Not in the very beginning when we were tracking it in China before it made the jump overseas. Sure there were definitely uncertainty, but at that time(January) it was to early to make any useful models other comparing it to other pandemics. I'm not talking around March or April, I'm talking in the very beginning of it all in February when I was personally tracking cases to see if we would get any in the Bay Area.
My dude, tracking pandemics have been done for generations. They need to know how it’s spread, where it’s coming from and that’s all the data points they need. As complicated as treatment is, the actually statistics for spread is simple. Government knew of everything back in December if not earlier. US didn’t shut down until March if you even want to call that a shut down.
sf.eater.com
Shouldn't be any higher than the overall positivity rate for tests, which is ~1.5% in NYC.
Well every virus is different, some are more virulent than others. On top of that, the only models to go off of is H1N1, SARS, Swine Flu, and Avian Flu, there hasn't been any other wide-spread event like this since the Spanish Flu. So sure, I don't doubt that people thought it would be bad, but I'm sure any projections presented that early were rough since there wasn't too much to go off of. ****, estimates made weeks ago had are deaths way higher and those were studies involving Stanford running simulations.
They estimated millions dead IF we did absolutely nothing. With all steps taken we still have hundreds of thousands dead. The biggest variable not taken to account is people fighting against all health mandates and intentionally going against them.
