I’m watching this all on with a keen eye. increased cases doesn’t mean more deaths automatically. Hospitalizations do matter but we’re hearing cases alone doubling or tripling. We have to look at the big picture. Can we be open 90% and have 15% more cases and survive?
Many states are 100% open now and they are doing okay. We may to balance it all out.
Arizona, Utah, North/South Carolina, and Texas have all seen a recent rise in hospitalizations. I mentioned a couple pages ago -- deaths will lag by a couple weeks, so like you're saying we need to watch to see how number of deaths look in these states later this month.
The key is really that R0 needs to go below 1. If we get 15% more infections every week (taking the worst case scenario), we'll be in a bad spot in the fall, unless we want to go back and forth between opening and closing every few weeks. Some states have plateaued -- that is ok if it's at a low level, but a plateau of a large % of cases isn't great either. Other states (much of the Northeast, for example) are still seeing a decline in numbers. Evidence is pointing towards masks being enough to get the R0 below 1. So it'll be interesting to see if states with stricter adherence to masks will do well even when reopened.
Anyway, just to reiterate your point, we care about # true infections, not necessarily # reported cases. Some states with a plateau in # cases but with a decline in deaths and hospitalizations probably have an R0 below 1 and are doing well.
Also, to clarify, no state is 100% open, afaik. If anyone knows of a state that has lifted all restrictions, please point them out. But I get your point, we need to find that right balance of reopening and vigilant human behavior to keep this under control.
www.khou.com
