- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
Hide Ya Wives, Hide Ya Kids: Worldwide Coronavirus Pandemic!
- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Mar 27, 2004
- 18,386
- 34,061
To expand on my previous post, I was thinking of the numbers and how this Memorial Day weekend could play out.
Some back-of-the-envelope numbers, assuming people are infectious for ~10 days and that we're undercounting by 5x (antibody tests in NYC estimated 10x, but it may be as low as 2x in well-tested areas, and close to 1x in places that do contact tracing): with 20k cases/day that we're seeing, that means ~1 million Americans are currently infectious (20k times 10 days times 5x). Or 1 in 300.
Now take the average beach town open this weekend. Let's say some fraction of infected Americans knowingly stayed home because they're symptomatic or had a recent sick contact. 1 in 300 are infected but perhaps only 1 in 500 who are out mingling this weekend. This isn't too bad for a small gathering of 10 people. But what about a beach town with a few thousand people?
Well at least 1 person is infected (likely more, but let's say even just one for now). They show up Friday and infect dozens the first night, if not hundreds, at bars, at the hotel, etc. This happens again Saturday and Sunday. By today, the newly infected people are spreading virus too. They drive home in packed cars. Nearly all will get infected.
They will blow off not feeling well as a hangover from their wild Memorial Day partying. They go visit their parents, grandparents, etc. over the next week. Suddenly one case is amplified 10000x, just in time for the Fourth of July.
edit: to keep things in perspective, we're probably going to get 500k new positive covid-19 cases in the month of June, and the true number will be 1 to 3 million due to undertesting. So a couple sparks in a couple beach towns of 10k is not going to change the big picture too much. But if it happens across 100 different tourist hotspots, then it's going to bump the numbers up a lot.
Some back-of-the-envelope numbers, assuming people are infectious for ~10 days and that we're undercounting by 5x (antibody tests in NYC estimated 10x, but it may be as low as 2x in well-tested areas, and close to 1x in places that do contact tracing): with 20k cases/day that we're seeing, that means ~1 million Americans are currently infectious (20k times 10 days times 5x). Or 1 in 300.
Now take the average beach town open this weekend. Let's say some fraction of infected Americans knowingly stayed home because they're symptomatic or had a recent sick contact. 1 in 300 are infected but perhaps only 1 in 500 who are out mingling this weekend. This isn't too bad for a small gathering of 10 people. But what about a beach town with a few thousand people?
Well at least 1 person is infected (likely more, but let's say even just one for now). They show up Friday and infect dozens the first night, if not hundreds, at bars, at the hotel, etc. This happens again Saturday and Sunday. By today, the newly infected people are spreading virus too. They drive home in packed cars. Nearly all will get infected.
They will blow off not feeling well as a hangover from their wild Memorial Day partying. They go visit their parents, grandparents, etc. over the next week. Suddenly one case is amplified 10000x, just in time for the Fourth of July.
edit: to keep things in perspective, we're probably going to get 500k new positive covid-19 cases in the month of June, and the true number will be 1 to 3 million due to undertesting. So a couple sparks in a couple beach towns of 10k is not going to change the big picture too much. But if it happens across 100 different tourist hotspots, then it's going to bump the numbers up a lot.
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- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Jan 30, 2007
- 28,535
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- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
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- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Dec 3, 2009
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Drive to Times Square for the first time since the shutdown, place is unrecognizable
- Aug 21, 2010
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- Jul 27, 2013
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*All the fake data from Japan...they should be banned as well
- Jul 1, 2016
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as someone with an American passport, I fear I won´t be able to get off this side of the planet for years.
- Feb 22, 2012
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73 degrees is scorching to them? Man this virus makes me realize how miserable East Coasters and Northern Europeans must be if they get so excited and reckless over normal weather
- Feb 5, 2011
- 4,292
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Unrecognizable from pre covid or peak covid?
everysingletime
formerly amel223
- Apr 4, 2006
- 42,963
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- Jul 22, 2015
- 3,043
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Googled "Times Square right now" and it looks absolutely wonderfully quiet.
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- Feb 22, 2012
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- 12,147
my biggest concern too. These idiots making it hard to even escape from here; think of it from a foreign perspective. Would you really want Americans coming through after seeing all this wild nonsense in the news? I hate that I’m tied to a passport that I have zero emotional connection to.
My girlfriend has an Indonesian passport and was like “now you’ll know what we feel like” (it’s ridiculously difficult for non wealthy Indonesians to travel to the US)
- Jul 27, 2013
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- Jul 22, 2015
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Who could have foreseen this?!?!!
- May 29, 2016
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my biggest concern too. These idiots making it hard to even escape from here; think of it from a foreign perspective. Would you really want Americans coming through after seeing all this wild nonsense in the news? I hate that I’m tied to a passport that I have zero emotional connection to.
My girlfriend has an Indonesian passport and was like “now you’ll know what we feel like” (it’s ridiculously difficult for non wealthy Indonesians to travel to the US)
Let’s be Real here and have a reasonable discussion.
What Countries in the world, even right now, is preventing your visit, let alone immigration to?
Since you are so over burdened and outraged by the blue passport, I hope you find peace of mind in different setting soon. Sincerely wish you and girlfriend the best.
Have had couple extended Family members and Friends over the decades do the same. Each situation is unique and Personal.
- Jul 1, 2016
- 5,891
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my biggest concern too. These idiots making it hard to even escape from here; think of it from a foreign perspective. Would you really want Americans coming through after seeing all this wild nonsense in the news? I hate that I’m tied to a passport that I have zero emotional connection to.
My girlfriend has an Indonesian passport and was like “now you’ll know what we feel like” (it’s ridiculously difficult for non wealthy Indonesians to travel to the US)
damn, never thought about it that way.
most passports in the world are just decorative, a lot of countries will tell you to kick rocks off rip.
you can basically take your Syrian passport and shove it in your exhaust port. hell, your Mexican passport.
all because you were born in a place. wow.
- Jul 27, 2013
- 12,092
- 14,916
- Jul 1, 2016
- 5,891
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Let’s be Real here and have a reasonable discussion.
What Countries in the world, even right now, is preventing your visit, let alone immigration to?
Since you are so over burdened and outraged by the blue passport, I hope you find peace of mind in different setting soon. Sincerely wish you and girlfriend the best.
Have had couple extended Family members and Friends over the decades do the same. Each situation is unique and Personal.
okay lemme take my joke helmet all the way off, let´s have an actual discussion on this.
it is fair to recognize the inherent privilege an American passport provides at this precise moment in time.
we Yanks can walk off a plane and into damn near any set of borders on Earth for the sole reason that we were fortunate enough to be born in the United States of America and had about 200 bucks at some point.
that sentence does not apply to most of the world, and I am fortunate to be able to type it.
still, with developments such as Australia and New Zealand working to seal EVERYBODY out for the foreseeable future and the USA having 1/3 of the world´s cases, you can kinda put the puzzle pieces together and see that Americans might be having a difficult time skipping freely around the world in the near future.
idk if I would go so far as to go stateless in the absence of a better option tho.
- Aug 24, 2017
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