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- Dec 26, 2004
Originally Posted by holdenmichael
Coupled with the fact that some people don't want to literally have to buy a new HDTV to fully enjoy the experience, then replace the their current DVD library with Blu-Ray discs. HD is a significant jump from regular DVD, in my opinion. However, it pales in comparison to the jump between VHS and DVD. On top of that, Blu-Ray was in a 2-3 year battle with HD-DVD and went through codec changes that were noted in this thread by anoter poster. Now, it has to deal with the download market which will not go away. All of these things have led to a muddled launch and slow emergence of Blu-Ray and could cause the studios to become disinterested in the format much more quickly than first anticipated. I think Blu-Ray currently gets something like 12% of new "DVD" sales.
How many people are purchasing CRT TVs these days? I believe I saw two or three the last time I went to Best Buy. Anyone buying a TV today, the past year or two in fact, is buying an HDTV. People are also buying these for broadcast HDTV and hi-def gaming anyway so they'll already be in homes when people begin their transition to Blu-ray.
I doubt Blu-ray will fail due to a lack of interest from studios or people. That the transition didn't happen in a year or two doesn't mean that it has gone poorly. As someone else stated, that's how the transition usually goes. It's rarely smooth, fast or without competition from a competing format.
An important factor is obviously the cost of BD players. To highlight that point, I "rented" one (Samsung BDP1500) for 30 days, but didn't buy it or any other model because the least expensive model cost $400. Fast forward five months and I can buy an Insignia BD player for $170 (not including coupons, sales, bundled purchasing etc.) or the same model I tried out five months ago for $200 online or $300 in a brick and mortar store. A lot of the updates being made to BD players are to appeal to audio- and videophiles so I can purchase an older model that I know has been updated (Samsung BDP1500) and be fine. There are plenty of brand name $200 options for me out there now and prices are only going to continue to do down.
Finally, the Blu-ray movies themselves. When I thought about purchasing a BD player I didn't even consider replacing the DVDs I already owned because I knew that they'd look good enough for the moment and I could "update" later when the prices went down. I was going to buy new releases and rent (Netflix) most of the hi-def content I was going to see. There's no download alternative to Blu-ray unless I go with Apple TV and from one comparison I've seen, Blu-ray is still better than the HD content Apple has to offer.
We're obviously still $150-200 dollars away on the price of players and $10-20 away on movies before Blu-ray is everywhere, but I'm sure that'll happen soon enough.
Now that some Blu-ray movies are being bundled with digital copies, I'm much closer to making the jump myself. I'd love to have a digital copy (w/o paying extra) that I could transfer between computers, ipods, and my phone, but I can wait for that. I'm sure that I'll make the jump sometime after the holidays.
I was refering to people aren't currently in the market for a TV. But I guess "Invention is the mother of necessity."
You raise some good points. As did this guy:
bill gates also said that 64 kb of ram is the most you'll ever need in a computer or something like that. i think the black friday sales really helped blu ray out as far as adoption goes. But as a movie junkie, I can never see why people think downloads will take over. theres some gratification in having a tangible library/collection that just doesnt come with downloads. and did anyone ever think of the whole letting my friend borrow a dvd or taking this dvd to a friends house to watch tonight? not gonn happen if i have a set top-box with all my downloaded movies that i have to unplug every time just to go somewhere else. tangible media ftw
It's hard to know what will happen obviously, but I could imagine something like a DVD "special edition set", sans the disc beingthe tangible part of the transaction if the consumer wants to go that route. In the "set" a download code would be included. The whole "lendinga movie to a friend" thing will be exactly why studios would push for something like this. Studios will be able to get their product directly to consumersminus shipping costs, etc. I think it will be years and years down the road, I was just giving the other side of the argument. I won't be putting togethera HD theater for about another year or so. By then, I should be able to see whether or not Blu Ray will have a market stronghold for a while. They better have"Willow" and "The Last Dragon" on BD by then.