's and 12 INT's.


- Of the 20 wet weather games, 17 have been played at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro. NE averaged 29.3 points per game in those home standings while giving up 13.4 points against (a difference of 15.9 points per game).


- Even in the three poor weather road games since 2003, the Patriots are thumping opponents by an average score of 37-12 and covered in all three.


Note: As far as finding an edge with the O/U, New England is 11-8-1 O/U in those 20 soaked games - the lone push coming in the AFC Championship game against IND. Those games have produced an average combined score of 43.7 points against an average total of 42.4 points.

This was all before deflate gate though..let's see if that really was the key tonight

yea cause this game (win or lose) will answer that question 

you do know the 2nd half of the Colts game was with NFL approved balls right? As was the Super Bowl


and only 2 of the 12 were "under inflated"

Went over your head man.

 

[mr marcus]

didn't sense sarcasm but I'll give you the benefit of doubt 

 

[651akathepaul]

Juss waitin' on Pittsburgh..Annnnyyy time now...

 

[D StaXX]

Back door cover
Got Pit +8
I love going on covers and reading the angry post after a backdoor.

 

[bhzmafia14]

Cashed in on the ML and @ that push. I guess no complaints since PIT left all kinds of points on the board.